If you had to pick a race statewide that could determine what party has the majority in the New York State Senate, look no further than the 61st Senate District. Democratic candidate Joe Mesi is taking on Republican Mike Ranzenhofer in a very close and hotly contested race.
Tonight, Mesi held a gathering in Batavia. At left it was I encountered when I pulled up to park for the event. What I didn't get on camera was the half-dozen Ranzenhofer supporters that decided they would stand in front of the event's venue - Main Street Cafe - holding Ranzenhofer signs. Apparently they decided that since the Democrats had been doing it for awhile in front of their headquarters, they would do it on the eve of the election.
But inside the event was a great atmosphere. At its peak, the event had 40-50 people. There were people of all ages in attendance for pizza, mingling with Mesi and a nice enjoyable evening before Election Day.
Mesi also addressed the crowd. You can hear the bulk of his remarks in this video:
I remember first meeting Joe Mesi. That was nearly seven months ago. You could tell then that he was still learning. He was educating himself about the important issues and told the story that led to his candidacy. His brother lost his job at American Axle and that motivated Mesi to run for office.
Since my interview with Mesi, he has evolved into quite a candidate. His Plan for Change is pure genius. I say that because he put his platform into an easy-to-read booklet that was available at his campaign headquarters and handed out tonight at the gathering. Candidates usually use basic talking points on the stump or ramble on about what their policy positions are. Instead of doing that, Mesi decided to put his plans and his positions on paper for the world to see. That way, if there are any questions about where he stands, you can refer to the booklet.
So why should the people of the 61st Senate District elect Joe Mesi their state senator? Mesi is genuine. He truly cares about Western New York. This is where he built his life. This is where he became a heavyweight boxer. This is where he became a local star. And this is where he wants to stay, raise his own family and better the region that has given so much to him. He will be a great state senator for Erie and Genesee counties and he will represent them well.
This is the last day for campaigns and candidates to make a difference. Tomorrow is the day where you make sure that your base is coming out to support you at the polls and that the support you receive propels you into office, or in Sen. Bill Stachowski's case, gets you re-elected.
Stachowski will spend his day hitting the pavement in the 58th Senate District. Stachowski's race is close, but with one final push it looks like he will close it out tomorrow.
Joe Mesi is going to do something truly interesting in his final day on the trail: He is going to visit all 17 towns in the 61st Senate District. He will make a stop in Batavia later today and I will be in attendance for that.
Mesi's race against Republican Mike Ranzenhofer is a close one. Mesi can pull it out and has all the tools to pull it out so we will see what happens tomorrow. We're hoping for the best and hoping he can knock off a career politician.
I just received word from someone canvassing for Joe Mesi that more than a few voters have received calls from someone claiming to be connected to the Gay City News saying that Mesi is endorsed by the publication and supports marriage equality. Of course, these calls aren't coming from the publication.
These calls are also being made in the 6th Senate District, where those calls have been informing voters that the Gay City News supports Kristen McElroy. According to my source, the same can be said of the Mesi calls.
Why is this a problem? The 61st is a fairly moderate-to-conservative district. The race in the 61st hasn't been about social issues like marriage equality. The economy, jobs and property taxes have been the biggest issues. So this is a shameless attempt by the Republicans to get these issues back into the main focus of voters.
I imagine Gay City News isn't happy about this. This is a dirty GOP trick, to say the least.
The room was packed. I estimated no less than 100 people in the room not including the candidates and elected officials. It was a passionate crowd that gave loud ovations when Stachowski and Mesi were introduced or when their names were mentioned. Sen. Thompson gave an excellent speech and riled up the crowd. Hochul also gave a great speech and Mayor Brown introduced Gov. Paterson. Brown and Paterson served in the New York State Senate together before each ended up in their respective executive roles.
Paterson gave an outstanding speech. I do have video of the whole thing, which you can see below the fold, but I wanted to emphasize this clip.
