NY-26: Reynolds Won't Seek Reelection

Well, this means we're gonna lose (0.00 / 0)

but even so, I'm feeling happy.

Tom Reynolds is one of the worst fucking people on earth.

Powers, Davis, whatever; Maziarz or Chris Collins will run and win, because it's a republican district and they dont have the baggage.

But i'm so happy that the witch is dead.

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by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 22:20:23 PM CDT

We're going to lose? (4.00 / 1)

That's news to me, on top of usual Democratic pesimissm in this district.

First off, what makes you think Collins would run? He just took office a few months ago. I would think he (and the Republicans) wouldn't be stupid enough to sacrifice the CE's seat when they already have it. The Dems screwed up with Keane once. They won't make a similar mistake again.

Next, Maziarz would have to move into the 26th. You also have to wonder whether Maziarz would give up his Senate seat, which only has (approx.) an 8,000 voter Republican advantage. That's not exactly a good seat to give up in these times. We could win his Senate seat, and then he would be taking a big risk at Congress.

Yes, on paper, it looks like a winner for the Republicans. But people in this district are listening to Jon Powers on both sides of the aisle. He will garner strong bipartisan support.

Lastly, I don't doubt other names will be tossed around as well. Who knows? Maybe Jack Davis will go back where he belongs and run as a Republican.

Support our troops, not the war.

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 22:41:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

OK, you're right to some ... (0.00 / 0)

it's not impossible, but you have to concede that our best chance was running against Satan, because it's so easy to make Satan look like Satan.

Davis was +14% in Erie County in 2006 and lost. Normally, that area is about +2 Republican. That's what we're up against in my neck of the woods.

I mention those 2 because Jim Domalgowski, the ECRC Chair, will control the endorsement, and that's where he's comfortable. Don't forget, Chris Collins has run for Congress before; in 1998 he ran against LaFalce even though he lived in what was then the Paxon district (meanwhile, Reynolds lived in Quinn's district and ran for Paxon's seat). The residency requirement I think is is 30 days prior to swear-in. Maziarz can run from wherever and he'll be fine. The districts overlap in Niagara and Orleans counties so he can move without moving out for now.

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by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 23:13:49 PM CDT

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um, no (4.00 / 1)

Reynolds was known throughout the district. The same things that tarnished Reynolds tarnish whichever Republican is running. But the Republican trying to replace Reynolds, Maziarz or whoever else, won't have the advantage of the whole district knowing him. So this is a big boost.

Maziarz gets institutional support in his state Senate runs because he's willing to abandon Republican ideology to pass legislation. Powers needs to be reaching out to those groups now so who they endorse isn't about who they know (Maziarz has that advantage) and is instead about who will be in the majority (advantage Powers). Getting those groups on his side will suck any wind out of a Maziarz run.

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/SteveinNYC

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by: SteveinNYC @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 00:02:49 AM CDT

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And now watch Jack Davis... (4.00 / 1)

run as a republican. It's gonna happen.

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by: Bouldin @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 22:49:47 PM CDT

I wouldn't be surprised... (4.00 / 1)

He could use the argument that the Democrats pissed on him by not endorsing him this time around. He fits the Republican mold... always has.  

Support our troops, not the war.

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 23:03:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Best possible scenario (4.00 / 1)

Because then Jon Powers won't have to waste money beating him in a primary. He can beat him in the general!

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 09:03:33 AM CDT

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best comment yet at dkos: (4.00 / 1)

Alice Kryzan is the real Democrat running

Markos, why are you getting behind Powers before the people of NY's 26th have? Powers was a Republican until two years ago. In contrast, Alice Kryzan has been an attorney serving the public interest for her entire career -- and a lifelong Democrat. She's a serious candidate. If the netroots want to elect more women to Congress, then we need to be willing to support them in primaries -- or at least not act as if their candidacies don't even exist.

um, sure. and stuff.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 23:07:28 PM CDT

Kryzan (4.00 / 1)

Yes, but Powers never represented the chemical polluters of Love Canal.  

So, he's got that going for him regardless of his past party affiliation.  

Buffalopundit  blog at WNYMedia.net

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by: buffalopundit @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 07:35:26 AM CDT

One Point re Maziarz (0.00 / 0)

It is technically incorrect to state that Maziarz "would have to move into the 26th District to run.  The United States Constitution imposes no such requirement.  From Article I, Section 2:

No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.

This is different from the residency requirements that apply to members of state legislators (such as Maziarz).  Although I can't find any such list right now, there have certainly been instances in the past when candidates have been elected from outside their district.

The practicality of it is another matter entirely, since it obviously opens the candidate up to claims of being unfamiliar with the district's concerns, of being a carpetbagger, etc., etc.

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by: The Maven @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 08:55:13 AM CDT

Well, the point is... (0.00 / 0)

That Reynolds did this when he won this seat. He didn't even live in the district. Maziarz is in a different position though, being that his senate district overlaps with the congressional district, so it's not like he's completely foreign to this area.

I don't consider this a major issue anyway, but it's a point worth noting that he does live outside the congressional district. Regardless of what the Constitution says or any other guidelines, it comes down to the issues. People will argue (and I will make this argument) that in order to understand the issues in a district, you better live in that district to get a better understanding. NY-28 is different than NY-26. Maziarz has some understanding of a small portion of the district, but he still needs Erie, Genesee, Livingston, Wyoming and a part of Monroe (the part he doesn't represent now).

It's more about principle. Reynolds moved into the district for a reason and that reason is that if you don't live in the district, people will automatically (and correctly I contend) argue that you don't understand what the district is like because you don't live there. Maziarz should do the same thing if he wants to be taken seriously.  

Support our troops, not the war.

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by: robert.harding @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 09:05:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Agree (0.00 / 0)

I was just taking issue with the phrasing that he would have to move into the district.  For practical political purposes, yes he would, but not because of any legal obligation to do so.

There are quite a large number of very astute people who believe that a member of the House of Representatives must live within their district, so I figure it's always worth pointing out that constitutionally, there is no such requirement.  The voters are free to accept or reject any candidate based on their local residency (or lack thereof).

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by: The Maven @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 11:04:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]