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SD:48: I'm Calling It: Aubertine Wins

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:38:48 PM EST

With over 97% in in all three counties, I'm gonna call this sucker. Darrel Aubertine is the next state Senator from New York's 48th District.

Really.

10:05 UPDATE:

All in from everywhere:

Aubertine 27901
Barclay 25345

Young Will would have to take better than 80% of the absentees. That ain't gonna happen.

We WIN.

phillip anderson :: SD:48: I'm Calling It: Aubertine Wins

Tags: Election Results, State Senate Joe Bruno, Will Barclay, Darrel Aubertine, SD-48, (All Tags)

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SD:48: I'm Calling It: Aubertine Wins | 40 comments

Nice! (4.00 / 3)

Disregard my comment in the previous diary. Great minds do think alike

by: Roatti @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:40:31 PM CST

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Woo!!! (4.00 / 3)

Bye bye Joe!

by: Jrathman @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:42:29 PM CST

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More results (4.00 / 5)

St. Lawrence: 6502 - 4048 (100%)
Jefferson: 13451 - 7627 (99%)
Oswego: 7579 - 13290 (98%)

Totals: 27532 - 24965 (52.4 - 47.6)

My guess was 52.5 - 47.5... I do declare I'm good at this!

by: Jrathman @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:49:47 PM CST

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Congratulations to a boat-load (4.00 / 5)

of hard working New York Democrats that made this impressive, impressive victory happen.

Good Job all!

Peace,

Andrew

REBOOTNY.org - it is time to Reboot the New York State Senate!

by: Andrew C. White @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:43:24 PM CST

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Let us congratulate each other folks! (4.00 / 3)

TAP Rocks! We did it, Janet and I are breaking out the Diet Ginger Ale!

by: politics64 @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:44:04 PM CST

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and now (4.00 / 3)

It's time to remove a sitting Republican from a seat!

by: NYCO @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:44:40 PM CST

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Time for... (4.00 / 3)

... a couple R's to switch to D;

... a whole lotta R retirements;

... a gold watch for Uncle Joe and his pasture.

REBOOTNY.org - it is time to Reboot the New York State Senate!

by: Andrew C. White @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:46:21 PM CST

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true (4.00 / 4)

but I would vastly prefer to win the majority at the ballot box than by a switch

by: Roatti @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:48:30 PM CST

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You and me both (4.00 / 5)

but this is New York... the land of opportunistic... er... um... opportunity!

REBOOTNY.org - it is time to Reboot the New York State Senate!

by: Andrew C. White @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:52:40 PM CST

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switch pool (4.00 / 2)

Anyone wanna start one?

by: NYCO @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:56:46 PM CST

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32-30 (4.00 / 2)

1 more seat until we have a blue senate.

by: thecount @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:46:35 PM CST

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WOHOOOOOOOOO! (4.00 / 3)

NAH-NAH-NAH-NAH! NAH-NAH-NAH-NAH! HEY-HEY-HEY, GOODBYE! UNCLE JOE

by: Roatti @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:47:13 PM CST

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Congratulations to the netroots (4.00 / 2)

who have become the difference in important, close elections like this.

But, of course, great candidates like Darrel help.

A lot.

Sine qua, non.

by: devtob @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:48:01 PM CST

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Who do you predict will switch at this news? (4.00 / 2)

Robach???
Fuschello from LI???
Some mid hudson dude???

by: politics64 @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:48:11 PM CST

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ahhhh, party switching (4.00 / 5)

New York, that's my home state!

by: NYCO @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:49:59 PM CST

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Not Robach (4.00 / 1)

Big-time Monroe County Dems are lining up to take him on, and he really is very conservative (although he pretends he's a moderate when he's home in the district).

by: Historical Pessimist @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:56:48 PM CST

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absentees (4.00 / 2)

total 4,251, according to the Post-Standard.

Still, I think odds are good they're not all Republican.

