We have talked about turnout today and according to Kyle Kotary, who knows a thing or two about New York State politics, turnout is looking great in the Capital Region and statewide.
From Kyle:
75% turn out in Bethlehem so far...similar numbers throughout Cap Region and State. Schenectady, Troy, Albany...all huge turn out...numbers closing in on 80%...Rochester, Buffalo, NYC and LI turn out closing in on 75-80%...
With these numbers, Senate Dems will pick up State Senate...all local incumbents look safe though...look for Assembly 112 and Bruno Senate seat to be really close given this kind of turnout. Gillibrand will win comfortably and Tonko in a landslide.
Could SD-43 with Mike Russo as the Democratic candidate be that surprise I was talking about earlier? Maybe.
High turnout is a good thing. We knew turnout was going to be high. But we didn't know how high. This turnout is historic, not only for New York, but for the United States as a whole. With turnout numbers like this throughout the country, a lot of races are in play.
A friend of mine went to vote, and was armed with my instructions on how to cast a write-in ballot. It was a good thing.
Nowhere, in the voting booth or on the "instructions" display at the table, is there any explanation of how to cast a write-in ballot. Just for fun, my friend asked the poll worker, who told her she couldn't do it -- there was no way.
It's actually easy. At the left end of the front of the machine is a column of tabs. There is a button above the tabs. Push the button, and slide the tab(s) over for the races in which you want to cast a write-in ballot, to expose a space where you can write in your choice. There should be a pencil taped to the left inside wall of the booth, or you can bring your own.
Don't close the tab manually; it will close automatically when you pull the big lever to record your vote. It will also slide your write-in vote out of the way, so the next person casting a write-in vote won't see it.
SPREAD THE WORD!!! Poll workers are not trained, nor does the Board of Elections provide proper instructions.
Even Dixville Notch, a town that usually votes for Republicans, has Obama fever.
UPDATE: There are three things I wanted to mention in relation to these results from Dixville Notch.
(1) Obama and McCain won their respective primaries in Dixville Notch's voting. Not that Dixville Notch's voting had anything to do with it (Obama ended up losing New Hampshire) but it is interesting that the presidential election ended up being those two.
(2) Democrats haven't fared well in Dixville Notch voting, especially in recent history. In 1992, Bill Clinton came in fourth behind George H.W. Bush, Ross Perot and Libertarian candidate Andre Marrou. In 2000, George W. Bush blew out Al Gore by 16 votes, winning 21-5.
(3) Prior to Obama, the only other Democrat to win Dixville Notch? Hubert Humphrey in 1968.
"Today's poll speaks for itself. Voters here recognize that Democrat Bill Stachowski has a real record of saving jobs and fighting Republican outsourcing schemes. The more they learn about his Republican opponent's plan to maintain the status quo in Albany, the less they like."
Joe Mesi's campaign also responded about today's findings that indicated Mesi is running a tight race against Republican Mike Ranzenhofer.
"With the polls showing a neck-and-neck race, Joe Mesi's campaign is heading into the final 48 hours with a wave of momentum from endorsements by Senator Hillary Clinton and Governor David Paterson. Joe Mesi will be fighting to the finish - talking to families across Western New York - with a marathon 'Countdown to Change' campaign blitz through each of the 17 towns of the Senate District in 17 hours on election eve."
Stachowski has had quite a turnaround, but there is still a lot of work to be done prior to Tuesday. Mesi is running neck-and-neck with Ranzenhofer and will be working hard over the next two days to earn a victory on Tuesday.
Tomorrow will be a busy day in Western New York. Get out the vote efforts will be underway to help several candidates, including Alice Kryzan, Joe Mesi and Bill Stachowski.
But tomorrow also features at least two events in Buffalo that are worth attending. The first occurs at 11 a.m. tomorrow morning in Amherst. At the UAW Region 9 Hall (Located at 35 George Karl Blvd. off of Wehrle Dr. near Main Street) there will be a GOTV rally featuring Gov. David Paterson. After that, the New Democrats of Western New York will be doing a literature drop and canvass for some local candidates.
Then tomorrow afternoon, Working Families Win will be hosting a rally with live music and some of the area's prominent leaders from 3 to 10 p.m. at the Albright-Knox Art Gallery in Buffalo.
