This model describes Jim Alesi's fundraising, but you can pretty much apply a similar one to any member of the GOP Senate caucus. From the good folks at Rochester Turning:
This is actually quite a clever, if sneaky, way of getting you and I to contribute to Alesi's campaign twice. Here's how it works:
1) We pay taxes
2) They go into a slush fund, out of which, Alesi gets $3.9 M (for 2005-2006, which is the latest I could find from The Albany Project's very handy pork spreadsheet)
3) Alesi gets to look like a hero for funnelling some of that ca$h to various high-PR value interest groups (like the Jazz festival), and gets his name on things
4) The interest groups kick back money directly to Alesi's campaign fund
Like I said, this model works with just about the whole Senate GOP caucus. Just switch the names and you'll find the community groups that receive taxpayer money and then kick some of it right back to their benefactor. it's a nice trick having community groups and non profits essentially launder public money for political purposes and it happens all the time.
David Nachbar is facing a serious attack on the campaign trail. The SRCC, on behalf of Nachbar's opponent Sen. Jim Alesi, released an ad accusing Nachbar of some shady stock sales and targeting Nachbar for being named in a federal lawsuit initiated by former Bausch & Lomb employees who feel that they were wronged in their pension funds.
Nachbar's campaign responded to these allegations today in a press release featuring a couple of former Bausch & Lomb executives who praised Nachbar for his job as an executive.
A number of high-ranking business executives, including the retired CEO of Bausch and Lomb, came to the defense of State Senate candidate David Nachbar today, in response to a wave of misleading personal attacks ads. Two former execs issued statements today, in an effort to set the record straight.
According to Ron Zarella, retired B&L CEO,
"This type of attack shows how little Alesi knows about business. First, unfortunately, companies doing business in New York must deal with frivolous lawsuits all the time. This was a lawsuit that Bausch & Lomb had committed to fight. Second, Nachbar's stock sales were completely legal, reported and unquestioned by the SEC."
"It defies reason why a state Senator would attack one of the region's most respected companies and its employees."
The TV and direct mail ads were released this week by the Republican Senate Campaign Committee on behalf of Senator Jim Alesi. The ads in question used information taken out of context from a pending class action lawsuit against Bausch and Lomb, one of the area's top employers.
While at Bausch and Lomb, Nachbar was part of a leadership team that helped create over 400 new jobs. In his capacity as Senior Vice President for Human Resources, Nachbar built a strong record of accomplishments, detailed on his web site, in making the company one of the nation's best places to work.
Commenting about Nachbar's character, Dwain Hahs, retired SVP of Bausch and Lomb noted, "I worked for Bausch & Lomb for 28 years. I got to know Dave Nachbar well over the years and trust him completely."
Nachbar added today, "Alesi is upset about my demand to see results from his 12 years in office, and his 10 years as chair of the Economic Development Committee. With no record of results, Jim Alesi resorts to personal attacks. This is an example of how Albany works, and why I am running for office. We need to talk seriously about the issues that matter: creating jobs, cutting spending and taxes, and reforming Albany."
"It's unfortunate," he added, "that in their attempt to smear me, they also attacked a local employer that is one our best corporate citizens, one that has actually added hundreds of jobs to the Rochester economy. That's not very smart."
These are serious attacks against Nachbar. Of course, you always have to watch out for attacks that come from a party or attacks that are fed through the media by a party. This is what happened in this case and they should be taken with a grain of salt.
That said, Dave Nachbar is an honorable man and he is running an honorable campaign. Alesi is showing he's a desperate man.
Here's some video from the debate between SD-55 challenger David Nachbar, a guy who has actually created jobs upstate, and GOP incumbent Jim Alesi, who has not.
This segment includes both candidate's opening statements as well as their responses to the moderator's first question. I like the producer's use of a split screen for long sequences. Pay attention to Alesi. He looks like he really doesn't even want to be there.
To say that Nachbar outclasses Alesi in both style and intellect is something of an understatement...
It's a great deal if you can swing it, really. You give away thousands of public funds and then a good portion of those funds come right back to you as campaign donations. Though it's nowhere near as uncommon a practice as it should be, it's exactly what GOP incumbent Jim Alesi is doing -- essentially laundering public funds through a third party and then using them for his campaign. At the very best, it's a gross conflict of interest. Don't think the Nachbar campaign hasn't noticed.
