Paroli + Ciampoli = Tedisco Redux

by: Hudson

Wed Nov 18, 2009 at 16:37:14 PM EST

Remember the Tedisco-Murphy showdown over the right of second home owners to cast absentee ballots?

The ever-changing mind of Poughkeepsie's vote-denying Pizza Stain Judge Brands? The literally hamfisted legal tactics of John Ciampoli? The barely-veiled threats to sic private investigators on voters, many of them happening to have Jewish-sounding last names?

Do you remember? Sure 'ya do!

And if you don't, and somehow missed all the fun, never fear: The drama is playing out all over again right now in Columbia County, with statewide repercussions if the GOP's vote-suppression team -- led by wannabe private eye and former Dutchess County clerk Bill Paroli Jr. and attorney John Ciampoli succeeds in shopping for a judge who will overturn years of precedent...

Details of how Roli-Poli are striking again after the jump. First, some background:

Final Tally in NY-20: Murphy by 726

by: robinia

Tue May 12, 2009 at 04:31:09 AM EDT

One of the things that I found most interesting was how the absentee votes did not trend toward Tedisco, who started the short campaign with far more name recognition.  While the Tedisco campaign made a big deal of absentee ballots from in-state second home owners, most absentee voters were probably in Florida or Iraq during the campaign.

In terms of the military vote, I found this fascinating article: How Soldiers Really Vote, which sets us straight about the

long-held conventional wisdom that the U.S. military overwhelmingly backs the GOP

only 32 percent of the Army's enlisted soldiers consider themselves conservative, while 23 percent identify as liberal and the remaining 45 percent are self-described moderates. These numbers closely mirror the ideological predilections of the civilian population. . . .

The political differences between officers and enlisted personnel can be partly explained by a demographic divide. Whereas officers are predominantly white, have at least a bachelor's degree, and draw incomes that place them in the middle or upper-middle class, the enlisted ranks have a higher proportion of minorities, make less money than officers, and typically enter service with only a high school diploma.

NY-20: Why all parties should decry Tedisco's tactics

by: Hudson

Sat Apr 18, 2009 at 13:51:59 PM EDT

A minority, however (including a handful of Kos posters, and sites such as Talking Points Memo) don't seem to get it, and have shrugged at Tedisco's heavyhanded manipulation of the process.

So I think this is a good moment to go back and consider the design of New York's Election Law -- how it is supposed to normally operate.

To that end, let's review how an election (and an election dispute) normally proceeds, under the clear and sane existing guidelines of New York State. I'll skip some of the minutiae, focusing on the fundamentals of the process, after the jump...

NY-20: Tedisco has officially lost his marbles

by: Hudson

Fri Apr 17, 2009 at 01:31:17 AM EDT

Just when you thought the Tedisco campaign's tactics couldn't get any more absurd here in the 20th Congressional District, they just got utterly ridiculous.

According to late Thursday night report in the Hudson Register-Star, the Tedisco legal team filed suit in Dutchess County court demanding to be declared the winner in the special election race with Scott Murphy.

Yup, you heard that right.

Tedisco's down by 178 votes, according to the official New York State Board of Elections tally. Yet he's asking a judge to declare him the winner.

Come again?

Even though he's falling farther and farther behind as the count reaches its final three counties, and even though the vast majority of ballots yet to be opened are Democrats challenged by Tedisco.

Head-spinning details after the jump...

Daily recount update

by: Dan Jacoby

Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 13:51:12 PM EDT

The good news (as if that weren't good enough) is that Murphy leads in all five counties that haven't finished counting the paper (Columbia, Dutchess, Essex, Rensselaer and Warren).  It looks like the final difference could easily top 200.

NY-20: Nate Silver predicts an easy Murphy victory (& other updates)

by: Hudson

Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 11:28:56 AM EDT

The justifiably celebrated Nate Silver of 538.com predicts that Scott Murphy will win the hotly-contested race for New York 20th Congressional Distict handily, by "500-600" votes.

(How cool would it be if Murphy won by 538 votes exactly?)

Silver, for those who just bought their first computer, is the baseball statistics genius who very precisely predicted the outcomes of both the 2008 Democratic primaries and the general election. If anything, he says, he may be underestimating Murphy's margin, given Jimmy Disco's Colemanesque strategery:

More teabag tax day updates below the fold...

