It looks like something, perhaps all these polls showing the 26th to be a very, very winnable race, finally coaxed Steve Israel out from under his desk. Politico is reporting that D-trip is finally getting involved with a $250K ad buy.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is placing a $250,000 TV ad buy in the race for a vacant western New York congressional seat, according to a knowledgeable Democratic official.
The buy ups the ante in a battle the committee had previously been reluctant to wade into, and comes on the same day that American Crossroads, a conservative third-party group, announced it would spend $650,000 on TV ads during the final two weeks of the race.
The DCCC has been quietly engaged in the race until now, funneling close to $100,000 to Democrat Kathy Hochul's campaign.
Yet, I'm glad D-trip has finally joined the fight, though I've never understood their reticence. It's a no lose proposition for them, given that if they lose, it's no big deal. Everyone assumed this seat was a safe GOP seat. If they prevail, however, it's a huge win.
It's especially significant given the role that the GOP's "kill Medicare to finance more tax cuts for rich folks" plan has taken on this race. Even though national Republicans seem to be running away from the plan now as fast as they can, poor Jane Corwin is stuck having endorsed it. Talk about a rock and hard place.
So, it's a great chance to test Dem messaging, against a plan even Republicans are backing away from, a year out from when it's widely assumed D-trip will be working overtime to hang that plan around as many House GOP necks as possible. Those poor bastards are going to own that vote whether they like it or not.
A win in NY-26 would mark a huge hat trick against GOP messaging. I'm sure we all remember Dem victories in NY-20 (the stimulus) and NY-23 (health care reform).
The wild card of course is Crazy Jack Davis. I don't know anyone who thinks Crazy Jack will actually pull anywhere near the mid-20s he's now polling on election day. The question is, do those people who are telling pollsters they support Davis but probably can't actually bring themselves to pull the lever for batty old coot, either vote for Corwin (probably more likely, IMHO) or Hochul. Or do they just sit this one out.
Regardless, the DCCC is finally in the game in a significant way. Good for them. It's a winnable race and there's some big ideas on the line.
Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee, leads with 20 percent. Democratic candidate Bill Owens comes in at 17 percent and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman also has 17 percent.
In case you don't know who the Club For Growth is, they are a pretty conservative group that wants to see the Bush tax cuts made permanent and believes in expanding free trade. So having this group come up with a poll that has such a diverse opinion of all three candidates is worth noting.
But like any of these polls, take it for what it's worth. There were only 300 people polled and the margin of error was over five percent.
The poll summary also shows the problems that the Republicans and conservatives (and perhaps Conservatives) will have as this race progresses. Those who are conservative Republicans might abandon their party and put ideology first by supporting Hoffman, who has separated himself as the conservative in this race while labeling Owens and Scozzafava as "liberals."
It does open up a chance for Owens to take the moderate vote (and apparently just as much of the conservative vote as Hoffman has) and win this election. I know people have certain opinions of Owens, but after learning more about him, he's not a bad candidate. (More on Owens later.)
Also out today is a new ad from the DCCC targeting Dede Scozzafava. This is in response to the ads sent out yesterday by the NRCC tying Owens to Pelosi in an attempt to, like Hoffman, make Owens look liberal.
Can't make it out to New York's 20th congressional district this weekend? There is one important way for you to volunteer on behalf of Scott Murphy this weekend.
The DCCC set up a virtual phone bank that you can use right from your computer. All you have to do is go to the website, sign in (or register if you don't have a username and password) and then you will be able to get started.
I know that I have some friends that headed out to NY-20 today to help Scott Murphy. I plan on doing my part from home thanks to the DCCC. If you can't make it out, please make some phone calls. They will go a long way and will help in the GOTV efforts this weekend.
Bidding for New York's 20th district seat, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco by two percentage points in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's internal polling.
The poll, obtained by The Hill from a Democratic source, shows Murphy leading Tedisco 43 percent to 41 percent in the race for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) former House seat.