Congratulations to everyone who worked on this one!

by: simonstl @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:48:34 PM CST

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Absentees tend to mirror (4.00 / 1)

the machine results.

by: devtob @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:56:37 PM CST

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Shall we... (4.00 / 6)

...pick up our pitchforks while they are hot, march on to mass in Albany and muck out the rest of the stable? Naw, it's a blizzard out there. Let Unc Joe sit in his funk until the Pinksterfest or so... but then, watch out!

Seriously, kudos to the many, many who helped make it happen, and, especially, to the good folk of the North Country, who can vote even in the snow, and can recognize manure when they see it.

by: robinia @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:51:29 PM CST

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We built Darrel's site... (4.00 / 5)

...and I was telling Phillip this evening that traffic was very high on the site...a very good sign....

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:54:16 PM CST

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great job! (4.00 / 2)

by: Roatti @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:55:30 PM CST

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You're welcome :-) (4.00 / 1)

by: Michael Bouldin @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 23:18:58 PM CST

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indeed (0.00 / 0)

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 23:28:20 PM CST

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Let's hold a contest.... (4.00 / 3)

who do you think will be the first to switch...

I'll start.

John Bonacic.

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:56:16 PM CST

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I always thought (4.00 / 1)

in the back of my mind, that if the Dems put up Tim Green in the 50th district, that John DeFrancisco would switch parties, primary him, and probably win...

by: NYCO @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:58:32 PM CST

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You know Tim is going to run.... (0.00 / 0)

NOW.

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:35:58 PM CST

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ugh (0.00 / 0)

can't we please have someone else? Someone AUTHENTIC?

by: NYCO @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:37:23 PM CST

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You know Tim is going to run.... (0.00 / 0)

NOW.

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:35:58 PM CST

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Based on enrollment of 171k (4.00 / 2)

including absantees, this looks like about 33% turnout. Not bad for a snowy February special election!

by: Jrathman @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:57:22 PM CST

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yup (4.00 / 2)

snow don't bother these folks.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

by: phillip anderson @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:59:58 PM CST

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What snow? (4.00 / 1)

REBOOTNY.org - it is time to Reboot the New York State Senate!

by: Andrew C. White @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:10:15 PM CST

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100% in Now from all counties! (4.00 / 1)

Aubertine 27901

Barclay 25345

2556 vote plurality
not known if 4521 absentees are counted or not but even if not Barclay needs 85% of them to pull off this and that is a dogs pee chance of remaining liquid in Oswego tonight!

by: politics64 @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:59:57 PM CST

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absentees (4.00 / 1)

The Post-Standard says absentee votes have not been counted.

by: NYCO @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:01:24 PM CST

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Makes no difference! (4.00 / 1)

The number young Will needs is a metaphysical impossibility! Pass the Diet Ginger Ale, Janet!

by: politics64 @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:05:24 PM CST

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the contest or "blog pool" (4.00 / 2)

should be how big the Democratic majority will be after the November election?

I'll take 6.

by: jmcbride @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:14:24 PM CST

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6 seats or 6 votes? (0.00 / 0)

6 seats would be quite an undertaking. 6 votes I'll believe.

by: Jrathman @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:16:22 PM CST

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votes (4.00 / 1)

6 vote majority

by: jmcbride @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:28:48 PM CST

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Congratulations to the Entire TAP Community and the People of SD-48 (4.00 / 3)

I want to offer a special thanks to all the people on this site who participated in this election. You guys have really done us all a great service and should be proud of yourselves. It appears to me that this year is going to not only give us a Democratic majority, but one with a 3-4 seat advantage, at least.

by: Klugstah @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:29:07 PM CST

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Congrats from DC (4.00 / 3)

Two of us expat NY'ers have been following this race tonight. Congrats all around. Thanks for the updates Phillip!

Hiram Monserrate

by: jonah in nyc @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 21:30:36 PM CST

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Awesome (4.00 / 2)

Congratulations to everyone who worked so hard to make this possible -- what a great way to start this very important year.