NY-Sen: Siena Poll Shows Gillibrand Improving In General Election Contests

by: robert.harding

Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 12:10:45 PM EST

The Siena poll found the following:

- Gillibrand's favorable rating is 31 percent, which is a decrease from last month's 34 percent rating but still keeps her above 30 percent. Her unfavorable rating is 22 percent - the lowest it has been since August. Those who don't know or have no opinion come in at 47 percent and while that still is a lot of ground to cover, it is still below 50 percent of the respondents.

- Bill Thompson's favorable is lower than Gillibrand's. He comes in at 25 percent and his unfavorable rating is 17 percent. There are 58 percent of respondents who don't know him or have no opinion of him, so he's behind Gillibrand in that respect.

- In a primary featuring Gillibrand, Thompson, Harold Ford Jr. and Jonathan Tasini, Gillibrand wins with 32 percent of the vote. Thompson is second with 23 percent, Ford nets seven percent of the vote and Tasini is last with three percent. That part of the poll makes it clear that, at least today, Gillibrand is the top of the Democratic crop of candidates. She is the strongest of any of them.

- In head-to-head matchups with with Gillibrand and two top Republican candidates, Gillibrand fares well. While she would lose to Rudy Giuliani 49 percent to 42 percent, she would defeat George Pataki 46 percent to 43 percent.

The Gillibrand-Giuliani matchup is especially good for Gillibrand since in October, she was 17 points behind Giuliani. Now, she only trails by seven points 11 months out from the general election and nine months out of the primary.

- Giuliani and Pataki both have favorable ratings over 50 percent (Giuliani is at 58 percent while Pataki enjoys a 53 percent favorable rating) but neither get over 50 percent against Gillibrand.

Gillibrand has plenty of work to do to make herself a favorite for the general election next year. But one thing is becoming clear. She is the option for Democrats next year. If she can do this well in a poll against Thompson, who is coming off a battle for mayor in New York City (a place where Gillibrand hasn't run a full-blown campaign as of yet) then that is a good sign for her.

Another good sign is beating out Pataki. She was ahead of Pataki by one percentage point in the last Siena poll so increasing that lead to three points is a good sign that more and more voters see her as a better candidate than Pataki. Of course, Pataki doesn't want to run for Senate, but considering his name recognition (he was governor for 12 years), beating him in a poll isn't a bad thing.  

NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Q Poll: Paterson Behind Cuomo; Thompson Leads Gillibrand

by: robert.harding

Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 10:25:47 AM EST

For Governor David Paterson, the Q Poll has one piece of good news. His favorable rating is up to 38 percent - the highest it has been since earlier this year. The last four Q Polls had Paterson's favorable rating under 30 percent. That favorable rating is padded by New York City, where respondents had a 49 percent favorable rating of Paterson. Elsewhere, Paterson's favorable rating was between 31 to 35 percent.

In the hypothetical Democratic primary between Paterson and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Cuomo wins 60 percent to 23 percent. Paterson would defeat Republican Rick Lazio 41 percent to 37 percent but Cuomo would win easily over Lazio 62 percent to 22 percent.

In the race for the seat currently held by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, 2009 New York City mayoral candidate Bill Thompson would defeat Gillibrand in a primary, according to the poll. Among registered Democrats, Thompson beats Gillibrand 41 percent to 28 percent.

What is interesting about this though is that Gillibrand fares better than Thompson against Rudy Giuliani in the general election. Giuliani would defeat Gillibrand 50 percent to 40 percent while the former New York City mayor would knock off Thompson by a 52 percent to 36 percent vote.

Gillibrand's favorable rating is similar to where it was when she was appointed to the post. She has a 26 percent favorable rating - only one percentage point higher than what it was in January 2009.

For Thompson, the favorable rating isn't much better. His favorable rating comes in at 25 percent, so while he might be ahead of Gillibrand in a primary, his favorable rating isn't higher and is right on par with Gillibrand. So while some question Gillibrand's viability as a candidate, her prospective challengers have never fared any better in this department.

But perhaps the most interesting finding in the poll was Governor Paterson's job approval rating. His favorable rating and electoral ratings aside, his job approval rating is at 40 percent. His disapproval rating is at 49 percent. So while his disapproval rating is still high, having the approval rating he has at this point is encouraging for him. It also might help him in his argument that he can run in 2010 and be a viable candidate, although other polls down the road might change that.

Reforming the Taylor Law

by: Dan Jacoby

Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 09:31:57 AM EDT

The Taylor Law prohibits unionized government (or public authority) workers from staging any kind of work stoppage. The concept behind the law is that we as a society cannot afford to have our police or firefighters go on strike.  The transit strike a few years ago pointed up just how damaging some work stoppages can be.

