Emil Henry, Jr., a former assistant Treasury secretary under George W. Bush and executive at Lehman Brothers, has been in discussions with state Republican officials about the possibility of running for governor next year, according to people with knowledge of the conversations.
After President Barack Obama's speech to Congress, Louisiana Congressman Charles Boustany, a cardiothoracic surgeon, gave the Republican rebuttal.
You can read the whole speech here. Let's take a look at it one segment at a time.
"Republicans are pleased that President Obama came to the Capitol tonight. We agree much needs to be done to lower the cost of health care for all Americans. On that goal, Republicans are ready - and we've been ready - to work with the President for common-sense reforms that our nation can afford.
"Afford is an important word. Our country is facing many challenges. The cost of health care is rising. Federal spending is soaring. We're piling huge debt on our children. And families and small businesses are struggling through a jobless recovery, with more than 2.4 million private-sector jobs lost since February.
"It's clear the American people want health care reform, but they want their elected leaders to get it right. Most Americans wanted to hear the President tell Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Reid and the rest of Congress that it's time to start over on a common-sense, bipartisan plan focused on lowering the cost of health care while improving quality. That's what I heard over the past several months in talking to thousands of my constituents.
We all can agree that health care costs are high. It is a fact that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation in the world. Yet, our quality of care does not correspond with the money we are paying for that care and that is without millions of those who are uninsured who do not have access to such care.
Health care reform is about costs. But it is also about improving access to health care and insurance. Not mentioning that shows where the Republican mindset is on this issue. For them, it's all about selective fiscal conservatism. It was okay to spend billions (perhaps into the trillions now) on the war effort in Iraq. But it is not okay to spend that money on your own citizens to make sure they have the best access to health care.
"Replacing your family's current health care with government-run health care is not the answer. In fact, it'll make health care much more expensive. That's not just my personal diagnosis as a doctor or a Republican; it's the conclusion of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office - the neutral scorekeeper that determines the cost of major bills.
Obviously, the Republicans haven't been listening. A single-payer system - which is where we should have started with in this discussion - would create that government-run system they talk about. The public option? Not so much.
The Republicans are trying to scare families into opposing reform. They are trying to say that the government is going to move in and replace your health care. That is not what the public option will do. The public option is there to provide an opportunity for those without insurance to get insurance. That is why the public option will exist and that is why a public option is necessary.
"Let's also talk about letting families and businesses buy insurance across state lines. I and many other Republicans believe that that will provide real choice and competition to lower the cost of health insurance. Unfortunately, the President disagrees.
This was a concept pushed by 2008 Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain. It was dismissed then and it will be dismissed now. The reasons are many. For one, allowing this would create a consumer protection mess. The Republicans wouldn't mind that (see financial crisis) but when you are talking health insurance, it's not a good thing.
Also, as the New America Foundation showed last year, premiums would go up, benefits would decrease and more people would become uninsured over time. So instead of serving as reform, this would create more of a problem.
Altogether, Boustany mentioned lowering the cost of health care five times in his speech. He talked about improving quality. But not once in his speech did he mention increasing access to health care or insuring more Americans. The cost of health care is a problem. The quality is also a problem. But providing more and better access to health care is also a problem and Boustany and the Republicans failed to address that, which was a glaring omission in their poorly constructed rebuttal.
I am going to make something clear: I, along with many other Americans, are sick of these "concerned citizens" who stand up and ask questions that are meant to pose as legitimate questions but really are questions fed to them by Republicans, conservatives and the tea party organizers to shift the debate to their side instead of taking a serious look at health care reform.
So, here's the deal: You stand up and ask a question, I look into you. Period.
"On page 30 of that bill, you call it a committee, you call it a commission, you call it a death panel. Somebody is making a decision for my health, and I don't want that."
So who is Ms. Tillinghast?
She is a former Kodak executive who would not be impacted by the health care bill. After all, if she has private health insurance, she can keep that insurance. The goal isn't to target people like Ms. Tillinghast. The goal is to target people who don't have health insurance coverage.
