Today is D-Day for health care reform and we've still got some waverers here in NY. We already know that Eric Massa is "no" no matter what. (And I'll have more on that later. Short version: Massa is full of sh*t and trying to have it both ways.)
But we need to smoke out the rest of them. The ad on the left side of this page makes calling these Reps easy. Just click it, fill in the info and click the "click to call" button and you'll be automatically connected to the Rep's office.
This is it, folks. It's now or never. Too many of these guys got their seats with netroots support. (Rep Massa, I'm looking at you.) It's time for them to put up or shut up.
This is really funny stuff and I think Maffei was a great sport for playing along. He appeared on the Colbert Report last night as part of Colbert's "Better Know A District" series. It's inspired.
This is hilarious, if not completely pathetic. It seems that the NRCC, because they have nothing better to do and things are going so swimmingly for them, has decided to attack 18 freshman Dems, including Dan Maffei and Eric Massa, for, uh, not being Blue Dogs. No, really.
The National Republican Campaign Committee on Thursday went on the attack against 18 freshman Democrats who it said weren't fiscally conservative enough to earn stripes as "Blue Dog" Democrats.
The only problem was the Blue Dogs said those 18 didn't ask to be a part of the group, which is the most fiscally conservative coalition within the Democratic caucus.
That didn't stop the NRCC, which blasted press releases to the hometowns of 18 vulnerable freshman, targeting their votes in favor of the $787 billion economic stimulus bill and the $410 billion omnibus spending measure as running counter to their campaign claims to help restore fiscal responsibility to Washington.
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"The new membership list of the Blue Dog Coalition for the 111th Congress was released, but self-proclaimed "fiscal conservative" Rep. Harry Teague's name was noticeably absent," a version of the release read. "Despite Teague's rhetoric that he would be a good steward of the taxpayers' dollars in Congress, did the Blue Dog Coalition see Teague's claims as nothing more than empty rhetoric?"
Democrats charged Republicans with trying to score a cheap political point.
"This is yet another fabricated press release sent out by the Republicans who are looking to attack fiscally responsible, commonsense Democrats in the House," said Blue Dog spokeswoman Kristen Hawn. "It is shameless political ploy that has no basis in truth."
File this under "O RLY?" It seems the sad-sack dreamers at the NRCC have already started to circulating their, ahem, rather ambitious "target" list for 2010. That list includes five New Yorkers, including all three freshmen.
It makes some sense to me that they'd think they might have a shot at taking back NY-29. It's a pretty red district. Massa is smart and tireless. They'll make a run at him, but they ain't gonna out-hustle the guy.
To take back NY-13, they'd have to, ya know, actually find a candidate, something that turned into quite a soap opera last summer for them. And I don't think they are going to have a realistic shot at Maffei, even as a frosh.
They damn near picked off Arcuri in NY-24 last year, but I don't think that they'll catch him napping again, not to mention D-trip.
Gillibrand has proven to be one hell of a fundraiser and has worked her tail off to seal the deal with her district. She isn't going to be beaten anytime soon. I'm also pretty sure that they won't be lucky enough to find another self funding gazillionaire moron to take her on. Running a credible challenge to Gillibrand is going to cost money. Will they have it? I have my doubts. Even if they do have the moolah, I find it hard to believe they'd dump it into NY-20.
What's interesting to me is who didn't make their list. It seems that the NRCC won't be taking another shot at John Hall in NY-19.
Sorry, Mr. Lalor.
Oh, and I have a feeling that much of their effort in New York just might be sunk into defending NY-3.
The folks at CQ Politics seem to finally be catching up to the fact that the race in NY-25 xis shaping up to be not much of a contest at all. Today they upgrade their rating of the race from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored":
The writing is on the wall for the race to succeed 10-term incumbent Walsh, and it's not good news for his Republican Party. Democratic nominee Dan Maffei - who in 2006 ended Walsh's long string of easy re-election wins by hold him to a margin of under 2 percentage points - essentially never stopped running, and has established an overwhelming fundraising lead over the Republican nominee, former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland.
Maffei reported raising $1.9 million and had $599,000 on hand through Sept. 30. That gave him a 4-to-1 cash advantage over Sweetland, who reported raising $334,000 and had $137,000 in hand by the end of the quarter.
