NY-23: Oot Actively Seeking Democratic Nod

by: robert.harding

Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 09:08:50 AM EDT

Now with McHugh out of the picture, Oot is very interested in getting the Democratic nomination for the seat.

In a letter to supporters, Oot said he is "going to try to secure the nomination" and is confident that if he can get the nomination from party leaders, he can win the race.

The full letter is below the fold, but here is an excerpt from the letter:

Dear Family and Friends,  

Well, it's been a busy week,  so I thought I should write you and bring you up to date.  

I am going to try to secure the nomination as the Democratic candidate for Congress in the 23rd District.

We are moving a step at a time and I will consult with my family and advisors to evaluate our position at every step.  

As you know, 21 months ago, my family and I set out on a journey motivated entirely by two things, our frustration with the Bush Administration and their collaborators in Congress and a strong desire to improve the quality of life, economic and otherwise, of the citizens of this District.  

Soon, we were joined by you, and all of us continued that journey and tried to make history by working to bring change to the the 23rd District.

Despite the outcome of the election, it's hard to say we lost.  The fact is that with very little money and the strong support of  volunteers like you, almost 70,000 voters joined with us in that effort. In Madison County we received 45% of the vote, in Clinton County 44% and in Franklin County 43%.

Now McHugh is leaving; it's an entirely different situation.  The seat will soon be vacant and as I said, I want the nomination as the candidate for the open seat.

Oot wasn't a very good fundraiser the last time around. His campaign finance filings show that he raised over $100,000 for a congressional race. That isn't a lot of money, especially for a district that spans 11 counties. He attributes this to the other races happening around him, including the congressional races in NY-24 and NY-25, but I don't think it's the races as much as it was an inability to raise money or being inexperienced in the area of fundraising.

In addition to that, running against McHugh is tough. He received bi-partisan support over the years and that made it difficult for any Democrat to run against him. So Oot had that going against him too. It wasn't a race that Oot was going to win on his first try.

It is going to take a lot of money to win this race. We saw in NY-20 that a lot of money was spent by both sides. The race in NY-23 won't be any different. We still have time before the race is even announced (McHugh is going to have to wait a few weeks before being confirmed, maybe even a month) but it's going to take a lot of effort to win this. Is Mike Oot the guy? On paper, probably not.

But who knows what would happen with the state party paying attention and helping Oot. That could be a difference-maker. Enter the DCCC and things get more interesting.

I wouldn't rule Oot out completely. But based on past history, he's going to have to show why he would be a great candidate for a special election and show that he can improve in his weak areas.

NY-23: Where The Race Stands In The 23rd

by: robert.harding

Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 07:48:01 AM EDT

But with an open seat and a special election coming up, speculation is growing about who are possible candidates for the race and there have been a number of reports telling us who is out.

One person who can't avoid the speculation is Sen. Darrel Aubertine. Aubertine has been mentioned from the very beginning as a possible Democratic candidate for this seat. He hasn't ruled out a run, but such a run (if he were to win) would put the New York State Senate majority in jeopardy.

But if the Democrats want to win this seat, Aubertine wouldn't be a bad pick. He has proven that he can win in the North Country and a portion of the district (about one-third of the registered voters, give or take) overlaps with his state senate district. So it would be tough for him not to run, but as we learned with Scott Murphy, if the candidate is smart and willing to work hard, we have a chance either way.

On the Republican side, their pool is growing. The National Journal lists 12 Republicans who are still in the running. That list includes Assemblywoman DeDe Scozzafava, who has drawn the ire of conservatives due to her support of marriage equality. They are already saying that if she is the nominee, she will have a tough time getting the Conservative Party line, which a Republican candidate rarely goes without in New York State.

Other candidates include a businessman (Ex-Deutsche Bank Managing Director Matt Doheny) who could self-finance a race, something that might interest the Republicans. Sen. Joe Griffo is still considering a run. His senate district overlaps with the congressional district and considering his age, would not be a bad choice to replace McHugh. McHugh's chief of staff Robert Taub has also been mentioned since the very beginning as a possible heir to the seat.

There are no Democrats out of the race, although I have heard rumblings that state Chairwoman June O'Neill would not run. There are a few Republicans out, according to the National Journal. Former Sen. Jim Wright is out. We already knew Sen. Betty Little was out. And the 2006 nominee from NY-24, Ray Meier, reconsidered and said he was not interested in running.

At this point, it is clear who the favorite on the Democrats' side is. On the Republican side, it's not too clear. It seems like Scozzafava's name has been mentioned a lot and that could mean something, but I have heard Griffo's name mentioned just as much, along with Taub.

I could see both sides going for members of the business community, which would make this race wide open. If this race is between elected officials, I think we would have a better idea of where the race stands. But with businesspeople involved, we will have no idea how well (or how poorly) they will perform. It would be an interesting race from that aspect.

