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NY-26: Are We About to See A Repeat of NY-23?

by: BingChester

Mon Feb 21, 2011 at 14:58:41 PM EST

There is a growing chance that the ongoing battle of Republicans versus conservatives could play out in the special election in NY-26. Today's story over at Liz Benjamin's always excellent Capital Tonight points out that frontrunner Jane Corwin's moderate stance on abortion could rankle conservatives and others in the area.

That first answer [supporting abortion rights] would certainly not sit well with pro-life conservatives, although it didn't stop the state Conservative Party from endorsing Corwin in the past.
...
Some WNY Tea Partiers appear poised to go their own way in NY-26. Sources say it's possible that two of the eight candidates interviewed by the GOP leaders yesterday - Jack Davis and David Bellavia - could try to launch independent candidacies if they don't get the official nod.

Sadly the DCCC continues to be distressingly quiet about Democratic prospects here. That needs to change now. The potential of a three-way race in a special election in upstate New York should be closely watched by all of us. Yes, NY-26 is more conservative in some ways than NY-23. But we have a legitimate shot at a pick-up here and we can't let that opportunity go without notice. Time to get in the game.

BingChester :: NY-26: Are We About to See A Repeat of NY-23?

Tags: NY-26, Scozzafava, Corwin, GOP, Conservative, abortion, (All Tags)

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NY-26: Are We About to See A Repeat of NY-23? | 8 comments

Mike Long does not care (4.00 / 1)

that much about abortion, since he cares most of all about getting Republican patronage jobs for his family and friends, and has endorsed lots of GOP abortion moderates over the years to that end.

Corwin is a lock for the Conservative nomination, but Davis with his millions and Bellavia with his tea party/veteran support can easily get an independent line.

Hopefully, they will both go for it.

Davis is more likely to do so, Bellavia less so because he wants to have a political future.

by: devtob @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 00:53:31 AM UTC

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Bellavia doesn't really have a lot to lose, I think. (4.00 / 2)

If he ever tries to run mainstream again, he's going to be faced with the YouTube clips of him saying about President Obama, "You can keep your Tiger Woods." Overt racists may get the Republican nomination for Congress in places like Oklahoma, Nevada, even Ohio, but New York is a bit different. Virtually Bellavia's only chance is running with Tea Party types behind him, and here in WNY, those groups are NOT strong enough to swing a Republican primary.

That said, a third party ballot line is not a guarantee of a win for our side.

by: Adama D. Brown @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 03:42:02 AM UTC

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Corwin is no longer the front-runner, she's now the GOP nominee. (4.00 / 1)

As for the DCCC, I can't speak for them, but I do know that some of their associated firms are polling the district to try and determine winability.

by: Adama D. Brown @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 03:43:28 AM UTC

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Winability... (4.00 / 1)

...be damned. Will somebody out there just go for it already?

by: Soundpolitic @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 07:57:01 AM UTC

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We've had a couple people interested who haven't declined yet. (4.00 / 1)

The way the DCCC moves is going have a big impact on who gets the prize, and I don't think they're going to move until they get some data to tell them what's what.

The bottom line is that this district needs the DCCC in a big way, as there are no Democratic self-funders here, and the fundraising potential out of Buffalo and Rochester is limited.

by: Adama D. Brown @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 19:42:25 PM UTC

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The DCCC (0.00 / 0)

Is run by a bunch of A$$ HOLES

by: ROSALIE907 @ Wed Feb 23, 2011 at 02:29:11 AM UTC

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The DCCC's $$$ (0.00 / 0)

is the difference between a Corwin win by 20 and a race that we can compete in.

A fantastic ground game doesn't make a lick of difference if Corwin outspends the Dem 20-1 on TV.

by: Amherst Guy @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 05:02:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps we should give the Chairs time to build coalitions, (4.00 / 2)

interview candidates, re-interview good candidates, make reasoned assessments of the breadth and depth of potential support, and choose a candidate in a timely manner. We don't even know when the Governor might set a date. The Chairs weren't elected because they run willy-nilly toward the first fired shot. Recent history shows that this process works very well in rural New York in special elections.

by: janed @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 20:56:55 PM UTC

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NY-26: Are We About to See A Repeat of NY-23? | 8 comments

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