Still Time to Make Calls

by: Roatti

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 17:12:42 PM EDT

https://call.democrats.org/cam...

Just made calls for NY-19.  And you can also talk about downballot races, like Mike Kaplowitz, Tony Avella, Didi Barrett,  or David Carlucci  to the voters who answer, if you line up Congressional and Senate districts.  GOTV!!!!

Election Prediction Open Thread

by: Roatti

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:12:48 AM EDT

The categories are:

NY-Sen: Schumer vs. Townsend percentage
NY-Sen: Gillibrand vs. DioGuardi percentage
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
NY-AG: Schneiderman vs. Donovan
NY-Comptroller: DiNapoli vs. Wilson
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-20: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
NY-24: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan

Here are my predictions:

US Senate: 58 D, 42 R:  Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way.  Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate.  I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents.  I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.

US House: 218 D 217 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994.  It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1.  Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.  

NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-AG: Schneiderman wins, 53-47
NY-Comptroller: Dinapoli wins, 52-48
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie.  Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11.  This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue.  But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote.  He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-20:Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
NY-24: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.  
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.  
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42.  That district is just too Republican.  
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.  
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33.   Although  I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.  

Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally, and several governorships.  But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory in the waiting.  

What do you think?  Go on the record now for bragging rights!

Election Prediction Open Thread

by: Roatti

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:10:01 AM EDT

The categories are:

NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-23: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
NY-24: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan

Here are my predictions:

US Senate: 58 D, 42 R:  Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way.  Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate.  I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents.  I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.

US House: 220 D 218 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994.  It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1.  Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.  

NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie.  Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11.  This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue.  But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote.  He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.  
NY-23: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
NY-24: Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.  
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42.  That district is just too Republican.  
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.  
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33.   Although  I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.  

Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally , and several governorships.  But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory int he waiting.  

What do you think?  Go on the record now for bragging rights!

Live Blogging US Senate Debate - Gillibrand & DioGuardi - Troy, NY

by: Andrew C. White

Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 18:54:27 PM EDT

Debate should start shortly. They are doing sound checks, etc...

Two minute warning just issued...

Thanks to Todd Beeton of the Gillibrand campaign for arranging access for us. Mets102 will be live blogging at DailyKos from a secure remote location.

Update 1

And it's on.

Kirsten Gillibrand opens and goes to the heart of her own agenda and DioGuardi's failures.

DioGuardi runs over his time.  

Get Involved!

by: Roatti

Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 15:12:44 PM EDT

Thank you for joining ACT NOW as we team up with Organizing for America and a number of local progressive organizations to reach out to voters on behalf of Congressman John Hall.

On Saturday October 16th, we will be canvassing in Peekskill and on Sunday, October 17th, we will be canvassing in Beacon, both heavily Democratic areas that will need to show a strong turnout on Election Day.

On Saturday, we will be meeting at the information booth in Grand Central at 11:15AM and taking the train to Peekskill. On Sunday, we will be meeting at the Grand Central Information booth at 10:20AM and taking the train to Beacon. We will return to the city by 7PM. Round-trip off-peak tickets to Peekskill cost $20.

On Sunday, we will be meeting at Grand Central at 10:15AM, to return by 7PM. Round-trip off-peak tickets to Beacon cost $26.

If this ticket fare is a hardship to you, please let us know. We don't want anyone to miss out on these important canvasses, and can work out the cost.

Please RSVP below with your full details, so that we can send you meeting information. If you would like to meet us in Peekskill or Beacon, please indicate so on your form.

Note: This canvass is geared for first-time canvassers, so please, come along even if you haven't canvassed before and bring your friends, too.

I know it sneaks up on you, but the election is actually less than 3 weeks away.  We cannot afford to sit on our hands and let the Christian Nationalist Party take over our congress.  

Update: ACT NOW has informed me that they will also be handing out lit for Mike Kaplowitz in the contiguous parts of SD-40 and NY-19; yet another reason to come!

A word on our priorities as a movement, from a victim of the opposition.

by: Adama D. Brown

Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 16:33:11 PM EDT

I, too, am not donating cash to Democratic candidates this year. Not because I don't want to. Because I can't.

In 2008, I donated about $1400 to Obama. I donated about $750 to my chosen congressional candidate (who lost). I donated about $250 to my State Senate candidate. And a couple hundred more to local county committees around the area.

