So it looks like we have some time to kill before the Senate finally gets around to voting on marriage equality sometime late tonight. This gives us plenty of time to speculate wildly about how this might go down.
Earlier this evening, Senator Lanza of Staten Island revealed that he would be voting against the bill. This is tough news for those of us who really want to this bill to pass. Lanza had been one of the dwindling number of true "undecided" votes and many folks, myself included, had hoped that he might be the one to push this one over the top. Alas, that is not to be.
That really only leaves two publicly "undecideds" left, Saland of SD-41 up in the Hudson Valley and Grisanti the frosh from SD-60 in Buffalo.
Saland is and always has been something of a cipher on this issue, though he and the rest of the GOP caucus voted against the bill the last time it came up back in late 2009. Saland has that district pretty wired for himself and has easily fought off challenger after challenger for the last few cycles. That said, it's not entirely certain that he even runs again. In fact, the rumor that he will retire has been going around since at least 2007. The story I've heard many times is that Joe Bruno begged him to stay on at least one more cycle back about that time. He's old, cranky and I get the impression that he doesn't much like the Senate nor the other senators all that much. If he really is calling it quits this time, he may just do the right thing on the way out the door.
Or maybe he won't. He's really kind of a sterotypical grumpy old man and he may decide to stick it to the gays anyway. Guess we'll know soon enough.
What's more interesting, to me anyway, is what happens with Grisanti. As you may recall, Grisanti very narrowly defeated incumbent Dem Antoine Thompson in a drawn affair that lasted months past election day. Now, Thompson was seen (rightly, IMHO) by many folks in that pretty blue district as being something of an ineffectual dolt, a not very bright guy in way over his head.
Grisanti was able to knock off a sitting Dem senator in a fairly deep blue district in a GOP wave year. Can he repeat that feat in 2012?
Maybe. Maybe not.
I think it's safe to say that there are precious few senators with more riding on tonight's vote than Grisanti. He's a former Dem, but he's on the wrong team for SD-60. Yes, he's Italian and that helps with many folks there, but he's also going to be running as a Republican in a presidential year with Obama at the top of the ticket in a largely urban district.
Does he vote against equality and risk pissing off a good portion of the Democrats that he has to win over to win reelection? Or does he piss off Mike Long and make the job of squeaking by a second time all that much harder? Does he hope that the white ethnic Catholic vote bails him out of a "nay" vote? Or does he hope those same folks have moved past this issue already?
Grisanti says we'll learn his vote tonight from the floor of the Senate.
There will plenty of very interested parties paying very close attention when the freshman from Buffalo stands up to explain his vote.
Then there are the wildcards. The names I hear most often that could possibly move from no to yes are Hannon and Fuschillo. Fuschillo has ambitions beyond the senate, statewide ambitions, and Hannon came very, very close to losing his seat in 2008 to a newcomer. Hannon's district ain't what it used to be, though I'm sure his district is at the top of the "must gerrymander" list for the Senate GOP.
Stranger things have happened.
Got any other wild speculation about the vote? Let us know in the comments.
Anyone who has followed Greg Ball over the years probably saw this coming. Ball, who has spent the last 10 days or so doing everything he possibly can to make the marriage equality fight in Albany all about himself, even going so far as to cynically troll for twitter followers by polling their opinions on the matter (who else's civil rights should I poll my twitter followers about today?), is apparently still going to vote "no" on the bill, even after putting himself square in the middle of trying to get exemptions (that largely already exist) for religious institutions.
Why? Because Greg Ball is a preening diva prick that doesn't give a rat's ass about anyone but Greg Ball. He's kind of always been that way. The only thing missing (so far, that is) from his little dog and pony show has been a fundraising pitch, fundraising being the only thing in the entire world he enjoys more than being the center of attention. If only he could have found a way to get the gays on horseback...
Like I said, he's an asshole.
That said, he believes that the bill will pass anyway and I think he's probably right. That statement means that the bill will almost certainly get a vote this evening. If it does, look for Saland, Lanza, Grisanti or Hannon - or some combination of all of them - to push this one over the top.
Municipal clerks in New York may refuse to issue marriage licenses to gay couples or refuse to marry them, whether or not additional "carve out" provisions are inserted into the upcoming Marriage Equality bill.
Under proposed language specified by GOP State Senator Greg Ball of Putnam County, clerks and other municipal officials can hide behind a "religious protections" clause if they find gay marriage an affront to their beliefs.
