Redistricting: the Movie

Great movie (4.00 / 1)

I saw it when the New Kings Dems hosted it a month or two ago.

Definitely worth watching if you're new to redistricting nerdiness, although if you're a complete redistricting nerd (i.e. reading Swing State Project daily) it's a bit less informative.

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by: thebrooklynpolitics @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 22:51:17 PM UTC

It's worth seeing (4.00 / 1)

I've seen it twice, and enjoyed it both times.

The politics of the issue are very simple at this point: If Governor Cuomo sticks to his promise to veto any plan that isn't independently drawn, we'll have independent redistricting; if he doesn't, we won't.

It would take 10 Democratic votes in the Senate to override a veto, and it's a good bet that that number is 10 more than they would get. Without a plan in place by early next year, we'll end up with district lines drawn by a court-appointed "special master." That would be the worst possible outcome from Senate Republicans' perspective; even a bipartisan commission on the Iowa or Arizona models would allow Dean Skelos to have at least one ally in the room. If Senator Skelos is convinced that there's no wiggle room, he'll have no choice but to cave in.

On the other hand, if the governor gives in even a little, there's almost no chance that Speaker Silver will push for any reform.

So go see the movie because it's good. But don't lose sight of where the real battleground is for New York -- it's all with Governor Cuomo.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 02:43:20 AM UTC

Cuomo has all the leverage (0.00 / 0)

because if they don;t agree, a court-appointed special master will draw the lines, which none of the legislators want.  He just has to hold firm.  

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by: Roatti @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 07:09:20 AM UTC

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Not necessarily (0.00 / 0)

You could also end up with the Court acquiescing to the legislature's plan, especially if the Assembly and Senate pass it and it is rational within traditional redistricting principles.  I don't personally put a lot of stock into the idea that a court will be thrilled to get into the business of drawing maps.

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by: BingChester @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 18:00:58 PM UTC

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Courts don't have much choice (0.00 / 0)

We are required to redistrict, and since some NY counties are still under the Voting Rights Act we must redistrict in time for the DoJ to sign off on it. I strongly doubt any court would act this year, but if we get into 2012 without any movement toward a plan then look for someone to ask a court to set an "or else" deadline date.

As far as who could file a lawsuit, it seems to me that anyone in any area where population increased faster than the state's population as a whole would have standing under "one person, one vote." Anyone in these areas would be able to claim that the value of his/her vote would be diminished without redistricting.

Ideally, one downstate Democrat and one upstate Republican could combine forces. The Democrat could claim that his/her current Senate district exceeds the state's maximum population; the Republican could say the same about his/her Assembly seat.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 20:56:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think there's a little more gray area than that (0.00 / 0)

Cuomo, I think, has pledged to veto any plan that has excessive gerrymandering, but he has not pledged to veto any non-independent plan.

So the legislature just has to try and draw a plan that won't be so ridiculous as to create a black mark on Cuomo's permanent record for signing.

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by: thebrooklynpolitics @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 15:25:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]