While Paterson might not be taking that no-holds barred approach that his predecessor did, he is willing to help Democrats win the Senate and help further his own executive agenda. Paterson certainly helped the cause yesterday as he received a warm welcome from everybody in the room. Not only that, but he helped boost Stachowski and Mesi, who are involved in hot contests here in Western New York.
"Today's poll speaks for itself. Voters here recognize that Democrat Bill Stachowski has a real record of saving jobs and fighting Republican outsourcing schemes. The more they learn about his Republican opponent's plan to maintain the status quo in Albany, the less they like."
Joe Mesi's campaign also responded about today's findings that indicated Mesi is running a tight race against Republican Mike Ranzenhofer.
"With the polls showing a neck-and-neck race, Joe Mesi's campaign is heading into the final 48 hours with a wave of momentum from endorsements by Senator Hillary Clinton and Governor David Paterson. Joe Mesi will be fighting to the finish - talking to families across Western New York - with a marathon 'Countdown to Change' campaign blitz through each of the 17 towns of the Senate District in 17 hours on election eve."
Stachowski has had quite a turnaround, but there is still a lot of work to be done prior to Tuesday. Mesi is running neck-and-neck with Ranzenhofer and will be working hard over the next two days to earn a victory on Tuesday.
The new Siena Polls are hot off the presses an things look pretty good for Dems across the state. In fact, if these numbers are correct and the election wre held today, the GOP would lose it's Senate majority.
The biggest numbers to pop out is the lead Brian Foley has over Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) and the huge comeback by incumbent Dem Bill Stachowski. Foley leads Trunzo by a whopping 22 points and Stachowski has turned a 13 point deficit into a 4 point lead.
A rundown:
3rd SD - Suffolk County - Caesar Trunzo (R, incumbent) vs. Brian Foley (D)
Foley has a 56-34 percent lead over Trunzo. Trunzo led 46-40 percent in the previous Siena New York Poll. While Foley has picked up a little more support among Democrats, he has cut Trunzo's lead among Republican voters to 53-39 percent, down dramatically from 71-16 percent. Additionally, Foley has opened up a 63-27 percent lead among independent voters, up from 43-40 percent previously.
Foley has expanded a two-point lead in Brookhaven to a 12-point lead, and reversed 12-point deficit in Islip and turned it into 30-point lead. Where Trunzo had a nine-point lead among voters 55-years of age and older, Foley now leads with those voters 52-40 percent. Foley leads by 13 points with men and 30 points with women. The only demographic group in which Trunzo leads is among Republicans.
If Foley leads by even 10 points in Trunzo's Islip backyard, this thing is over. The poll shows a 30 point lead. And before the GOoPs start screaming about the poll sample, look at the Obama/McCain numbers. They are essentially dead even. It's not like they are only polling Dems.
6th SD - Nassau County - Kemp Hannon (R, incumbent) vs. Kristen McElroy (D)
Hannon has a commanding 56-30 percent lead, in a district that is virtually evenly enrolled between Republicans and Democrats. Hannon has the support of 80 percent of Republicans and picks up the support of nearly one-third of Democrats. McElroy only wins among Democrats 55-32 percent, while only attracting support from 10 percent of Republicans. Hannon leads among independent voters 56-21 percent.
McElroy leads among young voters and those in the Council District 1 section of the Hempstead portion of the Senate district. However, Hannon has much bigger leads in the remainder of the district and has better than 60 percent among voters who are at least 35-years old.
Ouch. Got some work to do here.
15th SD - Queens County - Serph Maltese (R, incumbent) vs. Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D)
Addabbo currently has a slim 45-43 percent lead over Maltese. In the September Siena poll, the two were tied at 42 percent, in this district that has an overwhelmingly Democratic enrollment edge. Maltese has the support of more than three-quarters of Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats. Addabbo leads 61-27 percent among Democrats and picks up the support of 20 percent of Republicans. Maltese leads among independent voters 51-31 percent. Maltese leads by four points with men, while Addabbo has a seven-point lead with women. Addabbo leads in the southern part of the district and Maltese leads in the north.
