Dean Skelos has Discovered Spam

by: Roatti

Tue Jan 05, 2010 at 17:30:52 PM EST

2011 is going to be a year of PROGRESS for New York State. With your help, we will take back the New York State Senate and begin to change the current direction our state government has taken!

2010 is going to be a year of HOPE for New York State. With your help, the voters will send a very clear message on Election Day - they will reject the policies of increasing the size and role of government and elect Republicans throughout the state who understand the need for the private sector to create jobs and grow our way out of this mess.

Today is a day of ACTION: we are one State Senator away from reversing this trend and I would like you to join me at our 2010 Launch Reception in New York City on January 11, where we will begin the process of change leading up to Election Day in November (see the invitation below).

In order to make this change happen, we will need to raise the funds necessary to organize and get our message out - the same message that New York voters responded to this past Election Day. I have asked Governor Pataki's former Finance Director, Patrick Donohue, who helped raise over $500 million for worthy candidates over the past 15 years, to help organize this fundraising effort. He and his team will be contacting you over the next couple of days to follow up about your participation in our fundraising launch event on January 11th. Please RSVP directly with Crystal Padley at (212) 576-1197 or send an email to rsvp@maxdonor.com. VIP tickets to the reception are $1,000 per person and general tickets are $250 per person. We will also have a private Host Committee dinner afterward for those who are committing to raise and/or donate from $5,000 up to $50,000 (see details below).

Thank you for your continued commitment to the principles of cutting taxes, responsible budgeting and a less expensive government - these are the principles that will not only Take Back the Senate in 2010, but they will help us ensure a robust New York State for our children and grandchildren in 2011 and beyond.

All the best,
Dean

Senator Dean G. Skelos
New York State Senate Republican Leader
NYS Senate Republican Campaign Committee
PO Box 7229
Albany, NY 12224-0747

It's funny, because I wasn't aware that the Senate GOP needed any pesky things like elections to take back their majority.  Info on reporting spam to the FTC:

If you get spam email that you think is deceptive, forward it to spam@uce.gov. The FTC uses the spam stored in this database to pursue law enforcement actions against people who send deceptive email.

And btw, nothing says hope and progress like Dean Skelos.

Round 1 -- it's unconstitutional

by: Dan Jacoby

Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 08:49:18 AM EDT

The text of the judge's decision is available here.

I'm not a lawyer, but since the judge agreed not only with my conclusion by also with my reasoning I find the decision to be clear and well-written; others may disagree.

GOP tiring of Pedro's shit: "Oh my God, what have we done"

by: Putney Swope

Fri Jun 19, 2009 at 21:19:24 PM EDT

Oh, right. I did.

As Espada Speaks for Them, a Republican Coalition Maintains Its Posture

They're allied with him in the quest to wrest control of the State Senate leadership, but there are some lingering misgivings among Republicans in the chamber about the partnership with State Senator Pedro Espada Jr.

"Several of them are in 'Oh my God, what have we done' mode," said one Republican who is close to many of the senators. "Pedro is obviously enjoying this immensely. The image of Dean standing mute while Pedro pontificates is a little much. And the general stoppage ... some are saying we never should have done it, some are saying, they should have said bring three or four or don't come."

That much seemed clear Thursday when the two top figures in the Republican-led coalition-Espada and State Senator Dean Skelos-emerged from a negotiating session.

Espada proclaimed he had Skelos' support. Skelos said nothing. When pressed, his comments were less than clear.

Later in the day, Skelos issued a statement decrying attacks against Espada and touting the historic nature of the first Latino to attain the title of president pro tempore. There was also this line: "The members of the Senate Republican Conference stand solidly behind Senator Espada as Temporary President and we look forward to building our reform coalition together."

Still, no first-person declaration. Skelos was pressed by the Times Union's Irene Jay Liu in a walk-and-talk. She asked if Skelos was "going to stand by him throughout this."

"I'm going to stand beside him because that was the vote of the Senate," Skelos said.

He's all yours now, Senator. Lucky you. You get what you pay for. You can thank your pal Tommy Golisano.

Let's review.