The problem is that when workers can't strike they can't force management (the government or public authority) to negotiate. "Mike" Bloomberg forced police officers to go almost five years without a contract, because he refused to negotiate with them.  It can make one wonder what damage could be done when the morale of our first responders is affected by the mayor's refusal to treat them with dignity.

While the Taylor Law does provide for binding arbitration, the real-world fact is that nobody wants to go there -- ever.  Binding arbitration, unless there is some escape clause, has proven to be untenable time and time again. (Baseball fans will remember the days of binding arbitration there -- it was a disaster, as marginal players were granted exorbitant salaries while bona fide superstars were actually given less.) That's why, over the years when the NYPD was working without a contract, they elected to continue that process rather than go to binding arbitration.

The question, therefore, is what kind of changes should be made to the Taylor Law?  I offer one solution:

Allow the union to go to a judge, or to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), and ask for a ruling that the government isn't "negotiatiing in good faith." There is a wealth of case law regarding this phrase, so we're on pretty stable ground here.  Once a ruling is made that the government isn't negotiating in good faith, the clock starts ticking; after a certain amount of time (say, 30 days), the union may go on strike if a tentative deal isn't reached. Perhaps during the "clock ticking" time a mediator can be brought in to try to help. The only two ways to stop the clock are for the government to get a ruling that the union isn't negotiating in good faith or for a deal to be reached.

Under this scenario, there is no need for binding arbitration, both sides will be required to negotiate, and contracts will be reached. Only in the most extreme circumstances (such as someone like "Mike" Bloomberg trying to exercise dictatorial control) will there be even the threat of a strike -- in which case the cost of our government workers not having a contract could be even worse, so the threat of a strike would be a better scenario.

Of course, for such a modification to be put into effect it would have to be passed in Albany, and right now there aren't a lot of people up there who know anything about negotiating in good faith.

NYC-Mayor: Weiner's Out

by: Roatti

Wed May 27, 2009 at 11:11:52 AM EDT

The other truth is that the Supreme Court decision in 1976 in Buckley v. Valeo, which allows candidates to spend however much they want on their own races, makes it possible for billionaires to swamp middle-class candidates. In this case, a sports analogy is apt: If one football team has 110 players on the field, the team with 11 has a hard time getting through the blocking and tackling on the crowded turf.

The personal choice for me is whether to run for mayor this year. I've taken stock of my life, my work in Washington and decided that now is not the right time to run. I believe I have a contribution to make in Congress fighting for New Yorkers. (I'd also like to build a family.)

Essentially he makes 2 points: 1) it's good to be in Washington right now with Obama and huge Democratic majorities so he can be involved in lots of progressive lawmaking, and 2) Bloomberg will spend such ungodly amounts of money he would have no chance of winning.  Both are true.  

Bloomberg's re-election was already essentially a fait accopmpli, but now it's basically as in the bank as you can get.  I don't see any of the remaining candidates, Bill Thompson or Tony Avella pulling this thing off.  

City Comptroller Bill Thompson Phoning For Obama Today In NYC

by: phillip anderson

Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 14:37:06 PM EDT

TODAY: City Comptroller William Thompson to Phone Bank at 40/40 Club

New York City Comptroller will make calls to undecided voters and encourage other New Yorkers to do the same

With grassroots enthusiasm for Barack Obama at an historic level in New York, the Obama campaign today announced that New York City Comptroller William Thompson will attend its phone bank at 40/40 club in Manhattan at 3pm TODAY, Saturday, November 1, 2008.

WHERE:    
40/40 Club
6 West 25th Street

WHEN: TODAY, Saturday, November 1, 3PM

NYC's middle class is endangered. It doesn't have to be.

by: ElanaDMIBlog

Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 14:03:28 PM EDT

Well as people who live and work in NYC I can say that we do know that NYC is basically unaffordable to middle class people and certainly to New Yorkers working their way into the middle class. We know that people earning salaries high enough to buy houses in other parts of the country find themselves unable to afford even rent in the city and making even an upper-middle class salary can leave you qualified for some affordable housing set-asides. As the Brookings Institution report has shown, NYC's middle class is disappearing. The point being made at our conference is that things don't have to be this way, things haven't always been this way and  there are things that can be done to make NYC a middle class town again. New ideas on this are exactly what we'll be talking about  this Monday at Baruch College.

New York used to be the starting place for people setting out to forge their piece of the American Dream. Whether they moved here from the boondocks or Brazil people came to New York to build families and community and through hard work supported by progressive public policy offering the infrastructure to make it possible they worked their way into the middle class.