Sweetland has a fair degree of name ID in Syracuse, the 25th District's biggest city and the population anchor in its eastern end, from his days there as county council chairman. And the district, though generally trending Democratic, is hardly a slam dunk for the party, as presidential challenger John Kerry edged Bush there in 2004 by just 2 points.
But Sweetland entered this race late as a second choice after the original candidate recruited by party officials dropped out in late March citing health concerns. Sweetland needed to post blockbuster fundraising totals in the third quarter of the year, which runs July through September, to have the resources necessary to launch a strong final campaign push for the seat, and he appears to have fallen short of that horizon.
The Democrats made the 25th District race an early and top priority for the election cycle, and the cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee can offer little help to Sweetland.
The good folks at the Working Families Party are launching a mail campaign in support of endorsed challengers Eric Massa and Dan Maffei. The campaign is also part of their effort to urge people to vote for progressive candidates, from the top of the ticket on down, on Row E, the WFP line and to "Vote Change Like You Mean It." It's a campaign you'll surely be hearing more about in the next two weeks.
On November 4th, New Yorkers have a chance to do more than just vote for change. By voting for Obama on the Working Families ballot line - "Row E" - they can send a powerful message for universal healthcare, an end to war in Iraq, and for an economy that works for all us. It's a way to "Vote Change Like You Mean It."
As Katrina Vanden Heuvel put it recently in The Nation:
Some of us support Obama with unalloyed enthusiasm, while others regard his victory as essential simply to avoid the catastrophe of another four years of Republican rule. But all of us know that the real work doesn't end with a new administration in Washington. It will be more urgent than ever to organize locally and build a clear alternative to the neoliberal consensus that has dominated both parties. By supporting Obama and the Congressional Democrats on the Working Families Party line, New Yorkers can begin that work now. We urge our New York readers, and other readers with friends in the state, to spread the word on the value of voting Working Families - Row E - once again this November.
It's a message with particular resonance in Western New York, a place where working families have been besieged for decades and a real battleground for a number of really hot races up and down the ticket. Voting for progressive candidates on Row E says to the pols that you had better be putting working people first.
If you needed further proof that Democrat Dan Maffei will be the next Congressman in NY-25, look no further than the most recent financial filings: Republican Dale Sweetland took in 140K in the second half of 3Q, giving him 137K cash on hand, while Maffei took in nearly 400K and has nearly 600K cash on hand.
I still haven't figured out a way to upload pdf in a way that I can link to here on the siteHere's the pdf and here's the summary from the press release:
In a new poll released today, Democrat Dan Maffei holds a 49% to 31% lead over Republican Dale Sweetland in the race for New York's 25th Congressional District. A poll summary memo is attached.
The poll, conducted by the national polling firm Kiley and Company on October 1-2, 2008, was commissioned by the Maffei for Congress Campaign.
No surprises here, folks. Maffei will coast to victory here.
Update: The usual caveats apply -- small sample size, partisan poll -- and I don't think Maffei is likely to win by 18 points. But I do believe Maffei will win by 7-13 points. Obama wins the district by around 8, let's say. Then throw in two for the Indie line and another three for advertising. Then take off 1 for Howie Hawkins and 2 for the fact that the registration figures are more favorable than the Cook PVI. That leaves you with a ten point lead. Then plus or minus three since I really have no idea what I'm talking about. And you've got 7-13 points.
In NY-20, the group endorsed Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand in her reelection bid. The 21st Century Democrats included a profile of Gillibrand on their website, providing readers with some information on Gillibrand.
Kirsten's campaign for New York's 20th District is based on returning trust and accountability to government and reclaiming the days when government worked hardest for those who need it most. Kirsten is an accomplished civic leader, attorney, wife, and mother who understands that politicians are supposed to be looking out for you and are supposed to represent all citizens - not just those who can afford the most access.
The 21st Century Democrats also backed two candidates: Dan Maffei and Jon Powers in NY-25 and NY-26, respectively. The group also has profiles for Maffei and Powers.
