The day of reckoning is upon us, folks. Without further ado, here is your official election prediction open thread.
I encourage all of you to officially submit your guestimates at kos before 1 pm.
For the record, my prediction is as follows:
60 Democratic Senate seats
40 Republican Senate seats
258 Democratic House seats
177 Republican House seats
382 Obama Electoral Votes
156 McCain Electoral Votes
52.9 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
46.1 McCain Popular Vote Percentage
My methodology was that
1) the minor party candidates would total 1% of the national individual vote. That's about what it was in 2004. I suspect that Barr may get more votes than Nader in '04, but the overall percentage will be mitigated by massive turnout among the major parties, especially on the Democratic side.
2) For electoral vote purposes, Obama gets all of the states he is currently ahead in, as per electoral-vote.com, plus Georgia because of Black turnout that every pollster is underrepresenting, Missouri because Obama will win there ever-so-slightly, and he snags 3 electoral votes from one of Montana or the Dakotas.
3) For the senate, we get the easy 58 seats everybody expects, plus Al Franken wins by the seat of his pants and the aforementioned huge black turnout sweeps Jim Martin to victory in Georgia.
4) For the house, I essentially just divied up the swing districts as alotted by pollster.com as I thought they would go, but I also noticed that pollster isn't as on top of their game on the local scene, as they currently have NY-13 as "strong republican." So I corrected that in my estimation. For the record, I picked Massa, Maffei and Kyrzan to win.
5) For the State Senate, I think Foley and Addabbo are locks, clinching control of the senate, Zell Millers, Joe Liebermans Ruben Diaz's, Carl Kruger's not withstanding. I think Mesi pulls off a squeaker, Dollinger is 50/50, and one of our grassroots/netroots heroes Don Barber or Paloma Capanna pull out a victory, Darrel Aubertine-style. And Stach survives.
6) And finally, the New York City board of elections is a complete ff'n joke. I requested an absentee ballot so I could go poll-watching in a swing state, but that ballot never came. So I will stay in NYC, vote, and make calls all day. It's sad how broken our state government is. Just another reminder will be when we vote tomorrow with voting machines that were probably around the last time NY had a Democratic Senate. Hopefully all that will change starting TOMORROW!
This is a good sign of just how worried some New Yorkers are about the possibility of a McCain presidency:
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Condominium buyers can get more than granite countertops and penthouse views for $4.16 million in Manhattan's Chelsea neighborhood. If Barack Obama isn't elected president, they can get out of the deal.
Call it the Obama contingency. Buyers at the building called +aRt will be released from their purchase contract ``no questions asked'' should the Democratic candidate lose to John McCain on Nov. 4, said Erik Ekstein, president of Ekstein Development.
[....]
Some would-be buyers visited the building, discussed financing, and then said they feared McCain, Ekstein said. Victory by the Republican will trigger the escape hatch for anyone who signs a sales agreement before then.
Because the FSM just doesn't love me this much:
McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted
Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew's latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.
A breakdown of voting intentions by demographic groups shows that since mid- September, McCain's support has declined significantly across most voting blocs. Currently, McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans). In addition, Obama runs nearly even with McCain in the so-called red states, all of which George W. Bush won in 2004.
Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.
I'd love to believe this, but it just seems pretty far out of whack with the other national polls.
Of course, I'd also love to be dead wrong about it too.
I have heard it all. A Conservative Party member that I know told me that Barack Obama was "dangerous" and that I "still had time" to change my mind.
You know, because I have only been supporting Obama since last November.
But this endorsement of John McCain takes the cake. Assemblyman Dov Hikind, a Democrat from Brooklyn, decided to endorse McCain over Obama apparently because he doesn't like Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Here is Hikind's argument:
"The Reverend Jeremiah Wright repeatedly lauded Louis Farrakhan, conferring upon him honorific titles, often sounding like a devoted disciple of Farrakhan's. Farrakhan called Judaism the 'synagogue of Satan.' And Rev. Wright echoed the anti-Semitism, blaming Israel for 9/11. Wright said, 'You don't see the connection between 9-11-01 and the Israeli Palestinian?.....something wrong?....You wanna buy my glasses?'