Maltese is viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 33 percent of voters, down from a 48-16 percent favorable rating previously. Addabbo's favorable rating is 42-30 percent, and was previously 38-20 percent.
Obama leads McCain in this district 57-32 percent, up from 49-31 percent.
48th SD - Oswego/Jefferson/St. Lawrence - Darrel Aubertine (D, incumbent) vs. David Renzi (R)
Aubertine, who had a 51-31 percent lead over Renzi in the last poll, has seen that lead drop to 49-38 percent. Aubertine has the support of nearly three-quarters of Democrats and more than one-third of Republicans in this district with a heavy Republican enrollment edge. Renzi leads 57-35 percent with Republicans, up from 41-37 percent previously, and only gets 13 percent of Democrats. Aubertine is winning among independent voters 49-34 percent, up from 41-37 percent previously. While Renzi has erased a 20-point Aubertine lead in Oswego County, and now leads there 44-37 percent, Aubertine has widened his leads in Jefferson (25 points, up from 16) and St. Lawrence (30 points, up from 27) Counties.
Aubertine is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 31 percent of voters, down from 58-21 percent previously. Renzi has a 40-35 percent favorability rating; previously it was 34-15 percent.
Aubertine is going to fine.
58th SD - Erie County - William Stachowski (D, incumbent) vs. Dennis Delano (R)
Stachowski now has a 47-43 percent lead over Delano, after trailing 49-36 percent in the previous Siena poll in this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge. Stachowski has increased his lead among Democrats to 62-30 percent (up from 51-34 percent). Delano maintains a 63-25 percent lead among Republicans (virtually unchanged from 64-23 percent) and has seen his lead among independent voters fall to 54-36 percent, down from 67-19 percent.
Whereas Delano led in all three sections of the district previously, Stachowski now leads 47-37 percent in Buffalo/Lackawanna, 48-45 percent in Cheektowaga, and 47-44 percent in the southern suburbs. Stachowski has a 12-point lead with men, while Delano has a two-point lead with women. Delano has a significant lead with Protestants. Stachowski leads with Catholics, and has a big lead among younger voters.
Stachowski has a 50-31 percent favorable rating. It had been 39-14 percent. Delano's favorable rating, 53-33 percent, is down from 63-15 percent. Delano continues to have a positive favorable rating with voters of every party, while Stachowski has increased his favorability among Democrats but lost ground with independent voters and saw his favorability among Republicans drop from 35-12 percent to 29-50 percent.
More than half of voters would like to see the Senate controlled by Democrats, and Obama has opened 55-37 percent lead over McCain, up from 45-41 percent previously.
"Senator Stachowski has turned this race around. In four weeks he has erased a 13-point deficit and turned it into a tight four-point lead. Where Delano previously had a much better favorable rating with voters, the two are now viewed by voters in virtually the same light. We will have to wait until Election Day to see if Stachowski continues his momentum to win re-election, or if Delano can turn this race back around again and defeat a 27-year incumbent in this overwhelmingly Democratic district," Greenberg said.
Stach is back. That's what a comeback looks like. I guess the more folks learn about Delano, the less they like what they see. Also, this one of those races that an Obama wave could seriously affect. If that wave reaches Buffalo, Stachowski could end up blowing Delano right out of the water.
61st SD - Erie and Genesee Counties - Michael Ranzenhofer (R) vs. Joseph Mesi (D)
Ranzenhofer has a 47-42 percent lead over Mesi, who had a slimmer 40-38 percent lead in the previous Siena poll, in this district where Republicans have a very small enrollment edge over Democrats. Ranzenhofer leads among Republicans 69-25 percent, up from 59-21 percent. Mesi leads among Democrats 62-29 percent, closer than the previous 63-19 percent. Mesi leads among independent voters 42-37 percent, although Ranzenhofer closed the gap from 43-28 percent. Mesi leads in Tonawanda by seven points (down from 10). Ranzenhofer leads in the Clarence/Newstead/Genesee County portions of the district by 15 points (up from two points), and in Amherst by three points (up a tick from two points).
