1199 SEIU United Healthcare Workers East will announce their endorsement of incumbent State Senator Serphin Maltese for re-election tomorrow...
(snip)
Depending on what 1199 will do for Maltese, this could be very helpful to the incumbent senator. There are many hospitals and health care workers in the district, and 1199 is not scarce of resources - both in terms of dollars and manpower.
Yes, that's Serph Maltese, the ultra conservatve Republican from Queens. As usual,
Bouldin puts it best:
The Siena polls released today have created quite the buzz. No one said this New York State Senate fight would be easy, but it certainly is quite intriguing. These polls showed that these races are going to be very competitive in some places and not-so competitive in others.
But how seriously should we take these polls? Let's use this disclaimer from the poll to get this analysis started:
These SRI surveys were conducted from September 11-17, 2008 by telephone calls to likely registered voters in each State Senate district. For the 3rd SD, 405 voters were called, with a margin of error of + 4.9 percentage points. For the 7th SD, 402 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9. For the 15th SD, 401 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9. For the 48th SD, 437 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 56th SD, 429 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 61st SD, 450 voters were called, margin of error + 4.6. Data was statistically adjusted by respondent age - and in the 3rd SD, party - to match likely voters.
Phillip mentioned the high margin of error earlier. I would also like to point out that only 400-plus voters were surveyed in each district. That is a very small sample when you take into consideration how many voters each senate district contains.
There also some questions I had after looking at the crosstabulations for each poll. Take SD-56's crosstabs, for example. Sen. Joe Robach had a favorable rating in Greece/Parma of 71 percent. That is Robach's turf, but 71 percent still seems high to me considering Rick Dollinger had a 56 percent favorable rating on his turf in Brighton. Those numbers tell me that when they conducted this poll and especially when they called voters in Greece, they called more Republicans than Democrats. That Greece/Parma portion of the poll just seems to be inflated to me. This race isn't a double-digit race. We are talking single-digits, if not a dead heat.
The SD-3 crosstabs also boggle my mind. Trunzo is viewed favorably by 54 percent of Democrats? Really? That seems very high to me, especially since this guy is in hiding somewhere. Also, Trunzo is viewed more favorably than Brian Foley in Foley's hometown of Brookhaven. That doesn't sound right to me. And Trunzo is viewed more favorably among people ages 18 to 34? I'll have to take you word for it.
I will echo what Phillip said earlier and that is take these results with a grain of salt. Overall, I think SD-15 and SD-61 are about right. It would make sense that both of those races are tied at the moment. I do think SD-3 is much closer than that and I would even bet Foley is leading. The SD-56 poll also doesn't show how close that race truly is. Again, it depends on your sample. If your sample leans one way or another, that's the way the poll will lean. I'm not accusing Siena of anything (they do great work there) but the sample you have is the sample you work with.
What the Siena polls did tell us today is that we have a fight on our hands. But it also gave the Republicans a nice warning shot across the bow. We are coming for them with everything we have. To think, we could have four races (SD-3, SD-15, SD-56 and SD-61) in play and the Republicans are spending their resources in two races (SD-7 and SD-48) where our incumbent senators are up by double-digits.
November 4 is going to be very, very good for us. But we still need to work hard. There are other races throughout the state we should keep an eye on and work just as hard in. This election is ours for the taking. So let's take it.
I like four of these races they are pulling. I am eager to see the poll for Foley vs. Trunzo out on Long Island. That poll should tell us how Trunzo's faceless campaign is working out for him.
I also like the polling for Addabbo vs. Maltese, Dollinger vs. Robach and Mesi vs. Ranzenhofer. Those are three races we can win. The poll results should tell us how we stand at this point and what we have to do to make these end up in our column.
I do think Siena wasted their time polling SD-7 and SD-48. I might be able to understand SD-48, but I have yet to see anything from the GOP or Renzi to show me that they really want SD-48 back. And polling SD-7 is a waste, considering the only reason this race is being talked about is Dean Skelos and his vendetta against Sen. Johnson. Skelos needs to get over himself. I rated SD-7 "safe Democratic" for a reason. Barbara Donno is the Sarah Palin of New York State politics. Donno is going nowhere but the Republicans are spending money on her campaign like she was a real contender.