The group had this to say about backing Maffei:
21st Century Democrats is excited to support Dan Maffei as he runs to represent New York's 25th district and convinced that he will continue to continue to fight for communities in New York and throughout America.
They had this to say about Powers:
Once elected to Congress, Jon Powers will demonstrate the positive and principled leadership our country needs. 21st Century Democrats is confident that Captain Powers' ability to lead by example will inspire other America to do the same and move our country forward.
Based on what I see, these are the only endorsements for candidates/elected officials from New York. Hopefully there are more to come (Eric Massa anyone?).
I really, really like the next Congressman from NY-25, Dan Maffei. He's a genuine progressive and he's running a great campaign. He's going to be one hell of an upgrade from the retiring Jim Walsh. It seems I'm not alone in my enthusiasm for Maffei. The College Dems of New York have officially endorsed Dan. Via email:
College Democrats of NY endorse Congressional candidate Dan Maffei
August 10, 2008- Heading into an uncertain economy with job loss, loan debt, an energy crisis and two wars, college students know that it is a time for a change in leadership in central NY. We need a politician from the grassroots who will move this country forward and who understands the issues of the everyday working man and woman. That is why the College Democrats of NY are proud to support Dan Maffei for U.S. Congress.
Dan Maffei has continuously supported the best interests of students, with his plan to forgive student loan debt for graduates who choose to stay in Central NY and enter service professions that we desperately need like teaching and social work. His plan to harness student talent coming out of local Universities to create job opportunities is something that every college student can be made proud. Dan Maffei is a real fighter for NY who will help bring the troops home and reinvest money into the upstate economy.
Daniel Levin, President of the College Democrats of NY, stated that "This is one of the most important races in the country and college students should be active in helping to change a history of Republican rule in Central NY."
The Cook Political Report has upgraded (sub req'd) the races in NY-13 and NY-25 from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic" and downgraded the race in NY-26 from "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican."
I can certainly see the reason for the upgrades, but I'm scratching my head over NY-26. I haven't seen anything in that race over the last month or so that would to seem to warrant such a move.
The other four are seats that are currently held by Republicans, three of which are open seats. In NY-13, Steve Harrison and Mike McMahon are vying for the Democratic nomination. Both received good news today as Rothenberg moved the race to Democratic favored. That designation can be attributed to many factors, namely the Republican recruiting woes that have made this race somewhat comical to watch.
Dan Maffei should also be smiling in NY-25. His race was ranked Democratic favored also. Dale Sweetland is his Republican challenger and doesn't come off as an overly strong candidate. Maffei has been strong on the issues, strong in the fundraising column AND a recently married man.
NY-26 and NY-29 both were ranked "Toss Up/Tilt Republican" by Rothenberg. In NY-26, Jon Powers is the front-runner on the Democratic side while Chris Lee has been sitting and waiting for the Democratic nominee. NY-29 has been a duel between Eric Massa and Randy Kuhl. Massa is looking very strong in NY-29 and has the ability to beat Kuhl. Kuhl is the only Republican who has decided to stick it out and run again.
The new Rothenberg Political Report 2008 House ratings are out with some great news for us. They have shifted two of our four races, all positively for the Democratic candidates.
NY-13 (McMahon, Harrison): This was the largest jump moving from toss-up/tilt Democratic to Democrat Favored
NY-25 (Maffei): This moved from Lean Democrat to Democrat Favored
Big news on the ad buy front today as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced more ad buys today, including $2.7 million for ad buys in NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29.
Moving quickly to capitalize on their massive financial advantage, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved television time in nearly two dozen more House districts, bringing their total investment in competitive contests to $53 million.
The new buy encompasses 20 districts and comes ten days after the DCCC dropped an estimated $35 million on ad time in 31 House districts. (A full list of districts in the new DCCC buy is after the jump.)
It also comes on the heels of the latest fundraising figures that show the DCCC outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee $22 million to $15 million over the last three months and, more importantly, ended June with $55 million in the bank, $46.5 million more than the NRCC.
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* An ad buy of 1000 points means the average viewer will see the ad 10 times during a given week.
This is big, especially since these three districts are districts we can win. I believe NY-13 isn't much of a contest and it's a seat that we will win fairly easily in November. But these three seats still need help from the DCCC. This shows the DCCC is committed to win these seats.