Ranzenhofer has a 47-26 percent favorable rating, compared to 35-12 percent previously. Mesi's favorable rating is 46-37 percent, compared to 45-18 percent in the previous Siena poll.
While the race has shifted seven points from Mesi to Ranzenhofer, a reverse trend occurred on the question of who voters support to control the Senate. Previously, voters supported Republican control by a 44-38 percent margin, while now a slim plurality, 43-41 percent, support Democratic control. The presidential race also flipped, with McCain's 45-40 percent lead now becoming a 51-42 percent lead for Obama.
"This district is close in enrollment between Republicans and Democrats. The voters are close in their view on which party should control the Senate. The voters have switched their support from McCain to Obama over the last few weeks. And a small Mesi lead has turned into a slightly wider Ranzenhofer lead. Which party's voters turn out in larger numbers on Tuesday may well determine the outcome of this race. Either way, it figures to be a late night as the votes get counted in this race," Greenberg said.
This one may very well come down to Obama's GOTV operation as well. If his voters show in force, I think Mesi wins this thing. Mesi likes to remind folks that he is undefeated. If the Obama wave does indeed materialize in the manner that it appears to be, he'll be able to call himself undefeated still. Give him a hand.
Governor Paterson headlined a large rally for Senator Bill Stachowski and SD-61 challenger Joe Mesi in Buffalo today. I believe that Robert was there (and I'm sure more than a few other TAPpers as well) and he'll have a report back later this afternoon. For now, here's some pics and a release from the Stachowski campaign.
Governor David Paterson spoke before an overflow crowd at the UAW Region 9 hall in Williamsville today urging local voters to help get out the vote (GOTV) for Democratic candidates like Bill Stachowski, who is running for the New York State Senate.
For the first time in more than 40 years, Democrats are likely to take the Majority in the Senate. The ideological shift as a result will better serve economic development and job growth initiatives Upstate and statewide, which have floundered under a failed economic agenda of Senate Republicans. The election of Stachowski is recognized as key to that changeover in power in Albany.
"Bill is one of the most dedicated public servants I have ever had the pleasure of working with," said Governor Paterson. "He has an uncommon understanding of the communities of his district and the concerns they face. New York is in some tough times. We cannot afford to lose Bill's experience, knowledge and vision. Democrats have the first opportunity in more than 40 years to create real change with Bill's election-to grow the upstate economy, bring new green jobs and industries to our state, and ensure every New Yorker gets the education and affordable healthcare they deserve. Anyone who cares about these issues can be proud to cast their ballot for Bill Stachowski on Tuesday."
Speaking to hundreds of supporters, Governor Paterson spoke about the importance of this year's election and why Democrats have earned the chance to lead Congress and the State Legislature. He noted that people who want to see real change cannot stop at Barack Obama for President-they need to vote right down the ballot.
"People should not underestimate the importance of this election and how every race on every level of government can make a difference," said Democratic State Senator Bill Stachowski. "Governor Paterson has provided incredible leadership during hard economic times. It is nice to have a partner in the Executive Chamber who is committed to Western New York and the health of our economy. Western New Yorkers deserves better than what the Republican legacy has left us. There is a lot of hard work to get things back on track. I look forward to joining with the Governor as a member of the Democratic Majority in the Senate, focusing on the issues that matter most."
Looks like a great event and I'm looking forward to hearing from Robert and others who were there.
Where are you today? What's going on where you are?
On the web:
Earlier today, Sen. Schumer announced that he is endorsing Joe Mesi for New York State Senate.
Here is video from the event today:
This is more on the endorsement from a campaign press release:
"I support Joe Mesi because I know he has the toughness, discipline and work ethic to stand up to entrenched interests and fight for change for hard-working families in Western New York," said New York's senior U.S. Senator.
Senator Schumer noted that Mesi has spelled out his platform for job growth in Western New York and reform in Albany in a 18-page booklet titled, "A Plan for Change-Specific New Ideas for Our Future". Mesi's plan for change includes investments in green jobs and education, a middle-class property tax cut and reductions in wasteful spending.