It is safe to predict that these polls tomorrow will show most of these races to be close. The one sleeper could be SD-61. Joe Mesi has name recognition, which is something Ranzenhofer lacks. Staunch Republicans might know who Ranzenhofer is, but the low information Republican males in the district probably don't care who Ranzenhofer is. But they know who Joe Mesi is and they would vote for Joe Mesi.
The three big races for us are SD-3, SD-15 and SD-56. All three should show tight races, although SD-3 might be leaning more towards Foley. Foley is out and about in the district and has made himself very visible. Trunzo hasn't done that. That might not be reflected in this poll, but it will be reflected in the only poll that matters on November 4.
Smith and the candidates discussed why New York needs a change in the state senate. Republicans have ruled the upper house for over 40 years and the time for addressing the concerns of working families is now. The Republicans have not done this. The Democrats will strive to do this.
(CONTRIBUTED PHOTO: Pictured, from left, are: Jim Gennaro, Malcolm Smith, Joe Mesi at the podium, Hiram Monserrate and Joseph Addabbo. Dan Squadron is directly behind Mesi, although you can't completely see him.)
Here are some of the remarks from the candidates today. I know Phillip said he was hoping to go, so maybe he will have more for us later.
"Albany has lost touch with the needs of working people, and the state is struggling. We've got to get serious about the rising cost of living, unequal distribution of education aid, tax breaks for corporations which outsource jobs and drain the tax base, and a culture of out of control spending and pork barrel promises which has supplanted fiscal responsibility. How many more jobs must we loose until labor and small businesses get the support they need to succeed? How many more seniors should have to go bankrupt before their heath insurance finally kicks in? And how many more years do our kids need to suffer before the City sees the CFE money we were promised 13 years ago. Enough is enough. Albany is out of touch and time is up," said Councilman Joe Addabbo (SD-15).
"Right now, New Yorkers have an historic opportunity to change their day-to-day lives for the better by electing fresh new leadership to the State Senate," said Councilman Jim Gennaro (SD-11), who Chairs the Environmental Protection Committee in the City Council and has become recognized as one of the most prolific author of green legislation in the state. "I'm proud to be part of Senate Democratic Leader Malcolm Smith's energetic and progressive slate of candidates as we run to bring better schools, better health care, better transportation, a more sustainable environment and a state budget that's more responsible and fair for all New Yorkers. The days of a dysfunctional, unresponsive state government promise to be over with our success in November."
Kristin McElroy (SD-6) said "I'm proud to be a Democratic candidate for State Senate this year, because the time has come for Albany to provide real leadership on the issues facing New York's families. Under the Republican majority, property taxes have skyrocketed and health care and energy costs have grown out of control. I look forward to serving on a State Senate led by a Democratic majority that will work with the Governor and the State Assembly to get New York moving in the right direction."
This is a great group of candidates we have statewide this year. We have some seats that are more competitive than others, but that doesn't mean a surprise (or two or three) can't be in the works. There are a few sleeper races that are on my mind that are winnable races this year.
New York needs leadership. They don't need the same lip service they have received from the Republicans for the last 40-plus years. It's time for a change. It's time for a Democratic New York State Senate.
ANALYSIS SD-11 - Rating changed to Leans Republican: The rating was altered after research into this district and Sen. Padavan. The enrollment advantage goes to the Democrats and Jim Gennaro can run a strong campaign. But there is a reason Padavan has won this district over and over again. Is he vulnerable? To some extent he is. It is a Democratic year in a predominantly Democratic district so he should worry. His incumbency isn't in total danger though.
SD-25 - Primary between Connor and Squadron: The winner of the general will be a Democrat. The question is which one? Will it be the veteran Connor? Or will it be the challenger Squadron, who is mounting a very serious challenge to Connor's incumbent.
SD-61 - Three way Democratic primary: This is another important primary because this seat could turn blue in November. Ratzenhofer is a Republican in a slightly Republican district, but this is not a safe seat for the GOP. A Democrat can win this seat. Now we just need to settle a three-way Democratic contest before moving forward.
Joseph Addabbo will need plenty of support to beat Republican Sen. Serf Maltese in November. He also is in a primary with Albert Baldeo, who narrowly lost to Maltese in 2006.
