It's a hell of an achievement when you think about it. The teabaggers took a seat that had been in Republican hands longer than anyone on the face of the Earth has been alive and lost it. Then, in a brilliant and shrewd maneuver of towering genius, managed to lose it all over again just two weeks later.
It's over. Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, leads by 3,105 votes with 3,072 absentee ballots left to be counted.
With about 70% in, Owens lead continues to grow. Unless Hoffman has many thousands of votes stashed in the St Lawrence county districts where they are having machine problems, I just don't see how he beats Owens. Does Hoffman have a secret Watertown Palinite contingent? I doubt it.
I think the next Congressman from NY-23 is Bill Owens.
It did not take long for the NRCC to announce their support of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman after their candidate, Dede Scozzafava, abruptly dropped out of the race. They made the announcement earlier today, with Congressman Pete Sessions (R-TX), head of the NRCC, Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority WHIP Eric Cantor (R-VA) releasing a joint statement calling on Republicans to support Hoffman in the 23rd congressional district.
Here is part of the statement (H/T to TPM):
"With Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspending her campaign, we urge voters to support Doug Hoffman's candidacy in New York's 23rd Congressional District.
"He is the only active candidate in the race who supports lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and opposes Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government-run healthcare, more government and less jobs.
"We look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation."
But this is a different tune that the Republicans are singing. It wasn't long ago that they were defending Scozzafava and attacking Hoffman, saying he lacked "integrity" and "cross party appeal" to win.
Here are some quotes from the NRCC giving their assessment of Hoffman:
"Fortunately, the local Republican county chairs had the foresight to see that Doug Hoffman lacked the integrity and qualities needed to be elected to anything - let alone Congress," Lindsay added. [The Hill, 9/28/09]
The national GOP acknowledges Hoffman and his moneyed supporters make their job harder, but they emphasize Scozzafava is still the favorite.
Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the NRCC, said Hoffman's political calculus doesn't add up.
"We're pleased that the Republican county chairs in New York had the foresight to not even consider Hoffman among the final three candidates, and the Washington-based endorsements and misleading political ads that are meant for his benefit will ultimately backfire on his futile sour-grapes campaign," Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/03/09]
The National Republican Congressional Committee bristles at Mr. Hoffman's campaign, with a spokesman arguing that he's "running a smoke-and-mirrors campaign that has absolutely no path to victory and is based entirely on Washington-based endorsements that carry no weight among voters in central and northern New York."
NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said Mr. Hoffman doesn't even technically live in the district and also said Mr. Hoffman had promised to back the Republican candidate before withdrawing that support and deciding to run.
"At the end of the day, we could not be more pleased that Dede is the only candidate who possesses the principles and cross-party appeal that is needed to win in this swing district," Mr. Lindsay added. [Washington Times, 10/06/09]
"There is still a path to victory, and we will continue to support [Scozzafava]," NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/26/09]
Some conservatives support Scozzafava, insisting that a one-size-fits-all strategy isn't a good approach to districts such as New York 23.
"Outside endorsements will not change the fact that she's the only candidate with the cross party appeal that can win this swing district," said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. McClatchy, 10/30/09
Amazing what one day will do to the NRCC's approach. One day they are backing their candidate saying she can still win while standing by their past opinions of Hoffman and the next day, they are already welcoming Hoffman to the House GOP conference.
Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.
The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate.
"Today, I again seek to act for the good of our community," Ms. Scozzafava wrote in a letter to friends and supporters. "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations."
Ms. Scozzafava told the Watertown Daily Times that Siena Research Institute poll numbers show her too far behind to catch up - and she lacks enough money to spend on advertising in the last three days to make a difference. Mr. Owens has support from 36 percent of likely voters in the poll, with Mr. Hoffman garnering 35 percent support. Ms. Scozzafava has support from 20 percent of those polled.
A GOP source tells TPM that the National Republican Congressional Committee is going to get behind Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 special election, now that moderate Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava has dropped out.
Hoffman is in a close race with Democrat Bill Owens, and Scozzafava suspended her campaign today after polls showed her in third place. With the NRCC's backing, Hoffman will go from insurgent third-party candidate to being the de facto new Republican nominee.
NRCC chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) will have a statement out shortly.
This is an unconfirmed rumor, so take it for what little it's worth. However, according to the reports of one right-wing activist on the ground in the NY-23d district is that the National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling out of the district days ahead of the vote next Tuesday.