The DCCC's poll was taken earlier this week, before the Siena College poll released Friday that showed Murphy leading Tedisco by four percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent.
The Siena poll was the first to show Murphy leading Tedisco. Tedisco quickly responded, issuing a statement that said his campaign's polling shows him ahead of Murphy.
"Heading into Election Day, our campaign's internal polling shows us continuing to lead, just as we have for this entire race," Tedisco said. "Today's Siena poll is simply another in a line of polls that show this race within the margin of error. In the end this race is coming down to voter intensity and turnout, and our internal polls show us with strong leads in both areas."
Two things. First, this is where I would usually throw in the caveats about this being a partisan poll and take with a grain of salt and all that. But, this poll would seem to complement the trend expressed in the independent polling so far. In this case, D-trip's poll looks pretty kosher.
Second, what the hell is the Tedisco camp talking about here? They have polling that shows them leading in "intensity" and "turnout"? Really?
That is some nifty poll that can gauge Tuesday's turnout a week or so out.
D-trip is launching a new TV ad in the 20th CD special election this morning. It's called "File" and it doesn't pull any punches, taking Tedisco to task for failing to support middle class tax relief while supporting a mortgage executive pal convicted of fraud.
A new D-trip funded poll shows Scott Murphy continuing to gain ground on Jim Tedisco, cutting what was once a 21 point lead down to a mere 7 points (as of Feb 24-25). Tedisco also remains well under 50%.
Democrat Scott Murphy has slashed into the huge lead once held by Republican Jim Tedisco in the New York special House election scheduled for March 31, according to a new Democratic-sponsored poll.
Tedisco, the state Assembly minority leader, holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Murphy, a 39-year-old venture capitalist, according to the late February survey by the Benenson Strategy Group. The margin was 44 to 37 percent, with Libertarian Eric Sundwall at 4 percent, and 15 percent of voters undecided.The poll was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The poll was conducted Feb. 24-25, and included interviews with 400 likely voters in the Upstate New York district.
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But the controversy has allowed Murphy to cut into Tedisco's once seemingly impregnable lead. Early polls had Tedisco up by 20-plus points, while a Siena Research Institute poll two weeks ago still had him holding a 12-point edge.
Republicans dismissed the latest DCCC poll as a natural tightening in a district that Gillibrand carried easily, and where President Barack Obama's approval ratings hover at the 70 percent range.
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Democrats, though, were pleased with the polling results, and vowed to make significant independent expenditures for the race. They would not provide any specific number on how much the party plans to dump into the effort.
"We're moving forward, being cautiously optimistic," said Brian Wolff, the DCCC's executive director. "The stimulus package and the economy, and our candidate, are striking a tone with voters in the 20th District."
Emphasis mine as I think it's important to not when this poll was taken.
Yeah, it's a partisan poll and all usual caveats apply. That said, it's pretty easy to see how this is happening. Also, it seems that the more folks learn about Scott Murphy, the more they like what they see.
One thing is for sure. Murphy's got the 'mo. If he had cut the lead to 7 weeks ago, where are those numbers today? Given Tedisco's widely panned debate performance, continued bad press and further stumbles, it's hard to imagine that the trend has arrested itself or even reversed.
It looks as if the DCCC is about to join he air war in the 20th. From Roll Call (sub req'd)
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is weighing into the special election in New York's 20th district with a television ad buy.
According to knowledgeable sources, the buy is scheduled to start on Friday and continue through March 31, the date of the special election. Specific details about the size of the DCCC's buy are not yet known. The committee previously was on the air with a radio ad.
On Tuesday, the National Republican Congressional Committee went on the air with about 1,200 gross ratings points of television ads on broadcast and cable in the Albany media market, which covers the majority of the district.
Congressman Steve Israel will be the chair the DCCC's Recruiting Committee, responsible for working with our Members and allies to identify and recruit topnotch candidates in districts around the country. Israel has been a Member of the Recruiting Committee for the past two cycles when Democrats made an historic 54 seat gain.
