| Looks like Turner is surging, folks.
Turner Holds 6-Point Lead over Weprin with 4 Days To Go (pdf)
Voters View Turner Favorably & Are Evenly Divided on Weprin;
Say Turner's Campaign is More Positive & Weprin's is More Negative
Heading into the final days of the special election for New York's 9th Congressional District seat, Republican Robert Turner has taken a 50-44 percent lead over Democrat David Weprin, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely 9th CD voters released today. In Siena College's previous poll on August 10th Weprin had led Turner 48-42 percent.
 Turner is viewed favorably by 48 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 34 percent, while Weprin has a 41-41 percent favorability rating. By a 43-32 percent margin, likely voters say Turner is running the more positive campaign, and by a similar 39-30 percent margin, they say Weprin's is the more negative campaign.
"Republican Turner heads into the final days of the campaign with a six-point lead in this heavily Democratic district after having trailedDemocrat Weprin by six points just four weeks
ago," said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. "Turner holds a small five-point lead in the Queens portion of the district, where he was trailing by 10 points in the previous Siena College Poll, and he has increased his lead in Brooklyn from six points previously to a now healthy 12-point bulge.
"While Turner has an overwhelming 90-6 percent lead among Republicans, Weprin has only a 63-32 percent lead among Democrats, and Turner has a 38-point lead among likely independent voters," Greenberg said. "Currently, Turner enjoys a slightly larger lead among independent voters than Weprin has with Democrats. Weprin needs to find a way to win a larger share of Democratic and independent voters if he's going to turn
the race back around in the final days."
You can find the crosstabs here (pdf).
I found this bit quite interesting as well.
"While a plurality of voters says New York State is on the right track, nearly three-quarters of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction," Greenberg said. "The voters' mood on the direction of the country, coupled with the unfavorable rating of President Obama - particularly among Republicans and independents - makes this a tougher election for Weprin, or for any Democrat running in this district or a district like it.
That's troubling. If a Dem running for the seat vacated by Anthony Weiner (Pelosi's decision to force him out is looking pretty dumb right about now, no?) is facing such a headwind, Dems in less friendly territory across the nation are in trouble. According to Siena, Obama's approval rating in the district is a mere 43%. In NYC.
That's very, very bad.
On the web: Weprin for Congress. |