Also, the DCCC is spending under $3 million in the three seats Democrats won in special elections (IL-14, LA-04, MS-01). All three were Republican districts, so keeping them is crucial. I woud compare that to taking back the New York State Senate while keeping SD-48 on our side with Darrel Aubertine.
Other notables:
- Two of California's congressional districts will see a total of $2.03 million in advertising come their way. That means great things for CA-04 Democratic candidate Charlie Brown.
- WA-08 will see $949,000 in an ad buy to help out Darcy Burner.
A big and expensive television ad campaign began Tuesday for Democratic congressional hopeful Dan Maffei in his bid for the seat of retiring Republican Rep. James T. Walsh of New York's upstate 25th District.
Maffei's campaign said it would run television spots through Election Day, giving him a leg up over his Republican opponent, former Onondaga County legislator Dale Sweetland, who has been in the race for only three months. By contrast, Maffei barely paused after losing to Walsh by less than 2 percentage points in 2006 before gearing up for a rematch in 2008.
Walsh easily won his re-election bids until the near-upset in 2006, but demographics in the 25th mean Republicans do not have a stranglehold over the seat. They hold a slight registration advantage over Democrats, 36 percent to 32 percent, but a quarter of the district's voters are independent and the district favored Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry by 1 percentage point in 2004.
Maffei's fundraising advantage and exposure has led CQ Politics to change its rating on the race to Leans Democrat from No Clear Favorite.
Maffei had this to say after CQ's decision:
"Voters are clearly responding to my message of change and a new direction for upstate New York," said Maffei. "They are tired of the policies of the past that have hurt hard working men and women and caused this area to lose thousands of jobs. We can do better - we must do better in order to make our region a place where people can stay and raise their families."
Maffei is a very strong candidate. You couldn't ask for any better in the 25th.
With the fundraising figures slowing rolling in, Dan Maffei's campaign announced today that they raised more than $470,000 in the second quarter, topping their previous high of $369,000.
According to the campaign, they have raised a total of $1.3 million and now has over $950,000 cash on hand. Overall, more than 4,000 individual donors have given to the campaign including 1,700 in the second quarter.
Maffei also has a television spot out with the first airing set for today.
"We need to be able to communicate Dan's message of change and a new direction for central and upstate New York to as many people as possible between now and November," said campaign manager Daniel Krupnick. "Voters are anxious to hear what the candidates have to say now - not later. Dan Maffei wants to get his message about jobs and a new direction for upstate New York out to the voters every chance he gets. The ads will tell Dan's story and begin to lay out his plans to bring jobs back to central and upstate New York."
Great figures from the Maffei campaign. Also, that is a great spot. It sends a great message to voters and will resonate with the voters in NY-25.
Yesterday, NY-25 Democratic candidate Dan Maffei issued a statement regarding recent legislation targeting FISA that would provide immunity to telecom companies.
National security is essential to protecting our freedoms, but that doesn't mean we must sacrifice those very same freedoms because the Bush administration fails to respect the Constitution. Granting amnesty to telecom companies would set a precedent that would allow others to arbitrarily ignore the constitution. No one should be above the law in America. Because of this I would not have supported the recent legislation.
It is refreshing to know that candidates like Maffei, who could be in Congress next year, would vote against this legislation.
Earlier this week, NY-29 Democratic candidate Eric Massa wrote a blog post on Daily Kos explaining why he would have voted against this legislation. Massa concluded that blog post with these words:
I am running for Congress not to defend the White House, or the House of Representatives but rather to fulfill the oath of office that see to it that I Protect and defend the Constitution of the United States. If I fail in my votes to protect the Constitution then I will have not only failed the people who sent me to Washington but I have also failed the many generations of Americans who sacrificed to give us a Constitution that should guide each and every vote in the House of Representatives.
That is the story in a nutshell. You take an oath upon entering the House or Senate to protect the Constitution. It is great to see someone stand up and say that they will actually abide by that oath. This country is bigger than political parties, politicians and huge corporations. This country is epitomized in our United States Constitution. We need to keep it that way.