Here is a list of the entertainment and local politicians who will be in attendance:
Featuring local musicians Davey O, The Found, Redwater, The Thermidors, and Type Relevant. Speakers will include NYS Senator Antoine Thompson, Erie County Comptroller Mark Poloncarz, Erie County Legislator Betty Jean Grant, Erie County Legislator Michele Iannello, Erie County Legislator Bob Reynolds, Buffalo Common Councilmember David Rivera, Congressional candidate Dan Humiston, Congressional candidate Alice Kryzan, NYS Assembly candidate Jerry Schad, Erie County Democratic Chairman Len Lenihan, and a representative from the ACLU.
It promises to be a huge day in Buffalo tomorrow as efforts are underway to get more and more Democrats elected. If you are in the area, come out to the rally in Amherst tomorrow morning or head out to the rally in the afternoon. It should be a lot of fun and will definitely energize you to help get Democrats elected on Tuesday.
I believe it was Jon Stewart who asked Scott McClellan a few months ago when McClellan was promoting his book who McClellan was going to vote for in the presidential election. McClellan didn't say it at the time, but you could tell he was undecided.
And now comes his grinning declaration, taped for a new weekend CNN show, "D.L. Hughley Breaks the News," that he has a favorite in the presidential election, and it is not John McCain.
His face lighting up as bright as his French blue shirt, it is clear what he's going to say before he opens his mouth.
"I will be voting for Barack Obama," he declares.
So the week that began when one former top Bush administration figure, former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, endorsed Obama ends with the endorsement of another.
McClellan doesn't have the stature that Powell does, but his vote does show that there are Republicans who are willing to cross party lines and vote for Obama. I know plenty of Republicans and I have heard of a few supporting Obama. The whole unity message resonates with people on both sides of the aisle.
Don Barber had the chance to take on his opponent, Republican Sen. Jim Seward, in a radio debate. Barber took advantage of the golden opportunity.
According to the campaign, the debate will rebroadcast at noon Sunday on WZOZ 103.1FM, WDOS 730AM and WSRK 103.9FM.
Here is the reaction from Barber and his campaign following the debate:
In comments after the debate, Barber said, "Look at the state of our economy even before the Wall Street meltdown. Manufacturing is disappearing, family farms are being sold, minimum wage jobs are multiplying. We have 2.6 million in New York State without health insurance, one in three are without coverage at any given time, and now my opponent is going around touting stripped-down policies that non-partisan groups like the American Cancer Society say won't even pay for life saving treatments. The time is long past for new leadership in our district."
During the debate Barber pressed one of the central points of his candidacy, the corrupting influence of big money in Albany politics. "My opponent has taken over $320,000 from insurance interests. He's the Chair of the Senate Insurance Committee. This creates the appearance of impropriety, and the public loses faith in its representatives."
In a recent report, "The High Cost of Pay to Play," Citizen Action pointed out that Sen. Seward was the New York State Senate's leading recipient of cash from health insurers. Don Barber hasn't received a single dollar from corporate interests in his run for the state Senate, but has instead relied on over 2,000 individual donors to fund his seven-county campaign.
"It's hard to see how Senator Seward can say he's proud of his record when all around us we see the evidence of an economy in deep, long-term decline," said Tarah Rowse, Barber's Campaign Manager. "Don Barber has a plan to build a new economy that will provide the kind of jobs that will attract young people to our area, not send them running off thousands of miles away to find decent employment."
The people of the 51st Senate District have a clear choice. You can go with the same incumbent senator who has catered to the special interests instead of your interests OR you can go with Don Barber, a champion of the middle class and a hardworking man who will take that approach and view to Albany.
The choice is a clear one to me. The people of the 51st Senate District are fortunate to have a candidate like Don Barber. This is a golden opportunity to bring real change to Albany.
Contrary to popular belief, I never thought it was necessary that Jon Powers endorse Alice Kryzan. But Jon, after serious thought and meditation, has come out in a big way for Alice today.
Jon has sent an e-mail to supporters endorsing Alice and asking them to do whatever they can to help Alice as she takes on Republican Chris Lee in a tough fight here in NY-26.