In front of a cheering crowd at a rally at the Verizon building in lower Manhattan, the CommunicationWorkers of America, District 1 reiterated their endorsement of City Councilman Joseph Addabbo Jr., who is running for for the 15th state Senate District seat.
"This is the guy to vote for, he's here for us," said CWA District 1 Vice President Chris Shelton.As chairman of the City Council's Civil Service and Labor Committee,Addabbo condemned outsourcing and joined the callfor fair pay and health care benefits.
"We need to keep jobs in New York, and we need to keep workingfamilies in New York," he said. "The rising cost of living has made life in New York near impossible, and I will fight for fair pay.
"I will fight forpaid family leave, increased aid for education so our children can getthe skills they need for the 21st century, and health care coveragefor our working men and women. I stand with labor here today, and withyour support, next year in Albany."
This is a big race and a race that we can win. Maltese is vulnerable. He barely held on to win in 2006 and will face a serious challenge for his incumbency again this November.
CapCon is reporting that State Senator Serphin Maltese (a.k.a Mr. 45%) is going to air this ad in Queens, starting Monday:
The ad is supposed to highlight Maltese's "tough on crime" stances. It starts with some really predictable and dry reactionary babbling about the ACLU and, gasp, public defenders- as if we should just do away with this annoying, inconvenient liberal crap.
The ad then talks about Maltese sponsoring a couple of anti-crime bills, like cracking down on sexual predators.
But the real issue with Maltese is that his voting record on guns is more like Sam Brownback than someone who should be representing a district in Queens, NYC.
The good people at GunFreeKids.org just came out with a rap sheet on Mr. Maltese, highlighting his recent sycophancy to the gun lobby:
In 2008, Sen. Maltese declined an opportunity to sponsor legislation to assist law enforcement in their efforts to solve gun-related crimes. The legislation, passed by the Assembly as A.9819-A), would mandate that all new semi-automatic pistols manufactured, sold or brought into New York State be equipped with microstamping technology to aid law enforcement in solving gun-related crimes.
Further back, he also had these atrocious votes:
1997 (S.5498) 5-year renewable handgun permits for Westchester County. Supported by GunFreeKids
Maltese voted NO (bill passed Senate and signed into law)
1998 (S.397) Would make it easier to obtain a concealed carry weapon permit. Opposed by GunFreeKids
Maltese Voted YES (bill passed by the Senate only)
2000 (S.8234) Nine measures, including assault weapons ban, ballistic imaging, closing of gun show loophole, age 21 to possess or own handgun, safety locks to be sold with all guns and 24 hour reporting of all lost & stolen guns. Supported by GunFreeKids
Maltese, only member of NYC delegation to VOTE NO (bill passed by both houses and signed into law)
Sen. Maltese's desperation is only matched by his shamelessness. To have a voting record like this, which time and again has handicapped law enforcement's efforts to stop the traffic of illegal guns and identify criminals who use guns for crime, and then lie to his constituents about being tough on crime is the kind of rediculous crap that he shouldn't be allowed to get away with anymore. When it comes to crime, not only is Mr. Maltese weak and two-sided, he is also way, way out of touch with his district. For shame, Senator.
The not-so surprising picks include Democrats Rick Dollinger (SD-56), Kathy Konst (SD-59) and Joe Mesi (SD-61). Golisano will also be backing Democrat David Nachbar (SD-55).
Golisano will also reach outside of his Western New York comfort zone to back Democrats Joseph Addabbo (SD-15) and Sen. Darrel Aubertine (SD-48).
The one interesting choice is Golisano's reported support going to Sen. James Seward. This is a very disappointing choice should Golisano follow through with it. Don Barber is the much better option and the strongest candidate in SD-51.
Two key Democratic primaries Golisano has either decided not to enter or hasn't decided on who to back are AD-64 and SD-25. According to The Capitol, Golisano will not get involved in the primary between Sen. Martin Connor and Daniel Squadron. However, he has not decided on AD-64 or, as The Capitol put it, hasn't given any "serious consideration" of opposing Sheldon Silver by giving to one of his two primary opponents: Paul Newell and Luke Henry.
One other race to watch is SD-3. Golisano is said to be ready to oppose Sen. Caesar Trunzo but has not decided on who to back: Brian Foley or Jimmy Dahroug. If Golisano gives to Foley, that is an open and shut case. If Golisano gives to Dahroug, it's a whole new ball game.
