| First, some personal notes. I got to know Kirwan about a decade ago when I covered the city and town of Newburgh (and New Windsor) for a local newspaper. I never had a problem with him personally ... he would always call back and tell you what he thought.Jonathan Jacobson, the Orange County Democratic chairman, said the same thing in the linked article. Often you didn't agree with him, but you knew where he stood, and he was independent of his party enough to buck them by joining with Liz Krueger to file suit against the majorities of both the Assembly and Senate over the inequal treatment of the minority parties and publicly challenging the Pataki machine in 2000 over the way it was leaning on all the state's Republicans to publicly endorse Bush as the party's presidential nominee regardless of how that might otherwise personally feel.
I hadn't seen in him in person since running into him at the Alexis Diner outside Newburgh about five or six years ago. Yet I will miss him on a personal level.
He looked like he was getting on in years even then. I actually felt sorry for him when I saw pictures from last year's election events ... I really wonder if getting back into politics, something I don't really think he wanted to do, wasn't a factor in his death. I hope some of our local Republicans reflect on this possibility as well.
Now, to the question of what happens next ... obviously a special election to fill the vacant seat in the 100th A.D. (city and town of Newburgh, towns of Marlboro, Shawangunk and Lloyd west of the Hudson, and Beacon and Poughkeepsie east of it). Will this wait until after new legislative district lines are drawn? If we use the current district, and Frank Skartados (who held the seat from 2008-10) is the Democratic nominee, I see him winning it easily. But if he isn't, or they hold it under new district lines, most bets are off.
I don't know what Democrats might run if Frank doesn't. You'd think there'd be more, given the three cities in the district, but all three happen to have pretty strong Republican organizations, so the Democratic bench is not deep (I don't see former Beacon councilman Lee Kyriacou, who ran against Kirwan back in 2004 or so, as a viable candidate after his short unpleasant tenure as Spitzer's first director of Real Property Services ... there's too much there to be used against him).
But the Republican bench isn't that deep either, as evidenced by the fact that Kirwan was in the seat at his death ... the only Republican in the district they could find to challenge a freshman Democrat in a strong Republican year in the swingiest of districts. I'm sure there were others who wanted to do it, but the problem with the district is that even the established officials in Poughkeepsie have zero name recognition in Newburgh, and vice versa. Kirwan, by virtue of his previous service in the seat, was the only candidate that they could find, and from what I heard it took a lot of persuasion to get him to throw his hat in again.
I could see Mike Anagnostakis, a freshman Orange County legislator who (I think) lives in the Town of Newburgh as possibly being interested in this, and energetic enough to make a run. But I don't know whether, if I were the party establishment, I'd want him as my standard bearer. He'd have a lot of work to do on the name recognition front, not a lot of record so far (and living down his 2009 campaign, where he ousted a distracted eight-term Democratic incumbent largely by promising to cut county taxes 30%, a promise the party made clear he was on his own with, will not be easy). I also think, if I were them, I'd be wary of a candidate who relies so much on his own credit cards for financing campaigns (well over $50,000 on two cards, according to his disclosure forms from 2009). You can buy a seat in the county legislature that way, but not in the state legislature. Especially if your opponent is a well-off local farmer who already served a term in the Assembly, and his name is just as Greek but easier to pronounce than yours.
And then, what happens if it's held under new lines? The current 100th is getting increasingly Democratic. Kirwan was winning with narrower margins, even against weak opponents, before 2008, and his re-election by 15 votes, only certified in February, was the narrowest ever. As an open seat, I'd be scared of it if I were a Republican.
But how might it be redrawn? I don't see too many big changes around here ... unless the state Senate decides to give the increasingly-disliked Nancy Calhoun a push and draws some of the current 100th into her district (indeed, she's hinted that her decision to seek another term next year would hinge on redistricting). This would require that some more Republican territory be added to a new 100th (or whatever), probably a town in Ulster or Dutchess or two to offset the cities and their minority-heavy Democratic populations.
Since Kirwan's election secured for Assembly Republicans a minority that could block a veto override, something they haven't had in years (even if they haven't yet had to use it), I expect an election to fill Kirwan's seat will draw lots of interest (and money) from outside the Hudson Valley. This promises to be very interesting. |