Obama did nothing. He said nothing. Not for one year. Not for five years...not even after 10 years. For 20 years, Obama did not protest his pastor's racist tantrums. That is a catastrophic error in judgement and brings into question whether he has the integrity, the strength of character and the discerning judgment to lead our great country.
He said nothing? Then what's this:
If I had a nickel for every time someone told me they were voting for McCain because they disagreed with Obama on the issues, I would be broke. I have yet to hear such a declaration from any of the anti-Obama people out there. They cite Rev. Wright as if Obama was pushing his own agenda through Wright. They mention Bill Ayers, as if Obama and Ayers were lifelong friends who knew each other when Ayers was in Weather Underground. They label Obama as a socialist (when he's not) and claim that because he's a Muslim (he isn't) they can't possibly vote for him. Even John McCain got visibly disgusted when an audience member at one of his rallies said that Obama was an "Arab."
For the record, I didn't know who Dov Hikind was before tonight and I still don't care who he is now. So his "endorsement" of McCain makes me laugh. Seriously, why not just shut up and keep your vote to yourself. You will do the intelligence parts of society a huge favor.
Apparently, this (meaning the sparse attendance) was to be expected once he started campaigning without Sarah Palin. Disappointing for McCain? You betcha.
This is just awful. When the incredibly fishy from the get go story of a McCain volunteer being attacked by a black man in Pittsburgh, it was obvious that folks in the McCain campaign and RNC were actively pushing the story. Now the story is starting to become a bit more clear.
John McCain's Pennsylvania communications director told reporters in the state an incendiary version of the hoax story about the attack on a McCain volunteer well before the facts of the case were known or established -- and even told reporters outright that the "B" carved into the victim's cheek stood for "Barack," according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions.
John Verrilli, the news director for KDKA in Pittsburgh, told TPM Election Central that McCain's Pennsylvania campaign communications director gave one of his reporters a detailed version of the attack that included a claim that the alleged attacker said, "You're with the McCain campaign? I'm going to teach you a lesson."
Verrilli also told TPM that the McCain spokesperson had claimed that the "B" stood for Barack. According to Verrilli, the spokesperson also told KDKA that Sarah Palin had called the victim of the alleged attack, who has since admitted the story was a hoax.
The KDKA reporter had called McCain's campaign office for details after seeing the story -- sans details -- teased on Drudge.
It was just too good for them ignore I guess. A politically motivated attack by a black man against a young white woman in what was at one time a swing state. Too good to be actually true as it turns out.
But that didn't stop them from pushing the hell out of what was pretty suspect story from the beginning.
Police sources tell KDKA that a campaign worker has now confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter B in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker.
What is interesting to me is how fast the RNC, the McCain campaign and other GOP operators were working the phones on this story. Hell, Drudge had it up a full 10 minutes before the local Pittsburgh media did.
I believe it was Jon Stewart who asked Scott McClellan a few months ago when McClellan was promoting his book who McClellan was going to vote for in the presidential election. McClellan didn't say it at the time, but you could tell he was undecided.
And now comes his grinning declaration, taped for a new weekend CNN show, "D.L. Hughley Breaks the News," that he has a favorite in the presidential election, and it is not John McCain.
His face lighting up as bright as his French blue shirt, it is clear what he's going to say before he opens his mouth.
"I will be voting for Barack Obama," he declares.
So the week that began when one former top Bush administration figure, former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, endorsed Obama ends with the endorsement of another.
McClellan doesn't have the stature that Powell does, but his vote does show that there are Republicans who are willing to cross party lines and vote for Obama. I know plenty of Republicans and I have heard of a few supporting Obama. The whole unity message resonates with people on both sides of the aisle.
ACORN (ACORN stands for Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now) has faced many smears by the Republican Party in a recent weeks, including by the party's nominee for president Sen. John McCain. Of course, these smears are ridiculous and there are many reasons why they are ridiculous.
Over the last few days, I've had the opportunity to listen in on a press call and a call specifically for bloggers. ACORN is not sitting back and taking these attacks lightly. In fact, they are going on the offensive. They want people to know what ACORN is really about and what ACORN does. As we know in America, it's not hard to misinform millions of people about a certain issue or topic (see Iraq War).
