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NY-26: Kryzan Leads By 10 In New Poll

by: robert.harding

Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 14:51:57 PM EDT


(H/T to Swing State Project)

In a recent poll conducted in the 26th congressional district, Democratic nominee Alice Kryzan beats out Republican Chris Lee by 10 points - 39 percent to 29 percent - with 32 percent undecided.

Swing State Project posted the polling memo. Here is an excerpt from that:

While neither candidate is currently well-known district-wide, Kryzan's history and basic messages of standing up for the middle class and making the government work for them have a ready audience in this blue collar district, particularly with working women and Independent voters. She begins this contest with favorable to unfavorable ratio of over four-to-one.

Moreover, Republican Chris Lee has some serious negatives around trade issues, Iraq, and his failure to stand up for the middle class that make him a tough sell this year given the heightened economic angst of these western New York voters. Before these issues are even brought up with voters, Lee is viewed favorably by only 19 percent of voters--while 11 percent view him unfavorably. Once voters hear more about Lee's record on central pocketbook issues impacting the district's  middle class, he quickly loses all but the most partisan Republican support, and Independent voters are greatly troubled about supporting him as well.

This is big news. Now, there are still 32 percent undecided, but having a 10 point head-start to get those undecideds come your way is huge. I usually take these polls with a grain of salt, but this will garner huge press I'm sure.

I should have some video and a write-up on Kryzan tonight after my interview with her.

UPDATE: Isn't it interesting that when given a choice between two candidates that know very little about, they picked the Democrat? That to me shows what kind of environment we are in, even here in one of the reddest parts of New York.

ON THE WEB:

Alice Kryzan's ActBlue Page

robert.harding :: NY-26: Kryzan Leads By 10 In New Poll
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Wouldn't take this one to the bank (0.00 / 0)
We all know that the 26th partisan breakdown is much less favorable than 33 Dem, 32 Rep. I don't think Chris Lee is a particularly strong candidate, but I have never thought this seat was winnable for a Dem. The vote was tapped out in Erie County last time around, and I see Kryzan having difficulty matching the numbers that Davis put up in Newstead/Clarence, leaving the question, with a smaller margin in Erie County than 06, is it possible to find enough votes outside to make up the difference?

I disagree with you (0.00 / 0)
which is weird.

I think with a female candidate there's another 2-6 points in Erie available and there's always been more points in Roc. Media Market areas like Monroe County and Batavia available.  


[ Parent ]
Okay (0.00 / 0)
With the boosted turnout, the Reynolds margin would expand to 12,000 in 06. At the same time, Kryzan stands to lose a net of 4,000 votes from Clarence and Newstead, if you consider Laura Monte's results from the 06 Assembly results comparable to what Kryzan will get. So that leaves Kryzan with about 8,000 people to switch their votes in some pretty unfriendly territory.

[ Parent ]
might Obama help? (0.00 / 0)
I don't know the demos of the district, but if it has reasonably high college or African-American populations, then Obama might help a lot with turn-out.  

[ Parent ]
You really don't know the district, do you? :) (0.00 / 0)
We do not have high college and AA populations. And outside the urban counties, we have almost no college and AA pops. Here in Wyoming County, only 15% of the population is college educated, 10 points under the national average.

[ Parent ]
Aren't there 3 SUNYs (0.00 / 0)
including UB in the district?

[ Parent ]
Just the one that I know of, SUNY Geneseo. (0.00 / 0)
SUNY Buffalo is in a different district. We're not too far from SUNY Fredonia, but it's well outside district lines. And even in Livingston county, home of SUNY Geneseo, the number of people with a college degree is still only 19%, 6% below the national average.  

[ Parent ]
Most important sentance: (0.00 / 0)
...while party registration still favors Republicans, voters in the district are currently just as likely to identify themselves as Democrat as they are to identify as Republican

That's why the Repubs are going to get massacred in upstate NY this year - sure they still have the numbers on paper, but in practice its not true anymore - look no further than SD-48 for proof.

Early prediction:

+3 Congress
+5 Senate
+5 Assembly

Don't be shocked if some "safe" republican assemblymen lose.


Not a math major (0.00 / 0)
   Is a sample size of 400 voters with 32% undecided a good representation for a voting base of 300,000+ in a district with a Republican registration advantage of 30,000+?

  Don't judge other people by your own limitations.

