It did not take long for the NRCC to announce their support of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman after their candidate, Dede Scozzafava, abruptly dropped out of the race. They made the announcement earlier today, with Congressman Pete Sessions (R-TX), head of the NRCC, Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority WHIP Eric Cantor (R-VA) releasing a joint statement calling on Republicans to support Hoffman in the 23rd congressional district.
Here is part of the statement (H/T to TPM):
"With Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspending her campaign, we urge voters to support Doug Hoffman's candidacy in New York's 23rd Congressional District.
"He is the only active candidate in the race who supports lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and opposes Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government-run healthcare, more government and less jobs.
"We look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation."
But this is a different tune that the Republicans are singing. It wasn't long ago that they were defending Scozzafava and attacking Hoffman, saying he lacked "integrity" and "cross party appeal" to win.
Here are some quotes from the NRCC giving their assessment of Hoffman:
"Fortunately, the local Republican county chairs had the foresight to see that Doug Hoffman lacked the integrity and qualities needed to be elected to anything - let alone Congress," Lindsay added. [The Hill, 9/28/09]
The national GOP acknowledges Hoffman and his moneyed supporters make their job harder, but they emphasize Scozzafava is still the favorite.
Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the NRCC, said Hoffman's political calculus doesn't add up.
"We're pleased that the Republican county chairs in New York had the foresight to not even consider Hoffman among the final three candidates, and the Washington-based endorsements and misleading political ads that are meant for his benefit will ultimately backfire on his futile sour-grapes campaign," Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/03/09]
The National Republican Congressional Committee bristles at Mr. Hoffman's campaign, with a spokesman arguing that he's "running a smoke-and-mirrors campaign that has absolutely no path to victory and is based entirely on Washington-based endorsements that carry no weight among voters in central and northern New York."
NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said Mr. Hoffman doesn't even technically live in the district and also said Mr. Hoffman had promised to back the Republican candidate before withdrawing that support and deciding to run.
"At the end of the day, we could not be more pleased that Dede is the only candidate who possesses the principles and cross-party appeal that is needed to win in this swing district," Mr. Lindsay added. [Washington Times, 10/06/09]
"There is still a path to victory, and we will continue to support [Scozzafava]," NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/26/09]
Some conservatives support Scozzafava, insisting that a one-size-fits-all strategy isn't a good approach to districts such as New York 23.
"Outside endorsements will not change the fact that she's the only candidate with the cross party appeal that can win this swing district," said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. McClatchy, 10/30/09
Amazing what one day will do to the NRCC's approach. One day they are backing their candidate saying she can still win while standing by their past opinions of Hoffman and the next day, they are already welcoming Hoffman to the House GOP conference.
This doesn't surprise. A lot of people, including people here in New York, have made the same argument. Part of it has to do with a lack of research on Scozzafava. The other half of it is a lack of information on the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, who conservatives call "liberal" and some progressives like Markos have called a "Blue Dog."
After reading Markos' post multiple times, it seems he uses the following as important points for his "liberal" labeling of Scozzafava.
With nearly a month to go before the special election in the 23rd congressional district, Siena has released a poll showing Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava with a seven point lead over Democratic candidate Bill Owens.
Scozzafava comes in at 35 percent with Owens behind her at 28 percent. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, who has been trying to tout himself as the conservative option to Scozzafava, stands at 16 percent.
Some of the other highlights of the poll include:
- The poll asked respondents who would be the best candidate on six different issues: The economy, health care, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, education, homeland security and bringing federal dollars to the district. Owens won or is tied with Scozzafava on five of the six issues. The only issue Owens lost to Scozzafava was the economy (25 percent to 23 percent, according to the poll). Those surveyed said that Owens would be best to address health care, the wars abroad and homeland security, while he tied with Scozzafava on education and bringing money to the district.
- An endorsement from former Congressman John McHugh might be helpful in the eyes of some voters. Of those surveyed, 40 percent said an endorsement from McHugh would make them more likely to support a candidate. Only seven percent said McHugh's endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate.