David Nachbar, the former Bausch and Lomb executive challenging Jim Alesi, Republican incumbent state Senator (SD-55), issued a statement today charging that Alesi has taken money from a group that he regularly procures State money for.
Information released today by the Nachbar campaign shows that money moved from taxpayers to New York State coffers, from the state to the Rochester International Jazz Festival in the form of grants secured by Alesi, and then from the Festival to Alesi in the form of campaign donations.
Grants "to support/promote the Jazz Festival"
$145,000 in 2008-2009 Budget
$100,000 in 2007-2008 Budget
Donations from Jazz Festival to Alesi Campaign
$15,320 in contributions since 2004
"At best this is inappropriate," Nachbar said, "and Senator Alesi should know better. It's also only the tip of the iceberg. It makes plain, or more plain than usual, how 'member items' are a vital part of what Albany does best: get reelected."
"There is always a major benefit to the legislator with pork-barrel money, as Senator Alesi knows well: name recognition. As the result of these handouts of taxpayer money, his name is everywhere: programs, websites, news broadcasts, even on buildings. In this case, it looks like he actually got some cash back directly."
But, wait a second, you say. Isn't the Rochester International Jazz Festival, now officially the Xerox Rochester International Jazz Festival, some sort of non-profit org? No, dear reader, it is not. It is an LLC with big, fat corporate sponsors like Xerox and M&T Bank. That makes this story all the more troubling. An event with that kind of sponsorship probably doesn't need pubic money to begin with, especially since we don't have all that much money to spreading around anyway. It's not like the festival, awesome as it may indeed be, is going to educate a single child, help heat anyone's home this winter or lower a single family's property taxes.
The good news for Alesi is that they obviously didn't need all the money he's sent their way because they were able to turn right around give a nice little chunk of it back. The money didn't go back into state coffers of course, it went into Jim Alesi's campaign fund. I'm sure would thank you personally if he could.
Crap like this has been a cog in the incumbency protection racket for far too long.
The Democrat and Chronicle, the top daily newspaper covering the Rochester region, has endorsed two Democratic candidates for New York State Senate today. Paloma Capanna (SD-54) and David Nachbar (SD-55) received glowing endorsements today from the Democrat and Chronicle.
The endorsements were announced in an editorial today that also explained why the D & C refused to endorse any incumbents. They did not endorse a single incumbent - Democrat or Republican, Assembly or Senate - and only endorsed Capanna and Nachbar because they proved to them that they would actually change Albany.
From the D & C:
Among the challengers, only two, Democrats Paloma Capanna and David Nachbar, both candidates for the state Senate, persuaded us that they'd bring the kind of fresh, critical thinking needed to remake Albany. The Democrat and Chronicle enthusiastically endorses them.
Both campaigns have sent out press releases on these endorsements. You can read those below the fold.
The D & C also offered this interesting line about the area's incumbents:
It's not that the region's incumbents are worthless. Rather it's that they've failed to maximize their power to help bail out New York citizens.
The fact that the D & C only endorsed two candidates this time around really speaks volumes for the state of Albany. I'm glad the D & C sees it that way. I'm disappointed that they refused to endorse Rick Dollinger. In fact, they didn't even mention Dollinger's name in the piece announcing their two endorsements and their critiques of the incumbents. I found that to be interesting, but whatever the reason they have for not endorsing Dollinger should be explained. They explained why they didn't endorse Dollinger's opponent, Sen. Joe Robach. But nothing about why they wouldn't pick Dollinger.
In any event, this is a great day for two challengers who deserve plenty of respect and admiration. Capanna and Nachbar have proven time and time again that they will, if elected, go to Albany and change the ways that Albany's business is conducted. In an election year of change, reformers are necessary. Capanna and Nachbar fit that mold and that is why they received this endorsement.
Again, both campaigns' press releases are below the fold.
Alesi/Nachbar - this debate is now cancelled. Senator Jim Alesi (R-Perinton) of the 55th District committed to debate his opponent - Democrat David Nachbar - on September 9th. From that day forward I worked to schedule this, providing exact times and dates when we'd be available by the 30th of September. I placed countless phone calls to Sen. Alesi's campaign to nail down a date and was unsuccessful in getting something scheduled. On Friday Sen. Alesi called me directly to say his scheduler will nail something down this week - I was optimistic. Today I was told the Senator would not schedule a debate and was in essence backing out of his commitment.