Democrats? Tired of Pedro's shit.
His constituents? Tired of Pedro's shit.
and now the GOP? Yeah, tired of Pedro's shit too.

This was never about "reform." It is about power and patronage. They just proved it.

by: Putney Swope

Tue Jun 16, 2009 at 12:51:56 PM EDT

The "coup" plotters tried to tell everyone last week that their sham revolt was about "reform" and opening up the Senate. Most people paying any attention knew they were full of shit the minute they opened their mouths. But now everyone knows it to be true. Why? Because, as we now have a 31 all tie, everyone knows that there is going to have to be some sort of power sharing arrangement. The Senate will have to be more open under any such scenario.

Yesterday, in a closed door meeting between many of the principals, the Dems offered what looks to be a pretty good deal, one that the remnants of the "reform coalition" rejected out of hand.

During negotiations, Senate Democrats proposed a power-sharing plan to Senate Republicans that would include the following provisions:

  1. On session days, rotate the position of temporary president between two the parties on a daily basis.
  2. The floor leader from the opposition party would be preside with opposing temporary president "to provide better balance."
  3. A bipartisan committee of 6 senators, three from each party, to set the session agenda.

When asked about the terms of the proposal, a Senate Republican spokesman said that the discussion didn't go as far as a formal proposal, so it really wasn't something on the table to accept or reject.

Senators in attendance:

Democrats: Sens. Malcolm A. Smith, John  Sampson, Jeff Klein and Carl Kruger.

Coalition: Sens. Dean Skelos, Tom Libous,  John DeFrancisco and Democratic Sen. Pedro Espada.

Sounds awfully damn "equitable" and "bipartisan" to me. It would also have let the Senate get back to doing the work we pay them to do. But such an agreement would not do for the plotters for one simple reason. All that talk about "reform" was straight up bullshit. These guys and their new pet, the ethically challenged moral pygmy, Pedro Espada, now arguably the highest ranking Republican in the entire state, never had any interest in any of that stuff. The GOP wanted their cushy offices back and to be able to turn on the patronage spigot once again. Tommy Golisano wanted to show he world that no one could check their blackberry whilst he pontificated about something or other. They both needed someone who could be bought off relatively cheap. Pedro and his pal fit the bill perfectly. They had to know that Pedro was a two bit punk and opportunist who had been rebuffed by the Dems when he tried to funnel $2 million bucks to sham non profits he's created just days previously, something he has quite the rep for.

So they decided to make him second in line to the Governor and gave him some laughable talking points about reform. It looked like this, an image that we as a state will carry with us in shame for a long long time:

But then they had a problem. Their little coup fell apart. Hiram got a serious case of buyer's remorse and backed away from this little cabal of suckitude. That leaves the Senate all knotted up at 31 votes apiece. Neither side can do a damned thing without at least some cooperation from the other. They can't even gavel in a session without someone from the other side playing along.

This would seem to mean that there needs to be some sort of power sharing agreement, no? The Dems offered one. The GOP decided to let the rest of the world know that all their talk of "reform" was utter tripe by rejecting it out of hand and by then returning to the very court they had asked to dismiss the case and begged for "judicial intervention." Why? Because they have no interest in getting back to the people's business under any arrangement that doesn't leave them in complete control.

It was always transparently ridiculous that the very people who fought against any reform at all for 40 years had had a sudden change of heart and did so while adopting and elevating probably the single most ethically challenged person in the entire chamber. Did anyone really believe any of this stuff? It was always about power, perks and greed.

They proved as much last night.

Skelos and the Republican "Majority" Put Politics over Constituents

by: BingChester

Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 23:42:41 PM EDT

What interests?  Well what do you think happens to all of the bills our Senate majority was about to pass?  If you guessed purgatory, you're right on the money.

More over the fold.

Skelos: The Vote's The Vote Now, But The Vote Wasn't The Vote Then

by: BingChester

Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 15:50:39 PM EDT

"There was a vote last week, 32-30, and that vote stands...The vote's the vote."

Hmm, that's interesting.  I recall Senator Malcolm Smith making a similar argument about the original 32-30 vote taken way back in January of 2009.  I'm glad to see Senator Skelos recognizes that the vote of a majority should stand.  I look forward to seeing him cede the Majority Leader seat back to Malcolm Smith.

