Monroe County, USA, or hey, Genesee

by: Exile on Ericsson St.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 18:46:15 PM EST

There are some differences, though: Obama did much better than Kerry in Monroe County (Kerry only won by three points so the Democratic gain was 14, as compared with a 9 point gain nationwide), while he did only marginally better than Kerry in Genesee and Wyoming (he picked up only two points in Genesee and four in Wyoming).  Some of this has to do with the larger African-American population in Monroe, but that's not enough to account for more than a few points (Monroe County is about 14% African-American and so even a 25 point percentage point gain there -- which seems high, even factoring in both turn-out and voting break-down -- only translates into 3.5 points).  

The real reason for the gains in Monroe County probably has a lot do with swings in votes in affluent, white collar suburbs like Pittsford and Brighton.  I don't have access to figures for individual towns, but F29th has done an excellent job of detailing this phenomenon in the context of NY-29.

Today, Mark Brownstein has an excellent article about white collar flight from the Republican party and what it means for the future of American politics:

Barack Obama on Tuesday won the most decisive Democratic presidential victory in a generation largely by tapping into growing elements of American society: young people, Hispanics and other minorities, and white upper-middle-class professionals. That coalition of the ascendant -- combined with unprecedented margins among African-Americans -- powered Obama to a commanding victory over Republican John McCain, even though Obama achieved only modest and intermittent gains with the working-class white voters who provided the foundation of the Democratic coalition from Franklin D. Roosevelt's election in 1932 to Humphrey's defeat 36 years later.

"Obama is reimagining a Democratic coalition for the 21st century," says Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Democratic group that studies electoral trends and tactics. "Democrats [are]... surging with all the ascending and growing parts of the electorate. He is building a coalition that Democrats could ride for 30 or 40 years, the way they rode the FDR coalition of the 1930s."  

Marc Ambinder continues:

One reason why wealthier, knowledge/service workers are voting Democratic is because the Republicans have boxed themselves in on cultural issues, including the role and place of science in society. Since the mid-nineties, Democrats have been gaining in these knowledge/professional melting pot/white collar  suburbs -- just check out four cycles worth of results from the ring counties around Philadelphia, Fairfield Co., CT, Oakland County, MI, Sillicon Valley.

The bad news is that the tides that are currently lifting the Democratic party are unlikely to lift Democrats in rural upstate counties.  The good news, though, is that (in my opinion, as native of rural upstate) rural upstaters are not as culturally conservative as their midwestern and southern brethren.  I admit I have no real data to back that up, but the fact that NYS is only 6% evangelical certainly speaks to this fact.  Growing progressivism in rural upstate New York may be one of the most interesting -- neither easy nor insurmountable -- challenges facing local progressives.  

"Wardrobe and Make-up, But No Script"

by: robinia

Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 22:47:47 PM EDT

Ithaca Blog is the source of this post's title, a reference to a source of difficulty in the failing McCain campaign, imputed from its campaign staff paychecks:

In the home stretch of an election where the McCain campaign has struggled to find a message, perhaps its priorities can be determined by its spending.

According to a filing yesterday with the Federal Election Commission, the highest-paid person in the McCain campaign in the first half of October was not the senior staff member, nor the chief foreign policy adviser, but Sarah Palin's traveling makeup stylist.

The salaries for those three individuals, respectively, were $12,000 (senior staff member); $12,500 (chief foreign policy adviser); and $22,800 (makeup stylist).

Now, of course, everyone here probably knows that the highest-paid NYS employee is Alain Kaloyeros and doubtless he is worth every penny... to somebody... and, his image is clearly important, given all we taxpayers spend on his sportscar.  But, to my knowledge, we don't really have a breakdown of how those running for NY office use their campaign cash.  It is an interesting ponder, however.  How high does actual policy rate on the expense accounts of incumbent and would-be NYS pols, and how much is spent on fluff and image?

Governor Paterson-- running for office, even though the election he would run in is still two years away-- had begun by emphasizing serious issues, although he has of necessity come back to some image control lately.  Maybe the sober approach is right for our sobering times, though. Paul Krugman says that the media, along with the populace, are "desperately seeking seriousness" now that the economy is tanking, and that is working to Obama's benefit... and perhaps to the advantage of Democrats in NY, too?  After all, Randy "da Weasel" Kuhl (R- Hair Club for Men) has been tanking since the financial meltdown, too... Ah, but Brad DeLong does not share this hopeful view, although he agrees that the MSM has, temporarily, decided to favor the reality-based community.

What do you think, have the voters and/or the media decided to focus more on substance since the economy took that big downward turn?

Thought Better of It: McCain Will Show Up for Debate

by: robinia

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:46:37 AM EDT

This just in (with the campaign's spin, of course) from NY Times:

Senator John McCain will attend tonight's first presidential debate in Oxford, Miss.

Brian Rogers, the campaign spokesman, put out the following statement:

   Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.

Fresh-pressed cider and lotsa snark at my place tonight.

NY a Swing State? Rockland County delegation drinks RNC Kool-Aid

by: cliffweathers

Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 14:40:40 PM EDT

You couldn't help but wonder what the delegates like Reda and Silvestri were smoking at the Republican convention, as they joined other delegates in wildly cheering for two of the worst political speeches I have ever heard: First there was the snarling Sarah Palin, who made fun of Harry Reid's height and mocked Obama's experience and popularity. And then there was the pitifully bland and empty John McCain.

But Reda and Silvestri really believe this is a winning duo for New York.

Rally at McCain fundraiser in NYC tomorrow 6/10

by: greenheron

Mon Jun 09, 2008 at 14:47:12 PM EDT

John McCain likes to claim he's a different kind of Republican. He's a "maverick."  

But tomorrow, he's holding a $28,500 per plate fundraiser right here in NYC that looks all too familiar.

He's raising money at the at the "glamorous" 21 Club from New York's financial elite, the big money crowd that bankrolled the Bush administration. They want to keep the racket going for four more years.

Among the hosts is billionaire buyout tycoon Henry Kravis. Kravis and some of his financial friends got a lot of notice last year for taking advantage of a tax loophole that lets them pay income taxes at a lower rate than middle- and working-class people. We're not kidding.

Barack Obama wants to close the loophole. He thinks Kravis can afford to pay his fair share, and so does the WFP.

Surprise, surprise: McCain wants to keep the loophole open. It's the same old Republican approach - government of, for, and by the ultra-wealthy.  

Tomorrow, please join WFP and SEIU members and Billionaires for Bush / McCain at a rally outside the fundraiser.  

We want the press and every YouTube watcher to ask: if McCain thinks billionaires should pay lower taxes than the doorman at his fundraiser, how different is he?

   When: 6:00 PM, Tomorrow - Tuesday, June 10th
   Where: The '21' Club, 21 West 52nd Street

Stop by and join us if you can.

McCain's top fund-raiser hugs Bush

by: devtob

Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:13:17 AM EDT

And it's no surprise, really, since multi-millionaire lobbyist Tom Loeffler, McCain's campaign general co-chairman and finance chairman, has been a Bush gang profiteer and fund-raiser for 20 years or so.

For example, Loeffler presumably has other oily clients, but his Wikipedia page lists just one - the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Loeffler was in the Albany area to raise some money for Rensselaer County Republicans (whose Boss Bruno is facing a probable federal indictment and practically certain loss of his state Senate majority this year).

Whatever Loeffler said to the boss' kickback crowd was evidently off-the-record, since there's no story in any of the local papers (online anyway).

But Loeffler could not hide his Bush-love under a barrel, so he stopped by the Albany Times-Union before the dinner.

Details of unabashed Bush love, below.