The addendums that Ball wants to insert in the bill are unclear and ambiguous, perhaps purposely so. They could provide a loophole for mayors, supervisors, clerks, and county executives to act in contempt of their sworn duties, and keep gay marriage in the courts for years to come.
And more evidence that Maybe Dean Skelos just might be being honest this time about having a conscience vote on marriage equality. Seems they've been polling battleground districts and hating on the gheys just isn't as popular as it once was.
The New York Post reports today that a surprising slew of Republicans, all of whom voted to defeat a same-sex marriage bill in 2009, are ready to vote "yes" this time around. These senators include are Kemp Hannon of Nassau County, Charles Fuscillo of Suffolk County, Betty Little of Glens Falls, Andrew Lanza of Staten Island, Greg Ball of Putnam County, James Alesi of Rochester, and Roy McDonald of Rensselaer County.
According to the Post, Republicans have been conducting secret polls showing majority support for gay marriage in key swing districts, causing the GOP to be concerned that voting down marriage equality this year would cause them to lose control of the Senate next year to Democrats.
....
Republicans are worried about passing gay marriage by a single vote, leaving one of their members to be viewed as the decisive figure, according to the Times.
And Senate majority leader, Dean G. Skelos, who previously said he'd let the vote to come to the floor-- even though he would vote "no"-- now says he will have to discuss the issue with his caucus before allowing the vote.
The strongest force against gay marriage has been the state Conservative Party, who says it will deny political support to any Republican who backs gay marriage.
Looks like this train just might be (finally!) leaving the station.
Remember this? Yeah, that's a signed pledge by the esteemed State Senator (then-candidate) Greg Ball wherein he promises to support an "independent nonpartisan redistricting commission." He may be crazy, but he had enough rational self-interest to know that the voters in his district thought this was important, and with a 2010 victory margin of only a few hundred votes, he doesn't exactly have the wiggle-room to go about breaking promises and showing his voters he is willing to lie to their faces if it gets him elected.
So being a Republican and all, of course that promise is being broken and he is revealing he has lied to the voters in his district last year and is no longer supporting an independent nonpartisan redistricting commission.
RALLY AND CANVASS TO END GERRYMANDERING -- GREG BALL EDITION
Where : Pugsley Park in Peekskill, Main Street btw N. Division St. and N. James St. 12PM
Free buses from W. 33rd Street, between 7th and 8th Avenues at 10AM
When : Saturday, 2011/05/14 through 2011/05/14
You can RSVP at the link and ride up to Westchester on a comfy, New Roosevelt Institute-chartered bus to let the crazy person now that people are indeed paying attention to his actions when they fail to live up to his own words.
He has about $400 in the bank and is in debt $22,000. The state republican party is spending more money on his campaign, to support a candidate who can't make a budget and stick to it.
Ball loves spending taxpayers money to advance his image and candidacy, even outside is Assembly district. And he claims he can fix Albany. Right!
If any local race in New York was going to get really strange, it figured to be one involving Greg Ball, a state assemblyman running for the State Senate.
During his primary race, opponents said he was, essentially, unfit to hold office. "Assemblyman Greg Ball has a 'pattern of sexual misconduct towards women,' " went one statement. "The residents of Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester Counties are tired of the distractions, tired of the conspiracy theories and tired of all of the excuses. You can't take anything Greg Ball says seriously," went another.
And those were from his fellow Republicans, specifically the State Senate Republican Campaign Committee, which backed his opponent in the primary for the open seat in the 40th State Senate District. Mr. Ball won. Now, with perhaps control of the State Senate and redistricting in the balance, party leaders are backing Mr. Ball.
And then there are the Democrats.
"You don't find anyone in the Assembly minority sorry that the guy is leaving, and you won't find anyone in the Senate happy he could become a member," said Senator Diane J. Savino. "There's not a lot that Democrats and Republicans agree on in Albany, but this is one where we totally agree: This guy doesn't deserve to be in public office."
snip
Mr. Ball, who was Tea Party before Tea Party was cool, is like a more toned-down version of Carl P. Paladino, smart, ambitious, attractive and a heat-seeking missile for controversy. He rose to prominence as the loudest local voice against illegal immigration and has been accused of using his polo charity, billed as a way to aid minority youth, to help finance his first campaign. Then there was the still-unexplained incident in which he reported a dead goat on his property, with a note around its neck alluding to a Hispanic gang not known to be in the area.