This week, ACORN is dedicated to setting the record straight and more importantly, raise awareness about voter suppression which is a REAL issue that has occurred in two elections (2000 and 2004) that were won by Republican George W. Bush.
Earlier this week during a press call, ACORN brought up a few different eye-opening incidents that are worth mentioning. In New Mexico, the Republicans there challenged the validity of several voters there. Upon further review, these voters were valid. The claims of "voter fraud" were false.
Another issue that ACORN is focusing on is voter suppression involving voters who have had their homes foreclosed. In multiple states, there are efforts underway trying to suppress these voters. One such is Michigan, where the Republicans were trying to purge voters from the rolls using foreclosure lists. Luckily, that attempt was foiled. But we still need to watch for these attempts nationwide.
There has also been a growing hatred for ACORN thanks to the GOP rhetoric and the loud-mouthed antics of John McCain and Sarah Palin. In Wisconsin, a person canvassing for Barack Obama was reportedly attacked by someone who referred to ACORN while physically abusing this individual. There have been break-ins at ACORN headquarters in Boston and Washington state. There have been threats and racism directed at ACORN employees and volunteers, as well as one instance of someone receiving a death threat from an individual who just happened to have "McCain-Palin" on their Facebook page.
This is what ACORN is up against. But they aren't standing down. I will have more on this later.
I will be live blogging tonight's presidential debate beginning at 9 p.m. I will be live blogging using Cover It Live, a live blogging tool that allows you, the reader, to insert your two cents while I blog.
Please join me tonight so we can have a great discussion during the debate and follow along as I live blog tonight's duel between Barack Obama and John McCain.
See, here's the deal -- we're going to win the White House, we're going to win big in the Senate, and we're going to rack up big gains in the House. Republicans know this and are preparing for the worst. Now think of 2004 -- we really thought Kerry was going to pull it off. Remember that? And remember how utterly devastated we were when Bush pulled it off? The pain was so much worse because we expected to win.
So with conservatives bracing for the worse, they won't experience the kind of pain we did. Not unless we deliver a defeat even worse than their worst nightmares. And I'll be honest with you -- I want them to hurt as much as we did. I want their spirits crushed, their backs broken.
So the way we do that is we deliver a defeat worse than they ever imagined. We do that by winning states that have no business turning Blue -- like North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and so on -- states that were easy Bush victories in 2004. We do that by electing a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate. We do that by defeating their leadership, like Mitch McConnell in the Senate. We do that by defeating their heroes, like wingnut go-to hero John Shadegg. We do that by making sure a record number of Americans reject conservative ideology, leaving it utterly discredited.
The day after the election, I want to see an electoral battlefield littered with defeated Republicans, their ranks demoralized, their treasury in heavy debt, and no real leadership to take the helm. I want a vacuum so complete, that a bloody leadership battle between the neocons, theocons, and corporate cons shakes the GOP to its core, and leaves it fractured and ill-equipped to stymie the progressive agenda, much less ramp up for an even bleaker (for them) 2010.
We all remember the merciless pounding the GOP gave us in 2002 and 2004- let's return the favor... and then some. Feel free to post about how you have been working to crush their spirits come e-day.
I received a very interesting e-mail from a progressive blogger in Alaska last night. In that e-mail was a gold mine: The official analysis from the McCain campaign on the investigation that has hounded Sarah Palin in Alaska.
That same blogger followed up with this explanation, which should give you some idea of what this investigation has been like in the state:
I apologize for sending that flaming piece of crap without an explanation. I forget that we have folks in our community outside of Alaska who are not necessarily familiar with all the bizarre antics of the McCain-Palin Campaign up here.
They have taken over our state government. They filed suits against the investigator trying to stop him. They encouraged (through our Palinbot Attorney General) 8 of the witnesses (including Todd Palin himself) to ignore subpoenas to testify. As a result of a Superior Court and then Supreme Court ruling which upheld the validity of the Legislative Council's investigation AND their subpoena power, the criminals then "decided" to testify and Todd Palin filed a huge, long deposition.
It looks like this alleged "report" from the McCain/Palin Campaign is Todd's deposition almost verbatim.
