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NRCC Memo: Gillibrand and Arcuri Are Targets, Hall Is Not

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 14:09:25 PM EST


Roll Call is reporting on a NRCC memo that lists 23 House seats and an open seat as targets this fall. Two New York Democrats are on the list, Krsten Gillibrand (NY-20) and Michael Arcuri (NY-24). What's interesting to me is who isn't on the list, John Hall (NY-19). I guess the NRCC, after failing at least three times to recruit a quality self funding challenger to Hall, is basically tossing rookie Kieran Michael Lalor to the wolves and taking a pass on mounting a serious challenge in the 19th.

NRCC Memo Reveals 24 Democratic Targets (Sub req'd)

The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting 23 Democratic incumbents, including several freshmen, and one open seat, according a memo obtained by Roll Call that was prepared by the NRCC for a March 5 briefing to political action committee officials.

The memo, titled "Two Dozen Reasons the NRCC will Pick Up Seats in 2008," shed some light as to where the NRCC might direct its limited resources in the fall, although the seats included on the committee's target list come as no surprise. The NRCC used the memo to highlight pickup opportunities in the November elections and urge PACs to donate to the committee and help Republicans take back the House.

The full list, which is heavy with freshmen in districts won by Bush in 2004, is in the extended entry...

phillip anderson :: NRCC Memo: Gillibrand and Arcuri Are Targets, Hall Is Not

Rep. Harry Mitchell in Arizona's 5th district and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona's 8th; Rep. Jerry McNerney in California's 11th; Rep. Christopher Murphy in Connecticut's 5th; Rep. Tim Mahoney in Florida's 16th; Rep. Jim Marshall in Georgia's 8th; Rep. Melissa Bean in Illinois' 8th; Rep. Baron Hill in Indiana's 9th; Rep. Nancy Boyda in Kansas' 2nd and Rep. Dennis Moore in Kansas' 3rd; Rep. John Yarmuth in Kentucky's 3rd; Rep. Tim Walz in Minnesota's 1st; Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire's 1st and Rep. Paul Hodes in New Hampshire's 2nd; Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand in
New York's 20th
; Rep. Michael Arcuri in New York's 24th; Rep. Jason Altmire in Pennsylvania's 4th, Rep. Patrick Murphy in Pennsylvania's 8th, Rep. Christopher Carney in Pennsylvania's 10th and Rep. Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania's 11th; Rep. Nick Lampson in Texas' 22nd and Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in Texas' 23rd; and Rep. Steve Kagen in Wisconsin's 8th.
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What do 11 of these 24 Democrats have in common? (4.00 / 1)
They are members of the House Blue Dog Coalition. So the NRCC is targeting the moderate and conservative members of the House.

Good luck with that...


and fully one third of them (4.00 / 3)
are bush dogs.

when are they going to learn that republicans are not their friends?

TODAY is day one. It always is.


[ Parent ]
I don't know why the Republicans would target Jim Marshall... (4.00 / 1)
Marshall votes with the Republicans on practically every important issue as it is. Having him on the list is ridiculous. He's a Republican as it is! He and Gene Taylor of Mississippi are two of the most conservative Democrats we have!

Phillip, I like the point you made. But I think you can even turn it around and ask why Republicans would target THESE Democrats who have voted with them on certain issues? It doesn't make sense.


[ Parent ]
opportunism (4.00 / 1)
these are the seats they feel they can win, or at least the ones they feel they can convince donors they can win.  

TODAY is day one. It always is.

[ Parent ]
Well let's face it... (4.00 / 2)
We don't think like Republicans. If we did, we would be losing our seats right now.

Nevertheless, I think it will be hard for Republicans to justify removing a conservative Dem like Marshall, among others. Marshall is fairly popular in that district (at least he was). I don't agree with him on everything, but it's pretty clear he is popular in that district - even among Republicans.  


[ Parent ]
A Few Points (4.00 / 1)
First, don't forget that Georgia, like Texas, had a mid-cycle redistricting specifically designed to make Dems like Marshall vulnerable.  And the GOP almost succeeded in bouncing him in 2006.  Marshall had won in his old district in 2004 by almost 56,000 votes, but in the current district, he was held to a margin of only 1750.  (FWIW, Georgia was one of the only states where Dems lost ground on a statewide level in 2006.)

Second, while a lot of the Dems on this list have comparatively low party unity scores, they do all support Democratic leadership of the House, which is reason enough for the NRCC to want them gone.  The voters may obviously be less enthusiastic about tossing them out.  And even the "least" reliable Dem on this list (again, Marshall) has voted with a majority of the party 83.7% of the time in the 110th Congress.

Third, like it or not, electability has to play a role at some level in Congressional elections.  Progressive Democrats are simply not going to be viable in many of these GOP-targeted districts; if this weren't the case, they'd be seeing a lot more in the way of primary challengers.

Fourth, a lot of these are freshmen were elected from districts that tend to tilt pretty red, meaning of course that they're at their most vulnerable this year before they've been able to really establish themselves in the Washington Power Game (for better or worse).

Fifth, as an indication that the Blue Dog Coalition is necessarily all bad all the time, please note that Big Orange is actively encouraging support for -- and NYBri is working on behalf of -- Bill Foster in IL-14, and Foster is apparently on record more than once as saying that if elected he'll join the Blue Dog Democrats.  Is that ideal?  Not at all.  But this is Hastert's old distrct, and there's no question that Foster would be a thousand times better than Oberweis.  Remember, the perfect is the enemy of the good.

None of what I've said here should be viewed as terribly original or insightful, but it bears repeating.


[ Parent ]
Arcuri (4.00 / 3)
I wouldn't worry too much about Arcuri.  He's solidified his status too quickly since he was elected.

NYRI is still a hot issue, as well, and he continues to be extremely vocal on it.


i'm not terribly worried about (4.00 / 1)
either of them and i find much of the bravado in the memo laughable. this was a document produced to shop to donors and it reads like it.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

[ Parent ]
Saw Arcuri in Syracuse... (4.00 / 1)
When I went to meet Dan Maffei. Arcuri is a great guy and a great speaker. Good luck going after him... he'll crush the Republican.


[ Parent ]
Deep pocket enemies (4.00 / 1)
I was in a meeting today with one of Arcuri's staffers, talking about upcoming Transportation Committee business.  Between the NYRI (which, NYCO is right, is still hot, and NYRI is not making headway) and the railroads (which the Dems will bring up a re-regulation bill this spring-summer on.... Schumer has already been signaling that it is coming), Arcuri could be going up against some deep pocket enemies.  Of course, I'm thrilled he is standing firm.

But, we will have to work hard at the grassroots and netroots level to counter the influence of all that cash.  Unless, of course, their treasurers embezzle it...


[ Parent ]
And, somewhat late in the game, (0.00 / 0)
Arcuri has no viable opponent yet.

The NRCC must think they can beat somebody with nobody, which has never happened.


[ Parent ]
Gillibrand makes the NRCC list (4.00 / 1)
because she's a freshman, representing a notionally blood-red district (80,000 Republican registration advantage).

And her opponent will (presumably) be a multi-millionaire self-funder.

But Gillibrand is remarkably hard-working, in DC and the district, and in fund-raising.

Everyone who meets her (and many thousand have at her regular district events) likes her.

She will win by a wide margin in November.


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