David Paterson has been awfully busy over the last week or so and today is no different. He is headlining a rally in Hempstead at this hour where he is formally endorsing SD-6 challenger Kristen McElroy. He has also recorded a robo call for Senator Bill Stachowski that focuses on economic issues. You can listen to the call here:
The new Siena Polls are hot off the presses an things look pretty good for Dems across the state. In fact, if these numbers are correct and the election wre held today, the GOP would lose it's Senate majority.
The biggest numbers to pop out is the lead Brian Foley has over Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) and the huge comeback by incumbent Dem Bill Stachowski. Foley leads Trunzo by a whopping 22 points and Stachowski has turned a 13 point deficit into a 4 point lead.
A rundown:
3rd SD - Suffolk County - Caesar Trunzo (R, incumbent) vs. Brian Foley (D)
Foley has a 56-34 percent lead over Trunzo. Trunzo led 46-40 percent in the previous Siena New York Poll. While Foley has picked up a little more support among Democrats, he has cut Trunzo's lead among Republican voters to 53-39 percent, down dramatically from 71-16 percent. Additionally, Foley has opened up a 63-27 percent lead among independent voters, up from 43-40 percent previously.
Foley has expanded a two-point lead in Brookhaven to a 12-point lead, and reversed 12-point deficit in Islip and turned it into 30-point lead. Where Trunzo had a nine-point lead among voters 55-years of age and older, Foley now leads with those voters 52-40 percent. Foley leads by 13 points with men and 30 points with women. The only demographic group in which Trunzo leads is among Republicans.
If Foley leads by even 10 points in Trunzo's Islip backyard, this thing is over. The poll shows a 30 point lead. And before the GOoPs start screaming about the poll sample, look at the Obama/McCain numbers. They are essentially dead even. It's not like they are only polling Dems.
6th SD - Nassau County - Kemp Hannon (R, incumbent) vs. Kristen McElroy (D)
Hannon has a commanding 56-30 percent lead, in a district that is virtually evenly enrolled between Republicans and Democrats. Hannon has the support of 80 percent of Republicans and picks up the support of nearly one-third of Democrats. McElroy only wins among Democrats 55-32 percent, while only attracting support from 10 percent of Republicans. Hannon leads among independent voters 56-21 percent.
McElroy leads among young voters and those in the Council District 1 section of the Hempstead portion of the Senate district. However, Hannon has much bigger leads in the remainder of the district and has better than 60 percent among voters who are at least 35-years old.
Ouch. Got some work to do here.
15th SD - Queens County - Serph Maltese (R, incumbent) vs. Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D)
Addabbo currently has a slim 45-43 percent lead over Maltese. In the September Siena poll, the two were tied at 42 percent, in this district that has an overwhelmingly Democratic enrollment edge. Maltese has the support of more than three-quarters of Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats. Addabbo leads 61-27 percent among Democrats and picks up the support of 20 percent of Republicans. Maltese leads among independent voters 51-31 percent. Maltese leads by four points with men, while Addabbo has a seven-point lead with women. Addabbo leads in the southern part of the district and Maltese leads in the north.
Maltese is viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 33 percent of voters, down from a 48-16 percent favorable rating previously. Addabbo's favorable rating is 42-30 percent, and was previously 38-20 percent.
Obama leads McCain in this district 57-32 percent, up from 49-31 percent.
48th SD - Oswego/Jefferson/St. Lawrence - Darrel Aubertine (D, incumbent) vs. David Renzi (R)
Aubertine, who had a 51-31 percent lead over Renzi in the last poll, has seen that lead drop to 49-38 percent. Aubertine has the support of nearly three-quarters of Democrats and more than one-third of Republicans in this district with a heavy Republican enrollment edge. Renzi leads 57-35 percent with Republicans, up from 41-37 percent previously, and only gets 13 percent of Democrats. Aubertine is winning among independent voters 49-34 percent, up from 41-37 percent previously. While Renzi has erased a 20-point Aubertine lead in Oswego County, and now leads there 44-37 percent, Aubertine has widened his leads in Jefferson (25 points, up from 16) and St. Lawrence (30 points, up from 27) Counties.
Aubertine is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 31 percent of voters, down from 58-21 percent previously. Renzi has a 40-35 percent favorability rating; previously it was 34-15 percent.
