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This belongs to you. Take it back...
GOTV 
Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 16:19:03 PM EDT
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There are two weekends between now and E-Day and your help is needed now more than ever. below the fold, you'll find plenty of opportunities to get involved with races from the top of the ticket on down and from one end of the state to the other. You'll also find contact info for all of the campaigns.
This is it, folks. It's crunch time. If you are at all able to get involved with one or more of these campaigns, please, please do so. Picking up a walk list or making some phone calls can make a world of difference.
It's now or never. Let's hit the streets.
(If I am missing a race you think we should have listed here also, please feel free to drop me a line.)
The list is in the extended entry.
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There's More...
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Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 09:04:33 AM EDT
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One of the most interesting questions in all of politics is how much different forms of get-out-the-vote efforts actually succeed in getting out the vote. The only thing that seems to be known for sure is that knocking on doors works: typically about 12 face-to-face voter contacts will generate one new vote for your candidate. To break that down further, here's Sean Quinn of 538:
Let's do a little math. 12 face-to-face contacts is one new voter who would not have otherwise voted that you personally generated. You just doubled your own vote by speaking at the door to twelve voters. Of course, then it comes down to contact rate -- how often is the person home that you're trying to reach. A very low contact rate is probably 10%, and that happens. A very high contact rate can be 50%. Average is in the 25% ballpark. On average, you'd have to knock on 48 doors to generate 12 face-to-face contacts and one additional vote. 48 doors is a pretty standard, approximate walk list.
If a typical volunteer ends up doing one shift going door-to-door (obviously some will do many more, but some probably don't do any at all), that means you might expect about one vote per volunteer to be gained in this way.
Is that a lot or a little? Depends on how you look at it. In a Congressional race where you are behind by 30,000 votes, it doesn't help very much. In a race decided by a few thousand votes -- as NY-25, NY-26, and NY-29 were last time -- it can swing the election.
One other number to keep an eye on: the Obama campaign plans to have six million volunteers working between now and the election (McCain has a fraction of the that). If that translates into 6 million extra votes...
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Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 18:08:26 PM EST
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Many folks have emailed to ask if I will be liveblogging the results from today's special election in the 48th. My answer? Duh! Of course I am, silly. I mean, how could I not do so after our friends at Rochester Turning said that we've "been all over this race like a freakin' horde of locusts"?
I'll be here liveblogging as long as it takes, even if this thing goes really late, a distinct possibility. I hope you'll be here as well. I've got a good feeling about this one.
Less than three hours to go...
G-O-T-V.
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Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 17:21:33 PM EST
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Want to know the surest sign that we've got an excellent chance at winning tonight? I guess you could point to the unnamed GOP Senate staffer talking about how "people are worried", but for my money, there's no better indicator than Uncle Joe himself whining about "dirty tricks" this afternoon.
Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno said he thinks some records are being set for bad form in governing and elections under Gov. Eliot Spitzer's tenure.
Talking to reporters in The Egg, Bruno looked back over 32 years in office and said unfair tactics are spilling into the 48th Senate District race: "I've been in this business a long, long time. I have never experienced the dirty tricks, the low
handed tactics that have taken place politically since we've had this administration on the second floor . . . dirty tricks, scandalous behavior, some of what's gone on out there in that district in the last couple of days really is about as dishonest as anything can be."
What is he talking about?
Pressed, he would not provide specifics.
Uncle Joe is freaking out. He knows they're in trouble up in the 48th, if not now statewide. Hell, the fact that this even a competitive race shows that his majority is certainly doomed. He knows it and so does everybody else.
This ain't Joe's first rodeo and if anyone knows something about dirty tricks, it's Bruno. I was on the ground in SD-7 last year. I saw them up close. So, spare me the faux outrage, Uncle Joe. If anything, knowing that the possibility of losing yet another seat is very, very real, he may even be prepping the battlefield for some useless legal wrangling to tie this thing up for as long as he can. Who knows? Maybe he's just a grumpy old prick who doesn't like to lose.