I am not too thrilled with Golisano backing Seward over Barber. Actually, that is really disappointing. How can you back all Democrats and then decide you want to back Seward? There has got to be something more to that story.
Five Democratic New York State Senate candidates united today to issue a letter to their respective opponents calling on them to pass a property tax cap.
SD-3 Democratic candidate Brian Foley, SD-6 Democratic candidate Kristen McElroy, SD-15 Democratic candidate Joseph Addabbo, SD-55 Democratic candidate David Nachbar and SD-56 Democratic candidate Rick Dollinger all co-authored a letter to their respective opponents and current state senators asking them to pass a property tax cap.
Here is that letter:
Dear Senators Robach, Alesi, Maltese, Hannon and Trunzo:
With bipartisan acknowledgement that middle class New Yorkers are suffering under an untenable property tax burden, we were greatly disappointed that you and your Republican colleagues rejected, without debate or discussion, all of the recommendations of the New York State Commission on Property Tax Relief.
We have watched as the Republican Senate, in its usual fashion, has produced a great volume of speeches, press releases and taxpayer-funded mailings but has yet to actually get anything done as far as easing families' tax burden. This is unacceptable.
People are desperate for relief and want some sort of tax cap. Relief for local governments from unfunded mandates, which directly drive up our property taxes, is long overdue. And one of the most important elements of the Commission's recommendations, the property tax circuit breaker, would introduce an element of tax fairness into the current system of local taxation.
The bottom line is this: Middle class and working families need property tax relief now.
Cutting property taxes through an expanded circuit breaker would provide relief to those who need it most and create a much fairer system of taxes, as the tax breaks would be focused on middle class families rather than the wealthiest homeowners in a community. Capping people's property taxes based on income, like the circuit breaker does, would give real relief, right now, instead of more political gimmicks.
We understand that these are difficult issues, but it's your job to deal with difficult issues. Unfortunately, you have refused to even bring these issues up for a debate or vote in the Senate. New York's beleaguered taxpayers deserve better.
We urge you to act on the Commission's recommendations before you start your summer vacation next week. Legislators must listen to New Yorkers who are at the breaking point: New York State must pass a circuit breaker to cut the amount working families are paying in property taxes, and you must give local governments and taxpayers relief from the unfunded mandates you've passed over the years.
Doing nothing simply cannot be an option now. If you can't find the strength to be a leader on this issue now; if you do not have the integrity to stand up and fight for what is necessary and right; if you are willing to bow down and accept continued failure on this critical issue, it is time for you (and the voters who elected you) to reconsider your career as a State Senator.
Sincerely,
Joseph Addabbo, Richard Dollinger, Brian Foley, Kristen McElroy and David Nachbar
To my knowledge, none of these Democratic candidates have fully functioning websites. Dollinger does have one "coming soon" but the rest don't have anything, at least that I can find.
Sometimes I wish I could live in Republican "reality." Things must really be nice there. The war in Iraq is an unqualified success, there's no reason to worry about global warming, and the nation's elites will ensure the economy works for everybody.
Also in Republican "reality," a 30-year incumbent State Senator who is polling 45% in his district has reason to be happy because that is better than expected.
In case you're curious about what the complete poll reveals that in a 3-way matchup between Maltese, D-Councilman Addabbo, and D/I Albert Baldeo, the numbers are 45%-18%-3%, respectively.
And on top of this, the poll assumes that Baldeo does lose the Democratic primary and runs as an independent.
Further on top of this, this poll was conducted by John McLaughlin & Associates, which is a Republican firm, and we all know that partisan firms on both sides choose selective sample criteria that make their respective candidates look better.
AND, 35% of voters are undecided in a district where there are roughly 72,000 Democrats to roughly 30,000 Republicans. And did I mention that there will be presidential-year election turnout in a very blue city?
If this poll indicates anything, it's that Serph's up.
Don't let the door hit you on the way out, Senator.
Smith and the candidates discussed why New York needs a change in the state senate. Republicans have ruled the upper house for over 40 years and the time for addressing the concerns of working families is now. The Republicans have not done this. The Democrats will strive to do this.