Tomorrow is the presentation of the Monegan Report by independent investigator Stephen Branchflower. Tomorrow, the Legislative Council will vote on whether or not to release it. That's what we've been working on so incredibly hard, for folks to vote to release the report. However, we're working against a slick campaign who are making some serious threats against any Republican who stands against the Governor. They decided to get this piece of crap out first, in hopes that the pressure they've exerted on the Republican Legislators will cause them to quash it and theirs will be the only one.
What I have done is copy and pasted the entire analysis from the McCain campaign below the fold. It amounts to a few pages on paper, so it is lengthy. But it's a very interesting read nonetheless. Keep in mind that this report is straight from the McCain-Palin campaign, so it's going to be loaded with partisan rhetoric and pointing the finger at others.
I read it a few times last night and kept shaking my head throughout. It really is amazing how far the campaign has gone to defend her. My guess is that McCain was so clueless about her that the campaign had no idea she had this scandal in Alaska until after they had picked her. Now they are spending their time (and presumably campaign resources) defending her and her husband.
By the way, why does Todd Palin play such a heavy role in state politics? Imagine if Michelle Paige Paterson was doing the things he was doing. Here in New York, I think there would be an uproar. But in Alaska, it seems to be ignored and not considered a big deal.
Again, the report is below the fold. It's an interesting read if you are curious as to how the McCain campaign is trying to spin this.
Chief Executive magazine's most recent polling of 751 CEOs shows that GOP presidential candidate John McCain is the preferred choice for CEOs. According to the poll, which is featured on the cover of Chief Executive's most recent issue, by a four-to-one margin, CEOs support Senator John McCain over Senator Barack Obama. Moreover, 74 percent of the executives say they fear that an Obama presidency would be disastrous for the country.
...
"I'm not terribly excited about McCain being president, but I'm sure that Obama, if elected, will have a negative impact on business and the economy," said one CEO voicing his lack of enthusiasm for either candidate, but particularly Obama.
In expressing their rejection of Senator Obama, some CEOs who responded to the survey went as far as to say that "some of his programs would bankrupt the country within three years, if implemented." In fact, the poll highlights that Obama's tax policies, which scored the lowest grade in the poll, are particularly unpopular among CEOs.
"Overall, many CEOs are concerned about the future of the U.S. economy and its ability to compete in the global market, but they look to John McCain and hope that this self-described political maverick may yet shake up established thinking and not give into to the tired policies of the past," concluded Kopko.
To follow up on what Robert said about the debate, I also believe that Obama won. But it might be more accurate to say that John McCain defaulted.
McCain almost never used the words "middle class" and made no attempt to bring things down to a kitchen table level. Obama may lack Bill Clinton's genius for turning simple economic questions into bluegrass spoken-word epics about a place called Hope, but he at least has the sense, the empathy, the discipline, the whatever, to use the words "middle class" (he also used the words "food stamps") and talk about household economics like he means it. McCain does not.
The reason for this, I think is clear -- McCain has been well-to-do for his entire life. He's from a wealthy family and he married into a much wealthier one. But his inability to overcome this is a crushing handicap in a race that focuses on economic crisis.
That said, I thought this wasn't a bad debate and that both candidates made thoughtful points about foreign policy and some budgetary matters.
(You can read the live blog of the debate below the fold.)
UPDATE: Kos has a nice analysis of the debate tonight. He also critiqued Tom Brokaw's performance. At the end, Brokaw gave up. He wasn't as intent on sticking to the plan as he was during the first 45 minutes. The format is stupid. Jim Lehrer made for a great moderator because he came in there with a "who cares?" attitude. Brokaw shouldn't have played by the rules. He needed to be a lot looser than he was.
Barack Obama could afford a tie tonight. John McCain could not. The good news for Obama was that it wasn't a tie tonight. The bad news for McCain is that, well, it wasn't a tie tonight.
Obama won this debate tonight. Whenever the economy is front and center, Obama wins. McCain was asked the same questions Obama was and you could tell that he tried to turn them on things that made him more comfortable. One question led McCain to respond with "energy independence" as a way to address the economy. I guess you can say that energy independence is one way (a small way) to address the economy, but it's not THE way to address it. McCain was weak on these questions while Obama was very strong.