Here is the first part of the e-mail:
Friends,
Over the last 18 months, together, we have worked to call attention to the many challenges Western New Yorkers face. I listened to families struggling because of our weakened economy, soldiers fighting in a war without the necessary equipment and returning without health care they have earned -- there is no question that our country is hurting because of Washington's failed leadership. With just 18 days until Election Day, I write to urge you to vote for change. We have a chance to elect a new Member of Congress to represent the working men and women of Western New York and I hope you will join me in supporting Alice Kryzan for Congress.
Families in Western New York have a clear choice. As our youth are moving out of state to find jobs, do we want a representative who will continue to send our jobs overseas? Or do we want someone who will fight to grow good paying Green-collar and Green-tech jobs that will move Western New York into the 21st Century.
The rest of the e-mail is below the fold.
We have 18 days until Election Day. Let's help Alice Kryzan any way we can. Whether it's going door to door, phone banking or writing letters to the editor, let's help make sure NY-26 turns blue on November 4.
The Democratic Party is on the verge of claiming complete control of the New York State government. There is a Democratic governor, and Democrats make up about two-thirds of the state Assembly. The last remaining Republican holdout is the state Senate, and Democrats are only two seats away from a majority there. In addition, the watchword for this election is "change," and Democrats are on the "change bandwagon."
The major stumbling block to turning the state Senate blue is that Republicans have several million dollars available. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee (SRCC) has $1.7 million in cash, compared with just under $1.3 million for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC). As of a week ago, the Democratic state party committee had a tiny advantage over the Republican state party committee, $418K to $360K. In addition, over the last two months the SRCC had transferred far more to individual candidates than the DSCC had transferred to its candidates.
In other words, Democrats need a major transfusion of money, and there's no time to raise it.
There is a source of money that might be tapped. After a three-way primary in which he got 68% of the vote, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver still has $2.5 million in his own campaign account. State law only allows him to transfer small amounts to other candidates' campaign accounts, but it also allows him (or any candidate) to transfer as much as he wants to the DSCC, which could then transfer all they want to individual Senate candidates' campaign committees.
In other words, he could send $1.5 million to the DSCC, which would give Democrats a huge leg up in the battle to win the state Senate, and still keep a million dollars.
(My thanks to the incomparable Bill Mahoney of NYPIRG who compiled multiple spreadsheets that put all of this important information on paper in an easy-to-read format.)
The 32 day pre-general campaign finance filing deadline came and went. Here is a look at the numbers from the filings that have been posted over the last few days.
NEW YORK STATE SENATE RACES SD-3: Democratic challenger Brian Foley had $303,966.73 in receipts for the period while Republican opponent Sen. Caesar Trunzo had $439,120.90 in receipts, spent $333,860.29 and has $358,666.80 cash on hand. Foley has $179,185.67 after spending $294,120.34 this period.
SD-15: Joseph Addabbo, the Democrat challenging Republican Serph Maltese, has more cash on hand than his opponent ($216,178.44 to $89,874.28) but Maltese did bring in more money ($541,268.13 in receipts) and spent plenty of it ($588,501.28 in expenditures). Think Maltese and the Republicans are nervous? The money being invested in that race shows that they are.
SD-56: This is a race to watch because a lot of money has been spent already and a lot of money will be spent all the way to November 4. Democratic candidate Rick Dollinger brought in $444,005.03 this period and spent $415,521.21. By comparison, Sen. Joe Robach (Dollinger's Republican opponent) had $326,486.00 in receipts and spent $427,125.25. Those numbers leave both candidates with close cash on hand figures. Dollinger has $176,142.30 cash on hand while Robach has $169,409.70.
SD-61: Republican Mike Ranzenhofer has more cash on hand ($146,746.25) but Democratic challenger Joe Mesi did have more receipts ($140,250.00 to Ranzenhofer's $67,743.84). Ranzenhofer spent slightly more than Mesi during the period ($106,299.56 to $97,044.81). This race is a close one. Mesi can pull it out, so the money doesn't tell the whole story. He's got the name recognition in this district to win it.
- Barack Obama was attacked all night by John McCain. On at least three occasions, Obama was presented with the first question by Jim Lehrer. When McCain was given his time to respond, he would immediately go after Obama.