The NRCC has been one of Scozzafava's only serious backers inside the party, with a reported plan to spend $300,000 on her campaign. Whether that actually happened is anyone's guess, but if true, an NRCC withdrawal would probably spell doom for Scozzafava.
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has run a far-right campaign. That is not "breaking news." The goal of his campaign is to run to the right of Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava, who is more of a traditional conservative or moderate (instead of a neo-conservative), based on her record.
One of the targets of Hoffman's campaign has been Scozzafava's alleged liberalism. Apparently, being pro-choice and pro-marriage equality qualifies you as a liberal even if the rest of your record isn't necessarily progressive.
Like Scozzafava, Pataki is pro-choice. When Pataki was being mentioned as a possible 2008 presidential candidate, the issue of abortion and his standing as a pro-choice Republican was seen as a weakness in the GOP primary. While he isn't supportive of marriage equality, Pataki is supportive of equal rights and believes that individuals in the gay community should be protected. He came out in opposition to a constitutional amendment banning marriage equality and during his time as governor, signed legislation that would provide protections to members of the gay, lesbian and bisexual communities.
Pataki also proved that he is no friend of the tobacco industry. He proposed raising taxes on cigarettes to help cover costs associated with health care in New York.
In perhaps the best example of just where Pataki stands among the far-right, Human Events came out with their Top Ten RINOs rankings in December 2005. Number six on the top ten list? Governor George Pataki.
Here's what Human Events had to say about him:
Helped unions raise pay and unionize Indian casinos. Has said, "I believe in a limited government, low taxes, a tough approach to crime. ... But I also believe in an activist government. I'm not one of those laissez-faire types."
Pataki was joined on that list by Mitt Romney, who was then governor of Massachusetts. He did have good company: Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island was number one and New York Congressman Sherwood Boehlert was also on the list. Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) was on the list too, along with Maine's duo of moderate senators: Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.
Who does the Pataki endorsement help more? Apparently, Pataki. Endorsing a right-winger might get him in the door with other members of the Palin Party. But a quick look at his past shows that he hasn't been a good friend to the right-wingers in the past and they haven't exactly been welcoming to him either.
In Hoffman's case, this endorsement raises a good question: If Scozzafava is bad because she is a "liberal" Republican, why is Pataki's endorsement a good thing? Better yet, was it even solicited? Will it be seen on the list of other endorsements, which include Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and other members of the Palin Party?
I can't imagine they would tout this endorsement. Pataki has a lot of similarities to Dede Scozzafava. So Hoffman being endorsed by Pataki is like Hoffman being endorsed by well, Dede Scozzafava. And since she is an evil liberal Republican, that's not a good thing (at least for him).
I can't say I saw this one coming. It seems that George Pataki has decided to embrace the wingnuts and make common cause with the likes of Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Michelle Bachman, Pat Buchanan, Michelle Malkin and Rick Perry by endorsing Con candidate and teabagger darling Doug Hoffman.
As someone personally engaged in the way of life in the Adirondacks and Northern New York, I'm deeply concerned about the course of our nation and the outcome of the election in the 23rd Congressional District.
Simply put, we cannot afford to give another vote to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid we cannot afford another vote for higher taxes, we cannot afford another vote for government run health care and we absolutely cannot afford another vote to take away from hard working men and women the right to secret ballot.
That is why tonight, I'm proud to endorse Doug Hoffman, a Republican, running on the Conservative line for Congress in the 23rd Congressional District.
So, Pataki is making nice with the teabagging fringe by endorsing their flavor of the month. Here's what I want to know: why? To what end? Why is one of the last moderate Republicans, a man with next to nothing in common with the Malkin wing of the GOP, jumping into this race on their side?
A new Research 2000 poll commissioned by Daily Kos shows that the mess in the NY-23rd special election is getting nothing but messier. Compared to the previous poll, Democrat Bill Owens is again statistically tied--but this time, it's with Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Owens takes 33%, Hoffman 32%, and Republican Dede Scozzafava has slipped down to a distant third with 21% of the vote. Scozzafava and Hoffman were nearly reversed in the last poll, with the Republican getting 30% and the Conservative 23% respectively.
Undecideds in the new poll clocked in at 14%, making the whole thing very much up in the air.
Clearly, Scozzafava has suffered under the combination of the constant teabagging, the far-right endorsements of Hoffman--who has now taken the lead among registered Republicans--and the failure of her campaign to manage events.