I lost my job at the end of 2008 thanks to the Bush economy. And thanks to the Republicans, aside from a couple months spent working a temp job at a foundry, I remain unemployed 21 months later. It's been the worst 21 months of my life. If you've never been unemployed, you can't possibly understand the constant, crushing sensation of fear and uncertainty that comes with it, lurking under the surface of every day. It's the realization that your old job isn't coming back, and you have no idea how you're going to find another one. It's the feeling that finding any job that features dignity and fair pay, let alone being in your professional field, is too much to hope for.

The Republican Party has done everything within it's power first to crash the economy--whether they knew that would be the result or not--and then knowingly done all they can to prevent any kind of recovery from happening on Obama's watch. The Republicans would rather that people like me worry about how we're going to make it through the winter, and be subject to the pain, fear, and depression that comes with being unable to make a living, rather than give one inch in their quest for total power in this country. I had six years of hard work building a career as a technology journalist taken away from me, and now I have someone trying to hold my entire future hostage.

People sometimes wonder why I take such offense at the bashing of Democrats, or the periodic announcements on the blogosphere that so and so isn't going to vote, or give money, unless their pet issue is handled immediately. It's because I see one set and one set only of enemies, who are the enemies of everyone here. It's not Barack Obama, it's not Harry Reid, it's not elected Democrats of any stripe. It's not even the spineless Blue Dogs, but rather the people who the Blue Dogs are afraid of.

The simple truth is this: everyone who isn't pulling together and fighting the Republicans is helping them, one way or another. The Republican Party is a threat to our entire way of life, a rabid animal that needs to be put down, and anyone who can't or won't make common cause for that purpose cannot be taken seriously in this political climate. The 2000 election and eight years of Bush has made the belief that "they're all the same" a laughable soap bubble, no matter how much some might try to spin it otherwise.

The ideological differences between Democrats are microscopic in comparison to the single, unified ideology that drives the Republican Party: opposition to anyone and anything that isn't them. If we ever want to insure that Americans can have decent jobs that provide for a future, let alone achieve serious progress in this country, then there is nothing more important.

I would rather be working a decent job, any job. But because I can't, I'm devoting all the time and energy I can muster into volunteering to get more Democrats elected, and I ask you to do the same.

$#*! My Republican Leadership Says

by: davesnyd

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 08:43:04 AM EDT

As of yesterday, with Mike Castle, they are officially "eating their young". Maybe not so young in Castle's case-- he is 71, after all-- but the basic point is correct.

The question is: how and why did they get here, what does it mean for them in the long term, and what are they going to do about it?

More after the fold.

NY-Gov: Cuomo Releases Second Policy Book, on Energy

by: Roatti

Fri Aug 06, 2010 at 17:24:09 PM EDT

I'm loving the wonkiness coming out of the Cuomo camp these days.  After the 250-page "New NY Agenda," the campaign has now released Power NY, a 150-pager on energy policy.  

None of this is truly revolutionary in clean energy circles, but it's incredibly heartening to have a gubernatorial candidate embrace what is largely consensus among clean energy policy supporters as stated policy.  It's a pretty comprehensive plan involving efficiency, smart grid, and increased use of renewables.  Definitly worth a read.

It's Lazio. It's Over.

by: Roatti

Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 17:29:10 PM EDT

So let's pop that Chanpagne.  I'm officially calling this race for Cuomo.  Barring some huge unknown scandal, it's over.

Will we Finally Have a Policy Wonk for a Governor?

by: Roatti

Mon May 24, 2010 at 18:01:15 PM EDT

There's lots to digest among these 250 pages of policy details, but overall it's clear that Cuomo wants to be governor because he wants to govern.  On first glance, most of these proposals sound great, but mostly everything is subject to legislative approval, and to put it nicely, our legislature doesn't really give a rat's ass about transforming New York for the better, especially if that transformation will step on the toes of some powerful special interests, as many proposals in Cuomo's plan seem likely to do.  

It's also gutsy of Cuomo to announce such a sweepingly detailed plan considering how far ahead he is in the polls.  The cautious thing to do would be to stay mum on specifics because it would give his opponents less to attack him with.  Personally, I'm glad Cuomo isn't acting cautiously at this early stage because if we're going to drain the Albany swamp, we need to throw caution to the wind.

In terms of the substance of the plan, here are a few first impressions:

* There is a lot of great stuff on Albany reform.  Cuomo is promising to veto any gerrymandered redistricting and also a reform of campaign finance.  I hope he sticks to his guns when the pressure mounts on this, as the Legislature is not going to accept this without being dragged kicking and screaming.