"Congressman Steve Israel's aggressive leadership of the Recruiting Committee is critical to our success this cycle," said Chairman Chris Van Hollen. "Steve is a savvy, battle tested campaigner who will be an enormous asset to our candidates."
Congressman Steve Israel said, "I'm looking forward to continuing my work with the DCCC Recruiting Committee in a new leadership role. An aggressive offense is an essential part of our strategy for success this cycle. The DCCC will continue to recruit the best candidates in districts around the country and ensure they have the infrastructure and support they need to hit the ground running."
I've got a suggestion for Rep Israel. Start close to home and get us a great candidate for the district next door, NY-3.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is taking on Republican Assemblyman James Tedisco for his drive to Albany. To some, it might not sound like much of a story. But since he got paid $21,000 to make that drive, it might be a story.
Now, I will preface this by saying that all of this is legal. Tedisco can, just like any other state legislator, submit vouchers for travel and get reimbursed for it. But considering he lives only 20 minutes from Albany, the ethics of these charges could be questioned.
Now that Albany politician Jim Tedisco has formally launched his congressional campaign in New York's 20th Congressional District, Tedisco owes voters an explanation as to why he billed them $21,343 in oil and gas receipts for his taxpayer funded vehicle, despite just a 20-minute car ride away to the state capitol from his Schenectady home in the 21st Congressional District.
"Albany politician Jim Tedisco talks tough about cutting government spending, but that hasn't stopped him from billing taxpayers over $21,000 in oil and gas receipts for his taxpayer funded vehicle, despite his 20-minute car ride to the state capital," said Jennifer Crider, Communications Director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "During these tough economic times, the very last thing Upstate New York's middle class families need is a sneaky Albany politician like Jim Tedisco sticking them with a $21,000 bill so he can keep living high on the hog. Tedisco needs to stop this hypocrisy and immediately come clean by reimbursing taxpayers $21,000."
Of course, there is a lot of hypocrisy with what Tedisco has said in the past and his actions in getting the taxpayers to pay for his travels. The $21,000 he was reimbursed was over an eight-year period, but that is still a lot of money every year that he was getting reimbursed (and taking advantage of another perk that state legislators get) for driving 17 miles to work.
File this under "O RLY?" It seems the sad-sack dreamers at the NRCC have already started to circulating their, ahem, rather ambitious "target" list for 2010. That list includes five New Yorkers, including all three freshmen.
It makes some sense to me that they'd think they might have a shot at taking back NY-29. It's a pretty red district. Massa is smart and tireless. They'll make a run at him, but they ain't gonna out-hustle the guy.
To take back NY-13, they'd have to, ya know, actually find a candidate, something that turned into quite a soap opera last summer for them. And I don't think they are going to have a realistic shot at Maffei, even as a frosh.
They damn near picked off Arcuri in NY-24 last year, but I don't think that they'll catch him napping again, not to mention D-trip.
Gillibrand has proven to be one hell of a fundraiser and has worked her tail off to seal the deal with her district. She isn't going to be beaten anytime soon. I'm also pretty sure that they won't be lucky enough to find another self funding gazillionaire moron to take her on. Running a credible challenge to Gillibrand is going to cost money. Will they have it? I have my doubts. Even if they do have the moolah, I find it hard to believe they'd dump it into NY-20.
What's interesting to me is who didn't make their list. It seems that the NRCC won't be taking another shot at John Hall in NY-19.
Sorry, Mr. Lalor.
Oh, and I have a feeling that much of their effort in New York just might be sunk into defending NY-3.
D-trip is up in the 26th with a new radio ad that hits Republican Chris Lee pretty hard on the revelation that he he was fired from a job for engaging in fraud. Take a listen:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has come out with an ad targeting Republican Chris Lee on NAFTA (Lee has said he supports free trade) and a fact off of Lee's website - which no longer is on Lee's website - that stated Lee's company was currently operating out of China.