"Joe is the right person to represent the hard working families of Western New York," said Senator Schumer. "Joe understands what it means to face adversity, what it means stand up to a challenge, and what it means to persevere. He will fight for the change we need in albany."
Mesi's Plan for Change has been a hit. The booklet outlines Mesi's plan for Western New York should he be elected to the Senate.
This is a nice endorsement of Mesi by Schumer and it shows that Mesi has the support of key elected officials who he will have to work with to implement that plan.
It seems pretty much all upstate Republicans are sticking to the tired old "ooga booga...NYC" messaging that has so successful as of late. (Hello, Senator Aubertine!) Just like clueless wingnut Dennis Delano, SD-61 GOP hopeful Mike Ranzenhofer is raking in big bucks from downstate fat cats all the while telling anyone who will listen that Joe Mesi is too beholden to downstate interests. Sound familiar?
Developers in NYC know that if Republicans lose power their gravy train in Albany will go out the window too. For decades Republicans have taken money from developers and then thanked them by loosening laws to protect tenants and giving developers tax breaks, sweetheart land deals, and other favors.
Glenwood Management, which has given Ranzenhofer over $19,000, was featured in a NYT’s article from last year as one of the main development companies involved in lobbying efforts to keep a loophole open that effectively lets them donate as much as they want to political interests.
It’s ironic that Mike Ranzenhofer and his cronies try to paint Mesi as a tool of downstate interests when in fact Ranzenhofer and his Republican buddies have been used as a pawn for downstate developers for decades.
Ranzenhofer even goes so far as to run this ad to drive his BS point home:
There is a negative Ranzenhofer ad out there hitting Mesi for taking downstate money. (Interesting that it's bad for Mesi, but OK for Ranzenhofer and Delano. But I digress).
This is how Ranzenhofer's ad illustrates the point about downstate money. In it, a stencil is applied over a white brick wall that has "NYC" drawn in stylized graffitti print. A spray can miraculously appears, causing the message carved into the stencil to appear on the brick wall. I don't even remember what the point being made is.
What's Ranzenhofer trying to say here? That downstate = urban blight, graffitti, and defacement of property? Gee, what a fascinating image to convey. I'd love to hear more about why that particular device was employed to make this point.
To summarize this race, Joe Mesi is running on issues that are important to working families. He is focusing on economic concerns and job creation during this campaign and improving our health care system.
Mesi's Republican opponent Mike Ranzenhofer is running the usual Republican campaign we see here in upstate New York. Tie the Democrat to New York City/Downstate special interests and then go on the attack. Ranzenhofer has also introduced his own element to this campaign and that has been a condescending tone towards Mesi. Ranzenhofer is a career politician who is acting like, well, a career politician.
Through all this, Mesi has stuck to his guns. Yesterday, he released his Plan for Change highlighting his plans for job creation, middle class tax relief, investing in higher education, implementing a new energy economy and reforming Albany. It is a 20 page booklet that you can read online or you may pick up a copy of the booklet at the Joe Mesi campaign headquarters at 2001 Niagara Falls Blvd in Amherst and at the Genesee County headquarters in the
Mesi said this about the release of his plan:
"I want you to read my plan and talk about the issues. You might not agree with every detail, but you deserve to know where I stand. We need new leadership in Albany that believes in us and much as we believe in ourselves. New leadership that won't give up. That won't say cut - with a sledgehammer - but instead say use a scalpel, and, at the same time, invest in our strengths and believe in our future."
In other news, it seems like Ranzenhofer flip-flopped on a major position of his. Ranzenhofer has called for a 15 percent across-the-board spending cut. I would presume this would apply to things like health care and infrastructure, unless Ranzenhofer has some brilliant across-the-board spending cut I've never heard of where you exempt those two items.
Ranzenhofer has sent out a mailer that says Mesi doesn't have a plan and no experience creating jobs. Then when talking about what Mesi's economic plan (I thought he didn't have a plan, Ranzenhofer campaign?) the mailer mentions places where Mesi will allegedly be cutting funds (both are untrue).