* There are some things in here that are going to not please the public employee unions, like a wage freeze for all state workers.  The public employee unions are going to have to make sacrifices along with everyone else in the state in these dire economic times, but they aren't going to take it easily.  Although I applaud Cuomo's willingness to ask for sacrifices from his own base, I personally disagree with a wage freeze and a new pension tier.  A smarter move would be to to pay state employees more upfront and not give any kind of pension.  Public employes can contribute to their own retirement accounts out of their paychecks like private sector workers, and in compensation for the removal of pensions, those paychecks should be substantially increased.  There's a reason why NY is going bankrupt and that reason is pensions.  And pensions also contribute to lower up-front pay, which discourages attracting young talent and discourages mobility in the public sector labor market.  Need evidence?  Only 14% of the state's workers are under 35.  

* Cuomo is also calling for a constitutional convention to fix a lot of the structural problems with the way the state operates.  This is a good idea.

* I'm very glad that Cuomo is running on municipal consolidation.  Everybody agrees that the vast number of local government bodies are the driving force behind the inexorable rise in property taxes, and it would be good to build upon last year's municipal consolidation statute.  Cuomo also wants to clean house with the redundant state agencies and authorities, and more power to him.

* Great stuff on infrastructure, including creating a state infrastructure bank, although the plan does not specify how much capital will be used to seed it.  

* I would have liked some more specifics on the environmental agenda, but I doubt Cuomo could be worse than Paterson in this regard.  

Those are my first impressions.  What are yours?

SD-38: Assemblywoman Ellen Jaffee considering State Senate run

by: cliffweathers

Thu May 20, 2010 at 22:25:17 PM EDT

The meeting of the Executive Committee of the Rockland Democratic Committee also featured three other candidates, Clarkstown Town Clerk David Carlucci, Tuxedo Town Supervisor Peter Dolan, and State Parole Officer Grant Valentine.

Jaffee said that she will decide to run in a matter of days. She has no notable opponents for her State Assembly seat.

On the Republican side, Rockland County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef is expected to run. However, a local Tea Party movement is rumored to be fielding its own candidate.  

State Republicans melting down this year

by: simonstl

Wed May 05, 2010 at 07:49:19 AM EDT

I had a pretty strong sense that the New York State Republican Party was as messed up as the Democrats, only without the voter registration advantage or the bench of candidate possibilities.

This article pretty much confirms it:

With the Republican State Convention approaching, the party is plagued by infighting, short of money and struggling to assemble a competitive slate of statewide candidates for the fall, leaving many party leaders worried that they are poorly positioned to exploit what might be the most favorable political climate for New York Republicans in years.

The national party is so concerned that Michael Steele, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, traveled to Manhattan recently for an emergency meeting with Mr. Cox.

When Michael Steele needs to have a meeting that isn't about Michael Steele's own fading prospects...

I was polled last night

by: Jrathman

Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 10:57:54 AM EDT

2010 = Anti-Incumbent

by: Roatti

Mon Apr 05, 2010 at 17:46:03 PM EDT

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New York voters finds that 69% think it would be better if most incumbents in the state legislature were defeated this November. Just 12% say it would be better for the state if most of the incumbents were reelected. Another 18% aren't sure.
Only 22% believe their own local legislator deserves reelection this year. Forty-nine percent (49%) say their local representative does not deserve reelection, and 29% more are undecided.

However, removing some of these incumbents via Democratic Primary Challenges might be a heavier lift, likely thanks to the downstate machine apparatus:

Unaffiliated voters (64%) are much more likely to believe their own legislator does not deserve reelection than Republicans (52%) and Democrats (39%).

There is definitely a wave out there but the tricky part is going to be riding it successfully.  

NY-Gov: Freakjob Carl Paladino Compares Health Care Reform to 9/11

by: Roatti

Tue Mar 23, 2010 at 19:12:38 PM EDT

But there is a third contestant in the race for the Christian Nationalist GOP nomination.  That would be eccentric millionaire Montgomery Burns Carl Paladino.  And Carl Paladino just compared the passage of Health Care Reform to 9/11

"The day that bill was passed will be remembered just as 9-11 was remembered in history," Paladino told Curtis Sliwa during an early morning interview on AM-970. "It was an attempt by these people in Washington to defy the Constitution."

9/11 family member Donna Marsh O'Connor said this in response:

Donna Marsh O'Connor, whose pregnant, 29-year-old daughter was killed at the World Trade Center during the attacks... was disguested, "It is despicable if in someone's mind those events are analogous. That is not a person who should be a leader of our country, of a state, of a city, of any community."

How Mr. Paladino even sleeps at night is beyond my comprehension.

A Coffee Party Letter to the Editor

by: Soundpolitic

Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 15:06:10 PM EST

Today, I had a Letter to the Editor appear in my local newspaper, the Altamont Enterprise regarding my organization of the Albany County Coffee Party as part of the National Coffee Party Kickoff to take place this Saturday, March 13.