- McCain apparently likes to boast about the leaders he has met or supposedly has met and the places he has traveled to. He reminds me of a bunch of high school seniors I once knew who like to brag about where they went for spring break.
- McCain kept spreading the whole "If we leave Iraq, Al-Qaeda will create a base there" misconception. We have ignored Afghanistan and where is Al-Qaeda and the Taliban building up? He also kept saying that the surge has been successful.
- McCain also played the experience card, saying that Obama didn't have the knowledge or experience in dealing with certain areas of foreign policy. "I don't need any on the job training," McCain said.
Okay, you don't need any training. How about the Pride of Wasilla that is your running-mate?
- I thought Obama's responses were strong. This was McCain's strength and McCain certainly tried to flex his muscle with all of the countries he has been to and with all the leaders he has met with. McCain hit him every chance he got but Obama stood his ground. McCain was trying to slap him around but Obama brought it right back and reinforced his stances. That was strong.
- Obama stressed these points when talking about the bailout package:
No. 1, we've got to make sure that we've got oversight over this whole process; $700 billion, potentially, is a lot of money.
No. 2, we've got to make sure that taxpayers, when they are putting their money at risk, have the possibility of getting that money back and gains, if the market -- and when the market returns.
No. 3, we've got to make sure that none of that money is going to pad CEO bank accounts or to promote golden parachutes.
And, No. 4, we've got to make sure that we're helping homeowners, because the root problem here has to do with the foreclosures that are taking place all across the country.
Who won this debate? Well, this debate was supposed to be about foreign policy. But a significant portion of the debate was dedicated to the financial crisis. If there was a debate McCain could win, it was this one. But his answers were very weak when it came to the financial crisis.
That said, I thought Obama's answers on foreign policy were very strong. He was going up against the man who seems to want to brag about how many leaders he knows and how many countries he's been to instead of talking about real, sensible policy. Obama brought up Afghanistan, which is key because it has been this Republican administration that has forgotten about Afghanistan. A recent report has said that Afghanistan is 15 times deadlier than Iraq for our U.S. soldiers. That is astonishing. Obama tried to put Afghanistan front and center while McCain kept repeating that the surge was working.
I think if you break this debate up into parts, Obama had more key points and better points than McCain did. Obama talked about two key issues: The economy and foreign policy. Obama played off McCain's weakness (the economy) and showed that he can compete with McCain on issues of foreign policy.
However, endorsements are endorsements. The only endorsement that matters is the one from voters on Election Day. So what are Kryzan's chances?
There is plenty of upside and some downside to Kryzan. Blogs have been speculating about how well she will do and as a blogger from the 26th district (you can read my work over at The Albany Project), I have seen how Kryzan has been received in this district. Here are the strengths and weaknesses of Alice Kryzan:
STRENGTHS - Kryzan is largely unscathed. The only two negatives against Kryzan were her involvement as legal representation for the Love Canal polluters and her $250 contribution to Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds - the man she, at first, was running to replace. I pushed both these issues on TAP and they were mentioned in the media. However, they never really stuck. One reason for that was Kryzan was never considered a very serious threat or she was not treated as a very serious threat. Other than those two issues, I found nothing.
- Strong support in larger counties. I contend that there are three different parts to this district (I will explain more later): The first part is Erie and Niagara counties. The second part are the rural counties. The final part is Monroe County. The three largest counties - Erie, Monroe and Niagara - were all won by Kryzan in the Democratic primary. Her biggest win came in Erie, where she won with 48 percent of the vote. If a Democrat is going to win this district, you need to win Erie and Niagara counties. Kryzan proved she can do that. She also proved that has some sort of base in Monroe County.
WEAKNESSES - Fundraising. Maybe the aforementioned backing from DCCC and EMILY's List will help Kryzan in this category. Kryzan's bankroll shows that she has raised $281,298 and loaned her campaign $157,000. Keep in mind that she has been raising money since September 2007. That makes her primary victory even more surprising, considering her two opponents were both well-funded. She will need to change this. She needs to raise money and raise money well. In about six weeks she will be taking another well funded challenger: Republican Chris Lee, who is also a millionaire.
