There will be much number-crunching tomorrow, but preliminary numbers (at least in Virginia) show that GOP turnout remained the same as last year, but Democratic turnout collapsed. This is a base problem, and this is what Democrats better take from tonight:
1.If you abandon Democratic principles in a bid for unnecessary "bipartisanship", you will lose votes.
2.If you water down reform in favor of Blue Dogs and their corporate benefactors, you will lose votes.
3.If you forget why you were elected -- health care, financial services, energy policy and immigration reform -- you will lose votes.
Tonight proved conclusively that we're not going to turn out just because you have a (D) next to your name, or because Obama tells us to. We'll turn out if we feel it's worth our time and effort to vote, and we'll work hard to make sure others turn out if you inspire us with bold and decisive action.
The choice is yours. Give us a reason to vote for you, or we sit home. And you aren't going to make up the margins with conservative voters. They already know exactly who they're voting for, and it ain't you.
I actually think the problem isn't related to any of that. You can't look at local and state elections through a national prism. As a friend said about NY-23, everyone in the nation can talk about health care, but they are talking about jobs (up there).
You have to start with the candidates. Jon Corzine was weak. His popularity was not there and he was suffering similar to how Governor David Paterson is struggling. In these tough economic times, it is hard to be governor of a state. States and municipalities are feeling the heat of the economic recession. As a result, voters feel the need to change things.
Virginia was odd. It reminded me of NY-26 in a way. Here you have Creigh Deeds (Alice Kryzan in NY-26) winning the Democratic primary by surprise only to lose the general election. Deeds didn't poll particularly well at all throughout the race, so his loss was expected. When that is the case, who is going to get excited about that?
The three points Kos came up with are great for a House or Senate race, but not for a gubernatorial race or for other local and state races. We are talking about a whole other set of issues. Instead of health care, we are talking budget cuts. Instead of Blue Dogs, we are worried about the Hiram Monserrates and Pedro Espadas of the world who seek to throw a legislature into disarray.
It does not surprise me that a national blogger has such a take on a state-level race. While I think the issues listed are important, I think they aren't relevant to Corzine or Deeds. We lost New Jersey because of the economic state of the state. We lost Virginia because the candidate that won the Democratic primary was running second the whole race. States are facing tough times right now. We know that in New York and no other state is closer to New York in terms of issues like New Jersey is. We can relate. And we see New Jersey as a red flag for our own elections in 2010.
Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee, leads with 20 percent. Democratic candidate Bill Owens comes in at 17 percent and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman also has 17 percent.
In case you don't know who the Club For Growth is, they are a pretty conservative group that wants to see the Bush tax cuts made permanent and believes in expanding free trade. So having this group come up with a poll that has such a diverse opinion of all three candidates is worth noting.
But like any of these polls, take it for what it's worth. There were only 300 people polled and the margin of error was over five percent.
The poll summary also shows the problems that the Republicans and conservatives (and perhaps Conservatives) will have as this race progresses. Those who are conservative Republicans might abandon their party and put ideology first by supporting Hoffman, who has separated himself as the conservative in this race while labeling Owens and Scozzafava as "liberals."
It does open up a chance for Owens to take the moderate vote (and apparently just as much of the conservative vote as Hoffman has) and win this election. I know people have certain opinions of Owens, but after learning more about him, he's not a bad candidate. (More on Owens later.)
Also out today is a new ad from the DCCC targeting Dede Scozzafava. This is in response to the ads sent out yesterday by the NRCC tying Owens to Pelosi in an attempt to, like Hoffman, make Owens look liberal.
Today is Primary Day. Even though there isn't a congressional primary or a statewide primary, there are a few contests where some high-profile primaries are taking place that pit incumbents or well-known candidates against lesser known opponents.
Albany-Mayor: The battle in the state's capital in the Democratic primary puts Mayor Jerry Jennings up against Corey Ellis. As Soundpolitic has reported, the race is closer than it has been. Ellis has run an uphill battle against the entrenched Jennings, but if there is one thing you can take away from the primary in Albany, it's that such an entrenched individual is getting a challenge. Ellis is doing surprisingly well against Jennings, but he still might come up short.
Buffalo-Mayor: The race in the Democratic primary between Mayor Byron Brown and Mickey Kearns has turned into quite a battle. Brown has a lot going against him. He has scandal after scandal working against him, but the poll numbers still show a small lead for him. The major theme of this race has been old leadership versus new leadership. Brown's city government and political operation have crossed paths one too many times and that is why Kearns stressed openness and transparency and a government free of the tactics that Brown has become known for.