This is a strong ad and I'm glad that the DCCC came out early with an ad in this district. People need to hear the truth about Chris Lee and his company. There is a reason why Lee supports free trade. Lee himself was a free trader. So he can't really oppose free trade without looking like a hypocrite.
However, endorsements are endorsements. The only endorsement that matters is the one from voters on Election Day. So what are Kryzan's chances?
There is plenty of upside and some downside to Kryzan. Blogs have been speculating about how well she will do and as a blogger from the 26th district (you can read my work over at The Albany Project), I have seen how Kryzan has been received in this district. Here are the strengths and weaknesses of Alice Kryzan:
STRENGTHS - Kryzan is largely unscathed. The only two negatives against Kryzan were her involvement as legal representation for the Love Canal polluters and her $250 contribution to Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds - the man she, at first, was running to replace. I pushed both these issues on TAP and they were mentioned in the media. However, they never really stuck. One reason for that was Kryzan was never considered a very serious threat or she was not treated as a very serious threat. Other than those two issues, I found nothing.
- Strong support in larger counties. I contend that there are three different parts to this district (I will explain more later): The first part is Erie and Niagara counties. The second part are the rural counties. The final part is Monroe County. The three largest counties - Erie, Monroe and Niagara - were all won by Kryzan in the Democratic primary. Her biggest win came in Erie, where she won with 48 percent of the vote. If a Democrat is going to win this district, you need to win Erie and Niagara counties. Kryzan proved she can do that. She also proved that has some sort of base in Monroe County.
WEAKNESSES - Fundraising. Maybe the aforementioned backing from DCCC and EMILY's List will help Kryzan in this category. Kryzan's bankroll shows that she has raised $281,298 and loaned her campaign $157,000. Keep in mind that she has been raising money since September 2007. That makes her primary victory even more surprising, considering her two opponents were both well-funded. She will need to change this. She needs to raise money and raise money well. In about six weeks she will be taking another well funded challenger: Republican Chris Lee, who is also a millionaire.
- Rural counties. Jon Powers won all four rural counties with over 700 votes. Powers' biggest win came in Livingston County - arguably the most distant county in NY-26 - where he received 939 votes to Kryzan's 446. Powers had support all across the rural counties and he paid attention and listened to the issues that were important to us. We have yet to see that from Kryzan, although she is making the effort. She has been reaching out to the rural counties in recent days to earn their support. Are Democrats going to win the rural counties? Probably not. But if you ignore them, it could be the difference between a narrow victory or a narrow defeat.
- Party unity. Unlike the primary fight between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, there aren't months in between the primary and general elections. There are only six weeks to go. Kryzan won 42 percent of the vote district-wide. That means in eight weeks (from the primary to the general) Kryzan has to rally the troops around her. She can do it, but it will take effort. So far, she has done all the right things. The only thing she lacks is time.
What does Kryzan need to do to win? First, she needs to win Erie and Niagara counties. Those are the most Democratic counties in the district (Niagara has a slight Democratic enrollment advantage while Erie has a slight Republican enrollment advantage, but won't be hard to go blue in November). Her margin of victory in Erie and Niagara counties will set the tone for how well she needs to do in the other five counties.
Then comes the rural counties. Kryzan won't win these four. If I was idealistic, I might say she could win a few of them. But in reality, Kryzan won't win any of them. However, she needs to minimize her loses in those four counties (Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming). She needs to perform better than Democrats have in the past. She needs to get between 42 percent and 46 percent of the vote in those four counties. It's a reach, but it can be done. With hard work, a true grassroots effort and plenty of outreach you can do well in those four counties.