- Rural counties. Jon Powers won all four rural counties with over 700 votes. Powers' biggest win came in Livingston County - arguably the most distant county in NY-26 - where he received 939 votes to Kryzan's 446. Powers had support all across the rural counties and he paid attention and listened to the issues that were important to us. We have yet to see that from Kryzan, although she is making the effort. She has been reaching out to the rural counties in recent days to earn their support. Are Democrats going to win the rural counties? Probably not. But if you ignore them, it could be the difference between a narrow victory or a narrow defeat.
- Party unity. Unlike the primary fight between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, there aren't months in between the primary and general elections. There are only six weeks to go. Kryzan won 42 percent of the vote district-wide. That means in eight weeks (from the primary to the general) Kryzan has to rally the troops around her. She can do it, but it will take effort. So far, she has done all the right things. The only thing she lacks is time.
What does Kryzan need to do to win? First, she needs to win Erie and Niagara counties. Those are the most Democratic counties in the district (Niagara has a slight Democratic enrollment advantage while Erie has a slight Republican enrollment advantage, but won't be hard to go blue in November). Her margin of victory in Erie and Niagara counties will set the tone for how well she needs to do in the other five counties.
Then comes the rural counties. Kryzan won't win these four. If I was idealistic, I might say she could win a few of them. But in reality, Kryzan won't win any of them. However, she needs to minimize her loses in those four counties (Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming). She needs to perform better than Democrats have in the past. She needs to get between 42 percent and 46 percent of the vote in those four counties. It's a reach, but it can be done. With hard work, a true grassroots effort and plenty of outreach you can do well in those four counties.
Lastly, Monroe County. In 2006, Jack Davis lost by over 6,000 votes in Monroe County. He lost the race by 7,000 votes. Davis did not campaign hard in Monroe County (or the rural counties) and paid for it on Election Day. If he focused on the other five counties, he would be our representative. However, he failed to do that and paid the price in 2006. Kryzan needs to avoid that same disaster. She has laid the ground work for success in Erie and Niagara counties. Now she needs to improve in the rural counties and build off her narrow victory in Monroe County. In a year when Monroe County is a battleground (there are two key state senate races that have towns inside NY-26) Kryzan can really use those local races to her advantage.
Can Kryzan do it? It's possible. It will be tough, but it is doable. There is a lot of work to do over the next six weeks. Right now, I would say Kryzan is an underdog. Remember, she was an underdog before. Nothing says she won't be able to pull it off again.
(N.B.: These numbers are as of today's listings, but do not necessarily reflect recent gains by Obama in the polls. State-by-state poll numbers seem to trail national numbers by about a week.)
I'm following four separate handicappers, CNN, the NY Times, Congressional Quarterly (CQ), and the Cook Political Report (Cook). The scenarios are similar, and close enough to make some predictions:
My grandfather was a veteran of World War II. I knew that much. He never talked about it, but my mother had told me that he served during the war and was right on the front lines. My grandfather died in 2000 when I was 13 years old.
Last year I was writing a column for the newspaper I had written for since 2006 and I asked my mom a little more about my grandfather. For the first time in my life I was told that he was a prisoner of war in WWII. I never knew that. I never knew it because my grandfather never talked about it. He didn't use it as some crutch in life. Knowing my grandfather, who was known to me for working on lawnmowers and spending most of his time mowing the lawn or working on his garden, he would have preferred not to talk about it (right up until his death, he had flashbacks) and didn't want to use it as an excuse. He served as a custodian at a local school district for many years and worked every day to make sure that when he died, his family could live comfortably.
That was my grandfather. He was a POW. I guess he could have used that as his sole basis of running a political (or even presidential) campaign. But he didn't. He'd rather not talk about it.
Let me just say that Rachel Maddow fired me up enough to write this today. She made some fine points last night that deserve to be reiterated again today.
There is a reason why my grandfather never talked about the war or his time as a POW. It was revealed to me that my grandfather suffered from a "psychological condition" after returning from the war. He would have flashbacks that eventually calmed down over the years, but they flared up in the last few months of his life when he was in the VA hospital. I assume what he suffered from was Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) based on the symptoms he had and the description of his psychological problems.
It is inexplicable to me why John McCain, on Jay Leno's show last night, would invoke his prisoner of war status during a back-and-forth which included many jokes by Leno about how many homes McCain had. McCain finally said:
"I spent five and a half years in a prison cell, without - I didn't have a house, I didn't have a kitchen table, I didn't have a table, I didn't have a chair. And I spent those five and a half years, because - not because I wanted to get a house when I got out," McCain said.