Aubertine is going to fine.
58th SD - Erie County - William Stachowski (D, incumbent) vs. Dennis Delano (R)
Stachowski now has a 47-43 percent lead over Delano, after trailing 49-36 percent in the previous Siena poll in this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge. Stachowski has increased his lead among Democrats to 62-30 percent (up from 51-34 percent). Delano maintains a 63-25 percent lead among Republicans (virtually unchanged from 64-23 percent) and has seen his lead among independent voters fall to 54-36 percent, down from 67-19 percent.
Whereas Delano led in all three sections of the district previously, Stachowski now leads 47-37 percent in Buffalo/Lackawanna, 48-45 percent in Cheektowaga, and 47-44 percent in the southern suburbs. Stachowski has a 12-point lead with men, while Delano has a two-point lead with women. Delano has a significant lead with Protestants. Stachowski leads with Catholics, and has a big lead among younger voters.
Stachowski has a 50-31 percent favorable rating. It had been 39-14 percent. Delano's favorable rating, 53-33 percent, is down from 63-15 percent. Delano continues to have a positive favorable rating with voters of every party, while Stachowski has increased his favorability among Democrats but lost ground with independent voters and saw his favorability among Republicans drop from 35-12 percent to 29-50 percent.
More than half of voters would like to see the Senate controlled by Democrats, and Obama has opened 55-37 percent lead over McCain, up from 45-41 percent previously.
"Senator Stachowski has turned this race around. In four weeks he has erased a 13-point deficit and turned it into a tight four-point lead. Where Delano previously had a much better favorable rating with voters, the two are now viewed by voters in virtually the same light. We will have to wait until Election Day to see if Stachowski continues his momentum to win re-election, or if Delano can turn this race back around again and defeat a 27-year incumbent in this overwhelmingly Democratic district," Greenberg said.
Stach is back. That's what a comeback looks like. I guess the more folks learn about Delano, the less they like what they see. Also, this one of those races that an Obama wave could seriously affect. If that wave reaches Buffalo, Stachowski could end up blowing Delano right out of the water.
61st SD - Erie and Genesee Counties - Michael Ranzenhofer (R) vs. Joseph Mesi (D)
Ranzenhofer has a 47-42 percent lead over Mesi, who had a slimmer 40-38 percent lead in the previous Siena poll, in this district where Republicans have a very small enrollment edge over Democrats. Ranzenhofer leads among Republicans 69-25 percent, up from 59-21 percent. Mesi leads among Democrats 62-29 percent, closer than the previous 63-19 percent. Mesi leads among independent voters 42-37 percent, although Ranzenhofer closed the gap from 43-28 percent. Mesi leads in Tonawanda by seven points (down from 10). Ranzenhofer leads in the Clarence/Newstead/Genesee County portions of the district by 15 points (up from two points), and in Amherst by three points (up a tick from two points).
Ranzenhofer has a 47-26 percent favorable rating, compared to 35-12 percent previously. Mesi's favorable rating is 46-37 percent, compared to 45-18 percent in the previous Siena poll.
While the race has shifted seven points from Mesi to Ranzenhofer, a reverse trend occurred on the question of who voters support to control the Senate. Previously, voters supported Republican control by a 44-38 percent margin, while now a slim plurality, 43-41 percent, support Democratic control. The presidential race also flipped, with McCain's 45-40 percent lead now becoming a 51-42 percent lead for Obama.
"This district is close in enrollment between Republicans and Democrats. The voters are close in their view on which party should control the Senate. The voters have switched their support from McCain to Obama over the last few weeks. And a small Mesi lead has turned into a slightly wider Ranzenhofer lead. Which party's voters turn out in larger numbers on Tuesday may well determine the outcome of this race. Either way, it figures to be a late night as the votes get counted in this race," Greenberg said.
This one may very well come down to Obama's GOTV operation as well. If his voters show in force, I think Mesi wins this thing. Mesi likes to remind folks that he is undefeated. If the Obama wave does indeed materialize in the manner that it appears to be, he'll be able to call himself undefeated still. Give him a hand.