I spoke to Senator Alesi directly a few moments ago and was told by him that he has "a very full schedule...and is committed to various other debates and candidate's nights." I was also told that it took me awhile to get them dates and times and that a debate with us just wouldn't fit into his schedule because he's also working "full time as a State Senator" right now too.
I'm told Mr. Nachbar remains ready and willing to debate should Senator Alesi change his mind or find openings in his schedule.
--emphasis mine.
It seems the Nachbar campaign noticed this absurdity as well. From an emailed release:
"The station's been getting the runaround," Williams said. "I can see only one reason why he would avoid debating on the station with the biggest audience. He's afraid of tough questions. The argument that he's too busy is nonsense. The Senate is on vacation."
"As long as we just talk about cardboard checks and ribbon-cutting photo-ops, and nothing else, Alesi does fine. Anything more substantive than that, and he's harder to find."
"This is probably the most important election of our lifetimes, both federal and State. We face enormous, urgent problems, mostly the consequences of years of failed, ethically challenged policies set in Albany and Washington. Voters deserve to know exactly what they can expect from candidates. They deserve every opportunity for a full discussion of the issues."
Nice try, Senator. Either you think your constituents are dumb or that they don't deserve to see the candidates debate some rather damn serious issues in a time of crisis.
If you're interested, you can listen live online here.
I also conducted an interview recently with Nachbar that should be up tomorrow or Thursday. Keep an eye out for that.
Nachbar's ActBlue page is still tops among New York State Senate Democratic candidates. He has raised $74,877 to date. I will have more on the ActBlue numbers from our state senate candidates tomorrow.
New York State legislators have something called a "franking privilege." That means that they can send out mailers, constituent newsletters and similar literature to those in their district at taxpayer's expense. However, the Assembly puts a moratorium on these mailings within two months of the election. The Senate though, still allows these mailings to be sent out right up until Election Day.
Today, David Nachbar took Republican Sen. Jim Alesi to task because Alesi has been sending out taxpayer-funded mailings. According to Nachbar's campaign, Alesi has sent out four taxpayer-funded mailings over the last month. The campaign says that the mailings have cost well over $100,000 to send out.
This is now the fourth glossy campaign-style mailing that Alesi has sent out on the taxpayer's dime in the past month. Ironically, this most recent abuse of taxpayer money touted Alesi's record of "real reform." The mailings have cost New York's taxpayers well over $100,000 this campaign season.
"Times are tough, and yet Jim Alesi has no problem spending our tax dollars to promote his image. This misleads voters about his record of reform. Senator Alesi recently reported that he has over $700,000 cash on hand in his campaign account. Using taxpayer dollars for his campaign is shameful, especially given our current fiscal challenges in New York State. I strongly urge he reimburse the taxpayers immediately."
From October 2006 to March 2008, Alesi spent $336,299 on mailings from his Senate office. While the State Assembly places a moratorium on constituent mailings 2 months prior to an election, the State Senate, which is notorious for crafting the house rules to favor the majority party, does not.
Nachbar said that if elected he would push for a similar moratorium, and a limit of two constituent newsletters per year for all members of the Senate.
Nachbar's campaign is one of several challenger races in the State, including two in the Rochester area, that could flip control of the Senate from Republican to Democratic. "This election is a major opportunity for change," Nachbar said. "I believe that there's hope, and that we can rightly expect much more from our government than what we've been getting."
I know I have received at least two mailings from my senator, Sen. George Maziarz. I have heard other stories from across the state about these mailings being sent out in the heat of election season. This should not be allowed and we need to make sure that when we take back the Senate, we impose our own moratorium. Taxpayer dollars should not be spent paying for campaign mailers, especially when those mailers are intended on informing the public about what you're doing as a state senator.
Remember the much-talked about gas tax holiday? The gas tax holiday was being pushed as a way to address the rising costs of gasoline and was proposed as a reprieve for drivers during the summer months. Some thought it was a good idea. Others thought it didn't address the real issue when gas prices are so high and oil companies are recording record profits.
David Nachbar unveiled his interesting proposal today which would permanently eliminate the tax on gasoline during the summer months. The outline of the plan is as follows:
- Eliminate the state's 32 cents per gallon tax from Memorial Day through Labor Day permanently.
- A windfall recapture plan consisting of a four percent surcharge to oil companies on gas sold at over $2 per gallon. The surcharge would not apply to the first $2 of gas prices. According to the Nachbar campaign, the recapture will restore projected consumer savings from the 2006 gas tax cap that failed to materialize. Analysts believe that oil companies mainly raised prices gradually and kept that money rather than passing the savings on to the consumers.