Is Skelos Backing Away From Mondello?

by: phillip anderson

Mon Mar 30, 2009 at 16:53:32 PM EDT

One GOP consultant who isn't working on Tedisco's camapign suggested this race could actually end up being a "perfect storm," leading to calls for the ouster of party leaders all the way up the food chain.

On the line are local leaders like Saratoga County's Jasper Nolan, an early champion of Tedisco and veteran chairman who has weathered several failed coup attempts; state Chairman Joe Mondello, who presided over the meeting at which the 10 county chairs picked Tedisco and was under fire even before the party's historic loss of the state Senate majority last year; RNC's Michael Steele, who was the first to suggest the 20th CD contest would be a bellweather of the national GOP's ability to make a comeback.

The rank and file of the NY GOP is not happy and it would seem they have every right to be upset. This was a race that they should by all rights be running away with. Some will blame the DC GOP for bigfooting the race with truly disastrous messaging and others will point the finger at the county chairs who picked Tedisco over other well liked Republicans who, you know, actually live in the district.

I think that no matter what happens tomorrow, there is going to be some bloodletting and I think Dean Skelos' interview on Fred Dicker's radio show this morning was an ominous sign for state GOP Chair Joe Mondello. When Dicker asked Skelos if Mondello should be replaced if Tedisco loses tomorrow, Skelos did something that surprised me. He didn't dismiss the question or defend a man he's rather closely allied with. He didn't object to the question or deny the possibility. He basically said that this was a decision for the county chairs. No defense of Mondello whatsoever. Nothing.

If I were Joe Mondello, I'd be getting my resume in order because it appears that the knives may indeed be out for him and the first cut, always the cruelest, may come from someone he always assumed had his back.

Typical

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 19, 2009 at 16:02:34 PM EDT

And no, I am not making that up.

Point, Laugh

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 03, 2009 at 17:18:28 PM EST

Shortly after it was presented by Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, Senate Republicans held a press conference to complain that the deficit-reduction package was drafted without input from Republican members of the State Senate.

"You've had all the talk about unity and reform," said State Senator John Bonacic, responding to the outline of a proposed bill to bridge this year's $1.6 billion budget deficit. "When you have a secretive process, you lose out."

Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos, his voice at times rising to a shout, gestured to the members standing behind them - most with hair some shade of silver - and asked who had more expertise in solving the deficit: former long-time committee chairs "or Hiram Monserrate?"

...

"Pick our brains a little bit, have a discussion," Skelos said, before adding that his senators will be voting against measures "because of the lack of transparency" and because he doesn't approve of what he called "stealing" from a SUNY tuition hike and from the accounts of various public authorities.

"Shame on you!" Bonacic screamed on the State Senate floor.

Haahahahahahaaahahahaaaaa.

Sun Setting On Skelos; Mondello: Delusional or Lying To You?

by: phillip anderson

Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 11:27:18 AM EST

Senate Republicans should prepare for life in the minority, which may provide a springboard to recapture the majority in two years, state Republican Chairman Joseph Mondello said Wednesday.

Emerging from a closed-door meeting with county chairpersons, the longtime Nassau County power broker said he thinks it's unlikely Senate Republicans will be able to persuade dissident Democrats to join them in a coalition to retain power, as they are now trying to do.

"I think it's remote," he said. "That's not the way people behave."

That's all fine and well. I mean, there was a reason the GOP caucus chose Skelos to man the wheel after Uncle Joe Bruno Decided to get out while the getting was still good. (And don't for a second think that Bruno decided to go completely of his own accord. There was plenty of pressure within that caucus pushing for him to get lost, particularly from the younger members.)

But Dean was chosen precisely because most folks in and around that caucus knew that they were likely to lose their majority this year. Dean is not particularly well liked by anyone in the Senate, in either party. It was decided to let Dean hold the bag for and take the blame for the coming defeat. It's really that simple. Of course, Dean also didn't do himself any favors by pouring fantastic sums into longshot vendetta races while neglecting his incumbents. It was bad strategy and bad caucus politics. Now both Skelos and Mondello are taking their lumps for performing pretty much exactly the way most Republicans in the know and especially the GOP caucus in the Senate expected them to.