I'll tell you what Dede should have done: Run as a Democrat. God knows there's more tolerance for diversity of opinion and moderates over here than there is back in the Republican caucus.
NY Teabag Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long made an appearance on Hardball this Friday and did his best Sarah Palin impersonation, i.e. not saying anything of substance about ANYTHING.
This race just keeps getting more fun to watch. The late breaking news tonight is that Caribou Barbie herself has endorsed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. That's right. The GOP's most recent VP nominee just declined to endorse the GOP's candidate and went on and gave her blessing to the teabagger. The ever awesome Weekly Standard has the scoop.
THE WEEKLY STANDARD just received a statement from Sarah Palin endorsing conservative Doug Hoffman for Congress:
The people of the 23rd Congressional District of New York are ready to shake things up, and Doug Hoffman is coming on strong as Election Day approaches! He needs our help now.
The votes of every member of Congress affect every American, so it's important for all of us to pay attention to this important Congressional campaign in upstate New York. I am very pleased to announce my support for Doug Hoffman in his fight to be the next Representative from New York's 23rd Congressional district. It's my honor to endorse Doug and to do what I can to help him win, including having my political action committee, SarahPAC, donate to his campaign the maximum contribution allowed by law.
Our nation is at a crossroads, and this is once again a "time for choosing."
I wonder if she can see Watertown from her house?
I'm not kidding when I say that I'm going to be sorry to see this one end.
"Tea Party Patriots" are planning to be field volunteers for Conservative Doug Hoffman, who is running against Republican Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens to replace John McHugh in NY-23.
The Albany area teabaggers' message boards are full of disgust for Scozzafava, a six-term Assemblywoman who is moderate on some social and labor issues.
And, along with North Country and other nearby teabaggers, they will be putting some hundreds of boots on the ground for Hoffman between now and Election Day.
A Wall Street Journal article last week noted that the teabaggers are "waging war" on moderate candidates like Scozzafava.
And indeed, there is some martial teabagger rhetoric, below.
Democrat Bill Owens has come from behind to open a slim lead over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the race for the 23rd Congressional District seat, according to an independent poll released today.
If he holds onto his lead, Owens, a political newcomer, would become the first Democrat to represent the rural 11-county district of Northern and Central New York since the Civil War era.
Owens erased a 7 percentage point deficit in the past two weeks and is now the frontrunner with 33 percent of likely voters, the Siena College poll found.
Owens leads Scozzafava by 4 percentage points and Conservative Doug Hoffman by 10 points, according to the poll taken this week by the Siena Research Institute.
The House GOP conference is bitterly divided over a centrist New York Republican's run for the House seat vacated by Army Secretary John McHugh.
Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who backs abortion rights and has voiced support for gay rights, has drawn a challenger from the right who is running on the Conservative Party line. And though House leaders have urged conference members to donate, many have pointedly refused to back Scozzafava.
The Club for Growth, Concerned Women of America, former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) and evangelical leader Gary Bauer have all endorsed Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate.
The divide could foreshadow bigger troubles ahead for a party that hopes to make big gains in the House in 2010 and dreams of taking back the majority. Some members think that will be impossible as long as the party is divided over supporting centrist candidates.
"The Hoffman campaign is a real revolt against the Republican establishment and leadership, not just in New York but nationally," said a conservative GOP congressman, adding that Scozzafava's candidacy "could set off a civil war inside the Republican Party."
I find myself nodding and shaking my head in agreement with a lot of the latest commentary on the 23rd special election from Markos. I've said from the beginning that I was uncomfortable with Owens, a lifelong independent who doesn't seem to support a progressive agenda or even a mainstream Democratic agenda. All signs say that we would be better off with the most liberal Republican in the country than another conservadem in a Congress that already has too many conservadems. This blog is not simply a Democratic blog; it's a progressive blog, created by progressives who want to take back Albany. In the same way, that alliance towards the progressive agenda can and should take priority over an alliance to a subpar Democrat facing a quite decent Republican.
With nearly a month to go before the special election in the 23rd congressional district, Siena has released a poll showing Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava with a seven point lead over Democratic candidate Bill Owens.
Scozzafava comes in at 35 percent with Owens behind her at 28 percent. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, who has been trying to tout himself as the conservative option to Scozzafava, stands at 16 percent.