Of course, this is an odd issue to attack Mesi on considering Ranzenhofer is the one pushing for a 15 percent across-the-board spending cut that he says will save us billions of dollars. That is his economic plan and a plan that will only lead to more failure in this state.
Joe Mesi has a real plan of action. He has the Plan for Change.
The battle in the 61st Senate District between Joe Mesi and Mike Ranzenhofer is heating up. There is a lot of money coming in for this race and a lot of money being spent. With the 11 day pre-general filing deadline upon us, here are the totals to date from each campaign.
A few things here: Ranzenhofer has received plenty of help from the SRCC. His fundraising is balanced among individuals, corporations and "other" sources. But the help he has received from the party is enormous.
The most money Mesi has received has also come from the party, but he has also shown an ability to raise money. That will be good down the stretch when spending money will be a priority. It's nice to know that if you need money, you can go out and get it.
This is a tight race. More money will be poured into this one from both sides. The Republicans are clearly invested in this race. They want to keep it almost to the point of being desperate to keep it. In reality, this seat could decide which way the New York State Senate swings. It's going to be fun to watch over these next ten days.
Joe Mesi and Mike Ranzenhofer faced off on WBEN's "Hardline with Hardwick" this morning in a debate that featured a strong change message from Mesi and more of the same Republican talking points from Ranzenhofer.
Mesi had a strong debate and even faced a tough question about his connections to Tom Golisano and Steve Pigeon, which he weathered. Mesi labeled Ranzenhofer as a career politician and Ranzenhofer acted like it at times by trying to tell Mesi how he should act or how he should answer questions. Ranzenhofer patronized Mesi at multiple points throughout the debate and I don't think that did Ranzenhofer any favors.
There are plenty of differences between these two candidates. Ranzenhofer proposed 15 percent across-the-board spending cuts as his way of addressing out-of-control spending at the state level. Ranzenhofer argued that we need these cuts. The only programs he would exempt are monies for local governments and school districts. (Note: Hardwick pointed out that aid for schools and local governments make up a huge chunk of the budget. That didn't change Ranzenhofer's mind.) Mesi proposed a seven percent cut in capital spending and said he would target Medicaid fraud while protecting investments that we need to grow. Mesi also called for closing corporate loopholes and reforming Empire Zones and IDAs, which is something that wasn't addressed by Ranzenhofer.
Both candidates also differ on taxes. Ranzenhofer is pushing for a tax cap while Mesi is a supporter of the circuit breaker. Mesi said that a tax cap would be a good start, but in order to achieve the tax relief he wants, we need to implement a circuit breaker. Ranzenhofer dismissed the circuit breaker as a creation of the Assembly downstate Democrats that he would be a "killer" for upstate.
Joe Mesi is arguably the front-runner in the 61st Senate District. He also is calling out Republican career politician Mike Ranzenhofer for his claims about taking on big spending and asking Ranzenhofer where he stands on the Delaware North deal.
"Will Mike Ranzenhofer stand up for Western New York? Or stand with his downstate partner Dean Skelos? Western New York wants to know," said Mesi.
Mesi's campaign tied Ranzenhofer to Skelos again when they said that Ranzenhofer was for big spending before he was against it.
State Senate Joe Mesi's campaign said today that his Republican opponent Mike Ranzenhofer's call for a "constitutional cap on spending" was not believable - and that Ranzenhofer's love-fest with Long Island State Senator Dean Skelos proves it.
"When a career politician like Mike Ranzenhofer says he's going to cut spending, it's time to watch your wallet. Ranzenhofer was for big spending before he was against it. Mike Ranzenhofer was a County Legislator during the worst fiscal crisis in the history of Erie County. During that time, he voted for nearly $3 million in pork-barrel spending. Watch what politicians like Ranzenhofer do, not what they say," said Emma Wolfe, Mesi's campaign manager.
"And here's more reason to worry: Mike Ranzenhofer has formed a close bond with his downstate patron Dean Skelos. The problem is that Skelos's Republican majority has signed off on budget after budget with reckless spending increases. Skelos and Ranzenhofer together equals more of the same."