NY-23: 23rd Congressional District Race At A Glance

by: robert.harding

Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 10:44:22 AM EDT

CQPolitics has more on the possible contenders for both parties.

But other Democrats pointed to state Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine, Syracuse attorney Daniel J. French, 2008 nominee Michael P. Oot, state party Chairwoman June O'Neill and John Rhodes, who considered a 2008 run, as possible contenders.

"I'm interested," French, a former aide to the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., said in a telephone interview.

Though he lives outside the district, he was raised in it, earned a bachelor's degree at the State University of New York in Oswego and worked as a U.S. attorney there.

Aubertine, of Watertown, won a 2008 special election for a Senate district based an hour or so from Ottawa, Canada, that covers all of two counties in McHugh's district and part of a third.

But even an Aubertine victory could be a net loss for national Democrats. New York is set to lose at least one seat in the reapportionment of congressional districts after next year's census, and his influence in the state Senate may be more valuable to the party than an extra vote in the U.S. House that could disappear after the 2012 election.

For that reason, several Democrats said they thought it was unlikely that Aubertine would run.

"It's too early to comment right now," said Aubertine's spokesman, Drew Mangione. "The senator is committed to his work in the New York state Senate."

A slew of Republican names also surfaced Tuesday: Assembly members Will Barclay, who lost to Aubertine for the Senate seat, Janet L. Duprey and Dede Scozzafava; Terry Gach, vice president of institutional advancement at the Trudeau Institute; Michael F. Joyce, the head of Hargrave Custom Yachts; former state Sen. Jim Wright; and Franklin County District Attorney Derek Champagne.

On the Democratic side, a lot of attention has been paid to Aubertine. If we had a 33 to 29 majority in the New York State Senate, it would be an easier decision. But with a 32 to 30 majority, the decision becomes a much more difficult one. Losing Aubertine could mean losing his seat, leading to a split in the Senate and a legislative nightmare.

June O'Neill could be an intriguing choice. She hails from St. Lawrence County and is very familiar with the North Country. Having her run would involve little risk. She doesn't hold a seat in the state Legislature, so we don't have to worry about another special election. Her candidacy would certainly bring the state party together and a huge effort would be made to elect her (not that such an effort wouldn't be put forth for any other candidate, but when it's the state party chair, you might see an outpouring of support from Democrats all over the state).

On the Republican side, none of those names are surprising. Most of them are currently serving as elected officials and a few of them are businessmen. It isn't a secret that the Republicans have a larger bench (they have more elected officials in the region) but they don't have anyone that sticks out as a candidate that is sure to win it.

The enrollment figures for the district aren't too bad. The Republicans do have an enrollment edge over Democrats, but with the minor party lines and blanks, that edge can be erased.

Here is the enrollment breakdown throughout the district (as of April 1):

23rd Congressional District Enrollment
DEMOCRATS: 120,887
REPUBLICANS: 167,272
INDEPENDENTS: 19,619
CONSERVATIVES: 5,561
WORKING FAMILIES: 1,482
GREEN: 911
LIBERTARIAN: 77
SOCIALISTS: 3
BLANKS: 76,194
TOTAL: 392,006

By comparison, NY-20 had a greater disparity between Democrats and Republicans, yet we still managed to win. If we can mobilize our base and get our voters out and find some supporters among the minor parties and blanks, we can win this. The Republicans will try to lower expectations, but on paper, they should win this race. However, if we do what we did in NY-20, we can win this. Having a solid candidate will only makes thing better for us and improve our chances in a special election.

NY-23: With McHugh Gone, Who Runs For Seat?

by: robert.harding

Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 10:50:06 AM EDT

Rep. John McHugh has been named to serve as President Obama's Secretary of the Army, which means his 23rd congressional district seat will become vacant.

So who runs for this seat? I have yet to hear anything for certain on both sides, but a look at the elected officials in that area could raise some possibilities.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Darrel Aubertine comes to mind. There are pros and cons to that. Aubertine has proven he can win a race in a very Republican district. He could do it again in NY-23. But losing Aubertine in the New York State Senate could mean that his 48th Senate District seat goes back to the Republicans, which would give the Senate a 31-31 split and create a legislative mess.

On the Republican side, there are more options. NY-23 also includes many Republican Assembly and Senate districts. Sen. Joe Griffo is one possibility. He is younger than most of his fellow Senate Republicans and could see this as an opportunity to move up the ladder. Sen. Elizabeth Little is another possibility and while she is older, she does have more state-level experience than Griffo does. Griffo is a former mayor (he served as mayor of Rome) and a former county legislator. Little has served in both houses of the New York State Legislature over the last 13 years.

There are several possibilities in the New York State Assembly, more for the Republicans than Democrats.

So far though, there aren't any takers. It is still early and there will be a process involved to select candidates for the special election. This is a tough seat - one of the most Republican seats in the state - but having it open gives us a better chance of winning.  