Days after the campaign of Kemp Hannon began airing a truly misleading and dishonest ad using my heavily edited video to twist the words of challenger Kristen McElroy to make it appear that she was saying something that she most certainly wasn't, the McElroy campaign is going up with this rather simple ad in response:
The script:
My opponent Kemp Hannon is running a negative ad asking who I am.
Well, I'm Kristen McElroy. I'm a working mother of three, and, with my husband, I grew up in Garden City and have lived there my whole life
I know first hand how hard it is these days to make ends meet on Long Island.
I know property taxes are just too high.
And I know we can do better.
So now, Mr. Hannon, you know who I am, and why I'm running for State Senate.
Simple and to the point. And yeah, I think they may be feeling the heat.
(Is the Hannon campaign feeling the heat? And why are they using MY video? - promoted by phillip anderson)
(cross-posted from www.nassaugopwatch.blogspot.com)
Here is a copy of the Anti-McElroy commercial Kemp Hannon started puttng on TV yesterday. It's a last desperate attempt by Hannon to win a campign he has been losing. Democrat Kristen McElory has been flying under the media radar but has built a solid base of support. Hannon is worried.
The ad starts off with the question "Ever hear of Kristen McElroy?" The answer would be no for most people since she is new to politics.
It continues "No one seems to know her." Really? Then why put an ad on the air attacking her????
Because enough people have heard of her to elect her to the State Senate that's why.
The next question asks "so how does she raise nearly $200,000 in a few months?" Well, the answer is simple.... she went fundraising with the support of the Democratic Party and donors seem to have lined up to elect her and get rid of Hannon.
Then the commercial cuts to an out of context video of her saying "Luckily for me I knew the right people."
WHOOPS! McElory wasn't talking about fundraising, she was talking to The Albany Project about how and why she got into the race. That video is below.
You see, she got into the race because Hannon has not been doing enough for the residents of New York, especially the 6th Senate District.
The Hannon ad goes on that she "took huge contributions from all over the US... even $18,500 from Washington DC based PACS." The ad concludes "What do all these interests want from McElroy?"
Okay.. seriously.. again...
Is the Hannon campaign on something??
Let's go over the $72,300 in cash Hannon reported back in July from PACS. And another $14,400 from other PACS?
In September he reported another $34,600 in PAC money.
Most all of that money came from medical and pharmacutical companies.
Hannon is Chairman of the Standing Committee on Health in the State Senate. Why is he talking almost ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS from health care companies?
What do they get from Kemp Hannon?
Kristen McElroy racks up a big one, New York's senior US Senator:
U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer Endorses
Kristen McElroy for State Senate
(Plainview, NY)- On Sunday, October 26th, U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer will announce his endorsement of Democratic State Senate candidate, Kristen McElroy (SD-6). Schumer, Chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, engineered Democrats successful effort to retake the U.S. Senate in 2006, bringing Democrats back in the majority of both houses of Congress for the first time in twelve years.
McElroy, challenging Republican Senate fixture Kemp Hannon, has steadily gained momentum throughout the campaign and is proud to receive the support of New York's senior senator, Schumer. Every election year, the same Republican politicians make the same empty promises to keep their jobs, but after failing to meet the needs of working families for nearly four decades, their chance is over. Honored to be joined on this day by Senator Schumer, Kristen McElroy is a new leader, committed to taking the state in a new direction- toward the real economic change we need to get New York working again.
Smith and the candidates discussed why New York needs a change in the state senate. Republicans have ruled the upper house for over 40 years and the time for addressing the concerns of working families is now. The Republicans have not done this. The Democrats will strive to do this.
(CONTRIBUTED PHOTO: Pictured, from left, are: Jim Gennaro, Malcolm Smith, Joe Mesi at the podium, Hiram Monserrate and Joseph Addabbo. Dan Squadron is directly behind Mesi, although you can't completely see him.)
Here are some of the remarks from the candidates today. I know Phillip said he was hoping to go, so maybe he will have more for us later.
"Albany has lost touch with the needs of working people, and the state is struggling. We've got to get serious about the rising cost of living, unequal distribution of education aid, tax breaks for corporations which outsource jobs and drain the tax base, and a culture of out of control spending and pork barrel promises which has supplanted fiscal responsibility. How many more jobs must we loose until labor and small businesses get the support they need to succeed? How many more seniors should have to go bankrupt before their heath insurance finally kicks in? And how many more years do our kids need to suffer before the City sees the CFE money we were promised 13 years ago. Enough is enough. Albany is out of touch and time is up," said Councilman Joe Addabbo (SD-15).