Ms. Tillinghast also is a Republican donor, having given $1,450 to Republican candidates and committees in 2004 and 2006. She gave $200 to the George W. Bush presidential campaign in 2004, $250 to the RNC in 2006 and made two $500 contributions to the NRCC in 2006. Locally, she hasn't given much. She did make a $100 contribution to Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, a Republican.
It is one thing to be a real, concerned citizen who has serious questions about the bill. Those people do exist. It's another thing when your question is derived from a desire to derail reform for political gain.
There are a lot of myths about health care reform. Part of the problem is that Republicans have made it their goal to oppose President Barack Obama at all costs. They do not care about reform. And to be blunt, they do not care about bettering America.
Unless, of course, they are the ones in power to "better America."
Many of us feel relatively confident of Scott Murphy's chances of winning the Congressional seat in NY-20. The numbers seem to stack up pretty well for him, when one examines where the votes are coming from.
The one shot that Tedisco might have is to have a hyperpartisan judge uphold the hundreds and hundreds of ballots his lawyers have speciously challenged.
And in Dutchess County Supreme Court judge James V. Brands, Tedisco may just have found his man...
Details (and what this has to do with pizza) after the jump...
According to the Associated Press, the GOP has approached former New York Governor George Pataki with the idea of running against the winner of the Democratic primary (if there is a primary) in 2010.
The head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee approached former Gov. George Pataki this week about running for the U.S. Senate in 2010, according to a person who spoke to Pataki about the private meeting.
The person confirmed Tuesday's meeting in New York City between Pataki and Sen. John Cornyn, a Texas Republican who heads the party's national senate campaign committee. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because he isn't authorized to comment.
It's obvious that the GOP doesn't have much faith in Rep. Peter King, but I don't think we have much to worry about, anyway. Remember, Pataki left office with a 30 percent approval rating. I think that the Democrats can run a corpse against George Milqetoast Pataki and win.
Last November, I started it. When inquiring about who Alice Kryzan was, I mentioned Kryzan's link to Love Canal long ago. Even The Buffalo Newsacknowledged the fact that Kryzan had been subject to "attacks" from me on the Love Canal issue. While I didn't think they were "attacks," I agree that I was asking those questions long before anyone in the media or in the Republican Party did.
The reason I bring this up is because the Republicans have an ad out hitting Kryzan on Love Canal. The Republicans are clearly desperate since Kryzan provided an answer about her role in representing Hooker Chemical, the company responsible for the pollution at Love Canal.
I don't want to toot my own horn here. But the Republicans are late to the party. Kryzan's answer to that question about Love Canal, as captured by the Buffalo News, was the following:
Negotiating a settlement on behalf of Occidental, "I learned a lot," Kryzan said. "I learned how to listen. It was my first experience dealing with a difficult problem in a highly charged environment."
Kryzan's answer was a respectable one and one that answered the question for me. All I wanted to know was why. Why would she defend a company that caused such great destruction and then tout herself later in her life as an environmental attorney? I felt that her answer was satisfactory. It was an answer to an important question.
The Republicans now want to recycle this attack. Any other time, the Republicans hate recycling. But if they can score cheap political points, it's good enough for them.
I compare this to the Republicans bringing up Bill Ayers again. Barack Obama answered all the necessary questions about Ayers during the primaries when he was questioned by Sen. Hillary Clinton. It should have been a dead issue - even for the Republicans. The same goes for the Love Canal-Kryzan link. Kryzan has answered the questions about that. It should be a dead issue.
As the person who raised these issues last year, the Republicans really need to find something new and original. Love Canal is mine. The questions about it were answered. The issue is done.
At the risk of seeming insensitive to the situation, I'm struck by how the Republican National Convention is a victim of a "perfect storm". Even without the hurricane refocusing attention on Katrina, the GOP faced an uphill battle to make their convention draw for the voters.
The primary election was draining by any measure. The campaign season afterwards was more like a hangover than it was like gaining a second wind. Luckily for everyone except the GOP, the Beijing Olympics took over the 24-hour news cycle for two weeks and gave the viewing public a break from politics just at the point at which the whole circus was becoming a numbing spectacle. Michael Phelps, the Redeem Team, and the controversies of the Games were riveting. A refreshed electorate then turned its attention to the Democratic convention, their appetites whetted by the return of equally refreshed reporters, pundits and talking heads. Four nights of perfectly choreographed momentum culminating in a speech by Barack Obama that left even hardcore conservatives like Pat Buchanan gushing with praise.