Another Republican House seat opens up

by: Dan Jacoby

Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 10:08:38 AM EDT

Let the speculation begin -- who would run, and who is likely to win?  I refuse to speculate, because I have no knowledge of that district, but someone on this website must know something.

NY-23, SD-48: McHugh To Run Against Aubertine?

by: robert.harding

Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 18:23:41 PM EDT

Now there are rumors circulating that Rep. John McHugh will not seek reelection for his House seat in New York's 23rd congressional district.

From The Capitol:

Bipartisan sources have confirmed that the eight term congressman's name is rising to the top of the list to challenge Aubertine, who won the Senate seat in a special election last month. McHugh held this Senate seat for eight years before going to Congress in 1992.

McHugh's high name recognition, and the large Republican make-up in the district, would immediately vault a race between him and Aubertine to the top of most competitive Senate races in a year when Democrats are two seats from claiming the majority for the first time since 1965. McHugh, who has been the subject of retirement rumors for several years, is said to be tired of the Washington commute.

...

McHugh's campaign spokesman said his boss was planning to seek another term this year and was unsure where speculation about a State Senate race would have come from. He said McHugh has not given indication of any worry over the redistricting process.

"Having served in the New York State Senate, he has the utmost respect for that body," McHugh spokesman John Sweeney said. "He has the fullest intention of running for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives again."

Sweeney noted that McHugh, a former chairman of the Postal Affairs Subcommittee, has informed his Republican colleagues of his interest in becoming the top Republican, whether as chair or ranking member, on the House Armed Services Committee, where he has served since arriving in Washington.

It shows you how desperate the Republicans are to retain the Senate when they want a congressman to run against Aubertine. I think the GOP needs to face facts: Aubertine is a great fit for that seat. They are better off investing their energy elsewhere - wherever that might be.  

McHugh Nixes Retirement Talk, Kind Of

by: phillip anderson

Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 17:38:57 PM EDT

Not so McHugh says to the godawful Politico:

John McHugh: I'm not going anywhere

"Had any reporter bothered at any time to ask, I would have told them quite simply that at this time, I fully expect to be a candidate for re-election in 2008," New York Rep. John M. McHugh said in the release. "I have never told anyone otherwise and I have never at any time told anyone I was thinking of retiring and, as the Washington Post put it, 'wanting to go home.'

The rumor-mill on Capitol Hill had the New York Republican calling it quits at the conclusion of his eighth-term in the House, joining a group of fellow moderates who have grown weary of the travel, the partisanship and the grind of tough reelection fight every two years. But not so, the veteran Republican said.

"My campaign is going forward on those matters necessary to wage another successful effort and when the time comes, we will be ready," McHugh said.

There's something about that language though and I'm not the only one who noticed.

Although, it's worth noting that "at this time," "fully expect" and "going forward" often amount to weasel words that give lawmakers some wiggle room to change their minds.

It sounds like a strong statement, except that, ya know, it isn't.

On Veteran's Issues McHugh (NY-23) McSucks

by: phillip anderson

Fri Mar 16, 2007 at 14:01:49 PM EDT

The scandal and national disgrace surrounding the care received by some wounded veterans at Walter Reed Medical Center, the "crown jewel of military medicine", has garnered much attention in recent weeks and a number of high ranking folks have lost their jobs. This is as it should be. But, will there also be accountability for the man who was responsible for Congressional oversight of military healthcare? How clueless (or indifferent) was McHugh? In 2004, he and his subcommittee took a one day tour of Walter Reed. They didn't even issue a report. "Support the troops", my ass.

Howie Klein had this to say about McHugh:

For one thing McHugh has a perfect voting record when it comes to health care for veterans and active militray personnel-- a perfect zero. In recent years there have been a dozen roll call votes on health care issues for our vets and military servicemen and McHugh voted against their interests every single time.

Clint from Watertown says McHugh "was in charge of the oversight committee for the well being of our troops at Walter Reed and all the medical facilities in the system. He failed our men and women in those facilities and he failed his constituents and he failed America. If he were in Japan, he would have commited sepaku. In our part of the world, if he was a man he would resign."

Several of McHugh's constituents, North Country Democracy for America, are planning a peaceful demonstration on March 17 to help expose his incomptenece and callousness. In 2002 McHugh was returned to Congress without opposition. In 2004 anti-war activist Robert Johnson opposed him and got 29% of the vote. Last year Johnson took 37% of the vote. Let's call that a trend-- in a marginally Republican district. Johnson forced McHugh to spend three-quarters of a million dollars to retain his seat, far more than he's ever had to spend before. It isn't unreasonable to assume that when folks in the North Country, regardless of politics, find out about McHugh's role in this shameful affair they will agree that it is time for their rubber stamp congressmen to bounce into an entirely different line of work.

Agreed.