There are also multiple primaries in New York City, as expected. There is a battle for Public Advocate. The other races on the ballot include a primary to decide who will replace Comptroller Bill Thompson, who is running for mayor. Another big race is who will win the Manhattan District Attorney's race. The primary will likely decide who is the next DA, since there is no Republican running.
From the New York Times:
In the race for public advocate, the best-known candidate is Mark Green, who held the post for two terms until he ran for mayor in 2001. His chief rivals are Councilman Bill de Blasio of Brooklyn, who has broad institutional support from groups like unions and the Working Families Party; Councilman Eric N. Gioia of Queens, who leads in fund-raising and has been endorsed by several unions and the borough's Democratic organization; and Norman Siegel, a civil liberties lawyer who has run for the office twice before.
Four City Council members are competing for the nomination for comptroller. Three of them, Melinda R. Katz, John C. Liu and David I. Weprin, are from Queens, dividing support among the borough's potent Democratic organization. The fourth candidate, David Yassky, is from Brooklyn.
In Manhattan, which has more enrolled Democrats, about 780,000, than any other borough except Brooklyn, three candidates - Richard M. Aborn, Leslie Crocker Snyder and Cyrus R. Vance Jr. - are locked in a vitriolic race for district attorney. All of them at one time worked for Mr. Morgenthau as an assistant district attorney.
I am sure there are other primaries. I know I have some Republican primaries locally that I'm watching, but nothing to the level of what we see in Albany, Buffalo and New York City today.
What's going on in your area? Any big primaries we should know about?
If so, discuss it in the comments. Would love to hear the stories about other primaries from across the state.
Defeating Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown should be a priority for all progressives in Buffalo and for progressives in New York. The reason? His ties to Steve Pigeon, which have been well documented.
The challenger to Brown is Mickey Kearns, a Buffalo Common Councilmember who started out as a long-shot to win because of Brown's perceived strong incumbent advantage.
According to our scientific 2 On Your Side and SurveyUSA poll, Brown has 48% of the vote, Kearns has 47%, and 5% are undecided.
There is a 4.2% margin of error.
580 likely voters in the City of Buffalo were part of the telephone survey last Wednesday and Thursday.
When you breakdown the numbers and look at the demographics, Brown leads among women 51% to Kearns' 43%. Among men, however, Kearns leads Brown 52% to 44%.
The divide is even deeper among race. Brown leads Kearns 86% to 13% among black voters. While Kearns leads among white voters 64% to 29%.
Two key issues also split voters. When asked about creating jobs in Buffalo, 56% select Brown over 39% for Kearns. But on the controversial topic of One Sunset 86% choose Kearns over 12% for Brown.
If you asked anyone in Buffalo a few months ago whether or not this would be a race, they probably would have said no. While Kearns was a known opponent, he didn't have a lot of traction. He isn't a bad option, but Brown is a force in Buffalo politics. That put Kearns in a tough spot.
With all of the problems and revelations involving Brown lately, it is hard for Brown to hold on to that strong advantage he had not so long ago. This is a race and everyone knows it.
One of the things I have heard for a long time about Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown is that he uses City Hall employees as staff for his campaign and political purposes.
Today, James Heaney of The Buffalo Newsexposed this questionable tactic as e-mails surfaced from a City Hall official asking employees to volunteer eight hours of their time at a Brown for Mayor campaign office.
Subject: Volunteer opportunities to Re-elect Mayor Byron W. Brown
Community Services Team:
I sent an email regarding volunteer opportunities to assist in the re-election of Mayor Byron W. Brown on Monday and this is a follow-up with updated information.
This week, your help is needed at the campaign headquarters from 5:00 pm - 9:00 pm. Wednesday-Friday.
Again, select either Saturday or Sunday for a 4 hour block to volunteer your time.
Please make sure you sign in and that you work until 9:00 pm during the week and minimally 4 hours on the weekend. Your services are needed minimally 8 hours per week.
"Campaign hours on the weekend (Saturday and Sunday) are from 10:00 am - 9 pm.
Next week, Tuesday, June 9th, everyone is expected to be at the Headquarters after work ; a 4:00 pm, 4:30 pm or 5 pm until 9 pm. This is a busy day as it is the first official day for petitions. There is a lot of work to be done and your help is needed.