AND he has been dogged by personal issues involving women: a 2003 temporary protection order taken out by a former girlfriend he was accused of stalking; a barroom complaint in Albany by a server who said he had groped her; a sexual harassment allegation (eventually dismissed) in the Legislature. He says the first was in the distant past, a mutual disagreement; and the other two complaints were politically motivated and without basis.
But here's the real kicker:
In a race viewed as almost deadlocked, gender issues have become the main line of attack by his Democratic opponent, Michael B. Kaplowitz. He ran an ad citing the former girlfriend's complaint. Female supporters of Mr. Kaplowitz held a news conference on Wednesday to criticize Mr. Ball's conduct and his voting record on women's issues.
In response, Mr. Ball ran an ad of his own in which a woman identified as his former girlfriend defended him forcefully. It turns out she wasn't that former girlfriend, but Lauren Pistone, a Republican political consultant and Mr. Ball's finance director when he considered a run for Congress. She also defended Mr. Ball in July when similar issues arose.
The polite term for that is LYING. There's just no other way to put it.
So Greg Ball's latest brilliant campaign idea was- I kid you not- to have a "dog" rally to protest Mike Kaplowitz having nothing to do with a bill Ball introduced in the Assembly. But the problem is that the bill referenced has nothing to do with dogs, and is actually outlawing exotic game meat like gorillas and elephants, with which the Hudson Valley is clearly overflowing. Also note that Kaplowitz neither voted on this bill nor publicly opposed it. But not that reality ever maters to someone like Ball. And this is apparently what Greg Ball thinks is a pressing issue in the district. However, like the rest of Ball's campaign stunts, no rally was to be had, as this video shows:
So the voters in SD-40 have a choice between a guy who believes the biggest issue in his district is nonexistent opposition to a ban on game meat or a guy who cares about property taxes and cleaning up Albany. I wonder which is the better choice.
We all know that Greg Ball has a whole hell of a lot of problems with women and Hudson Valley voters are about to get a stark reminder of this. The video below has to be one of the most devastating, powerful, and effective campaign videos I've seen this cycle in a State Senate race. Mike Kaplowitz's campaign is out with a new ad that hammers Greg Ball for his putrid record on women's rights. He effectively paints Ball as someone with a deep-seeded problem with women in both his personal and professional conduct. Check it out, and you can read a transcript of the video over the fold.
A new poll out shows the State Senate race for the 40th district too close to call.
The numbers from Siena College show Assemblyman Greg Ball (R-Patterson) with a 1-point lead over Westchester County Legislator Mike Kaplowitz (D-Somers), 45-44 percent. Twelve percent are undecided. The lead, however, is within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus 4.5 percent. The poll was conducted from Sept. 28 to 30.
The poll also shows notable differences by region. Westchester voters back Kaplowitz 49-41 percent, while Putnam and Dutchess voters - placed into one category - back Ball 51-36 percent.
It doesn't take a genius to tell that Kap is going to have to turn out his Westchester base in order to win this race, which means there is a great opportunity for NYC-based activists to help Senate Dems right next door. With Stach's seat looking like a GOP pickup, Dave Mejias' implosion, and Tony Avella trailing in recent polls, this might be our best opportunity to pick up an insurance seat in case Aubertine or Valesky wobble upstate and retain a 31-31 tie that Duffy would swing in our favor come January.
Gotta love crazy person Greg Ball. This time he stood up the Kaplowitz team for a standard debate negotiation meeting. From their press release:
(Carmel, NY) - Where did the Ball bounce off to?
Last week, Mike Kaplowitz sent a brief letter urging Assemblyman Greg Ball to come forth and participate
in debate negotiations for the additional seven debates he agreed to participate in, as his "schedule allows."
Kaplowitz suggested that the two campaigns meet at noon today at the Carmel Diner, on 67 Gleneida
Avenue in Carmel. The Kaplowitz campaign showed up - on time -- with proposed formats, dates, and
locations for the debates. Even with everything easily sketched out for him, Assemblyman Ball and his
campaign of distortions failed to show.
"This just shows why it's hard for voters to trust anything Assemblyman Ball says. If he didn't want to
debate, he shouldn't have accepted our challenge in the first place," said Josh Luger, Kaplowitz For Senate
spokesman. "It's about time Assemblyman Ball starts setting aside some time for a real discussion on the
very serious issues facing the Hudson Valley."
No doubt, there will be a litany of excuses to voters and the media as to why:
"It was the lunch hour, and I don't really like the Carmel Diner - the French fries are mushy."
"It was a weekday. I only work part-time."
"I thought I would give myself the day off. I've been hard at work not passing property tax relief or
creating jobs."
