| New York 26 is open for a special election due to the bad behavior of former Republican Congressman Chris Lee (R-Craigslist). Before him the seat was held by Tom Reynolds who got caught up in the coverup of the Mark Foley congressional page scandal. This is one of 2 New York districts that did not flip to Democrats during the wave years of 2006 and 2008 though it was close in 2006 with Reynolds defeating Davis 52%-48%. A difference of just over 8,000 votes. In 2008 Davis helped destroy Democrats chances at taking the seat enabling Lee to win. In 2010 Democrats placed a name on the ballot but did not challenge the seat.
The district covers all of Genesee, Livingston, Wyoming counties and parts of Erie, Monroe, Niagara, and Orleans. About one third of the voting population (143,491) is in Erie County, home to both Democratic and Republican candidates. Monroe County (97,561) followed by Niagara (74,495) are the next largest voting populations with the much smaller Livingston (39,826), Genesee (36,226), Wyoming (24,861) and Orleans (19,465) counties making up the rest of the district.
There are 170,503 Republicans, 143,160 Democrats, 89,494 unaffiliated, and the usual smattering of third party voters in the district.
This is a Republican friendly district. As with virtually all upstate New York districts the path to victory for Democrats is to maximize the Democratic vote while capturing the bulk of the unaffiliated voters all while hopefully seeing a depressed Republican turn-out and stealing the few remaining moderate Republicans for the Democratic candidate.
The Siena Press Release PDF and crosstabs show both the difficult nature of the district and the path to victory.
Voters identified the federal budget deficit and jobs as the two most important issues they want their new Representative working on in Washington. Voters strongly support (58-36 percent) repealing the recently-enacted federal health care legislation. They strongly oppose cutting Medicare and Social Security benefits to help close the deficit (59-38 percent), however, they strongly support increasing personal income tax rates for the wealthiest Americans (62-35 percent), and they are divided (48-47 percent) on increasing corporate taxes.
The district sees New York on the wrong track (36%-57%) and the United States overwhelmingly on the wrong track (20%-75%). It dislikes President Obama 39%-57% and Nancy Pelosi 25%-67% while liking John Boehner 45%-34% and Governor Andrew Cuomo 72%-20%.
Both Republican Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul are seen favorably 44%-31% while former Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Tea Party candidate Davis is viewed evenly at 42%-41%.
Not surprisingly a large portion of the electorate has locked in on their candidates with 48% of voters saying they are absolutely certain and will not change their mind. For Corwin this number drops to 44% while for Kathy Hochul it rises to 56% and for Davis it is at 46%.
42% of Corwin voters are fairly certain but might change their mind while another 12% are not very certain at all.
43% of Davis voters are fairly certain but might change their mind with another 10% not certain at all.
While only 36% of Hochul's voters are in the fairly certain and only 6% in the not very certain category.
In other words Hochul's support is strong while significant portions of both Corwin and Davis voters can be convinced to switch.
Who are these people? And how do you convince them to vote Democratic?
"On most fiscal issues..." 53% support Boehner and the Republicans while only 36% support Obama and the Democrats. Corwin voters support Republicans at 86% while Hochul voters support Democrats (82%). Davis voters support Republicans at 66%. However, 11% of Hochul voters support Republicans while 21% of Davis voters support Democrats. At the party level 17% of Democrats support Boehner and the Republicans along with 31% of independent/Other voters supporting Democrats.
Union households are split at 47% supporting Democrats and 44% supporting Republicans "On most fiscal issues facing the country...."
Union households support repeal of healthcare at 48% while 46% oppose. 32% of Democrats favor repealing the healthcare law while 28% of Davis voters and 15% of Corwin voters oppose.
Union households at 32% are one of the only demographics listing Jobs as the highest priority. The others are Democrats (26%) and Hochul supporters (33%) while most other demographics list the deficit first and jobs second. 27% of union households list the deficit first.
Union households oppose cutting Medicare and Social Security 61%-36%. Democrats oppose 80%-18%. Davis voters oppose 58%-40% while Corwin voters support cuts weakly at 55%-40%. The district overall opposes cuts 59%-38%.
Union households support raising taxes on those making over 250k 72%-25%. The district overall supports raising taxes 62%-35%. Corwin supporters oppose it 60%-38% while Davis voters support it 65%-32%. Hochul voters are wildly in favor 91%-8%.
Raising taxes on corporations breaks even in the district at 48% in favor and 47% opposed. Union households are at 59%-36%; Hochul voters 75%-23%: Democrats 65%-33%: Davis voters 48%-47% while even 29% of Corwin voters favor it.
On the candidates themselves...
12% of Democrats favor the Republican Corwin while another 20% support Davis and 62% stay home with Kathy Hochul. 5% don't know/no opinion.
Only 56% of Republicans support the Republican candidate Corwin while 10% support Hochul and 24% support Davis. 11% fall in the the don't know category.
Independent/other voters are fairly well split with 34% support for the republican; 27% for Davis and 26% for the Democrat Kathy Hochul.
These numbers change dramatically when asked "Who do you think will win?"
46% of the district think the Republican will win including 25% of Hochul voters, 30% of Democrats and 41% of Union households.
26% of the district thinks Kathy Hochul will win with only 58% of her voters; 40% of Democrats and 37% of Union households thinking she'll win.
Those last numbers would be depressing if you didn't consider that of course people won't think a Democrat can win because they never have. The same was true for NY-20 before Kirsten Gillibrand won it and for NY-23 before Owens became the first Democrats since the Civil War to win there and the same in NY-19 and NY-24 and NY-29 which couldn't be won by a Democrat until they were won by Democrats.
So those last numbers don't mean as much as you might think but they do need to be paid attention to. If your voters don't think you can win then you are in danger of them not coming out to vote or voting for a protest candidate or for who they think will be the winner.
I focus on this because I think it makes it clear that Kathy Hochul has to focus on Democrats, union members and the GOTV effort for voters identified as hers. While she obviously needs to increase her voters she needs to make sure she keeps her base on election day.
I say this because I also think the numbers show that the path she is currently taking is the right one. She needs to focus on her opponents support for repealing Medicare. She needs to support raising taxes on the wealthy and retaining Social Security and Medicare as strong programs. She needs to focus on Union households and Democrats that support these issues but are defecting to her opponents on other issues. She needs to bring them home. I would ignore the healthcare repeal business while hammering away at the Medicare issue. I would go after the half of the voters that support raising taxes on corporations. Each of these issues show significant support amongst the supporters of her opponents while strong support amongst her own. This makes it possible to lock in her own voters while converting those weak voters amongst her opponents.
To summarize:
40% of Corwin voters do not support cutting Medicare or Social Security.
38% of Corwin voters support raising taxes on the wealthy.
29% of Corwin voters support raising taxes on corporations.
How much you want to bet those are mostly the same people and that they are a significant part of these people:
54% of Corwin voters are open to changing their minds.
40% of Davis voters do not support cutting Medicare or Social Security.
65% of Davis voters support raising taxes on the wealthy.
47% of Davis voters support raising taxes on corporations.
53% of Davis voters are open to changing their minds.
If Kathy Hochul can successfully convince people that she is the candidate supporting these positions and her opponents are not then she can capture the additional 5% of the vote that she needs to win. |