"Among the State Senate candidates, only Joe Mesi has put forward a realistic plan to cut wasteful state spending and lower property taxes for working families," Wolfe said.
Ranzenhofer might be the seasoned politician here, but Mesi has him against the ropes (no pun intended). Mesi has become very strong throughout this campaign when it comes to issues and the discussion of those issues. The election is right around the corner and the 61st Senate District could be turning blue right before our eyes.
Joe Mesi released two key campaign pieces today when he announced his five point plan for jobs in Western New York and also came out with his first TV ad reaching out to voters in the 61st Senate District.
First, the television ad. Here it is:
Mesi's five point plan for jobs focuses on creating jobs in Western New York as well as keeping jobs in the area. Job creation is one thing. Keeping those jobs here is another. We know that better than anyone.
Here is Mesi's five point plan:
1. Target investments to build on our strengths. The science advances at UB and the bioinformatics and cancer research taking place at Roswell Park should help attract the kind of high-tech jobs that will keep our kids here-and give them a real future. In the Senate, Joe Mesi will fight to increase funding for our universities.
2. Reform Empire Zones and Industrial Development Agencies. These programs provide breaks to businesses who promise to create jobs. But too often, we end up subsidizing businesses that are cutting jobs, not creating them. That's got to change. We have to hold them accountable and make sure they keep their promises, so our kids can stay here and find good jobs.
3. Lower Property Taxes because high tax rates put us at a competitive disadvantage and discourage businesses from locating here.
4. End Tax Breaks for Corporations that Move Our Jobs Out of State. In just the past year, the Republican-led Senate defeated an anti-outsourcing bill. There's no excuse for Albany helping CEOs outsource our jobs-with our tax dollars, leaving New York families holding the bill. It should be the Senate's job to protect our jobs.
5. Grow Green Industries. Western New York should be a model in growing "green industries." Mesi's plan will cut energy costs, create jobs in growing economic sectors, and curbing global warming by investing in renewable energy and training the next generation of workers.
Mesi knows where our focus has to be. This should be the focus of other legislators in Western New York. We have the resources to have green energy industries flourish here. We also have strong colleges and universities that should be utilized. We do have plenty of land for Empire Zones, which is why Empire Zones need to be reined in. We need companies who utilize Empire Zones for tax breaks to be held accountable to make sure they are creating the jobs they said they would.
The Siena polls released today have created quite the buzz. No one said this New York State Senate fight would be easy, but it certainly is quite intriguing. These polls showed that these races are going to be very competitive in some places and not-so competitive in others.
But how seriously should we take these polls? Let's use this disclaimer from the poll to get this analysis started:
These SRI surveys were conducted from September 11-17, 2008 by telephone calls to likely registered voters in each State Senate district. For the 3rd SD, 405 voters were called, with a margin of error of + 4.9 percentage points. For the 7th SD, 402 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9. For the 15th SD, 401 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9. For the 48th SD, 437 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 56th SD, 429 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 61st SD, 450 voters were called, margin of error + 4.6. Data was statistically adjusted by respondent age - and in the 3rd SD, party - to match likely voters.
Phillip mentioned the high margin of error earlier. I would also like to point out that only 400-plus voters were surveyed in each district. That is a very small sample when you take into consideration how many voters each senate district contains.
There also some questions I had after looking at the crosstabulations for each poll. Take SD-56's crosstabs, for example. Sen. Joe Robach had a favorable rating in Greece/Parma of 71 percent. That is Robach's turf, but 71 percent still seems high to me considering Rick Dollinger had a 56 percent favorable rating on his turf in Brighton. Those numbers tell me that when they conducted this poll and especially when they called voters in Greece, they called more Republicans than Democrats. That Greece/Parma portion of the poll just seems to be inflated to me. This race isn't a double-digit race. We are talking single-digits, if not a dead heat.