Lastly, Monroe County. In 2006, Jack Davis lost by over 6,000 votes in Monroe County. He lost the race by 7,000 votes. Davis did not campaign hard in Monroe County (or the rural counties) and paid for it on Election Day. If he focused on the other five counties, he would be our representative. However, he failed to do that and paid the price in 2006. Kryzan needs to avoid that same disaster. She has laid the ground work for success in Erie and Niagara counties. Now she needs to improve in the rural counties and build off her narrow victory in Monroe County. In a year when Monroe County is a battleground (there are two key state senate races that have towns inside NY-26) Kryzan can really use those local races to her advantage.
Can Kryzan do it? It's possible. It will be tough, but it is doable. There is a lot of work to do over the next six weeks. Right now, I would say Kryzan is an underdog. Remember, she was an underdog before. Nothing says she won't be able to pull it off again.
Big news on the ad buy front today as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced more ad buys today, including $2.7 million for ad buys in NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29.
Moving quickly to capitalize on their massive financial advantage, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved television time in nearly two dozen more House districts, bringing their total investment in competitive contests to $53 million.
The new buy encompasses 20 districts and comes ten days after the DCCC dropped an estimated $35 million on ad time in 31 House districts. (A full list of districts in the new DCCC buy is after the jump.)
It also comes on the heels of the latest fundraising figures that show the DCCC outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee $22 million to $15 million over the last three months and, more importantly, ended June with $55 million in the bank, $46.5 million more than the NRCC.
...
* An ad buy of 1000 points means the average viewer will see the ad 10 times during a given week.
This is big, especially since these three districts are districts we can win. I believe NY-13 isn't much of a contest and it's a seat that we will win fairly easily in November. But these three seats still need help from the DCCC. This shows the DCCC is committed to win these seats.
Also, the DCCC is spending under $3 million in the three seats Democrats won in special elections (IL-14, LA-04, MS-01). All three were Republican districts, so keeping them is crucial. I woud compare that to taking back the New York State Senate while keeping SD-48 on our side with Darrel Aubertine.
Other notables:
- Two of California's congressional districts will see a total of $2.03 million in advertising come their way. That means great things for CA-04 Democratic candidate Charlie Brown.
- WA-08 will see $949,000 in an ad buy to help out Darcy Burner.
However, none of the races that made the list are from upstate New York, where NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29 are all winnable seats and include three candidates - Dan Maffei (NY-25), Jon Powers (NY-26) and Eric Massa (NY-29) - that are on the DCCC's Red to Blue list.
DCCC Executive Director Brian Wolff issued this statement today explaining this decision:
"Our initial media buy is the first act of a many act play. As we have been all cycle, the DCCC is focused, prepared, and organized. Watch what we do over the next four months and our aggressive strategy to expand the playing field and strengthen the Democratic Majority will become clear."
The only New York target with this ad buy will be NY-13, which bodes well for Mike McMahon, another Red to Blue candidate.
I could understand why you wouldn't buy ads initially for Powers. He is in a primary and even though the DCCC has given him their backing, I don't think they want to gamble with money in a primary, at least money like this for ads.
But why Maffei and Massa were left off is inexplicable. I understand that this isn't the end of the line, but Maffei and Massa are proven contenders. While McMahon has been backed by the DCCC, he hasn't been in his race nearly as long as Maffei and Massa have been in theirs. Maffei is arguably the front-runner in NY-25. Massa is putting the heat on Kuhl and is poised to win that seat in November.
Earlier I reported that Jon Powers has been named to the DCCC's Red to Blue program. This is big news. Red to Blue is a great program pushed by the DCCC and supports outstanding candidates in districts held by Republicans or being vacated by Republicans (NY-26 is an open seat, as is NY-25). Powers becomes the fourth Democratic candidate in New York to be added to Red to Blue, joining Dan Maffei (NY-25), Eric Massa (NY-29) and Mike McMahon (NY-13).
This is what the Powers campaign sent out regarding this recognition:
Jon Powers, Iraq War Veteran, former captain in the U.S. Army and the endorsed Democratic candidate in New York's 26th congressional district, has been named to the Democratic National Campaign Committee's Red-to-Blue program.