Estimated state revenue: $400 million
- A one percent tax on major oil companies' gross receipts in New York State with safeguards to ensure that oil companies simply don't pass along that cost to consumers at the pump.
Estimated state revenue: $200 million
- Revenue generated by the plan would be used for two purposes: Eliminating the state's four percent sales tax on the purchase of hybrid cars. There used to be an income tax exemption for hybrid cars, but that expired three years ago.
The revenue from this plan would also help fund Governor David Paterson's Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP).
Here is more on the plan for Nachbar:
Nachbar described his plan as a combination of two failed legislative moves from last legislative year. In May of 2008, Senate Republicans proposed eliminating the sales tax on gasoline. However, in what Nachbar described as an act of "utter fiscal irresponsibility," they neglected to offer any plan to replace the lost revenue. The move would have cut an additional $500 million from already dwindling state finances. Weeks later, Assembly Democrats passed a windfall profits tax on oil companies, similar to Nachbar's proposed legislation, intended to support the state's low-income heating assistance program. Neither proposal was acted on in the opposite house of the legislature, and both failed, in what Nachbar called "classic, dysfunctional, Albany-style political games."
"With our national economy continuing to slide into a recession, the one issue that really hits working families the hardest and most frequently is skyrocketing gas prices," Nachbar said. "And yet, this past year, Albany decided to play politics with two very important issues. My proposal sidesteps the political games and seeks real bipartisan solutions, by merging two proposals into one."
The key with the gas tax holiday is replacing the lost revenue from such a tax cut. If you can do that, that will gain more support than a gas tax holiday without replacing those lost revenues. This plan is strong. Gas tax holidays aren't perfect, but if you can find a way to replace the lost revenues, they become much more viable. Nachbar did that with this plan.
Alesi's TV advertising, coincidentally, is being produced by former County Republican party chair Steve Minarik's advertising firm.
Minarik, you may recall, is the legendary former Monroe County GOP Chair whose stint as New York State GOP Chair was among the most disastrous in state political history. He was supposedly kicked to the curb by the Monroe County GOP a few months ago, but more than one person has told me he's still the man behind the curtain. This would seem to corroborate that.
With the 32 day pre-general election filings rolling in, David Nachbar has submitted his filing which shows that he has raised $111,931.64, $74,335.00 of that total coming from individual contributors. Nachbar also spent $255,479.76 mainly due to the two television ads that Nachbar has already put.
Nachbar's opponent, Republican Sen. Jim Alesi, has a large filing with over $706,000 cash on hand. Alesi has benefited greatly from corporate, PACs and special interest donors. While most of Nachbar's money came from individual donors, most of Alesi's came from corporations ($40,150.00), PACs and special interests ($89,800.00) and transfers in from certain committees, like Joe Bruno's ($9,500), Dean Skelos ($9,500) and the Monroe County Republican Committee ($101,982.00).
The Nachbar campaign also saw the difference. In a press release about their filings, they exude a positive attitude about where they are getting their money, what that means for their campaign and what that says about their campaign.
One striking difference in the campaigns is the source of the money raised so far by the candidates. The majority of Alesi's funds come from Political Action Committees, corporations, and Republican Party organizations. The Monroe County Republican Committee, for example, contributetd over $100,000 to the incumbent's campaign. Alesi's TV advertising, coincidentally, is being produced by former County Republican party chair Steve Minarik's advertising firm.
Nachbar's reported donations, in contrast, come almost entirely from individual donors. Nachbar campaign spokesperson Kate Bardsley said, "The nature of the money says a great deal about the nature of the candidates. Dave is proud of the fact that his message is resonating with individuals and working people, who have been unrepresented in State government for too long.
Cash-on-hand figures, which are not directly indicative of relative strength of campaigns, show Alisi with an incumbent's advantage. Alesi, who started the race with over $500k, ended the period with a balance of $706k, while the Nachbar campaign reported just under $80k on hand. The imbalance partly reflects the Nachbar campaign's earlier roll-out of a sizable TV advertising campaign, which involved significant spending outlays. The campaign expects the pace of advertising spending to continue through the election.
While reported financial numbers are important, they never tell the whole story. In Nachbar's case, unnamed State Democratic Party officials asserted that "the party is fully committed to this race."
Nachbar has shown that he is a great fundraiser among individuals and has received outstanding support from individuals. His ActBlue page proves that.