So I guess that means we should all say, "John McCain was a POW" and just leave the issue alone, right? Wrong.
John McCain's POW status approximately 40 years ago should not be used as a way out of criticism and should not be used as a crutch. John McCain was a POW then. He's a presidential candidate NOW.
Should John McCain be elected president, how else would he apply his POW status for use as an excuse or way out of a problem? If the economy continues to sink under his leadership maybe he will say, "When I was in Hanoi I didn't have any money." Or if gas prices continue to rise he can say, "When I was imprisoned in Vietnam I couldn't buy a tank a gas."
The truth is that McCain and his campaign have used the POW crutch already on more than one occasion. When McCain suggested his wife Cindy should take part in a biker beauty pageant that usually involves women taking off their tops, McCain was criticized for it. The response? "[Americans] know that John McCain's faith and character were tested and forged in ways few can fathom" - a clear reference to McCain's time as a POW. He even invoked being a POW to essentially introduce himself to an audience in Pennsylvania.
However, when he could really use his POW past as a way to support the new G.I. Bill, McCain didn't. You would think someone who was held captive for five and a half years would want to lay off the warmongering. Not John McCain. He wants more of it.
John McCain is running solely on his record in the military and as a POW. That notion is an odd one since McCain has been one of Arizona's U.S. senators since 1987. Before that, he served four years in the House of Representatives. This is a man with 25 years of service in Congress, yet that is hardly mentioned.
What is mentioned though is the five and a half years he spent in Hanoi. And it is mentioned so often, whether as offense or defense, that the McCain campaign is running the POW pond dry. The American people will continue to ask real questions that they want real answers to. It's one thing to be a candidate and play the POW card. It's another to be president. When you are president, being a POW in the late 1960's and early 1970's won't get you out of messes in the late 2000s or early 2010s. That's just the way it is. We expect something out of our presidents. We don't want lip service or excuses. Period.
UPDATE: Let me just add one more point. My grandfather never talked about the war at all, so talking about his POW status was something. The only reason my mom found out was when she was doing a project for school and my grandfather told her. My mom never talked about it until after his death because we just didn't talk about those things. It was something my grandfather kept under his hat. He didn't discuss it in public and it was never questioned.
If John McCain had an ounce of self-respect, he would stop using the POW card as a way out of problems or a way into public office. The truth is that being a POW is not fun. My grandfather had PTSD I assume partially because of his time as a POW. The length of my grandfather's imprisonment is unknown, but I do know this: My grandfather received a number of different honors, including not one but TWO Purple Hearts.
My grandfather was a POW. John McCain was a POW. The only difference is one didn't use it for political gain or to use it as a crutch when it came to answering questions about his lifestyle or his stance on key issues.
The race in the 29th congressional district is heating up with Democratic candidate Eric Massa calling on Republican Rep. Randy Kuhl to use his ties to President George W. Bush to convince Bush into bringing the Congress back instead of having the House Republicans talk to themselves on the House floor.
Yesterday, Congressional candidate and retired Navy Commander Eric Massa called for his opponent, Congressman Randy Kuhl, to stand up to President Bush. Massa asked, in writing, for Rep. Kuhl to request that the President use the power given to him by Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution to call Congress back into session to pass legislation to deal with the energy crisis. "Rather than just complaining to an empty House chamber, Congressman Kuhl should use his personal relationship with President Bush to ask him to call Congress back into session to deal with the problem," Massa said. Instead of acting, Kuhl, plans to spend the next several days ranting to an empty House chamber about gas prices. He then negatively attacked Massa, claiming he "doesn't understand the process ."
"Representative Kuhl believes that I don't understand 'the Washington process.' He's right I don't - and neither do the vast majority of American's who know the 'Washington process' is broken. That's what this election is about - building a new process and starting over. I don't understand why Congress can't take real action to find real solutions to our nation's problems; I don't understand why career Washington politicians like Mr. Kuhl can't get anything done when he's worked so hard to maintain such a close personal relationship with President Bush."