Then, the calendar took over. For much of the country, school started. Whether it was colleges and universities all over the country welcoming their student body or the start of high school in many states, voters' took their eyes off of politics to instead scan Kmart and Walmart circulars for dorm supplies and school clothes. And with the start of school comes football. When you realize that many WNYers like me will even sit and watch Delaware play Maryland, you can imagine the higher level of attention paid in the Southeast and Midwest, and anywhere there's even a mid-level local college football team. This past Saturday, high school teams all over WNY were scrimmaging in preparation for the upcoming season. In the South and parts of the Southwest, they were already playing regular season games. Add to this all the other sports that even here in WNY have already played regular season games. Not only does the GOP have to try to match the high standard set by the Democratic convention, they have to do it while Americans have many, many claims on their short attention span and after a long, long....loooooong campaign season.
And now, a hurricane? A hurricane that is centered on the City of New Orleans, the festering reminder of the moment when the Bush Administration and the Republican dominated Congress began their calamitous slide? Even as I type this, CNN is reporting that levees in a Louisiana parish are in danger of collapsing, three years after the natural and governmental disaster that was Katrina. If there's a silver lining in all of this for the GOP, it can't be bigger than a dime.
There was talk even within the Republican party that they faced the chance of historical defeat all along the ballot. The convention was their opportunity to re-brand themselves in an attempt to separate from the handicap of eight years of the outgoing administration. It appears that on top of the widely acknowledged success of the Democratic convention and the mis-scheduling their own convention, the Republicans have to deal with both an American electorate pulled in many directions, and a re-visitation to one of their most damaging domestic failures of the last eight years. If I didn't think it was so important that we change course now, I'd almost feel bad for them.
If you're a Republican woman, who is your idol in politics?
Apparently for Republican vice presidential pick Sarah Palin, she has two: Geraldine Ferraro, who was a 1984 vice presidential candidate, and Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Both, of course, are Democrats. Palin is a Republican.
There was mild applause when Palin mentioned Ferraro and reluctant applause for Clinton. John McCain gave a smirk at the mention of Hillary and gave a brief clap for the mention.
I also noticed while McCain was introducing Palin that there was a woman over McCain's left shoulder on television who was like a little girl at Christmas when it was said that the vice presidential pick was a woman. She was practically in shock and if you watch video of that moment again (at this time, nothing is available) you will see what I'm talking about.
In reviewing the women in Congress, I counted 67 women who are Democrats serving in either house of Congress (56 in the House, 11 in the Senate). Republicans only have 26 women in either house, with 21 of those serving in the House and five in the Senate. So this isn't like the Republicans are the best at getting women into higher office.
(NOTE: Included in that count is Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, who passed away recently. She was still included on the list, so I counted her among the Democratic women in Congress.)
(It is also worth noting that from my home state of New York, there are eight women in Congress - seven in the House and one in the Senate.)
Sarah Palin is an interesting choice as I discussed on my blog, The Albany Project, today. She has very little experience. Two years as governor of Alaska and serving from 1992 to 1996 as a city councilmember for Wasilla, Alaska. She became mayor of Wasilla in 1996.
Wasilla is a small town in Alaska. As of 2000, there were 5,470 people. A 2005 estimate suggests that the population has grown to 8,471. It's not a very big place, but Palin was in charge of it at one time. In fact, that is where most of her political experience is derived.
The reason I bring this up is that I believe this pick does a disservice to women and the cause to get more women into politics. In talking with women here in New York where getting more women elected to state government is an ongoing fight, they want to see the most progressive and most qualified women elected to office. The McCain pick of Palin doesn't give Republican women the most qualified woman (I think Carly Fiorina would have made a better VP choice for McCain, given his weakness on economic issues) on the Republican side nor does it give women in general something to be proud of. She's very inexperienced and unqualified for this post.