From that point on, Community Services team will be at Headquarters on Tuesday until 9:00 pm where you will receive your assignment. If you are unable to volunteer on that Tuesday or a weekend, please notify myself and Dana Bobinchek at the email above and accommodations will be made for you to make up the time during the week.
Due to the importance and volume of activity, it is important that that we all contribute to the re-election of Mayor Byron W. Brown. Also, recruit friends and family to assist.
Please respond that you have received this e-mail. Let me know the days and times you will work this week. If I don't hear from you by Wednesday, I will contact you.
Thanks. Tanya
Keep in mind a few things: This e-mail was sent to city employees. This wasn't sent to just any average citizen that would be interesting in aiding Brown's re-election campaign. This was sent directly to employees of Tanya Perrin-Johnson's department, the Department of Community Services, asking them to "volunteer" their time.
But if you read the e-mail, as Heaney pointed out, it doesn't sound much like a volunteer opportunity as the subject of the e-mail would make you think. The text of the e-mail makes it sound like something where, if you don't show, you will be contacted. In other words, either help out or get a talking to.
Mickey Kearns, a Buffalo Common Councilmember and a Democratic challenger to Brown for Mayor, has questioned in the past the tactics employed by Brown and the use of City Hall employees as campaign staffers. With the Buffalo News article today, Kearns came out strongly against Brown's use of City Hall employees for campaign purposes.
Speaking at a noontime press conference on the steps of City Hall Kearns, the South District Council member said Buffalo News revelations of internal e-mails requiring service at Brown's campaign headquarters indicate that civil servants are being "bullied and muscled" to work on his behalf.
He promised that if he wins the September Democratic primary and November general election, he will ban any similar activity. And he labeled "coercive" the story's revelations that Human Resources Commissioner Tanya Perrin-Johnson e-mailed city employees to outline her expectations they will volunteer a minimum of eight hours per week.
"Employees should not be compelled by any city commissioner or department head to work on the mayor's campaign period," he said. "Employees should only be expected to do their jobs."
In his first real criticism of Brown in his so far quiet campaign, Kearns said the mayor has presided over "one of the most corrupt" administrations in recent memory.
If this practice isn't illegal already, it should be. Using taxpayer-funded employees for political purposes is not a practice that should be condoned or taken lightly. It is an abuse of power and abuse of taxpayer money. It is one thing for city employees to volunteer on their own. It is another for them to be pressured into it (whether that was the intent or not, it sure sounds like it in the e-mail) and told that they are expected to meet certain minimums for their time. That isn't why these employees took the job. They took it to make a living, not to be campaign staff for the mayor.
Shortly after noon, Mayor Bloomberg officially reserved himself on term limits, declaring that he will sign a bill to extend the current limit from two, four-year terms to three if the Council passes it and will then run for re-election next fall.
As a rationale, he cited the Wall Street mess and a generalized "crisis of confidence" in the economy, adding:
"I can tell you the enormity of the challenges ahead cannot be underestimated...This is not the time for fantasy. That's what helped get our nation into the mess that we now confront."
"...It's a challenge I want to take on for the people of New York."
Bloomberg said he will ask the voters to look at his "record of independent leadership and decide whether I've earned another term."
That is an interesting rationale considering Bloomberg, as mayor, didn't exactly do nothing to save New York City from such an economic crisis (not that he did anything to necessarily cause it either) so he is really grasping at straws there. But if that's his rationale, it looks like he is going to run with it.
This was the most interesting quote (again from Liz):
The mayor refused to answer questions about whether he intends to run as an independent in 2009 ("This is not a time for politics," he said), and also insisted: "This has nothing to do with keeping me occupied."
Not a time for politics? When you run for mayor, that is a political decision. So this whole "I'm running and ignoring the term limits" thing is political.
I have always admired New York City because of their term limits. In my rural county, Republicans could get elected at a young age and stay in power until they die if they wanted. We don't have term limits here.
I don't really have an opinion on Bloomberg because I haven't had to live under his rule. I do have an opinion about term limits and I believe that they are good for democracy. There is a reason why we have term limits for the presidency. Obviously that's a much higher seat than Bloomberg's, but the goal is still the same. If New York City has term limits in place (which they do), they should be followed. They shouldn't be ignored because a politician feels that he has done a good enough job to bypass term limits and run for a third time.