Here are some other details from the press release:
Scozzafava leads Owens 53-23 percent, with 10 percent for Hoffman in the western North Country counties (Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence). Owens's largest lead is in the Central New York counties of Madison, Oneida and Oswego, 30 percent to 20 percent each for Scozzafava and Hoffman. The Democrat and Republican are virtually tied in the five counties of the eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, and Hamilton), 32 percent for Owens, 31 percent for Scozzafava and 18 percent for Hoffman.
Scozzafava is viewed favorably by 33 percent of voters and unfavorably by 20 percent, with 47 percent not having an opinion. Owens has a 23-12 percent favorable rating, with 64 percent of voters undecided, while Hoffman has a 16-13 percent favorable rating, with 71 percent of voters undecided.
The good news for Owens is that he is still in this. He also has a good showing when it is broken up into issues. Being able to be trusted on certain issues is key and when voters trust you more than the Republican on most issues, that says a lot (even though he still trails in the overall poll).
Keep in mind that Owens has stayed out of the limelight for most of this. He has a few TV ads out, but he's let Scozzafava and Hoffman duke it out. That has its advantages. But he will need to get this party going if he plans on winning next month.
The Republican-conservative battle in the 23rd congressional district race is fun to watch and there is more coming out about the extent of it.
Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava's campaign passed along an e-mail to the Watertown Daily Times and in that e-mail was a message from Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman offering his support.
Jude Seymour from the Watertown Daily Timeshas the story:
Doug Hoffman pledged to help Dede Scozzafava in an e-mail sent two days after the Republican Party passed over the Lake Placid accountant for the nomination.
The e-mail, sent from Mr. Hoffman's business account on July 24 and provided by the Scozzafava campaign, states in full: "Hi Dede, Congratulations and the best of luck in your candidacy. Let me know if there is anything I can do to help. Doug."
...
I asked Mr. Hoffman today - through his spokesman - to explain why he told Ms. Scozzafava one thing and me another.
Here's the response I got from Rob Ryan, Mr. Hoffman's spokesman: "Like most Republicans, Doug Hoffman had no idea how liberal Dede Scozzafava is. The fact that Scozzafava has voted for higher taxes, increased spending and gay marriage proves she is way to liberal for the voters of upstate New York."
So Hoffman is one of two things: Either he is an opportunist who first promised support only to get backing from the Conservative Party in a run for Congress OR he really didn't know what Scozzafava was all about.
If it is the former, that wouldn't be surprising. It wouldn't be the first time a candidate saw an opening and realized that with the Conservative Party's help, he could run to the right of all candidates and try and rally the base for an upset victory.
But if it is the latter, it should raise questions about how just informed Hoffman is. He says he didn't realize just how "liberal" Scozzafava was and yet, she voted for the marriage equality bill in the Assembly back in 2007. Since Scozzafava has been labeled as "liberal" for only being pro-choice and pro-marriage equality, you would think that would have been a wake-up call for Hoffman. That's a vote everyone knows about, especially in political circles. He could have looked it up or he could have already know about it.
This whole battle has been all about ideology and nothing else. Hoffman, a fellow Republican, has gone after Scozzafava and labeled her as a liberal even though she isn't a full-blown liberal. Being left-of-center on two issues doesn't make her a liberal. Being left-of-center on ALL or MOST issues does.
Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee, leads with 20 percent. Democratic candidate Bill Owens comes in at 17 percent and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman also has 17 percent.
In case you don't know who the Club For Growth is, they are a pretty conservative group that wants to see the Bush tax cuts made permanent and believes in expanding free trade. So having this group come up with a poll that has such a diverse opinion of all three candidates is worth noting.
But like any of these polls, take it for what it's worth. There were only 300 people polled and the margin of error was over five percent.
The poll summary also shows the problems that the Republicans and conservatives (and perhaps Conservatives) will have as this race progresses. Those who are conservative Republicans might abandon their party and put ideology first by supporting Hoffman, who has separated himself as the conservative in this race while labeling Owens and Scozzafava as "liberals."