McCain was on the attack tonight. Rachel Maddow of MSNBC just said. Obama wasn't looking for a fight. McCain was. McCain needs to fight or he doesn't stand a chance. That is the reason we have seen these attacks lately. If they don't fight and go negative, they don't stand a chance. That's what we know about Republicans.
Obama was strong on every issue and McCain wasn't. McCain went on the attack even on an issue of strength like foreign policy. It's one thing to go on the attack when you're talking about the economy. But it's another when you are talking about an issue that is considered one of your strong points and you still have to resort to attacks. That shows weakness.
One last note: I can't help but notice that at the end of the debate Barack and Michelle Obama stuck around and have greeted everyone seated at this town hall debate. They are taking pictures with people, shaking hands and talking with these people. John and Cindy McCain are gone. That shows what kind of candidates we are dealing with. The elitists hit the road. The charismatic couple that is the future President and First Lady stuck around to talk with voters.
I thought it was a great debate for Obama. He did very well. He has had a lot of practice and it shows. McCain was weak and had to resort to attacks. Obama wins his second debate, while McCain is left picking up the pieces of his crumbling campaign.
As Phillip discussed the freakjobs who attend McCain/Palin rallies and how the remaining weeks of the campaign are going to see a desperate hail mary of character assasination against Barack Obama by the GOP, JedReport has put out a good video on the actually relevant terrorist associations of Miss Teen South CarolinaDan QuayleWilliam Henry Gist (look it up) Sarah Palin- enjoy:
With their campaign tanking across the board along with the economy, the McCain campaign is taking off the gloves, as the say, or, perhaps, the hoods
Worse, Palin's routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her "less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media." At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, "Sit down, boy."
...
The reception had been better in Clearwater, where Palin, speaking to a sea of "Palin Power" and "Sarahcuda" T-shirts, tried to link Obama to the 1960s Weather Underground. "One of his earliest supporters is a man named Bill Ayers," she said. ("Boooo!" said the crowd.) "And, according to the New York Times, he was a domestic terrorist and part of a group that, quote, 'launched a campaign of bombings that would target the Pentagon and our U.S. Capitol,' " she continued. ("Boooo!" the crowd repeated.)
"Kill him!" proposed one man in the audience.
6 months ago, I figured that this would be a desperately ugly and mean campaign twinged with not so subtle racist overtones. I have been pleased that, despite some exceptions, it hasn't been as bad as I had feared. Now, with the race slipping away from them, I'm afraid that the racist underbelly of the GOP is going to be roused once again. This is just the beginning. The next four weeks are going to be disgusting.
I guess we now know why the McCain campaign wanted to keep the press from mingling with their supporters at those rallies in Florida yesterday, which just goes to show that this wasn't an accident. This wasn't just some racist wackjobs infiltrating their events. The campaign is stoking this crap and they are doing so for a reason.
It's their last best shot and it's all they've got left.
I continue to believe that voting for or against the bailout plan won't help or hurt Congressional candidates very much in November. A new Democracy Corps poll shows a small plurality in of voters in key districts favoring the bailout. An earlier ABC poll showed a small plurality of voters opposing it.
On the other hand, the financial crisis is a huge issue. Polls have shifted by about five points in favor of Democrats across the board -- in House, Senate, and presidential races -- since the crisis became apparent a few weeks ago.
So to make this simple: voters blame Republicans for causing the crisis but not necessarily for their reaction to it.
Randy Kuhl's sponsorship of an amendment that would have allowed hedge funds to take larger positions in pensions is typical of the kind of willy-nilly deregulation that helped lead to this disaster. If the DCCC has any sense, they will run ads against Kuhl about this.
We can expect McCain's role as one of the so-called Keating Five (the five Senators who were said to have been improperly influenced by Keating) to become an important issue in the last few weeks of this campaign. It certainly should. A new documentary about this will reportedly appear at the site Keating Economics tomorrow. Here's a trailer for it.
My opinion, now and then: all of the important battlegrounds, with the possible exception of New Hampshire and one of the districts in Maine (which splits its electoral votes), will be states that Bush won last time.