"This is a huge advantage for our campaign," Powers said. "From the beginning, our campaign has focused on bringing the voice of Western New Yorkers back to Washington. Today we are receiving recognition that our message is resonating on a national level."
The DCCC Red-to-Blue program spotlights campaigns across the country that stand for change and will represent new priorities when elected to Congress. The program provides financial and strategic support to races that have surpassed fundraising and voter outreach expectations.
What does this mean for Powers and his campaign going forward? A few things:
(1) Money. The Red-to-Blue distinction will persuade donors who might have been apprehensive to give at first to contribute to the Powers campaign. (You can do your part by giving to the Powers campaign by visiting Powers' ActBlue page.)
(2) Legitimacy. The Red-to-Blue program includes a lot of big-name campaigns, including Maffei and Massa here in New York. Powers being added to this group means a lot to his campaign, especially since at first the DCCC wasn't going to get involved in this race.
(3) True front-runner status. If there was any doubt who the front-runner is, that went out the window today. Powers has had his critics locally and hopefully the recognition from the DCCC will change the minds of those critics.
· Western New York Council of the Communications Workers of America
· Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 22
· National Association of Letter Carriers, Branch 3
· UNITE-HERE, Rochester Regional Joint Board
Big news out of the Jon Powers campaign today. Powers will be joining the DCCC's Red To Blue Program which will give Powers a distinct advantage in raising money and provide Powers with the long-awaited backing of the national Democrats.
More on this later as information comes in. This is no doubt big news for the Powers campaign today. Should provide them with a huge boost in fundraising.
We know that Mike McMahon was recently endorsed by the DCCC in NY-13. We know that McMahon is (probably) the more electable candidate in his district. We know that NY-13 is winnable and the entrenched incumbent's retirement is a huge aid to our possibilities.
So if the DCCC is going out on a limb and endorsing a candidate facing a primary challenge, why not endorse another analogous candidate?
I'm talking about our Democratic infrastructure. If we are going to take our country back this November, we all need to step up to the plate in whatever way we can.
Nothing beats volunteering our time and energy, but for many of us folks doing the 9-to-5 thing, donating money also allows us to make a difference without having to move our collective tuckases out of our chairs. Please consider giving to or volunteering for one or more of the following organizations/campaigns:
Then there's the DNC. The national party is the only area where the Republicans have any cash advantage over us. You can donate, or even better, you can purchase a democracy bond, where you give a recurring contribution every month. While you're there, you can also participate in one of the most innovative grassroots strategies in a long time. It's called the Neighborhood Volunteer Program; essentially, they send you a list of 25 targeted voters in your area and between now and election day, you visit each one of them three times. Studies show this is a very effective way to reach people. For New York, this doesn't really matter on the Presidential level, but for those of you living in one of our closely contested NY Senate districts, this can be the difference between a Democratic and Republican Senate next year. And finally, don't forget to join Partybuilder.
Finally, on the national level, you can donate money to the DCCC or the DSCC. And definitely don't forget to contribute to Jon Powers, Eric Massa, and Dan Maffei through Actublue, right through the banner on the left side of our own Albany Project!
On the State level, we are incredibly close to overthrowing the Republican stranglehold on our legislature. You can donate to or volunteer for the New York State Senate Democratic Campaign.
Ourside of party organizations, there are independent organizations helping Democrats everywhere, to which you can also support. One great example is MoveOn. They are important because while is seems like Obama is going to run a mostly positive campaign, MoveOn has no qualms about running devastating attack ads against McCain over the television airwaves. On top of that, MoveOn will give you a free Obama bumper sticker.
And finally, if you really have a lot of cash on hand, you can consider donating to one of the State Democratic Parties of swing states. Some examples are Ohio,Colorado, or Virginia
Can we make a Democratic landslide this November? Yes. We. Can.