Palin invoking Hillary and Ferraro today was an indirect shot at the GOP and herself. The Republicans are not a very diverse group. If you want a Republican, just go around and ask any white male what their party affiliation is. This might explain the reaction of that woman I described above standing behind McCain and expressing shock that McCain had picked a woman. The 26 women on the Republican side also show this lack of diversity when their counterparts on the Democratic side have two-and-a-half times as many women in Congress than they do.
So why is Palin mentioning Hillary and Ferraro a shot at herself? The same women who supported Hillary and Ferraro would never dream of supporting a McCain-Palin ticket. Palin is a pro-lifer, pro-gun, a believer in Creationism and is against gay marriage. She also is in favor of the death penalty. In other words, Palin appeals to that same conservative Republican base that sums up the Republican base best: White males. She is not going to have any sort of appeal to women on the Democratic side of the aisle or give McCain a chance at stealing Hillary supporters away from Barack Obama. At least, not with those five issues in mind.
I believe Palin's pick was for two reasons:
(1) Age. Today McCain turns 72. What better way to distract the media from your 72nd birthday than by picking your vice president who just happens to be 28 years younger than you are. In thinking about this, I can't think of any other reason why they would pick this day - the slowest news day of the week, a Friday - to announce McCain's VP pick. Palin has probably been in the cards for at least a week or so and I also would think Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was as well. McCain needed someone younger. He got that with the 44 year old Palin.
(2) Conservative bona fides. Everyone knows McCain has a problem with social conservatives. Picking Palin gives him someone who is the model social conservative. Anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage, as well as pro-death penalty, pro gun and a supporter of Creationism.
In any event, the vice presidential debate between our man Joe Biden and Palin will be a fun one to watch. A guy with experience and foreign policy knowledge in his back pocket against a woman who has ran Alaska for two years and prior to that ran a small village, both as mayor and as a city councilmember.
As the saying goes, the Republicans are bringing a knife to a gunfight.
Palin is a social conservative who is strongly opposed to abortion and same sex marriage. In addition, she is pro-gun and wildly popular in Alaska.
In Palin, McCain has chosen someone with no experience on the national stage and no foreign policy experience. But she is a reformer, popular with conservatives and is considered tough enough to deal with what may come.
In the Vice Presidential debate, however, she will go up against Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who has personal relationships with heads of state and other world leaders.
In other words, in the vice presidential debate Biden wipes the floor with her.
So who is Sarah Palin? Good question:
Palin is the first woman governor of Alaska, elected in 2006. She was also the youngest ever elected at the age of 42. She is the mother of five children, the youngest of whom was born in April and has Down Syndrome. She ran on a clean government platform in '06 to defeat the incumbent Republican Governor Frank Murkowski.
She's been governor of Alaska for two years and served on the Wasilla City Council from 1992 to 1996 and became mayor of Wasilla in 1996. She also served as Ethics Commissioner for the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission from 2003-04.
By the way, Wasilla has a population of about 5,400. That's smaller than the village I'm living in now.
This certainly is an "outside the Beltway" pick. Palin has no foreign policy experience. She is younger than Barack Obama (Obama is 47, Palin is 44). She has served only two years as governor of Alaska and before that served as a city councilmember and mayor of a village that would be, if it was in my home county of Orleans, the third largest village in this county.
This is an interesting pick. We'll have to see later on what McCain was going for with this one.
CapCon is reporting that Bruno is dodging questions on whether he is going to run for his Senate seat again this year:
When asked whether he would run for re-election this fall, Bruno responded:
"I am where I am today. Here I am with you, having this delightful conversation and we'll see what life looks like."
When asked if he still enjoyed working in the legislature, Bruno said:
"It's more fun than it was six months ago. I have better feelings about it," he said. "But, I'll tell you, being in government these days, it's a pretty heavy burden, and it takes a toll too."
This is a very interesting statement at this time. After Bruno outlasted his arch-nemesis Spitzer in state government, one would think he would want to stay for a while.
