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NY-26: Who the heck are these people?

by: Adama D. Brown

Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 15:05:50 PM EST


Okay, with the last 24 hours being as crazy as they have been, a lot of people haven't been able to keep up with the rapid developments. Dozens of names have been batted around, and many people probably don't know the scoop on who they are.

With reasonably good intelligence as to who is "out," we know that the last three people standing on the field at the moment are Kathy Hochul, Kathy Konst, and Jon Powers. None of them have actually expressed an intent to do it, but none of them have bowed out yet, either, and there's reason to believe in interest from all of them.

I must also stress that this being a Republican leaning district, all of these candidates will likely lean to the middle. Not everyone may like that, but it's what's right for the district.

So without further adieu, I present you the short biography round up.

Kathy Hochul is the current Erie County Clerk. She's well liked in Erie County, has good name recognition there, but much lower name recognition in the rest of the district. She has a generally reformist attitude as far as it goes, but she has no record legislatively. I couldn't tell you where she would come down on any federal issues. She's also demonstrated little interest in reaching out outside of Erie County. Call her pretty much an unknown quantity as far as performance in the rural areas of the district, and signature issues.

Kathy Konst is the current Erie County Commissioner of Environment and Planning, and former Erie County Legislator for District 5. She ran for the State Senate in 2008, and came closer than anyone else ever before to bumping off Dale Volker, despite being outspent 29 to 1. (No, that's not a typo.) She's charismatic, and has a great reform track record, such as trying to abolish the Erie County Water Authority, which is a massive bastion of pork and patronage. She's a moderate Democrat, but with strong reformist cred, leaning more towards a fiscal responsibility angle than social conservatism. I suspect in higher office she'd lean a little to the left socially, but not much. She gets a lot of crap for otherwise irrelevant internal Erie County politics, such as taking a job working for the current Republican county administration. Her daughter runs a left-wing social activism non-profit group in LA called Alliance Hollywood.

Jon Powers was the endorsed Democratic candidate for this seat in 2008, and is currently a Special Advisor on Energy to the Department of Defense. He's an Iraq War vet, Baghdad 2003-2004, after which he worked on trying to help war orphans. He tried to run for this seat starting way back in 2007, but the millionaire industrialist who also wanted it went massively negative in the primary, and the fallout destroyed them both, letting Alice Kryzan slip through. Powers then took a job with the Truman National Security Project, partly in an effort to get off the Working Families Party ballot line and not split the vote, and he's been in Washington DC ever since. Jon's a good guy, very friendly, very likable. He's socially moderate, pro-choice, and has some very good creds on energy independence. He took a lot of undeserved flak in the 2008 primary, mostly in the form of heavy smear ads and whisper campaigns from Jack Davis, the aforementioned millionaire industrialist.

My disclaimer: I count both Kathy Konst and Jon Powers among my friends, and I think that they're both very dedicated to their issues and public service, and either of them would make a fine representative for the 26th District. I respect Kathy Hochul for her work in Erie County and her popularity there.

Adama D. Brown :: NY-26: Who the heck are these people?
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Speculation (4.00 / 1)
As to who will run on the Democratic side is good but with this district leaning Republican we should seriously consider who they will support.  Will it be a moderate or will the Tea Party dominate?  Any ideas?

Good question. (4.00 / 1)
I know that the Tea Party around here has been less than enthusiastic about Chris Lee, for sure. (Why, I can't imagine, since he was the perfect Republican stuffed shirt.) That could turn into something if the Reps pick another insiderish candidate, which is almost certain. I wouldn't expect an actual third-party run or anything that dramatic, but turnout could be an issue.

While western New York has it's healthy share of Tea Party types, they're not overall as strong as you might see in other areas. They'll show up and protest now and then, but for instance the last Democratic Rural Conference in Niagara Falls--which had Governor Paterson, AG and future governor Cuomo, both Senators, and a number of State Senators--only managed to draw out about 30 or so Tea Party protesters.

When we had independent ballot line for the Tea Party in the 59th State Senate District in 2010, they only garnered about 10% of the vote, despite a very active grassroots campaign. That's substantial, but it's not enough to force an NY-23 type situation... unless of course somebody like Sarah Palin decides to take an undue interest.  


[ Parent ]
They hate him (4.00 / 1)
because he voted for SCHIP.

