| I've been thinking a lot about the announcement today of the new Independent Democratic caucus made up of Jeff Klein, Diane Savino, David Valesky, and David Carlucci. There are a lot of good pieces on the scenario but if you want to get the best perspective, you have to watch this video with the four "anti-amigos" and Liz Benjamin. It's a great viewing that explains what's going on here.
In brief:
1) This is about policy, not politics
2) They're still Democrats and they believe in Democrats, they just don't believe in the way the Senate Democrats were doing business
3) They strongly support the Cuomo agenda
4) They want the Democrats to take back the caucus but they want to earn that by supporting the right policies instead of winning the political battle.
Analysis over the fold. |
| One point that Liz touched upon that I think is quite valid is the question of how this all resolves itself if the Democrats win back the Senate Majority in the near future. The major risk here for these four Democrats (pretty good Democrats too) is that if the Majority is won back with individuals loyal to John Sampson, then these four are going to be left out in the wilderness. That's a legitimate concern and you have to sort of admire the courage of the four of them to get stuck as an unnoticed minority caught between Republicans and Sampson Democrats.
But it's hard to actually imagine that happening unless the Senate map changes quite radically. Sampson support is generally going to come from New York City, as his support tends to be from minority representatives and some progressives. Those votes are pretty tapped out when you get out of New York City, except for perhaps the Buffalo seat now occupied by Mark Grisanti. So I can't imagine a scenario where John Sampson could get a majority of supporters without the Independent Democratic support, i.e. 36 seats, unless the Senate map next year adds multiple urban seats. Fat chance with Republicans in charge.
Instead, what you have now is an alternative power source that can be kingmaker. I wouldn't be surprised if these four are joined by others as time goes by. Tim Kennedy would be a good target, as would Tony Avella (although Avella is a bit closer to Sampson on a personal basis). And if guys like Mike Kaplowitz or Craig Johnson are part of taking back the majority in 2012, you can bet that they're going to end up a whole lot more loyal to Jeff Klein than John Sampson.
What I can't really figure out is how this resolves itself. I find it hard to believe that Jeff Klein will ever be Majority Leader after this move. Senate Democrats have shown themselves to be quite petty and even if John Sampson isn't the future Majority Leader, none of his loyalists will support a Klein-led conference. Similarly I don't see the Independent Democrats, potentially increasing in numbers over time, throwing their support behind Sampson.
That leaves us with a scenario where the groundwork is being laid for either a change in personnel and some retirements in the NYC delegation or a compromise Caucus Leader. This bodes well for three people in particular: Mike Gianaris, Jose Peralta, and Gustavo Rivera. Now yes, all of them are young guys with little experience in the Senate. But they are all fairly progressive, NYC types that would be possibly acceptable to Sampson loyalists, and also possibly acceptable to the Independent Democrats group. While I'd love to see Liz Krueger or Dan Squadron fill this role, I think Krueger is too polarizing in the caucus and Squadron is too much of a policy wonk for a leadership role (but believe me, that's not an insult in my book).
In the short term, this is great news for the Cuomo agenda. It signals that even someone like Diane Savino, one of the strongest public sector union allies in the state, is willing to take on public pension benefits as an issue (for better or for worse). It means that Skelos will have some bipartisan cover for cutting taxes and slashing spending. As a progressive, this makes me nervous. But on the other hand, it does give me some hope. It's true that Skelos doesn't need any of these four votes, but with the Cuomo "above politics" message in the State of the State, it might be very alluring for Skelos to get these four on board. And I will tell you this; I would much rather have Jeff Klein and Diane Savino in the room, helping make the decisions, than leaving it up to Skelos and his ilk.
If this turns out as a way to keep Democratic values relevant to the governance of the State Senate, then in 2 years we will have a debt of gratitude to Klein, Savino, Valesky, and Carlucci. If it becomes a way to lend bipartisan cover to regressive policies that hurt the working class, then this will be a day we'll look back on regret.
One way or the other, it's damn good political entertainment. |