It does open up a chance for Owens to take the moderate vote (and apparently just as much of the conservative vote as Hoffman has) and win this election. I know people have certain opinions of Owens, but after learning more about him, he's not a bad candidate. (More on Owens later.)
Also out today is a new ad from the DCCC targeting Dede Scozzafava. This is in response to the ads sent out yesterday by the NRCC tying Owens to Pelosi in an attempt to, like Hoffman, make Owens look liberal.
The results of the poll showed that Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee, leads with 26 percent. The Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, netted 17 percent while Hoffman came in at 16 percent. When "lean" votes are factored in, Scozzafava gets 30 percent, Owens 20 percent and Hoffman 19 percent.
The poll also has a large group of undecideds at 31 percent. It covered 300 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of 5.7 percent.
This poll makes for a good NY-23 post, but nothing more. Based on some other information in the poll, you can tell what the goal was: To portray Hoffman as the conservative option to the "liberals" Owens and Scozzafava.
Here is an example:
All things being equal, based on the following descriptions for whom are you more likely to vote for U.S. Congress? If you will decide your vote on other issues just say so. A Democratic candidate who is pro-abortion and is supported by Nancy Pelosi, who supports gay marriage. A liberal Republican who is pro abortion and pro gay marriage, OR, A Conservative Republican who is running on the Conservative Party line, who is pro-life and pro traditional marriage.
The results of that question had 48 percent saying they supported the "Conservative Republican" choice (which is Hoffman without the question saying as much).
The intent of this poll was to do what Hoffman has been trying to do since being given the opportunity to run on the Conservative Party line. He is running as the conservative alternative to Scozzafava (and Owens, if that's possible). He has labeled his two opponents as "liberals", which is an interesting approach. He labels Owens as a supporter of gay marriage even though he does not support gay marriage (he supports civil unions, but does not support full marriage equality due to religious reasons) and tries to separate himself from Scozzafava on the same social issues.
Obviously, this poll is nothing more than a way for Hoffman to get more support. It's not something I would take too seriously.
The Republicans picked Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a pro-choice and pro-marriage equality candidate who is known as a bit of a maverick in Republican circles.
In response to the Republicans' choice, the Conservative Party has nominated Doug Hoffman to run on their line as the conservative candidate in the race. The Conservative Party, which is known for putting social issues at the forefront of their selection process, decided against endorsing Scozzafava because of her social liberal views.
There are those who are wondering why the Democrats picked a moderate independent to run. The reason is that you aren't going to win NY-23 with someone who is a staunch progressive. Scozzafava, while being a social liberal, isn't liberal on too much else. She, like the man she wants to succeed, is fairly moderate and will vote with the Republicans most of the time. Owens, the Democratic choice, makes it known that he is a moderate and doesn't deviate from that.
The enrollment in the district shows you what we are looking at in terms of voters:
23rd Congressional District Enrollment
DEM
REP
IND
CON
WFP
GRE
LIB
SWP
BLK
TOTAL
120,887
167,272
19,619
5,561
1,482
911
77
3
76,194
392,006
The reality is that you aren't going to win NY-23 with a staunch progressive or a staunch conservative. McHugh has served the district well and is known as a moderate. That is why he was such a tough election foe. In order to serve the district, you have to be able to balance yourself.
Here are some things to keep in mind:
- People have pointed out that Owens is to the right of Scozzafava on marriage equality. That's true, but he isn't to the right on the issue. He is actually in the middle, arguing that his religious beliefs prevent him from being a supporter, but does believe that equal rights are important. The conservative in the race, Hoffman, is opposed to marriage equality altogether. If you had to pick from Owens or Hoffman, which would you rather have? Also, I would like to hear Owens on repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell and whether or not he would support other key LGBT legislation. As a friend reminded me, a certain high-profile Democrat held a very similar view of marriage equality that Owens does. We just happened to elect that Democrat our president.
- Scozzafava will be tough, especially when it comes to getting the minor party lines. She has already secured the Independence Party line and will also be in the running for the Working Families Party line. Owens might be able to secure the WFP line, but that will be up to the party to decide.