Some of the other highlights of the poll include:
- The poll asked respondents who would be the best candidate on six different issues: The economy, health care, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, education, homeland security and bringing federal dollars to the district. Owens won or is tied with Scozzafava on five of the six issues. The only issue Owens lost to Scozzafava was the economy (25 percent to 23 percent, according to the poll). Those surveyed said that Owens would be best to address health care, the wars abroad and homeland security, while he tied with Scozzafava on education and bringing money to the district.
- An endorsement from former Congressman John McHugh might be helpful in the eyes of some voters. Of those surveyed, 40 percent said an endorsement from McHugh would make them more likely to support a candidate. Only seven percent said McHugh's endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate.
Here are some other details from the press release:
Scozzafava leads Owens 53-23 percent, with 10 percent for Hoffman in the western North Country counties (Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence). Owens's largest lead is in the Central New York counties of Madison, Oneida and Oswego, 30 percent to 20 percent each for Scozzafava and Hoffman. The Democrat and Republican are virtually tied in the five counties of the eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, and Hamilton), 32 percent for Owens, 31 percent for Scozzafava and 18 percent for Hoffman.
Scozzafava is viewed favorably by 33 percent of voters and unfavorably by 20 percent, with 47 percent not having an opinion. Owens has a 23-12 percent favorable rating, with 64 percent of voters undecided, while Hoffman has a 16-13 percent favorable rating, with 71 percent of voters undecided.
The good news for Owens is that he is still in this. He also has a good showing when it is broken up into issues. Being able to be trusted on certain issues is key and when voters trust you more than the Republican on most issues, that says a lot (even though he still trails in the overall poll).
Keep in mind that Owens has stayed out of the limelight for most of this. He has a few TV ads out, but he's let Scozzafava and Hoffman duke it out. That has its advantages. But he will need to get this party going if he plans on winning next month.
Governor David Paterson made the official announcement today setting the special election in the 23rd congressional district for November 3, this year's Election Day.
Governor David A. Paterson today issued a proclamation calling a special election to be held Tuesday, November 3, 2009, to fill a vacancy in the 23rd Congressional District due to the resignation of Congressman John McHugh.
"This special election will ensure that the residents of all or parts of Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis, Madison, Oneida, Oswego and St. Lawrence counties are represented in the U.S. House of Representatives," Governor Paterson said. "I encourage all eligible voters to come out to the polls on November 3, 2009 to select their Member of Congress."
Governor Paterson issued the special election proclamation pursuant to Section 42 of the Public Officers Law. The Proclamation orders and proclaims that an election for a Member of Congress be held in the twenty-third Congressional District, including all or parts of Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis, Madison, Oneida, Oswego and St. Lawrence counties and shall be conducted in the manner prescribed by law for elections in New York State.
This election is unlike any other. You have what conservatives are calling a liberal Republican - Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava - running on the Republican line. You have a moderate independent - Bill Owens - running on the Democratic line. And then you have a conservative Republican - Doug Hoffman - running on the Conservative Party line. It really is an odd election, to say the least. But it is an election nonetheless.
The Republican-conservative battle in the 23rd congressional district race is fun to watch and there is more coming out about the extent of it.
Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava's campaign passed along an e-mail to the Watertown Daily Times and in that e-mail was a message from Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman offering his support.
Jude Seymour from the Watertown Daily Timeshas the story:
Doug Hoffman pledged to help Dede Scozzafava in an e-mail sent two days after the Republican Party passed over the Lake Placid accountant for the nomination.
The e-mail, sent from Mr. Hoffman's business account on July 24 and provided by the Scozzafava campaign, states in full: "Hi Dede, Congratulations and the best of luck in your candidacy. Let me know if there is anything I can do to help. Doug."
...
I asked Mr. Hoffman today - through his spokesman - to explain why he told Ms. Scozzafava one thing and me another.
Here's the response I got from Rob Ryan, Mr. Hoffman's spokesman: "Like most Republicans, Doug Hoffman had no idea how liberal Dede Scozzafava is. The fact that Scozzafava has voted for higher taxes, increased spending and gay marriage proves she is way to liberal for the voters of upstate New York."
So Hoffman is one of two things: Either he is an opportunist who first promised support only to get backing from the Conservative Party in a run for Congress OR he really didn't know what Scozzafava was all about.