"Right now, New Yorkers have an historic opportunity to change their day-to-day lives for the better by electing fresh new leadership to the State Senate," said Councilman Jim Gennaro (SD-11), who Chairs the Environmental Protection Committee in the City Council and has become recognized as one of the most prolific author of green legislation in the state. "I'm proud to be part of Senate Democratic Leader Malcolm Smith's energetic and progressive slate of candidates as we run to bring better schools, better health care, better transportation, a more sustainable environment and a state budget that's more responsible and fair for all New Yorkers. The days of a dysfunctional, unresponsive state government promise to be over with our success in November."
Kristin McElroy (SD-6) said "I'm proud to be a Democratic candidate for State Senate this year, because the time has come for Albany to provide real leadership on the issues facing New York's families. Under the Republican majority, property taxes have skyrocketed and health care and energy costs have grown out of control. I look forward to serving on a State Senate led by a Democratic majority that will work with the Governor and the State Assembly to get New York moving in the right direction."
This is a great group of candidates we have statewide this year. We have some seats that are more competitive than others, but that doesn't mean a surprise (or two or three) can't be in the works. There are a few sleeper races that are on my mind that are winnable races this year.
New York needs leadership. They don't need the same lip service they have received from the Republicans for the last 40-plus years. It's time for a change. It's time for a Democratic New York State Senate.
As you can see by Robert's post below, it's direct mail season again. Today we see the first mailing by Kristen McElroy who is taking on craptastic incumbent Kemp Hannon in SD-6. While we're still waiting on her website, this mailer looks awfully good and hopefully is a sign of good things to come. From our pals at the Daily Gotham:
Like two of their fellow Democratic Senate candidates in Monroe County, SD-3 Democratic candidate Brian Foley and SD-6 Democratic challenger Kristen McElroy issued a joint press release criticizing the Republican Senate for failing to pass legislation on key issues like property taxes and campaign finance reform.
Here's the first part of that press release:
Democratic State Senate candidates Brian X. Foley (3rd District) & Kristen McElroy (6th District) joined together at the State Office Building in Hauppauge to blast the Republican Senate for another year of inaction. The Republican Senate failed to vote or debate on important bills to cut property taxes, provide paid family leave, reform New York's broken system of campaign finance, or combat global climate change.
"The party is over in Albany and once again working families are left footing the bill for Republican inaction," state Supervisor Foley. "Working families would have greatly benefited from a property tax cap and paid family leave legislation, but the republicans simply said no."
Kristen McElroy added, "The Republican majority has once again shown a complete lack of concern for families across Long Island."
A recent statewide poll revealed an overwhelming majority, 74% of New Yorkers, support a cap on property taxes. Cutting property taxes through an expanded circuit breaker would provide relief to those who need it most and create a much fairer system of taxes, as the tax breaks would be focused on middle class families. Capping people's property taxes based on income, like the circuit breaker does, would give real relief instead of more political gimmicks.
Foley and McElroy both called on the Republican controlled Senate to "Get back to work."
"There is some unfinished business up in Albany; if the Republican Senate is not interested in working for the people then it is time for change," stated McElroy.
Five Democratic New York State Senate candidates united today to issue a letter to their respective opponents calling on them to pass a property tax cap.
SD-3 Democratic candidate Brian Foley, SD-6 Democratic candidate Kristen McElroy, SD-15 Democratic candidate Joseph Addabbo, SD-55 Democratic candidate David Nachbar and SD-56 Democratic candidate Rick Dollinger all co-authored a letter to their respective opponents and current state senators asking them to pass a property tax cap.
Here is that letter:
Dear Senators Robach, Alesi, Maltese, Hannon and Trunzo:
With bipartisan acknowledgement that middle class New Yorkers are suffering under an untenable property tax burden, we were greatly disappointed that you and your Republican colleagues rejected, without debate or discussion, all of the recommendations of the New York State Commission on Property Tax Relief.
