I can't say I really saw this one coming. Given a number of factors - nature of the district and the fact that Dems gave Jane Corwin a month head start among them - I simply didn't believe that this was going to be a terribly competitive race. It would appear this assumption was incorrect. A new Siena poll out this morning shows a much tighter race than was expected until quite recently. (Thanks, Paul Ryan!)
In the special election for the 26th Congressional District seat, Republican Jane Corwin currently has a small lead, with the support of 36 percent of voters. Democrat Kathy Hochul is supported by 31 percent, and independent Jack Davis, running on the Tea Party line, has the support of 23 percent of voters, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely 26th CD voters released today.
Voters identified the federal budget deficit and jobs as the two most important issues they want their new Representative working on in Washington. Voters strongly support (58-36 percent) repealing the recently enacted federal health care legislation. They strongly oppose cutting Medicare and Social Security benefits to help close the deficit (59-38 percent), however, they strongly support increasing personal income tax rates for the wealthiest Americans (62-35 percent), and they are divided (48-47 percent) on increasing corporate taxes.
"Republican Corwin holds a narrow five-point lead over Democrat Hochul, with independent Davis garnering nearly one-quarter of the vote. In a district with a seven-point edge for Republicans among enrolled voters and years of Republican representation, Corwin's support lags behind Republican enrollment, while Hochul' s nearly matches Democratic enrollment," said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
"The two major party candidates run virtually even in Erie County, with Corwin leading the rest of the district. Corwin leads Hochul by 10 points among men; they are virtually tied with women. Corwin leads by 14 points among voters under 55, while Hochul has a slim three-point lead among those voters 55 and older. Hochul has a 20-point lead in union households, while non-union households favor Corwin by 15 points," Greenberg said.
"Voters view both Corwin and Hochul favorably by 44-31 percent margins, and on Davis, the most known candidate, voters split 42-41 percent," Greenberg said. "Not surprisingly, Hochul is viewed favorably by Democrats and independents, and unfavorably by Republicans, while Corwin is viewed favorably by Republicans and independents, and unfavorably by Democrats. Davis is also viewed favorably by Republicans and independents - more so by Republicans - and unfavorably by Democrats."
My two top line takeaways are simply 1: Hey, Kathy Hochul is in this thing and 2. Crazy ass racist nutbag and Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Teatard Jack Davis is not only polling in double digits, but is pulling a whopping 23%. Though I think the latter says something profoundly distressing about us as a culture, it's probably less surprising when you consider that he's been running for the seat on one line or another many years now and has pledged to spend $3 million of his own money on this current campaign. That's a lot of cash, especially considering all the money he blew on his numerous precious campaigns, for a seat that may not exist after next year. That said, he's a nutter. Crazy is as crazy does.
It's also interesting to note that Hochul is running essentially even with a 1 point lead in Erie County, the center of gravity of the entire district. She also has a 20 point lead in union households.
So, why is this race as close as this poll would seem to suggest? Honestly, I think it's the Paul Ryan/GOP budget plan that would effectively kill Medicare to finance further tax cuts for the most wealthy people in the nation. The poll clearly shows that while the federal budget deficit is a top concern for voters in the 26th, those same folks are also saying "hands off" Medicare and Social Security. Oh, and feel free to tax rich folks while you're at it. I short, GOP overreach and the Ryan plan have made this race competitive over the last few weeks.
The Hochul campaign is making this the issue as well, as evidenced by this recent TV spot:
Voters identified the federal budget deficit and jobs as the two most important issues they want their new Representative working on in Washington. Voters strongly support (58-36 percent) repealing the recently enacted federal health care legislation. They strongly oppose cutting Medicare and Social Security benefits to help close the deficit (59-38 percent), however, they strongly support increasing personal income tax rates for the wealthiest Americans (62-35 percent), and they are divided (48-47 percent) on increasing corporate taxes.