This is complete congecture on my part, but I can only think of 2 motives for Joe not to seek his seat again. One is that he knows the Democrats are going to take the senate and he wants to avoid the ugly leadership fight that will cannibalize the new GOP senate minority caucus in January. The other is that he is depressed after losing his wife recently and wants to retire.
I hope it's the former, but either way, a Bruno retirement adds another district to our ever-expanding map of possible takeovers.
UPDATE: Robina points out in the comments that maybe Bruno also might see himself soon landing in jail as per that federal investigation (how could I forget that???)
The Republicans in this state make a point of always linking Democrats with New York City or downstate when campaigning for seats upstate. Even when elected, representatives try to say that problems in Albany are because of the downstate Democrats. Thus, if you want someone to blame for the downstate-upstate divide, blame the Republicans.
Erie County businessman Christopher Lee was endorsed by all seven counties on the Republican side and another businessman, Rick Lewis, has received backing from Conservative Party leaders which could set off a big primary between at least two candidates plus David Bellavia, an Iraq war veteran.
Out of the three, Bellavia is by far the most conservative. His stances are, at times, far right and neo-conservative. He is a passionate supporter of the war and believes that the Surge is working.
Lee and Lewis bring that business-style to the race, which is fine, but not everyone is a millionaire businessman from Erie County or from this district for that matter.
I can see a battle brewing between these three. Unless something changes, we will see a primary on the Republican side too.
If anyone thought the Repubicans were going to have an easy time picking their candidate for the 26th congressional district they were sadly mistaken.
David Bellavia is already declared, but has not enjoyed support like some of the other candidates. Christopher Lee, a Buffalo area businessman, is the current frontrunner but he may also face a tough fight for the nomination, according to the Buffalo News:
Talking Phone Book President Rick Lewis offers the main opposition to Lee in an effort strongly backed by County Executive Chris Collins. Lewis said Tuesday he has the support of Erie County Republican Chairman James P. Domagalski and his Niagara County counterpart, Henry F. Wojtaszek.
And in what could loom as a major development, Erie County Conservative Party Chairman Ralph C. Lorigo said late Tuesday he is "moving toward" supporting Lewis.
"Nothing is final, because I need to talk to some more people," Lorigo said. "But I am moving in that direction."
If Lorigo stays on that course, observers say that could dramatically strengthen the Lewis case as Republicans strive to avoid dividing their vote among three candidates in the November general election, with Lee potentially on the GOP line, Lewis on the Conservative line and a Democrat.
"The Conservative Party, to me, could possibly have an influence in that situation," Lorigo said.
So far, Lee has received a public endorsement from Monroe County Republican chair Steve Minarik and he has the backing of Erie County Executive Chris Collins.
But Lewis says he has the support of the Erie and Niagara GOP heads (Domagalski and Wojtaszek) which would create a divide in this race. And with the Conservative Party saying they support Lewis, this could be headed to a very interesting primary.
The aforementioned Bellavia had this to say about the process thus far:
"There have been chairmen in this process who have not acted in good faith," Bellavia said Tuesday. "I have jumped through every hoop, and the bar has been moved multiple times."
I don't know who to blame more - The GOP heads or Bellavia. The GOP heads have, by all accounts, given every candidate a shot. But Bellavia has shown that he would rather introduce John McCain in Washington D.C. than focus on this district.
That said, I am glad to see that the GOP seems to be headed for a primary in September as well. That will level the playing field for our side, considering our primary situation.
It's no secret that Republicans are in trouble again this year. After victories in 2006, Republicans in congressional seats throughout New York are in trouble.
Heading into this election cycle, Republican leaders in Washington identified dozens of Congressional seats they believed they could pick up in November's election - some where Democrats narrowly won a first term in 2006, and others where Democrats represent Republican-leaning districts.
But that strategy appears to have run into complications, both in the New York region and in some other parts of the country, as many potential Republican candidates - including public officials and wealthy entrepreneurs - have stayed on the sidelines, despite direct appeals from party leaders.
In some cases, potential candidates see a tough climate for Republicans, largely because of a troubled economy and a protracted war, according to some Republicans.
Some have even started races, only to abandon the effort.
- Here's another example, from this state NY Times piece.