He's got good reason to be angry as well. He got hosed by the one note clowns he sent up there to run young Will's campaign. I guess he figured he could use this one to train up some B-teamers for November because this was a race they should be winning in a walk and he knows he's going to be playing defense on several fronts this fall. Instead, the Barclay campaign stumbled pretty hard out of the gate and ran an ugly campaign that flat out turned off many folks who probably would have lined up behind "Doug's boy" without much persuasion. They've never fully recovered. He had to send Tom Libous up there to just flat out lie to folks with BS like this:
"they'll close their ATV trails, they'll close their snowmobile trails."
Um, what?
So, I understand why Uncle Joe is so cranky. He's in deep doo doo in the North Country. He picked a lame candidate and an even worse crew to run him. He knows if he loses this one, he and his majority are for all intents and purposes done.
The fact that he, a brawler from waaaay back, is whining about "dirty tricks" on E-Day should tell you volumes about how this evening just might play out.
Three and a half hours to go...
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Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 14:53:33 PM EST
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It looks as if the voters of the 48th are living up to their hardy reputation and showing up at the polls despite the weather. WWNY is reporting that Turnout is so far "Good to fairly significant" and the prediction by local officials that as many as 30% of eligible voters may have already cast ballots today.
Voting in the 48th Senate District was described as good to fairly significant Tuesday afternoon.
The race pits Democrat Darrel Aubertine against Republican Will Barclay.
Jefferson County Board of Elections Deputy Commissioner Sean Hennessey estimated about 30 percent of eligible voters headed to the polls as of mid-afternoon.
He said some polling places have seen "fairly significant turnout".
In St. Lawrence County, Board of Elections Deputy Commissioner Jennie Morrill described voter turnout as "good".
She said polling places in Waddington and Ogdensburg were especially busy.
Officials in Oswego County also said voter turnout appeared to be "good".
I'm very pleased to hear that polling places in Ogdensburg and Waddington are "especially busy."
6 Hours to go...
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Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 14:35:24 PM EST
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The Aubertine campaign just blasted this to their list:
Dear Friends and Neighbors,
Today I ask for your help.
We are involved in a tight, tough battle that probably feels to you like it has gone on for too long. This race has been about a number of issues and you've seen some tough tactics.
I write today to remind you what this election is really about. It is about farmers and carpenters; bus drivers and teachers; small business people and moms and dads. It's about us.
And that's why I ask you to go vote, and to get as many people to the polls as you can. Please ask your friends and relatives to join you, and ask them to ask others.
The weather isn't perfect, and I appreciate how much effort is involved. Thank you for your continued support.
With appreciation and hope for the future and for putting government in our hands.
-Darrel Aubertine
G-O-T-V.
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Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 10:02:10 AM EST
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Aside from, ya know, a federal grand jury, Joe Bruno's fate now rests, at least in part, in the hands of good old Mother Nature. The forecast calls for more snow earlier in Oswego County in the southern part of the district, Barclay's GOP stronghold. Jefferson and St Lawrence counties, where Aubertine's base is and where he is polling far ahead of Barclay, are expected to get it slightly later and perhaps a bit lighter, especially the northern end of St Lawrence.
What does all this mean? It means we need to get our folks to the polls. Rain, sleet or snow. Period. This one is going to be close.
G-O-T-V.
UPDATE: Heh. Azi owes me a coke.
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Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 06:00:00 AM EST
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G-O-T-V!
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Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 12:02:59 PM EST
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The weather is sure to be a factor tomorrow in the 48th. The National Weather Service has issued a "winter storm watch" for pretty much the entire district, predicting significant snowfall beginning midday.
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1026 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SNOW ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE AT VARYING RATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG DURATION EVENT WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 12 INCH RANGE.
This is going to make GOTV all the more important. If you are in the district, by all means vote early and then do whatever you can to help get more folks to the polls. It's all hands on deck time and this one is going to be won by the campaign that can get their folks through the muck and to the polls.
On the web: Darrel Aubertine for State Senate.
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