The SD-3 crosstabs also boggle my mind. Trunzo is viewed favorably by 54 percent of Democrats? Really? That seems very high to me, especially since this guy is in hiding somewhere. Also, Trunzo is viewed more favorably than Brian Foley in Foley's hometown of Brookhaven. That doesn't sound right to me. And Trunzo is viewed more favorably among people ages 18 to 34? I'll have to take you word for it.
I will echo what Phillip said earlier and that is take these results with a grain of salt. Overall, I think SD-15 and SD-61 are about right. It would make sense that both of those races are tied at the moment. I do think SD-3 is much closer than that and I would even bet Foley is leading. The SD-56 poll also doesn't show how close that race truly is. Again, it depends on your sample. If your sample leans one way or another, that's the way the poll will lean. I'm not accusing Siena of anything (they do great work there) but the sample you have is the sample you work with.
What the Siena polls did tell us today is that we have a fight on our hands. But it also gave the Republicans a nice warning shot across the bow. We are coming for them with everything we have. To think, we could have four races (SD-3, SD-15, SD-56 and SD-61) in play and the Republicans are spending their resources in two races (SD-7 and SD-48) where our incumbent senators are up by double-digits.
November 4 is going to be very, very good for us. But we still need to work hard. There are other races throughout the state we should keep an eye on and work just as hard in. This election is ours for the taking. So let's take it.
I really like this from our candidates. Following last week's event here at City hall in NYC, a number of our upstate candidates are holding another event in Rochester. It's a great way to score some free media at a time when interest in these races is really beginning to pick up steam. (And trust me, that interest really is picking up. My server logs don't lie. Google action on these races is through the roof in the last few weeks.)
From an emailed release:
Upstate Democratic Senate Candidates Blast Republicans for Failing New York State
(Rochester, NY) Throughout their 40 years in control of the State Senate, Republicans have failed to meet the needs of working class New Yorkers and revitalize the Upstate economy. With a struggling economy statewide, rising energy costs and crumbling housing market in Upstate communities, New York can no longer afford the unfulfilled promises of Senate Republicans. Democratic candidates for the State Senate are holding a press conference to blast Republicans for failing to make the changes needed to get New York back on track.
Invited:
I like four of these races they are pulling. I am eager to see the poll for Foley vs. Trunzo out on Long Island. That poll should tell us how Trunzo's faceless campaign is working out for him.
I also like the polling for Addabbo vs. Maltese, Dollinger vs. Robach and Mesi vs. Ranzenhofer. Those are three races we can win. The poll results should tell us how we stand at this point and what we have to do to make these end up in our column.
I do think Siena wasted their time polling SD-7 and SD-48. I might be able to understand SD-48, but I have yet to see anything from the GOP or Renzi to show me that they really want SD-48 back. And polling SD-7 is a waste, considering the only reason this race is being talked about is Dean Skelos and his vendetta against Sen. Johnson. Skelos needs to get over himself. I rated SD-7 "safe Democratic" for a reason. Barbara Donno is the Sarah Palin of New York State politics. Donno is going nowhere but the Republicans are spending money on her campaign like she was a real contender.
It is safe to predict that these polls tomorrow will show most of these races to be close. The one sleeper could be SD-61. Joe Mesi has name recognition, which is something Ranzenhofer lacks. Staunch Republicans might know who Ranzenhofer is, but the low information Republican males in the district probably don't care who Ranzenhofer is. But they know who Joe Mesi is and they would vote for Joe Mesi.
The three big races for us are SD-3, SD-15 and SD-56. All three should show tight races, although SD-3 might be leaning more towards Foley. Foley is out and about in the district and has made himself very visible. Trunzo hasn't done that. That might not be reflected in this poll, but it will be reflected in the only poll that matters on November 4.
Mesi had a strong debate and even faced a tough question about his connections to Tom Golisano and Steve Pigeon, which he weathered. Mesi labeled Ranzenhofer as a career politician and Ranzenhofer acted like it at times by trying to tell Mesi how he should act or how he should answer questions. Ranzenhofer patronized Mesi at multiple points throughout the debate and I don't think that did Ranzenhofer any favors.