Which brings us to the rest of what Mondello had to say yesterday.

"There's not much further down we can go," Mondello said.

Au contraire, Mssr. Mondello. You know that isn't true. I know that isn't true. In fact, anyone paying attention knows that isn't true.

He then goes on to intimate that the losses are setting the stage for future victories. Now, Joe knows for a fact that the Democratic margin in the Senate will be larger on E-Day 2010 than it will be on January 7, 2009 when the new Senate is sworn in. He knows that with their majority gone, gone also are the massive advantages they built into that majority. Buh bye, unfettered franking privileges. Sayonara, to all that free flowing member item dough. Oh, and guess who won't be calling the shots on redistricting in 2010.

So, Mr. Mondello, There is a lot further down you can go. I know as party chair you have to keep a somewhat positive spin for the consumption of your rapidly dwindling donors and dismayed activists, just don't try to feed that nonsense to the rest of us, OK?

It's going to be a long time in the wilderness for the New York GOP. Demography is a large part of that, but the party itself deserves a healthy part of the blame as well, including folks like Mondello and Skelos and Bruno and Pataki and D'Amato and Treadwell. As the ever shrinking GOP caucus in the Senate tries to revive their fortunes by critiquing state government from the sidelines, let no one forget who was behind the wheel of the state's upper chamber for the lion's share of the last century. They certainly aren't solely to blame for the bloat and dysfunction in Albany, but it's not they'll wake up next month and suddenly be unfamiliar with the beast they helped create.

Things can most assuredly get worse for them and they most likely will get worse, both short term and long term.

Joe knows that.

Election Follow-up: Skelos' Big Gamble in the Donno Campaign

by: nassaupolitics

Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 16:14:57 PM EST

Why You Should Be Afraid And Why Albany Needs To Get To Work

by: phillip anderson

Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 19:49:29 PM EST

Yes, the stock market crashed again today, but many people rightly point out that the Dow is not the economy. It isn't. This is:

The Baltic Dry Index is one of the oldest economic indexes in the world. It's been kept since the middle of the 18th century and it essentially is a gauge of the cost of shipping raw materials across the globe. It has dropped 98% since May of this year. Back then, a Capesize cargo ship would cost you about $235,000 a day to ship your iron or corn or bananas. Today, that same ship - one with at least 170,000 tons of capacity - will set you back around $5,600 a day. Yes, you read that correctly.

Put simply, the cost of shipping has dropped through the floor. Sending a tonne of iron ore from Brazil to China in early June would have set you back more than $100 (£62) per tonne, or around $15m per voyage. But freight rates have now dropped to only slightly over $10 per tonne, or just $1.5m for the 70-90 day journey.

Add to that this news from the Times:

Gleaming new Mercedes cars roll one by one out of a huge container ship here and onto a pier. Ordinarily the cars would be loaded on trucks within hours, destined for dealerships around the country. But these are not ordinary times.

For now, the port itself is the destination. Unwelcome by dealers and buyers, thousands of cars worth tens of millions of dollars are being warehoused on increasingly crowded port property.

And for the first time, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Nissan have each asked to lease space from the port for these orphan vehicles. They are turning dozens of acres of the nation's second-largest container port into a parking lot, creating a vivid picture of a paralyzed auto business and an economy in peril.

"This is one way to look at the economy," Art Wong, a spokesman for the port, said of the cars. "And it scares you to death."

That's not the port's only problem either. The loads of cardboard that are usually sent back to China so that they can repackage all those consumer goods they normally ship to us are piling up all around them because no one in China wants it anymore.

But the inventory glut in Long Beach is not limited to imported cars. There has also been a sharp drop in demand for the port's single largest export: recycled cardboard and paper products.

This material typically goes to China, where it is used to make boxes for new electronics and other products that are sent back to the United States. But Chinese factories reacting to sharply falling demand are slowing production, so they need less cardboard. Tons of paper are piling up recycling businesses around the port, the detritus of economies on hold.