- Hoffman won't win, but he will play spoiler. The conservatives (and Conservative Party) will try and make this about social issues. With Owens and Scozzafava both pro-choice and Scozzafava pro-marriage equality, the Conservative Party will seek to steal votes that may have been headed in Scozzafava's direction.
While voter turnout for this special election might not be high for a congressional race, it's not your typical special election. If everything falls into place, the election will take place on Election Day 2009. That means down-ticket races (county legislature, town board, mayoral races, etc.) could benefit from having a high-profile race on the ballot. Voter turnout won't be at record levels, but it shouldn't be as bad as some are assuming it will be.
Is Owens a progressive candidate? No. But the Democratic chairs weren't looking for a progressive candidate. They were looking for someone who fit the district. There will be people who question why Democrats would pick an independent to run on their line. It is a good question to ask, but the decision was apparently a unanimous one and a decision that was supported by the DCCC.
There is a lot more to learn about these candidates. That I will say. There has been a lot of reactionary comments made about Scozzafava's pro-choice and pro-marriage equality stances as if those positions alone make you a progressive. That only makes her progressive on those issues.
The election is still a few months away, but it sure will have the attention of New Yorkers. A lot will be on the line. There is a lot of work to be done. So let's get to work.
There were few Republicans who were successful winning their congressional seats back time after time like John McHugh. McHugh, who some have considered a fairly moderate Republican, ran unopposed in 2002, won with 71 percent of the vote in 2004 against Bob Johnson, beat Johnson again in 2006 with 63 percent of the vote and won re-election last November with 65 percent of the vote over Democrat Mike Oot.
Now with McHugh out of the picture, Oot is very interested in getting the Democratic nomination for the seat.
In a letter to supporters, Oot said he is "going to try to secure the nomination" and is confident that if he can get the nomination from party leaders, he can win the race.
The full letter is below the fold, but here is an excerpt from the letter:
Dear Family and Friends,
Well, it's been a busy week, so I thought I should write you and bring you up to date.
I am going to try to secure the nomination as the Democratic candidate for Congress in the 23rd District.
We are moving a step at a time and I will consult with my family and advisors to evaluate our position at every step.
As you know, 21 months ago, my family and I set out on a journey motivated entirely by two things, our frustration with the Bush Administration and their collaborators in Congress and a strong desire to improve the quality of life, economic and otherwise, of the citizens of this District.
Soon, we were joined by you, and all of us continued that journey and tried to make history by working to bring change to the the 23rd District.
Despite the outcome of the election, it's hard to say we lost. The fact is that with very little money and the strong support of volunteers like you, almost 70,000 voters joined with us in that effort. In Madison County we received 45% of the vote, in Clinton County 44% and in Franklin County 43%.
Now McHugh is leaving; it's an entirely different situation. The seat will soon be vacant and as I said, I want the nomination as the candidate for the open seat.
Oot wasn't a very good fundraiser the last time around. His campaign finance filings show that he raised over $100,000 for a congressional race. That isn't a lot of money, especially for a district that spans 11 counties. He attributes this to the other races happening around him, including the congressional races in NY-24 and NY-25, but I don't think it's the races as much as it was an inability to raise money or being inexperienced in the area of fundraising.
In addition to that, running against McHugh is tough. He received bi-partisan support over the years and that made it difficult for any Democrat to run against him. So Oot had that going against him too. It wasn't a race that Oot was going to win on his first try.
It is going to take a lot of money to win this race. We saw in NY-20 that a lot of money was spent by both sides. The race in NY-23 won't be any different. We still have time before the race is even announced (McHugh is going to have to wait a few weeks before being confirmed, maybe even a month) but it's going to take a lot of effort to win this. Is Mike Oot the guy? On paper, probably not.
But who knows what would happen with the state party paying attention and helping Oot. That could be a difference-maker. Enter the DCCC and things get more interesting.
I wouldn't rule Oot out completely. But based on past history, he's going to have to show why he would be a great candidate for a special election and show that he can improve in his weak areas.