400 people gives a small margin of error, a (0.00 / 0)
95% chance that one number is less than 4.9% off, 99.8% chance that both numbers are less than 4.9% off - in either direction. its equally as likely that its worse as it is that it is better.

However, the 32% undecided means that this is, yes, basically not too informative. I think the Party ID is the most interesting part of the poll.

But it means a lot that 32% of people can still be swayed, or at least think that they can. I wonder what "Would you rather vote for the Democrat or the Republican" without names would show here.


[ Parent ]
Does "undecided" refer to Powers? (0.00 / 0)
His website still says

As we are still on the ballot as the nominee for the Working Families Party, my family and team are currently deciding how best to proceed.

People, especially Powers supporters, should be reminding him that this election is not about him, but about the future of this country, for ALL of us.

In NY-21, Phil Steck, who is nominally on the Imdependence line, had the good grace to endorse Dem nominee Paul Tonko on election night.  Even Hillary, who made a grudging concession speech the Tuesday night she was mathematically eliminated, slept it off and gave a whole hearted endorsement of Obama the following Saturday.

The least Powers could do is endorse Kryzan and campaign for her.  Even better would be to get him off the WFP line.  It would be a good use of resources for the DCCC to buy his house (with a view to reselling it in December) and giving Powers a 2 or 3 month job based in Washington campaigning for Dem candidates in close House races.


Election laws (0.00 / 0)
  Powers' name can't be removed from the ballot.  How much is an endorsement worth at this point?   How often does a congressional primary candidate campaign for the winner? Seriously, I'm asking if its common practice.  I don't recall it happening around here, anyway.

  Don't judge other people by your own limitations.

[ Parent ]
Wrong. 3 ways to be removed from the ballot (0.00 / 0)
...include being nominated for a judgeship, as the GOP is attempting in NY-13, and moving out of state, for which I proposed a practical scenario above.  (IIRC, the third is death.)

My brother was the WFP placeholder nominee for Mayor of NYC, but as a member of the bar for >10 years, he was eligible for a judicial nomination once the Dem nominee was determined.  The WFP then was able to put the Dem candidate on the ballot. Since Powers may not be eligible to run for a judgeship, moving him to Washington temporarily as I proposed is the best option.

As for your question, the WFP nomination can be, and repeatedly has been, decisive in a close race.  Think about Florida 2000. Any campaign to pick up a Repug-held seat in a district with a majority of GOP registrants must be considered a close race, despite this one poll showing the Dem candidate far under 50%.


[ Parent ]
Ok (0.00 / 0)
  You're technically correct. So, let me correctly say, "Powers name can't realistically be removed from the ballot". Better? The chances of what you're suggesting actually happening are remote enough to dismiss them as extremely unlikely.  There's no chance of a judicial nominee in this instance, as you said, and the idea of the DCCC moving Powers out of state to clear the WFP line is a real reach.  And let's say any of your first two scenarios occur.  Kryzan can't get on the WFP line at this date, can she?

  Unlike you suggest, I wasn't questioning the WFP endorsement.  I questioned an endorsement from Powers.  My opinion is there's not much value in it at this point.  Wouldn't it be better for Kryzan not to have people reminded of the primary campaign?  I think that her supporters efforts would be better spent on reaching out to rather than scolding the Powers supporters.  

  Don't judge other people by your own limitations.


[ Parent ]
Powers' active endorsement of Kryzan would negate the spoiler effect (0.00 / 0)
...of the WFP line whether or not my half serious proposal is adopted.  Hillary's active support of Obama had the effect of reminding her primary supporters what is at stake in the election. EVERYONE paying attention, across the political spectrum, said it was VERY important.

As I explained in the case of my brother, the WFP can put the Dem nominee on the line if the current WFP nominee is moved off. Temporarily moving Powers legal residence out of state for 2-3 months would hardly be more costly or disruptive to his life than the primary campaign was.

A Congressional pickup is worth going the extra mile.
Every seat we gain increases the ability to make a majority effective.  We need a super-majority to accomplish positive change in the face of Repug obstructionism.


[ Parent ]
I don't think it really has much to do with Powers. (0.00 / 0)
It's worthwhile to remember that, assuming this poll is accurate, she's polling only 6 points behind where Davis did in 2004, and 9 points behind Davis in 2006.

Thing is, Chris Lee is almost totally unknown, more so even than Kryzan. That would account for softness to his support. I absolutely don't believe that fence-sitting Powers supporters account for a significant fraction of that 32% undecided.  


[ Parent ]
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