Republicans have also suffered a significant setback in their efforts to defeat Representative John Hall, a freshman Democrat who narrowly won his seat in the suburbs north of New York City in 2006.
At one point, Republican Party leaders had managed to recruit a millionaire who was expected to pour his own money into the race, causing alarm among Democrats. But the candidate, Andrew M. Saul, a vice chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, abruptly quit the race, citing personal reasons. Now, Mr. Hall is running virtually unopposed.
The Republicans are in some trouble this year. They are targeting three freshmen incumbents and hoping to keep these upstate seats that they have had a choke-hold on for years now. That, in itself, is a daunting task. I have stated before that having 26 of the 29 congressional seats after this election is possible. And depending on what happens in NY-13 and NY-23, we could come out with 27 or even 28, although that is a huge stretch at this point.
I probably missed some there, but those were the ones that I either saw or heard their name called. Was it a big deal that they showed up to this conference? Maybe to some. To me, it wasn't. They have had how many months to get this budget done and it's not done? The Senate GOP is making political hay out of this. It's a pointless argument they are trying to make.
Here is what Sen. Martin Golden said.
"It's really sad," Golden said. "They just don't get it. Even though (former Gov. Eliot) Spitzer fell three weeks ago, they put politics ahead of policy. It's time to put that garbage behind us."
Politics ahead of policy? One assemblyman I know of was WORKING in his hotel room on budget issues in between attending meals and sessions. So does that mean he was putting policy ahead of politics? Probably not in GOP eyes.
Michael B. Powers, one of the top names in the Republican mix to succeed the retiring Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, said today he will not run for the seat.
Powers, a partner in the Phillips Lytle law firm and vice chairman of the Erie County Republican Committee, said he feels he can prove just as effective by continuing his involvement in several community-based projects.
"I thought that what I'm doing now will make an impact, and I could not walk away from those responsibilities," he said.
The Republican chairs throughout the district will meet today to discuss the race. One thing to note is that, at least in the Buffalo media, Iraq war veteran David Bellavia has been largely ignored when discussing the NY-26 race. I find this surprising. According to the above Buffalo News article, the GOP is looking for someone like Erie County Executive Chris Collins. That doesn't mean Collins is the guy, but they do want someone LIKE Collins to run.
UPDATE: Another possible Republican candidate said it is "highly unlikely" he will run. Jordan Levy, chairman of the Erie Canal Harbor Development Corporation, probably won't run for the seat, although he won't rule it out completely.
Assemblyman James P. Hayes -- thought to be one of the major competitors in the scramble to fill the seat of retiring Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds -- said today he will not run.
"As I have said many times, my work in the Assembly, as the ranking member of the Ways and Means Committee and representing the people of Amherst and Niagara County, is both important and personally satisfying, and so today I am announcing that I will not be a candidate for Congress this year," he said.
"I believe I can best serve the people of our community by staying at my post in the Legislature at this critical juncture, and continuing the fight for lower taxes and for government and budget reform," he said.
When Sen. George Maziarz announced yesterday that he would not run for Congress, the likelihood of a primary increased. With Hayes not entering, the probability of a primary just skyrocketed. Hayes and Maziarz were the top two contenders for this seat and they both don't want it. That will leave a crowded field jockeying for position.
So far, all of the following names have been tossed around as possible candidates on the GOP side:
- Sen. George Maziarz, who could declare his candidacy early next week and who is (I would argue) the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
- Assemblyman Jim Hayes is also seriously considering a run given his location (Amherst in Erie County). Hayes was widely considered the top contender for the Republican nod in the 61st Senate District race after Sen. Mary Lou Rath announced her retirement.
- Nick Sinatra, who is a native of Western New York and has several Republican connections, is currently the associate political director at the White House.
- David Bellavia, an Iraq War veteran and someone I have interviewed on my radio show just four months ago. Bellavia would be an interesting choice, but considered a long shot because he is from Genesee County.
- Other names include: Michael B. Powers, a Buffalo-area attorney, Assemblyman Steve Hawley, former Assembly Minority Leader Charlie Nesbitt and former Buffalo Bills quarterback Jim Kelly, who once considered a run against Congresswoman Louise Slaughter and who resides in the 26th district (Wyoming County, I believe).