That, friends, should give you a chill. Global economic activity fell off a rather steep cliff about 6 weeks ago and the signs that it will rebound shortly are awfully scarce. This recession could quite easily become another Depression and it will definitely get worse before it gets better.

That's what makes the situation in DC - where we are essentially rudderless with a numskull ideologue at the wheel - and in Albany, where one could make a compelling case for aggravated legislative malpractice and dereliction of duty, all the worse. In Washington, we are forced to wait for real leadership at east until January 20th. Not much we can do about that, though the fact that we are for all intents and purposes in a holding pattern during the most acute economic crisis of most of our lifetimes has certainly got me worried. The time for big, bold action is right now.

But the folks we send to Albany to do the People's business have no such excuse. The absolute abdication we witnessed this week should be impeachable. This crisis is real and the state's budget needs to be adjusted to reflect that. Yeah, there are many hard choices to be made, but that's no excuse for throwing their hands in the air and punting.

And this is bigger than budget cuts versus revenue increases. I personally think that the Governor's plan is flawed by it's reliance solely on cuts on the backs of the poor and middle class. I think a modest increase in taxes on those who can most afford them is perfectly reasonable if not prudent given the nature of the challenges we face. That said, I believe now is the time to take a much more comprehensive look at the way we finance state government here in New York.

Wall St is taking a vicious beating right now, but it will eventually come back. It will never be the Wall St of the last 15 years or so again though. New York was able to avoid hard choices (or even wise ones) for so long because we were able to milk the Wall St cow for so long. Those days are over and most likely are gone forever.

We need to seriously restructure how we pay for government and what it is we pay for. It's time to put all options on the table and to get serious about how we pay for what we want going forward long term - not just over the next fiscal year.

I'd suggest a radical overhaul of the public authorities to start. But, then again, I don't make $90K a year to do the People's work part time. We already elected a bunch of folks to do that for us.

They had damn sure get busy because the wolf is at the door.

SD-7: Nice One, Skelos: Donno Even Lost Plandome Manor

by: phillip anderson

Tue Nov 11, 2008 at 22:04:17 PM EST

Skelos and crew dropped more than $800,000* on Barbara Donno's bid against Sen. Craig Johnson (D-Port Washington). She lost Plandome Manor, where she's mayor, early tallies say.

I'm sure Frank Padavan thanks you, Senator Skelos.

*And I'm sure that $800K number is way too low.

(h/t to Nassau GOP Watch.)

SD-7: 11 Day Pre-General Spending on Republican Barbara Donno

by: nassaupolitics

Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 13:51:52 PM EDT

For a candidate who says she isn't a "typical politician" and promises to "... work to be your voice in Albany", taking over a MILLION DOLLARS from Albany isn't the way to do that.
We're looking at over 90% of Donno's campaign money coming from Dean Skelos and the Albany republicans.
Donno is bought and paid for by Dean Skelos so don't expect her to do anything except be what Skelos wants her to be.

With Nothing Else in His Playbook, Skelos (SD-9) Plays the Fear Card

by: nassaupolitics

Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 03:09:38 AM EDT

"God help the people of Long Island if the Democrats from New York City got control of the Senate"

Hannon (SD-6) Joins Marcellino (SD-5) in Willingness to Cut School Aid

by: nassaupolitics

Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 10:43:15 AM EDT

Yesterday we posted a video of Senator Carl Marcellino saying he is willing to cut school aid from Albany to fix the state budget. That sorta ruined the foundation of Dean Skelos' attack on Democratic Senator Malcolm Smith last week.
Today we have Sen. Kemp Hannon, another Skelos BFF, saying essentially the same thing Macellino did.  

Dean Skelos Costs New York $1 Million A Day

by: phillip anderson

Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 10:06:14 AM EDT

New York Budget Deficit Grows Due to State Senate Republican Block, Say Democrats

(New York, NY) $6 billion in debt, Senate Republicans are costing the state $1 million a day due to their unwillingness to accept an agreement reached between the state and Buffalo-based Delaware North to operate the Video Lottery Terminal franchise at Aqueduct. Even after instructions by Governor Paterson to cut the state's budget to address the fiscal crisis, Senate Republicans are throwing away money that could be used to repair the crumbling economy and bolster Upstate New York.