We have watched as the Republican Senate, in its usual fashion, has produced a great volume of speeches, press releases and taxpayer-funded mailings but has yet to actually get anything done as far as easing families' tax burden. This is unacceptable.
People are desperate for relief and want some sort of tax cap. Relief for local governments from unfunded mandates, which directly drive up our property taxes, is long overdue. And one of the most important elements of the Commission's recommendations, the property tax circuit breaker, would introduce an element of tax fairness into the current system of local taxation.
The bottom line is this: Middle class and working families need property tax relief now.
Cutting property taxes through an expanded circuit breaker would provide relief to those who need it most and create a much fairer system of taxes, as the tax breaks would be focused on middle class families rather than the wealthiest homeowners in a community. Capping people's property taxes based on income, like the circuit breaker does, would give real relief, right now, instead of more political gimmicks.
We understand that these are difficult issues, but it's your job to deal with difficult issues. Unfortunately, you have refused to even bring these issues up for a debate or vote in the Senate. New York's beleaguered taxpayers deserve better.
We urge you to act on the Commission's recommendations before you start your summer vacation next week. Legislators must listen to New Yorkers who are at the breaking point: New York State must pass a circuit breaker to cut the amount working families are paying in property taxes, and you must give local governments and taxpayers relief from the unfunded mandates you've passed over the years.
Doing nothing simply cannot be an option now. If you can't find the strength to be a leader on this issue now; if you do not have the integrity to stand up and fight for what is necessary and right; if you are willing to bow down and accept continued failure on this critical issue, it is time for you (and the voters who elected you) to reconsider your career as a State Senator.
Sincerely,
Joseph Addabbo, Richard Dollinger, Brian Foley, Kristen McElroy and David Nachbar
To my knowledge, none of these Democratic candidates have fully functioning websites. Dollinger does have one "coming soon" but the rest don't have anything, at least that I can find.
It appears that Nassau County legislator Dave Mejias has been succesfully muscled out of a race for the state Senate against Republican Kemp Hannon. Nassau County Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs was pissed at Mejias for allegedly backing off a promise to back charter revision that would allow Nassau legislators to immediately raise their salaries (Mejias denies ever making such a pledge.) This apparently didn't go over well with the Senate Democratic Caucus either as it showed them he "wasn't a team player."
The two had been at war after Jacobs said Mejias broke a promise to him to vote for a county charter revision that would allow legislators to immediately increase their salaries, which haven't changed since 1996. In retaliation, Jacobs withdrew the county party's support of Mejias planned challenge to State Sen. Kemp Hannon (R-Garden City).
Mejias denied making any promises. Angry over Jacobs' actions, he said he would no longer meet with the Democratic caucus and Democratic legislators could no longer depend on his tenth vote on the 19 member legislature. He then voted with the Republicans to kill a proposed traffic fee supported by Democratic County Executive Thomas Suozzi.
That vote led the state Senate Democratic Committee to drop its backing of Mejias' bid against Hannon, we reported last week, because it showed he wasn't a team player. The state decision, as well as local Democrats dismay at Mejias' tactics, helped bring him back into the fold, sources say.
Now it appears that Nassau boss Jacobs is "giving" the Dem nomination for SD-6 to one Kristen McElroy.
If Nassau Legis. David Mejias wants to run for State Senate, he will have to wage a primary.
Jay Jacobs, Nassau Democratic chairman, said the party will be giving the nomination to Kristen McElroy, 38, a Garden City attorney and mother of three, who is making her first run to take on Republican State Senate veteran Kemp Hannon.
Mejias had moved into Hannon's district in time to qualify him to run, but was snubbed by the party leaders after angering Jacobs by withholding support for a pay raise for county lawmakers.
Reached Friday, Mejias said that he will not mount a challenge for the nomination, will support the party's candidate, and will "focus 100 percent on the Nassau Legislature."
I know nothing about Kristen McElroy. Perhaps, she'll be a fine candidate, one that can beat Hannon. I certainly hope so and am eager to learn more about her. But, this whole process smells pretty bad to me.
Smith and the candidates discussed why New York needs a change in the state senate. Republicans have ruled the upper house for over 40 years and the time for addressing the concerns of working families is now. The Republicans have not done this. The Democrats will strive to do this.