Make no mistake: Nachbar is in this race. The money does tell one story here. That is the Republicans are investing locally into Alesi because they know Nachbar is a real contender. They wouldn't be giving all that money to Alesi if Nachbar was just a token candidate. Keep that in mind.
You can read the full endorsement here. This is an excerpt from the endorsement announcement:
David Nachbar is a strong supporter of LGBT rights who has made it clear that he will not stand for any kind of discrimination. In his previous position as Senior Vice President of Human Resources at Bausch & Lomb, Nachbar helped the company achieve a perfect score from HRC's Corporate Equality Index by extending equal benefits to the domestic partners of employees.
Nachbar told The Albany Project that he is running because "right now we're at a very important point of time, an important moment of choice, and that is that we can choose between staying down the path that we're on right now - a path which has failed - or we can choose to take a new direction." Nachbar would lead the charge in the Senate in the direction of equality for all New Yorkers. In his Pride Agenda candidate questionnaire, he could not have been any clearer in his support of the LGBT community when he said: "I believe that the civil rights issue of our time is equality for the LGBT community, and I will unequivocally support any measure that will contribute to full equality for LGBT people under the law."
In addition to his commitment to vote for issues like marriage equality, banning discrimination against transgender people and making schools safe for LGBT youth, Nachbar would take the extra step to co-sponsor these bills. In his candidate questionnaire, he also expressed a strong desire to do whatever it takes to advance equality for the LGBT community, including holding press conferences, hosting and attending forums, meeting with constituents, and working together with the Pride Agenda.
Nachbar has proven to be a progressive on key social issues. This endorsement shows that he will have a great standing among the LGBT community and will defend their interests and he has also shown that he is pro-choice with endorsements from NY ChoicePAC and NARAL Pro-Choice New York.
The folks at RochesterTurning have been doing a fantastic job of keeping up with all the polling going on in the Rochester area. Here's the latest: Jim Alesi's campaign is running a push-poll, or a negative message-test poll, against David Nachbar.
Would you favor a candidate who's playing in politics because they're bored with their job?
Would you favor a candidate who has a history of tax evasion and bankruptcy?
Would you say a candidate who supports Gov. Patterson's plan to recognize gay marriages performed in other states reflects your values?
I believe this probably is a push poll, not simply a negative message-testing poll, because the first two questions are obviously so negative.
This means one thing for sure: Alesi is nervous. This race could be a big sleeper. It's not getting the attention some other races are, but Nachbar's a strong candidate and Alesi may not be quite as accomplished a glad-hander as he's reputed to be.
- Paloma Capanna, a candidate who is running arguably the most grassroots campaign in the state against Republican Sen. Michael Nozzolio. Nozzolio has never faced a challenge to his seat in the 54th Senate District.
Each candidate spoke and gave brief remarks (see below the fold). If you listen to anyone's remarks, please listen to Capanna's. She gave the most passionate speech I have ever seen in such a short amount of time about the need to replace these Republicans. I really liked Barber's remarks too considering it was the first I've had the chance to see him in person.
There are few things you won't see in these videos. Something Sen. Smith said really resonated with me, especially during this election season. The Republicans will play the downstate card any chance they get because that's really all they have against the Democrats. Sen. Smith stressed "One New York" during his remarks, some of which you will see on video and some of which weren't recorded.
Democrats are united statewide, whether it's Brian Foley running against Sen. Caesar Trunzo or Joe Mesi running for an open seat here in Western New York. We have real chances to win seats on Long Island, in New York City, retain a key seat in the North Country, win seats in the Southern Tier and pick up a few seats here in Western New York. Having three of our leaders from the Senate who represent New York City districts come to upstate and show their strong support for candidates means a lot. There are a lot of key races up here and they are clearly paying attention.
At the event today, the future majority leader led off things before introducing the candidates:
I really like this from our candidates. Following last week's event here at City hall in NYC, a number of our upstate candidates are holding another event in Rochester. It's a great way to score some free media at a time when interest in these races is really beginning to pick up steam. (And trust me, that interest really is picking up. My server logs don't lie. Google action on these races is through the roof in the last few weeks.)
From an emailed release:
Upstate Democratic Senate Candidates Blast Republicans for Failing New York State
(Rochester, NY) Throughout their 40 years in control of the State Senate, Republicans have failed to meet the needs of working class New Yorkers and revitalize the Upstate economy. With a struggling economy statewide, rising energy costs and crumbling housing market in Upstate communities, New York can no longer afford the unfulfilled promises of Senate Republicans. Democratic candidates for the State Senate are holding a press conference to blast Republicans for failing to make the changes needed to get New York back on track.