Because, you know, heaven forbid children have health care.


[ Parent ]
Also, he donated money to the NY-23 Republican candidate. (0.00 / 0)
The pro-choice, pro-gay-marriage Republican, as opposed to the Tea Partier who lost the election for them.

They never really forgave him for that.  


[ Parent ]
The county chairs are not (0.00 / 0)
tea partiers, yet.

The county chairs will nominate Maziarz or Corwin, and the tea partiers will deal with that.

Tea partiers are right-wing Republicans who will work and vote for the establishment Republican candidate, because they are essentially Becktards who hate Obama.  


[ Parent ]
I doubt it. (0.00 / 0)
His is one of the few names I haven't heard bounced around on the Rep side. If I HAD to choose, I right now guess at Maziarz as their candidate. He's got cred, an established constituency, and they can replace him in the state senate without too much risk of a Democrat getting elected in his spot should he win.  

[ Parent ]
I only know Powers, (0.00 / 0)
met him at Netroots Nation in Austin, and was quite impressed.

Smart, articulate, charismatic, etc. -- too bad he got screwed in 2008, he could've won.


Jon is a really good guy. (4.00 / 1)
He's smart, friendly, charismatic, and has a good way with people. The 2008 election was a big disappointment to all of us.  

[ Parent ]
You all will probably never know the whole backstory (4.00 / 1)
But suffice it to say he screwed himself. On two different occasions he (or his campaign team) had the opportunity to prevent a Davis campaign and did not, but even setting that aside, if he had raised more money earlier and/or stayed above board, he would have won.

[ Parent ]
I know that he talked with Jack early on to try and get him on board. (0.00 / 0)
He said as much at one of the house parties I attended around the beginning of 2008: that he was actively talking to Davis, and trying to basically talk Jack into taking a seat at the table. He didn't explicitly say that he was trying to placate Davis, but... well, Jack should have taken the deal, frankly. If he had, he'd have been the loudest voice on trade, his signature issue, whispering in the ear of Congressman Jon Powers for the last two years.

I won't deny that getting into a fight with Davis cost Jon the election, although I can't exactly fault him for trying to punch back when Davis was pummeling him. It's a natural and obvious thing to do, even if engaging with the nonsense did hurt him. His people didn't think they could shrug it off.

Nevertheless, Jon remains a good guy. He's smart, he cares about the area, and he wants to keep serving the public. I'm sure he'll do that whether he runs or not.  


[ Parent ]
Kathy Hochul (4.00 / 1)
This one please.

She took 80% of Erie County in her 2009 reelection. 80%. Again, 80%.

EIGHTY.

She's smart, dedicated, committed, a real reformer, well likes, good at saving taxpayers money with a long history to prove it (her department is Income-Positive for the county AND she's cut the payroll by like 40% while she's been there).

Her husband is US Attorney Bill Hochul.

Amherst Councilman Mark Manna is also a realistic candidate, Y'all would LOVE him, he organized against Walmart as a career. The only problem would be giving up the Democrats only seat on the Amherst Town Board.


The thing about Hochul is, she's never struck me as at all ambitious. (0.00 / 0)
At the 2010 Democratic Rural Convention, literally as I was on the way out to ride home I stopped to give her my card, and asked her to get in touch with me, because I'd like to talk to her about a few things. What I didn't mention to her at the time, surrounded by other people as we were, was that I was going to ask her if she was interested in being a potential candidate for the 26th at some future date. Although at that time I was looking ahead to 2012 and a potentially redrawn district which would include more of Erie County.

However, Hochul has never shown any interest in elected office outside of Erie County. She is definitely massively popular there, but she's never nosed outside of her turf. Might be that she's never had interest in higher office before, but the fact is that to win this district you need to at least compete in the rural counties. Davis and Kryzan both proved that you can win the big three and still get thumped. I don't know how that math works out. A friend of mine showed me the numbers for her 2010 reelect in EC towns within the 26th, which is definitely good. She destroyed the other guy in Amherst and Lancaster, and edged out narrower but solid victories in Clarence and Newstead.

I don't know Mark Manna from a hill of beans, to be honest. I can't remember ever even hearing his name before.  


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't expect you to have (0.00 / 0)
That's part of what makes him a good candidate: He's still in his first term as a public official.

[ Parent ]
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