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NY-20: Steele out when Tedisco loses?

by: devtob

Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 11:16:29 AM EDT

Another way the race, should Murphy win it, would have a national impact is that it will end Michael Steele's entertaining stint as chairman of the Republican National Committee after just a few months, according to Sean Quinn of fivethirtyeight.com.

Quinn's report has some inside baseball about Steele, and also a pretty positive analysis of Murphy's chances.

Details, below.

First, recent polling has shown Murphy edging closer, and Tedisco under 50 percent.

Second, it appears that, although Republicans will again challenge the validity of signatures, third-party libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall may be poised to get on the ballot, which would likely siphon off some Tedisco votes.

Third, Democrats are spending seriously on the race, while Steele's efforts have been largely cosmetic. Steele campaigned on the idea that as chairman, he would lead the party back to winning races in territory they've been ceding. Still, his personal efforts behind fundraising on this race have been terrible, and Republicans watching the internal dynamics know it. If Tedisco wins, Steele won't get any credit behind the scenes.

Fourth, Tedisco is struggling with his message on the stimulus package, which is apparently tied to his softening poll numbers.

The third bit is new to me. The RNC subsidized Tedisco's first ad to the tune of $80,000, and Steele had done at least two events for Tedisco.

So the view from the inside (Quinn's sources are "multiple former high-level RNC staffers") that Steele's efforts on behalf of Tedisco have been "cosmetic" and "terrible" is great news for Murphy.

Quinn recounts Steele's habit of making "strange, provocative, on-record statements" that have endeared him to lefty bloggers, but disquieted RNC members and the GOP media.

But Quinn's sources state that the NY-20 race is Steele's crucible:

If Tedisco loses, the ex-staffers said, "Steele is done."

Completely, definitively?

"Absolutely."

snip

What is still likely is, though they are clearly not happy with some of Steele's shenanigans and organization-building unpreparedness, there are enough Republicans at this point who would rather see Steele succeed than fail.

But God help him if Murphy beats Tedisco in NY-20.

Quinn's astute analysis is one more reason that you should help Scott Murphy send Tedisco back to the Assembly.