"Initially Mr. Kuhl stated that the lives of our Children and the future of our country were at risk , then he stated that he objected to the release and backfill of any of our Strategic Petroleum reserve because the situation was not urgent , and now he feels that having an argument in an empty Congressional chamber is more important than getting our President to call Congress back to deal with this problem. Washington politicians want the problem for a campaign issue, but they don't want a solution so we can all pay our home heating bill," said retired Navy Commander Eric Massa.
I don't see how this race is even close. Massa is clearly the better candidate. He's a leader and someone who will challenge the status quo - whether that means taking on the Republicans or the dysfunctional parts of our own party. He will make Washington a better place.
Here's more from the Massa press release:
Two of Rep. Kuhl's Republican colleagues, Jeb Hensarling of Texas and Mike Pence of Indiana, believe that asking President Bush to use the authority granted to him by the Constitution is the right "process." They have even sent a letter, just like the one Massa has called on Kuhl to send, asking that President Bush bring Congress back into session to deal with the energy crisis.
"It is a shame Representative Kuhl has decided to engage in negative political showmanship rather than working for a real solution to our nation's energy crisis. The President should call Congress back in session today. We need an open and honest debate for all America to witness. He should immediately direct the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to take all steps possible to strengthen the value of the dollar so that the price of crude oil will immediately drop and we must now start developing plans on how we will help New Yorkers get through winter. Mr. Kuhl has a long record of talking a good game in Western New York, but when he goes to Washington, he prefers to play the DC special interest game."
Representative Kuhl has taken over $65,000 from the oil, gas, and energy corporations while continuing to vote for huge tax handouts for the oil companies.
Again - Randy Kuhl equals status quo. Massa is the change candidate here. We need Eric Massa in D.C. We don't need more of the same.
The Capitol scored the senators in three categories: Style, substance and savvy. The two senators who finished with the best score (119 points) were Flanagan and Schneiderman. This is what The Capitol said about Schneiderman:
"One of the brightest guys in Albany, and, unfortunately, he knows it," said one consultant, "this is a guy who should have been majority leader," said another about the Manhattan Democrat with "big ideas" who so annoyed the then-leaders during his first few years in Albany that they tried to get rid of him by drawing part of his district into the Bronx. A "pure political animal" nicknamed "Schneidermonster," his "very glib" approach "gets people annoyed." But though he grabbed high scores in every category, "he's missing that Obama-Bill Clinton-Joe Bruno element, the quality that allows people to think he's just an average guy."
Not a very flattering assessment of Schneiderman considering he received the best score. Here is the summary on his co-leader Flanagan:
There are bright things ahead for this "smart guy" and son of an Assemblyman who himself moved from the Assembly to the Senate in 2002, and has built a bedrock of "strong constituent services" in his Suffolk district. "Substance was a weakness of his campaign-he won with style and savvy," said one consultant, paying a backhanded compliment to a man who another said has "got it down." But Flanagan's savvy was questioned by one consultant who pointed out that he "lost the minority leadership in the Assembly by one vote, which means somebody lied to him and he didn't figure out his votes." But despite that, and despite another who insisted that he "doesn't reach across the aisle well," there is a feeling that with a little more time to grow in office, Flanagan is "possible governor material for 2014."
Governor material in 2014? That is a possibility considering the lack of stars in the New York State Republican Party.
The senator I like out of the 15 given? Sen. Antoine Thompson. He has proven his worth and has really done a great job filling in for Byron Brown, who gave up his state senate seat to become mayor of Buffalo. Thompson received a score of 113, which was one of the better scores of the 15 senators chosen.
One I also think deserves mentioning is Sen. Darrel Aubertine. Aubertine has a lot of potential. Once we secure the New York State Senate and waiting a couple of years (or terms), Aubertine could be a challenger for the 23rd congressional district seat. If there is anyone in the North Country that could win that seat, it is Aubertine.
Who do you think could have a great political career out of the New York State Senate?
Candidates in the 21st congressional district's Democratic primary have their campaign finance filings out. Tracey Brooks, Phil Steck, Paul Tonko and Darius Shahinfar all came out with rather strong filings, with Brooks leading the pack and Steck, Tonko and Shahinfar close together.