Invited:
So to set the record straight, here is a revised press release announcing this endorsement:
NARAL Pro-Choice New York, the State affiliate of a leading pro-choice advocacy group, announced the endorsement by its Political Action Committee of former Bausch and Lomb Senior Vice President David Nachbar (D) for State Senate. Nachbar is running in the 55th district, which includes roughly half of Monroe County. The Nachbar campaign announced the August 27, 2008, endorsement today.
Katherine Grainger, NARAL Vice President of Public Policy and Political Initiatives, cited Nachbar's "dedication and leadership on reproductive rights issues." On the organization's Web site, incumbent Alesi's voting record and positions are staunchly anti-choice, making for a clear contrast with Nachbar.
"I greatly appreciate this endorsement," Nachbar said. "This district needs someone in Albany who will represent our community's pro-choice values. I strongly support women's reproductive rights, an area where government should not intrude into women's private lives."
Nachbar's campaign is rated as one of the top challenger races in the State, in a year that may well produce an historic change in control of the Senate from Republican to Democratic. "This election is a major opportunity for change," Nachbar said. "I believe that there's hope, and that we can rightly expect much more from our government than what we've been getting."
I know I made a quick note of this yesterday but the campaign wanted to make sure that they set the record straight and that it was NARAL Pro-Choice New York, not the national organization, that endorsed Nachbar.
CORRECTION: It was NARAL Pro-Choice New York that endorsed Nachbar, not NARAL Pro-Choice America. My apologies for that error. - Robert
If you asked me a month ago if I would consider David Nachbar a pro-choice candidate, that would have been a difficult question to answer. Not that Nachbar isn't pro-choice (he is a strong supporter of women's reproductive rights and is pro-choice) but Nachbar is a former executive, making him an ideal candidate to talk to about doing business in New York, high taxes, Empire Zones/IDAs and improving New York's economy, especially in SD-55 where new leadership is needed.
But Nachbar has proven that he is a pro-choice candidate. Last week, Nachbar was endorsed by NY ChoicePAC which is a PAC that formed to elect more pro-choice legislators to our state's Legislature.
Today it was announced that Nachbar has received NARAL Pro-Choice New York's endorsement, giving him another key endorsement from arguably the most prominent pro-choice group in the country.
In making the endorsement, NARAL spokesperson Katherine Grainger cited Nachbar's "dedication and leadership on reproductive rights issues." On the organization's Web site, incumbent James Alesi's (R) voting record and positions are staunchly anti-choice, making for a clear contrast with Nachbar.
"I greatly appreciate this endorsement," Nachbar said. "This district needs someone in Albany who will represent our community's pro-choice values. I strongly support women's reproductive rights, an area where government should not intrude into women's private lives."
Nachbar's campaign is rated as one of the top challenger races in the State, in a year that may well produce an historic change in control of the Senate from Republican to Democratic. "This election is a major opportunity for change," Nachbar said. "I believe that there's hope, and that we can rightly expect much more from our government than what we've been getting."
The more you hear about Nachbar, the more you realize the type of progressive voice he will be in Albany. He is very intelligent on issues affecting our economy, taxation and business but also showing that he a very well rounded candidate who can handle a lot of tough issues and a lot of key issues to the progressive movement and to Democrats, not only in SD-55 but statewide.
ANALYSIS SD-11 - Rating changed to Leans Republican: The rating was altered after research into this district and Sen. Padavan. The enrollment advantage goes to the Democrats and Jim Gennaro can run a strong campaign. But there is a reason Padavan has won this district over and over again. Is he vulnerable? To some extent he is. It is a Democratic year in a predominantly Democratic district so he should worry. His incumbency isn't in total danger though.
SD-25 - Primary between Connor and Squadron: The winner of the general will be a Democrat. The question is which one? Will it be the veteran Connor? Or will it be the challenger Squadron, who is mounting a very serious challenge to Connor's incumbent.
SD-61 - Three way Democratic primary: This is another important primary because this seat could turn blue in November. Ratzenhofer is a Republican in a slightly Republican district, but this is not a safe seat for the GOP. A Democrat can win this seat. Now we just need to settle a three-way Democratic contest before moving forward.