"The dog ate my Google print out of the directions."
"Sen. Tom Libous called and I needed to run to a meeting with the rest of the Albany Insiders."
Here is a pic of the Kaplowitz staffer sitting by his lonesome after making the mistake of assuming the Ball campaign would be responsible enough to at least have a conversation about having a debate.
If there was ever any doubt that Greg Ball is a certified unstable moron who exemplifies everything that is wrong with the teabagging right, those doubts have been assuaged yet again. The voters of the 40th district deserve a debate where they can evaluate their candidates, and lunatic Greg Ball has just spat in their face. Let's make sure he never gets to sully our Senate with his teabag craziness.
Mike Kaplowitz's campaign has just launched the Ball Files, in order to publicize just how crazy Greg Ball is:
Welcome to the inaugural edition of The Ball Files, a blog devoted to chronicling the fibs, the distortions and the hypocrisy of Assemblyman Greg Ball.
There are a lot of things the people of Westchester, Dutchess, and Putnam counties deserve to know about Assemblyman Ball.
Like for instance, why for the past four years Assemblyman Ball has accomplished virtually nothing while in Albany? Or why he voted for the biggest tax increase in the history of New York and then turned around and billed hardworking families for $675,000 in office expenses and another $96,000 in political mailers?
Assemblyman Ball has a knack for weaseling out of explaining his record, but this blog will serve to fill in those gaps. We will make sure that the voters of Westchester, Dutchess and Putnam know Assemblyman Greg Ball's record of fibs, distortions and hypocrisy.
First crazy person Greg Ball refused to debate his GOP primary opponent. Now, he is hiding out in some cave because he's afraid that Mike Kaplowitz might remind him to his face that he failed to pass a single bill in 4 years in the Assembly. But I guess I can't blame him too much- if you were a staffer for a teabagging lunatic of Ball's ilk, wouldn't you want to avoid debates at all costs?
In our ongoing series of interviews of Democratic State Senate challengers, please see my interview with Mike Kaplowitz, running to fill the open seat in the 40th Senate District. Enjoy!
(and just for the record, that makes 5 out of 5 Senate candidates interviewed by me who are on the record opposing Pedro as majority leader)
Why are you running for the 40th Senate District and why do you think voters should send you to Albany rather than Greg Ball or Mary Beth Murphy?
I'm running for State Senate because New York State and our local governments are in a financial emergency and I can help make New York work again. I'm a budget expert, a fiscal conservative, a small business owner and a local legislator.
What I do for a living is to show people how to get more for their money. I saved Westchester County over $120 million dollars in wasteful spending, and I helped preserve the county's AAA bond rating, saving millions more in higher interest costs. By helping to save the Westchester Medical Center from bankruptcy, I helped to preserve jobs while taking a money-losing hospital that was costing taxpayers $35 million per year and making it viable and independent.
I will fight to finally put caps on property taxes and to restore and strengthen the STAR program. I will fight to revise the school aid formula to get our Putnam, Dutchess and Westchester schools their fair share of state funding.
Greg Ball is an ineffective legislator who is part of the establishment and dysfunction in Albany. He has gotten zero bills passed as an Assemblyman while spending over $675,000 of taxpayer money to operate his State Assembly office and collecting an annual $9,731 "leadership" bonus. He also has the second highest franking costs of any member in the Assembly. All New York has to show from Ball's four years in Albany are higher taxes, more spending, and fewer jobs. And he has no real ideas on how to get us out of this mess.
I am an independent Democrat who has voted against the former Democratic County Executive's tax increases and against pay raises for myself and the other legislators. New York is in desperate need of reform. As a State Senator, my ideas and my independence will allow me to bring about real change and save taxpayers across my district and our entire state some of their hard earned money.
The Teabagging crazies recently held a protest at a press conference of yours- what was that experience like?
My campaign is about making New York work again. I am devoted to presenting the common sense solutions that we need to lower taxes, cut wasteful spending, create jobs and reform Albany. I understand, and certainly expect, that some would disagree with my ideas and attempt to sidetrack my campaign and divert attention from the positive message we have to fix our broken state.
I generally admire and encourage passion and participation from concerned constituents of all stripes. I just ask that it be done in a fashion that allows for real debate and a true exchange of ideas. Otherwise, we all lose out by passing on an opportunity for real discussion and debate on the tremendous problems we currently face.
You're a supporter of building a new Tappan Zee Bridge. Do you support having the new bridge multi-modal with Metro-North trains going over it, and if so, how would you have it paid for?