There seems to be one common denominator here. That is, if Maziarz runs, it seems everyone else would stay out of the race. But if he doesn't run, which is a possibility, that could set off a primary battle. Hayes would be the next in line, but he has his weaknesses. Yes, he could carry Amherst but what about Monroe and Niagara counties? Those are well populated areas and Hayes would have to work VERY hard for votes there. So it could be in the cards that someone challenges Hayes.
But if Maziarz enters, he would be the guy. This is the race that Maziarz has been looking forward to for a long time. But he has to decide whether or not he should leave his Senate seat, which could be very vulnerable and be a seat that the Democrats could target in November.
The National Republican Congressional Committee acknowledged today that former treasurer Christopher Ward transferred money from NRCC accounts to his own bank accounts, among other findings.
National Republican Congressional Committee officials acknowledged publicly today that they have found discrepancies in their books of more than a million dollars and evidence that the NRCC's former treasurer, Christopher Ward, made "several hundred thousand dollars" worth of unauthorized wire transfers out of the committee that appear to have ended up in Ward's own bank accounts.
The NRCC launched an internal probe and contacted the FBI in January after learning that Ward "apparently fabricated and submitted 2006 financial statements to the NRCC's bank," according to a memo issued by the committee today. Some details of the probe have been reported previously, but today's memo and press briefing by a lawyer retained by the committee marked the fullest public accounting so far of the unfolding scandal.
...
The NRCC has found that the amount of cash on hand it reported to the Federal Election Commission at the end of 2006 was approximately $990,000 more than the committee actually had in the bank. The total the NRCC reported in the bank to the FEC as of Jan. 31, 2008, was $740,000 more than the actual amount, and the committee has discovered that it owes $200,000 more on its outstanding line of credit than it has reported to the FEC.
A couple of things here. First, Ward robbed them blind. The amounts being discussed here are enormous. Also, you would think that the leaders of this committee (Tom Reynolds, anyone?) would know if these amounts of money were being ripped off.
Long Island congressman Steve Israel, who recruits House candidates for the Democrats, claimed all six GOP seats are in play, though he conceded they have yet to find a candidate to challenge Rep. Peter King, also of Long Island.
"We believe that we're positioned to take between four and six of them," said Israel.
I agree. King is the toughest Republican of the batch, in my view. But after that, you're looking at a weak bunch. Vito Fossella of NY-13 is definitely a target. The race is shaping up to be a good one, with Steve Harrison the top contender thus far.
You also have NY-23 where Rep. John McHugh has a few challengers lining up, although some question how serious these challengers are. We'll see how it plays out.
But then there's the three marquee upstate races featuring Republicans Tom Reynolds and Randy Kuhl, as well as an open seat in NY-25 vacated by Rep. Jim Walsh.
NY-26 Democratic candidate Jon Powers has been working in NY-26 for over nine months now, and Alice Kryzan and Jack Davis are in the running for the seat as well.
NY-29 Democratic candidate Eric Massa and NY-25 Democratic candidate Dan Maffei won't face primary challenges and are the apparent frontrunners in their respective races.
My prediction: I think we can win NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29. I don't want to say NY-25 is a lock with Maffei, but it's pretty close. The Republicans can't find anyone to run, even though there are names being tossed around. NY-29 features Massa and Kuhl in a rematch of 2006. Massa has been beating Kuhl in the fundraising game and Kuhl was rumored to be contemplating retirement before announcing this week that he will be running again.
Then there's NY-26, my district. Call me bias if you want, but Powers has the best chance to win this race. This race, no matter what Jack Davis wants to say about his bankroll, isn't about how much money you have. Reynolds raised over $4 million in 2006 and spent over $5 million in the last faceoff with Davis. The 2006 race was one that Davis, again, tried to make about money and he failed. He failed to talk about issues or address key issues (i.e. Mark Foley Scandal) and he lost because of it.
In the end, we currently hold 23 of the 29 seats. By November, I think we can hold 26 for sure, maybe more. We'll see, especially with races like NY-23 and NY-13.