If it is the former, that wouldn't be surprising. It wouldn't be the first time a candidate saw an opening and realized that with the Conservative Party's help, he could run to the right of all candidates and try and rally the base for an upset victory.
But if it is the latter, it should raise questions about how just informed Hoffman is. He says he didn't realize just how "liberal" Scozzafava was and yet, she voted for the marriage equality bill in the Assembly back in 2007. Since Scozzafava has been labeled as "liberal" for only being pro-choice and pro-marriage equality, you would think that would have been a wake-up call for Hoffman. That's a vote everyone knows about, especially in political circles. He could have looked it up or he could have already know about it.
This whole battle has been all about ideology and nothing else. Hoffman, a fellow Republican, has gone after Scozzafava and labeled her as a liberal even though she isn't a full-blown liberal. Being left-of-center on two issues doesn't make her a liberal. Being left-of-center on ALL or MOST issues does.
With the NRCC posting stories that are more anti-Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava than anything, one has to wonder if there are Republicans who are quietly trying to sabotage Scozzafava and get behind Conservative Party candidate (and registered Republican) Doug Hoffman.
Also on the conservative front, former Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson endorsed Hoffman as well. In endorsing Hoffman, Thompson makes it clear why he did so.
"Doug is a conservative, who understands that our freedom is our greatest strength, that life is a precious gift, and that getting back to our founding principles will ensure our nation's security and prosperity for us and for our children and grandchildren."
Notice the use of "conservative" at the start and this phrase: "That life is a precious gift." That is a slight jab at Scozzafava for her pro-choice positions. Hoffman has noted many times that he is against abortion.
This is an odd race. The Republicans picked a candidate who is pro-choice and pro-equality, clearly a sort of change of pace from what the GOP normally nominates. Then the Conservative Party, angry at the GOP pick, selects a conservative Republican to run on their line. The Democrats followed by selecting a moderate independent to run.
Now, there is clearly a battle between the conservative wing of the Republican Party and the Republican Party. Conservatives seem to be making it their goal to elect Hoffman instead of the "liberal" Dede Scozzafava.
This is interesting for many reasons. For starters, it shows a great disconnect in the Republican Party. Conservatives have dominated the party for years and when that is challenged, they get outraged. So much for moderate Republicans being able to stand up and be counted too. (Of course, we all remember how John McCain was received by the likes of Ann Coulter and company.)
Letting Hoffman and Scozzafava go at it could benefit Owens. But Owens needs to show Democrats that he is on our side. Picking an independent has its advantages in this race, but for the party loyalists and progressives, it raises some questions. For example, people want to know whether or not Owens is pro-choice. That hasn't been made clear. We shouldn't have to dig too far for those answers, yet those answers haven't been given. We need to know.
All eyes are on this race. It's going to be a heck of a ride.
Earlier this week, I wrote about the NRCC posting a story on their website from Human Events that labeled Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava as "too liberal" and questioned her ties to ACORN because of past endorsements by the Working Families Party. If you go to the page on the NRCC website where the story was posted, it has since been removed.
Today, the NRCC posted a this story from The Hill on their website. The piece describes Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, and his labeling of Republican candidate Scozzafava as "liberal."
Conservative Party special election candidate Doug Hoffman is up with an ad in the race for former Rep. John McHugh's (R-N.Y.) seat, and it takes square aim at the GOP nominee.
Hoffman, who has garnered plenty of attention as a little-'c' conservative alternative to centrist GOP Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, uses the ad to push Scozzafava to the left.
The ad features a series of costumed characters and suggests Scozzafava is trying to hide her real ideology. The last costume features a suit and a Ronald Reagan mask.
"Pretending can't make you a Reagan Republican," the narrator says.
Look for Hoffman and Democratic nominee Bill Owens to continue to focus their message squarely on Scozzafava, who enters the race as the frontrunner.
The NRCC posted this story on their website. However, as you will notice if you follow the link, they have since taken the story down.
It makes you wonder where the NRCC stands. Do they support Scozzafava, who is the Republican in this race? Or do they support Hoffman because he is the conservative (ideology, not party) in the race?
It raises this question again: Do the Republicans support the Republican Party or do they support the conservative ideology? Would they rather go for ideology or the win for their party?
I know that there are progressive Democrats who would put their ideology first. But they would never put a Democrat in danger of losing to a Republican. The Republicans are throwing their candidate under the bus in the name of the conservative movement.