Brooks raised $201,863.46 and has $257,284.84 cash on hand after the second quarter of fundraising in 2008. This cycle, Brooks has raised just over $380,000. Of that total, $347,700.91 came from individuals - an amazing 91.4 percent of Brooks' total contributions. Brooks had this to say about her fundraising figures:
"The outpouring of financial and volunteer support from people across the entire Capital Region demonstrates that our message of change is resonating with the voters," said Brooks. "I will continue to spend each day talking with the voters about the issues most important to them, such as putting an end to sky-rocketing gas prices, providing affordable health care for all, ending the war in Iraq and protecting a woman's right to choose."
Brooks has also had great success with her ActBlue page. She has been recognized on multiple occasions by ActBlue for her fundraising capabilities.
Steck raked in $121,626 from donors and has $168,471.12 cash on hand. He has received $116,876.00 from individuals, accounting 96 percent of all his contributions. Steck has raised over $277,000 this election cycle and has loaned his campaign $50,000.
Cash on hand is the important figure and there isn't a huge divide between the candidates. Brooks has the lead, but only by about $89,000 over Steck. The gap between Steck and Tonko is very small, with Steck having about $57,000 more than Tonko. Shahinfar is in a somewhat distant fourth.
The money numbers here tell the story. This primary is very close. Brooks is in the lead with cash, but it's not a massive lead. Over the next two months, these candidates will be working hard to win the primary. It will get interesting, if it wasn't already.
I must preface this post by saying Bill Mahoney of NYPIRG has put in a lot of time and effort to stay up-to-the-minute on all the campaign finance filings. He is a great asset here in New York.
- Phillip has the details on the numbers in SD-25. One of the questions about Connor was how much he had in the bank since that was not included in his press release. Connor has $82,962.92 cash on hand. While the individual fundraising numbers are great to look at, how much you have the bank matters. When Dan Squadron has $291,000 in the bank, that tells you something.
Roy Simon knows that this is an uphill battle. Before Dean Skelos became Senate Majority Leader in June, Skelos was still a powerful figure in the Senate. He was deputy majority leader and reaped the rewards of such a position. He brought home millions in member items for his district and he has over a million dollars cash on hand for his reelection campaign. Skelos is the most powerful man in the Senate - for now.
After I had analyzed the Long Island Senate races, I received an e-mail from Roy Simon. Simon said that he was "planning to give Mr. Skelos the surprise of his life." He also sent me his resume along with a biography of himself. Here is that bio of Simon:
Roy Simon is the Howard Lichtenstein Distinguished Professor of Legal Ethics at Hofstra law school, and is the Director of Hofstra's Institute for the Study of Legal Ethics. He received his B.A. from Williams College and his J.D. from New York University, where he was Editor-in-Chief of the N.Y.U. Law Review. He clerked for United States District Judge Robert R. Merhige in Richmond, Virginia, then practiced law at Jenner & Block in Chicago. He began teaching at Washington University School of Law in St. Louis in 1983 and joined the Hofstra faculty in 1992.
Prof. Simon annually writes Simon's New York Code of Professional Responsibility Annotated (now in its eleventh edition) and (together with Professor Stephen Gillers of N.Y.U.) annually compiles and edits Regulation of Lawyers: Statutes and Standards (now in its nineteenth edition).
Professor Simon is Vice Chair and Reporter for the New York State Bar=s Committee on Standards of Professional Conduct (COSAC), which drafted comprehensive revisions to the New York Code of Professional Responsibility. Professor Simon is a Vice-Chair of the New York State Bar Association's Committee on Professional Ethics (on which he has served since 1995), and has been a Member since 1993 of the Nassau County Bar Committee on Professional Ethics, and a Member since 2005 of the New York City Bar Committee on Professional Responsibility. He has written a monthly column for the New York Professional Responsibility Report since 1998 and is an active consultant to lawyers and law firms, as well as an occasional expert witness.
He has been married to his wife, Karen (a Long Island native) since 1977, and has four grown children, all of whom are concerned about education, the environment, and social justice.
I have had the chance to speak to Simon twice over the telephone. He is very smart and is learning what he has to do to run a strong and efficient campaign. In the second phone call, I conducted an interview with Simon that ran nearly an hour. He talked about himself, his campaign and even presented an initial platform.
After I had 
