| OK, this poll was conducted by Global Strategy Group, who is working for Hochul, but it doesn't seem that far out of line with last week's Siena poll told us. A grain of salt, etc. GOP candidate Jane Corwin is essentially in a dead heat with Dem Kathy Hochul, with Crazy Jack Davis running just 5 points behind.
NY-26 Siren: Dem poll shows 3-way race
Democrat Kathy Hochul continues to close the gap against Republican Jane Corwin in the special election for New York's 26th District House seat, according to new Democratic polling data provided to POLITICO.
The poll, conducted for Hochul's campaign by Global Strategy Group, shows Corwin leading Hochul just 31 percent to 30 percent, with Jack Davis, an independent candidate running on the Tea Party ballot line, picking up 26 percent.
"The bottom line is this: Kathy Hochul is in the thick of it despite facing two self-funding millionaires who are hitting the airwaves with huge media buys," write the pollsters in a memo accompanying the results. "Hochul has the right profile to motivate her base and emerge as the victor in a competitive three-way race."
The new figures reflect a slight uptick for Hochul following a Siena College poll released last week that showed Corwin ahead, 36 percent to 31 percent, with Davis receiving 23 percent.
The poll of 400 likely voters was taken between May 2-4 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
Neither the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee nor the National Republican Congressional Committee has yet to invest in the race.
But Republicans are growing increasingly concerned that Davis, a wealthy industrialist and former Democrat who has spent more than $1 million on TV ads branding himself as a protectionist-oriented candidate, is siphoning votes from Corwin.
The question is will Crazy Jack Davis siphon enough votes from Corwin. I don't know anyone following this race that thinks Davis will pull anywhere near 26% on E-day.
I'd really love to see the crosstabs on this poll. I'm really curious where this Hochul surge is coming from.
So will DCCC get involved finally? If so, will NRCC be far behind in an attempt to bail out a candidate that looked like a sure fire winner just a couple of weeks ago?
NY-23 redux, anyone?
UPDATE: Via HP in the comments: Hotline On Call asks Nervous much, Jane Corwin?
Nervous much, Jane Corwin? The Republican nominee in the New York's 26th District special election is now launching attacks at both of her rivals as she's quickly seen her presumptive lead evaporate. A new internal poll from Democratic nominee Kathy Hochul's campaign shows the race is now a dead heat, one week after a Siena poll only showed Corwin up 5. In the Global Strategy Group survey, Corwin leads only 31 percent to Hochul's 30, with independent Jack Davis taking 26 percent. The question everyone wants to know - is this enough to force the DCCC's hand and have them get in the race? It's still a gamble, but with Hochul facing two self-funded candidates, she could use the extra help.
On the web:
Kathy Hochul for Congress
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twitter: @KathyHochul |