Building a new Tappan Zee Bridge is just one of my many ideas for how we should go about creating jobs and draw businesses to the Hudson Valley. The new bridge should include a Metro North commuter rail line as well as high-speed bus lanes and expanded highways. I would pursue many different avenues of financing, including private financing and federal funds that would be available for such a project. I also will make sure the construction is done in an environmentally sound manner.
A new Tappan Zee Bridge would be a real boon for small businesses in the Hudson Valley. As a small business owner myself, I know we must help small businesses survive and thrive. Bringing jobs to my district is something I've done before and will be the focus of my work in the State Senate.
The next in our interview series will be Mike Kaplowitz, who is running for the 40th district Senate Seat being vacated by Vincent Leibell. His opponent will be the winner of the Christian Nationalist GOP primary, either crazy person Greg Ball or Mary Beth Murphy. You can see a good intro to Kaplowitz in this video:
This half-page ad appeared the Putnam County Times last Wednesday:
The text of the restraining order reads:
July 5 - present, 2003 at all hours.
Respondent calls and shows up at petitioners residence despite repeated requests not to.
Tells petitioners he has a sexually transmitted disease but has been keeping it to himself. Refuses to provide details."
From Ball's actual press release, not from The Onion:
--All emphasis mine.
The People's Convention will be held in the heart of the 40th State Senate district and is open to all taxpayers, voters and patriots. "I've never been the candidate of the good ol' boys and I'm proud to be the Albany outsider in this race," Ball said. "The same hand of Albany's Republican Leadership that handpicked Pedro Espada is now picking their puppet in our backyard. Albany needs independent leaders, not puppets. My grassroots outsider message of limited government and supporting constitutional freedoms has enormous support in this district. I didn't go to Albany to make friends, I went to Albany to make a difference. What the elitists in Albany's ivory tower don't get is that voters of all persuasions are ready to take their state back, away from the same corrupting special interests that I fight everyday."
...
In his email to Cox, Ball revealed that he had not been invited to the Republican Convention to nominate a candidate for the 40th Senate District, and that he learned about it third hand. Ball said he will instead seek the nomination of the People's Convention. "We will host the People's Convention on July 24th to listen to the people, and to address our concerns of immigration, lower taxes, corruption and government spending," Ball said. "I will be proud of this historic moment and movement as it will represent the will of the people." The People's Convention will feature many great speakers and every political candidate and public official who speaks will be required to sign a Tax Free Pledge.
Terrorist killer, American Patriot and Successful Author, U.S. Senate candidate Gary Bernsten, will serve as the Convention's Key-note speaker. "I look forward to being in Patterson to witness the people's nomination of my good friend, Greg Ball, to be the choice of the people," Bernsten said. "Greg's a military guy just like I am. He served his country, and he will serve our country and our state again, proudly." "Our hope is to take the passion that is out there, the passion you see at Tea Parties nationally and at Town Halls locally, and turn that into real political action," Ball said.
An open "Shout Out" Forum will be held with guest speakers as well as regular voters and taxpayers. Voters from throughout the State Senate district and beyond will be allowed to nominate a candidate of their choosing. "New Yorkers are over-taxed,frustrated, and they are voting the only way they know how: with their feet," Coleman said. "Greg Ball is doing what no one else cares to do, to give the people their voice and give people input into the nomination process. For four years, the people were overwhelmingly behind Greg Ball, and Greg Ball and his legions of supporters of all parties were ignored by political insiders. Now, Greg Ball will give the people power in the nomination process with this rally and convention."
....
An independent poll in 2010 demonstrated that Ball is once again poised for a landslide victory against the Leader's anointed candidate. He leads by 40 points. Yet Greg Ball says he will continue to run like he is 40 points behind, not ahead, and he is relying upon one-on-one voter contact and a growing grassroots infrastructure.
Not that it should surpprise anyone, but it appears that Ball is pulling a Paladino and fully embracing the Teabagger circus.
Oh, and who is the "terrorist killer" Patriot that has signed on for this thing? He's the ex-CIA spook who just announced a run against Chuck Schumer. All fine and well. But check out the way one of his supporters described him today:
"If you were to waterboard Chuck Schumer and ask him who he does not want to run against in November, he would gurgle the name Gary Berntsen," wrote D. Patrick Mahoney, the president of Iraq Veterans For Congress PAC, which sent out the email announcement.
Nothing says Freedom Fries like waterboarding a sitting U.S. Senator...