State Senate Democrats have launched a daily calculator to track how much the Senate Republicans are costing the state due to their failure of leadership."

It's pretty outrageous that Skelos and the Senate GOP would play politics with this issue given our current economic crisis. With the Governor calling back the legislature next month for a lame duck session to cut the budget even further, you would hope that all parties would be interested in any and all revenue streams available to them.

Apparently, this just isn't true with Dean Skelos. He's seemingly willing to let $1 Million dollars a day just evaporate. I mean, it's not we could really use that money or anything...

Remember, You Heard It Here First

by: phillip anderson

Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 17:09:18 PM EDT

Second, some analysis from Bruce Gyory at Newsday.

The battles will be fought in Republican districts, not on Democratic turf and therefore will resemble in miniature the 2006 race for the control of the Congress. Moreover, in light of these polls, it will be very difficult for the Republicans to justify spending money to try expanding the field of contested races to additional Democratic seats.

In the two Democratic seats polled: Craig Johnson in Nassau and Darrel Aubertine from the North Country held huge leads over their Republican challengers. Craig Johnson led Barbara Donno by 24% (49% to 25%) and Aubertine lead Renzi by 20% (51% to 31%). These margins were huge, considering that the Republicans' campaign committee was reported to have already spent $1 million on the two seats.

In my last blog, I speculted that Senator Dean Skelos would try to expand the number of contested Democratic seats beyond Johnson and Aubertine. Given that nine Republican Senate seats are being actively contested, it could prove controversial within the Republican Conference to spend money speculatively against Democratic Senators like Stachowski in Buffalo and Oppenheimer in Westchester, when Republicans like Padavan in Queens and Volker not to mention Alesi in Western New York are under pressure.

We've been writing about this for months now. After all the crowing about how awesome their recruiting was going to be, Bruno and Skelos mainly ended up with their second and third choices, not the top tier candidates that they were promising. It's been plainly obvious for quite some time, long before Bruno decided to ride off into the sunset and leave Skelos holding the bag, that this cycle was going to be fought for GOP seats, not Dem seats. Skelos apparently didn't get the memo though, as he has been spending loads of money on offense with second and third tier candidates while a good number of his incumbents, the folks that actually raised a good deal of that money, have been twisting in the wind. Skelos has been telling donors and others that they were actually going to win seats this year, but the results so far speak for themselves. They are in trouble and everyone knows it.

Dave Renzi isn't going to win back SD-48. Liz Feld isn't going to beat Suzi Oppenheimer. Andrea Stewart-Cousins isn't going to lose to the woman whose name I have already forgotten.

The battlegrounds are on their turf and they are playing defense from Suffolk to Canada. What's even worse is that they have to play defense perfectly. They have absolutely zero room for error. Given the way that Skelos has run the show so far, spending millions on longshots and neglecting his incumbents, I'd say that's a pretty tall order for Dean.

Back to Bruce:

Right now, in light of this polling data showing Johnson and Aubertine blowing away their Republican challengers, the number of truly contested races has been reduced to nine seats, all held by the Republicans. Also the Republicans have to be nervous that they have alredy spent at least $800,000 to bolster Serph Maltese in Queens and are in a tie with Addabbo. This may resemble the lost Spano seat from Westchester, to Republican strategists. A seat lost in 2006 after an 18-vote victory by Spano in 2004. Bottom line is that no matter how much the central Senate Republican camaign committee spent on the Spano seat, they could not overcome changing political demogrphics.

The net result of what this Siena polling data reveals is that if Skelos' political team proposes spending big political resources on expanding the playing field,at this point, it may be met with resistance from incumbent Senators. If they could not move the dial by spending a million dollars against their top targets Johnson and Aubertine, do they want to risk spending another speculative million dollars against second-tier targets? The Senate Republicans under assault (and their allies) may demand that the remaining resources of the central Republican campaign committee be focused on saving incumbent Republicans.

