So, imagine you are speaking for the New York GOP. Your favorite son, Rudy 9u11ani, just got tripled by a Libertarian gadfly in Iowa, a guy who tells supporters that he wants to return the USA to the freakin' gold standard with a straight face. Your guy comes in 6th, barely beating out wingnut extraordinaire Duncan "my fence is big" Hunter, in a state where he at one time was the front runner. And all your guy can do is mutter "9/11" over and over again from somewhere in Florida.
The state GOP just issued a press release with the subject line "Democrats' Plan is Wrong for America," that starts out with a more-or-less standard criticism of Iowa and the opposing party for being big spenders and not tough enough on security.
And then came this from state GOP spokesman Matt Walter:
"At the state level, now that that the Iowa caucuses are completed, Lieutenant Governor David Paterson will hopefully return to the critical issues facing the New Yorkers he was elected to serve - issues like tax relief, job creation and commonsense criminal justice measures - rather than spending his time traveling out of state to involve himself in the presidential campaign."
Overall percentage of electorate Liberals: 36%
Conservatives: 34%
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 31%
OK, we know that Dems had well over 100,000 more caucus goers than the GOoPs. No surprises. But check out this breakdown:
Which caucus each group attended
Moderates: Democratic 88%--12% Republican (I keep saying it--the Democratic Party is Unity08)
Urban: Democratic 87%--13% Republican
Age 17-29: Democratic 80%--20% Republican
Independents: Democratic 75%--25% Republican
Suburban: Democratic 73%--27% Republican
Women: Democratic 72%--28% Republican
Age 30-44: Democratic 70%--30% Republican
Age 45-64: Democratic 62%--38% Republican
Age 65+: Democratic 61%--39% Republican
Men: Democratic 60%--40% Republican
Rural: Republican 53%--47% Democratic
Whoa. 88% of "moderates"? 80% of under 30's? 75% of "independents"? 72% of women?
That's not a rout, it's complete and utter destruction and the echoes of last night are going to be reverberating for years in Iowa.
These are mind-bending numbers. Not only did self-identified liberals out-number self-identified conservatives, but 88% of self-identified moderates caucused with Democrats? Not only did self-identified Democrats outnumber self-identified Republicans by 20%, but 75% self-identified Independents caucused with Democrats? And when did cities in Iowa turn into Philadelphia, D.C., and Detroit in terms of their level of Democratic preference? More than 70% of women voters and voters under 45 caucused with Democrats.
Granted, McCain and Giuliani didn't go all out in Iowa. Still, in the face of these overwhelming numbers, how much of a difference cold they have possibly made? There is a Democratic wave brewing in Iowa, and the credit belongs to more than Obama. Edwards and Clinton each improved on Kerry's 2004 support by a whopping 60%. Richardson had as many supporters as Thompson and McCain. Biden and Dodd went all out in Iowa, too. Certainly, they contributed to what might very well be a structural shift in Iowa's electorate for years to come. It has often been said that the political leanings of people who don't vote are pretty much the same as people who do vote. If that is the case in Iowa, then the hawkeye state has just turned a deep shade of blue.
2008 already looked bleak for Republicans. If these numbers are any indication of what is yet to come, "bleak" ain't the half of it. They're toast.
UPDATE: One more for the road, just to put everything in perspective:
Total Voter Turnout (approximate)
356,000
Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)
Senator Chris Dodd was the candidate I was supporting and now he's dropped out of the race. Dodd was not only talking about leadership, he was actually showing the rest of the field how it was done.Time and time again, when real leadership on issues of immense importance was needed, Chris Dodd stepped up. Here he thanks the people of Iowa as well as the netroots and then withdraws from the race with class and grace. Compare this to the 'Joementum!', "three way tie for third place" nonsense from another Connecticut senator four years ago. Chris Dodd, unlike that other senator, leaves the race with his honor and dignity intact.
I guess I'm looking for a new candidate. Who do you think I should support?
I'll be updating results and reporting unfounded rumors here all night. Early reports from Des Moines are that turnout is very high on the Dem side and there are many party switchers looking to caucus for Dems.
UPDATE: Turnout is WAY up.
Awesome.
Final Results
Senator Barack Obama : 37.58%
Senator John Edwards : 29.75%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1781 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
UPDATE II:
CNN is calling the GOP caucus for Mike Huckabee.
UPDATE III: NBC is calling the Dem caucus for Barack Obama.
I guess it's time for an Iowa Caucus predictions thread. I'll start by giving my own suspect prognostications with this caveat - I picked the Mets to win the World Series last year. Buyer beware, your mileage may vary, yadda, yadda, yadda. That said, I can easily see any of the top three Dems winning this thing and I think that the distance from first to third won't be all that great. This thing is awfully close and these names could be scrambled in any combination.
Democrats:
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
4. Everybody else
GOoPs:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. The rest of the freak show.
One last prediction: Ron Paul will outperform Rudy Giuliani in Iowa.
Our junior Senator is airing a two minute TV ad tonight during the local newscasts in Iowa. It's one shot and she is speaking directly to the camera for the duration. From a production standpoint, it's very, very well done. As for the content, Hillary closes with the line, "If you stand up for me for one night, I will stand up for you every day as president." I think the spot is pretty effective.