I feel compelled to re-post the the letter in its entirety here for two reasons.  First, because the Enterprise never puts its Letters to the Editor on it's website.

Second, because the final few paragraphs of my 1,776 word letter were cut off, along with any byline to attribute the letter to me.  You can discern it was written by me in a small story deeper in the paper.  I don't hold it against them; the Enterprise is a top-notch, independently owned local paper that gives a huge forum to letter writers every week, so a mistake here and there is forgivable.

Without further adieu, here's what I wrote, along with the headline:

Soundpolitic Sundays: Clean Cup, Move Down Edition

by: Soundpolitic

Sun Feb 28, 2010 at 14:46:31 PM EST

Wait.  This isn't a rollercoaster.  It's the Tea Cups!  How fitting...since this edition of Soundpolitic Sundays sees the author taking a wild ride at a local Tea Party meeting.  I attended the get-together on Saturday of last weekend.

My excuses for not getting this up earlier is twofold.  First, there's a lot of back-story to what's going to be said here that I used last week's edition to take care of.  Not a very good excuse, but check it out if you missed it.

My second excuse?  It's the best and most obvious one: it took a week for my head to stop spinning.

Dean Skelos has Discovered Spam

by: Roatti

Tue Jan 05, 2010 at 17:30:52 PM EST

2011 is going to be a year of PROGRESS for New York State. With your help, we will take back the New York State Senate and begin to change the current direction our state government has taken!

2010 is going to be a year of HOPE for New York State. With your help, the voters will send a very clear message on Election Day - they will reject the policies of increasing the size and role of government and elect Republicans throughout the state who understand the need for the private sector to create jobs and grow our way out of this mess.

Today is a day of ACTION: we are one State Senator away from reversing this trend and I would like you to join me at our 2010 Launch Reception in New York City on January 11, where we will begin the process of change leading up to Election Day in November (see the invitation below).

In order to make this change happen, we will need to raise the funds necessary to organize and get our message out - the same message that New York voters responded to this past Election Day. I have asked Governor Pataki's former Finance Director, Patrick Donohue, who helped raise over $500 million for worthy candidates over the past 15 years, to help organize this fundraising effort. He and his team will be contacting you over the next couple of days to follow up about your participation in our fundraising launch event on January 11th. Please RSVP directly with Crystal Padley at (212) 576-1197 or send an email to rsvp@maxdonor.com. VIP tickets to the reception are $1,000 per person and general tickets are $250 per person. We will also have a private Host Committee dinner afterward for those who are committing to raise and/or donate from $5,000 up to $50,000 (see details below).

Thank you for your continued commitment to the principles of cutting taxes, responsible budgeting and a less expensive government - these are the principles that will not only Take Back the Senate in 2010, but they will help us ensure a robust New York State for our children and grandchildren in 2011 and beyond.

All the best,
Dean

Senator Dean G. Skelos
New York State Senate Republican Leader
NYS Senate Republican Campaign Committee
PO Box 7229
Albany, NY 12224-0747

It's funny, because I wasn't aware that the Senate GOP needed any pesky things like elections to take back their majority.  Info on reporting spam to the FTC:

If you get spam email that you think is deceptive, forward it to spam@uce.gov. The FTC uses the spam stored in this database to pursue law enforcement actions against people who send deceptive email.

And btw, nothing says hope and progress like Dean Skelos.

Obama to Paterson: Don't

by: simonstl

Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 23:39:24 PM EDT

I agree with the President that it would probably be better for all concerned if Governor Paterson didn't run again. However, I really have to wonder if Obama's regular involvement in New York politics is a good thing:

The decision to ask Mr. Paterson to step aside was proposed by political advisers to Mr. Obama, but approved by the president himself, one of the administration officials said....

The move against a sitting Democratic governor represents an extraordinary intervention into a state political race by the president, and is a delicate one, given that Mr. Paterson is one of only two African-American governors in the nation....

"The message the White House wanted to send - that it wants Paterson to step aside - was delivered," said the Democratic operative, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions were intended to be confidential. "He is resistant."

I think we'd better build a much more thriving democratic political culture in New York State, one that doesn't invite such tinkering.

NY-SEN: Joe Trippi apologizes again, means it a little more this time.

by: Adama D. Brown

Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 02:04:02 AM EDT

In the process, he also confirmed that his staffers were astroturfing Daily Kos with pro-Maloney and anti-Gillibrand comments and diaries. And a little research shows that many of the same users also registered here on TAP. Details below.