In 2006, this same pattern hit the national Republicans and what they found was that when you are on defense it is very difficult to resist the opposing political tide. You play great defense in one seat, but that opens a surprise hole in other districts. I feel great sympathy for Senator Skelos in light of this predicament. It is the consequence of the poor candidate recruitment ,which came under his predecessor's watch, who left in late June,when the candidate matchups were already set. It was not Senator skelos' fault.I understand how and why Skelos' team wishes it could change the map, but that is probably too late.

I have to disagree a bit here. I can guarantee you that Barbara Donno wasn't recruited by Bruno. This is Skelos' vendetta race. Craig Johnson is his white whale and Skelos and Mondello took it awfully personally when they lost the SD-7 seat. Sure, blame Bruno for some of the others, but the Donno is all Dean's.

That said, I think the rest of Bruce's analysis is spot on and echoes much of what I and others here have been saying for a long time. The Dems aren't going to lose any seats this year, no matter what Skelos says. This really is much like the national playing field in 2006. The GOP is on their heels and the potential exists for significant Dem gains on election day.

But the Dems have to be smart, flexible and opportunistic, much like the DCCC in '06. The one significant advantage that the GOP holds is financial (which is why I'd prefer Skelos to not abandon his current strategy). Dems need to raise money and quick. They are still in better shape than they have been historically, but this is their year and they need the funds to be able to exploit opportunities as they arise. They need to be able to spread the playing field and drain the other side for maximum advantage. The second to none WFP field operation needs to be able to pivot on a dime as well. Money is important, but so is a top notch ground game. Many of the GOP incumbents haven't serious challengers in years, maybe ever. In these races, the WFP team can be even more decisive as they have been training up great folks for quite some time now and the local GOP machines might be a bit rusty.

The long and the short of it is that we simply aren't losing any seats this year. All the battlegrounds are held by the GOP. All the money that Skelos spent on offense is gone and now he's got a number of imperiled incumbents who probably aren't too pleased with him right now. The stage is set for a big year, the year, for Dems and the state Senate. A little discord in the ranks is the cherry on top.

The next 6 weeks are going to be epic. I hope everyone has got some comfy shoes and a phone  free nights and weekends. Can we capitalize on our good fortune?

We're all about to find out.

NY DSCC Responds To Skelos

by: phillip anderson

Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 13:40:55 PM EDT

Statement from Austin Shafran, Spokesman for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Re: Senator Skelos's Criticism of Siena Poll

"Senator Skelos's understanding of statistics and polls is equivalent to the Senate Republicans' understanding of arithmetic and budget- both ways New Yorkers lose," said Austin Shafran, spokesperson for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee.

Ouch.

Skelos Gets Pwned By Siena

by: phillip anderson

Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 13:17:34 PM EDT

"I don't believe the Sienna poll is correct and we have our own internal polling that polls that have been done within all of these different district within the past 20 years that indicate a lot different," Skelos said.

"You know, they use the random digit dialing. Sienna has never done a poll in a senate districts and random digit dialing, for all you know, all the phone calls could've gone into Great Neck."

First, as I have already said, I don't believe that the methodology on these polls is bulletproof. One could conceivably make a reasonable critique of a number of factors. But, that's not what Dean did. He stated as fact that Siena was using "random digit dialing" in an effort to discredit the results, results he's obviously not happy with. It was an odd tack to take, to say the least. The problem is that he's absolutely 100% wrong. (Either he just pulled that one out of his rear end or he's deliberately trying to be misleading. You choose.)

Azi talked to Steven Greenberg at Siena:

I just got off the phone with Siena pollster Steven Greenberg who said Siena "does not use random-digit dialing to conduct it's statewide or senate district polls." He also said steps are taken to ensure "appropriate geographic disbursement" within polling areas. Greenberg said, "We call off voter lists."

So a day after Skelos sent Conway out to spin the Siena polls as much as possible even though the consensus opinion by pretty much the entire statewide media was that the polls show that Dean's strategy of playing offense and telling folks that they would actually pick up seats this year was essentially DOA, he decided to just make stuff up about the pollster to discredit the results.

Did he really think the folks at Siena were just going to let him do that?