NY-20: Beware the "Pizza Stain" Judge

by: Hudson

Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:41:44 PM EDT

Many of us feel relatively confident of Scott Murphy's chances of winning the Congressional seat in NY-20. The numbers seem to stack up pretty well for him, when one examines where the votes are coming from.

The one shot that Tedisco might have is to have a hyperpartisan judge uphold the hundreds and hundreds of ballots his lawyers have speciously challenged.

And in Dutchess County Supreme Court judge James V. Brands, Tedisco may just have found his man...

Details (and what this has to do with pizza) after the jump...

NY-20: All-purpose update thread

by: Hudson

Mon Apr 13, 2009 at 14:52:41 PM EDT

B R E A K I N G

Allegations have arisen that Tedisco is targeting Jewish absentee voters who received their ballots in New York City and Florida:

Politico:

Most of the action was taking place in Columbia County, where Tedisco attorney James Walsh objected to nearly every absentee ballot that came from voters who own a residence in New York City or Florida.

[There is] a concerted effort from Tedisco's campaign to challenge the legality of ballots from voters who have their primary residence outside of the district.  According to Democratic figures, about 60 percent of the absentee ballot challenges came from Tedisco as of last Friday, and that number has shot up with today's rash of challenges.

The slew of challenges led Democrats in Columbia County accusing Tedisco of deliberately trying to disenfranchise Jewish voters, since many of the ballots from the city came from voters with last names like Cohen, Pollack and Rosengarten.

"My children are Jewish, and I'm offended by that," Walsh responded to the New York Observer.

A N D

Read this article, about the ratcheting up of phony "vote fraud" allegations from the Tedisco camp:

http://ccscoop.com/news/09apri...

{ UPDATED x4 } NY-20: Urgent distress call from Columbia County

by: Hudson

Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 00:03:45 AM EDT

http://www.timesunion.com/AspS...

Commendations to reporter Leigh Hornbeck for taking a second look, when evidence of a problem was brought to her attention.

HUMOROUS UPDATE: The Tedisco legal team has apparently been complaining that the reason the count is going so slowly is that they have to access data on the web, but the County won't allow outside access to its internet system, so they have to use slow satellite cards.

But take a close look at this photo in CCScoop. Check out what's on the screen of the guy with the laptop:

He's not accessing an online database -- that's the Drudge Report he's reading!

EVENING UPDATE: Check out what is being reported in The Hudson Register-Star on Friday:

Much more after the jump...

Stop spinning NY-20... And start gearing up for the absentee fight.

by: Hudson

Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 13:11:31 PM EDT

It's great that Murphy is technically ahead (though by a statistically meaningless margin, considering the number of ballots left to count). But prematurely spinning this election as a solid victory for Obama or the New York State Democratic Party or even Mr. Murphy is a double-edged sword. Now is the time not for self-congratulation or gloating, but to do whatever we can to help the Murphy team with the absentee fight to come.

On the ground in NY-20: Steele's last stand

by: Exile on Ericsson St.

Sun Mar 29, 2009 at 18:02:28 PM EDT

the Field Staff is saying that this is Michael Steele's last stand.  it may just be motivational, but perhaps there is something to it

It's interesting to me that Republican sources leaked the idea that Steele will get fired as RNC chair if Tedisco loses.  They had to know that this would indeed be a good motivator for Democrats.

I also asked my friend to describe how various issues were playing.  He wrote:

The focus of the campaign staff is GOTV, therefore canvassers aren't asking about issues.  But invariably some voters are still undecided.  Much of the voters' critique of Scott Murphy surrounds his status as a wealthy guy in an economic downturn, and his assumed link to the current financial crisis.  Even though there is no connection between Scott Murphy and derivative traders or anyone else culpable for our current recession, undecided voters are susceptible to this line of Tedisco attack, and it shows in conversation.  I talked to one gentleman today who told me that he was genuinely undecided because he doesn't trust Tedisco, but he feels that Murphy is too tight with people on Wall Street.  

Overwhelmingly however the voters are responding positively to Murphy message.  Despite working for 8 hours, even skilled canvassers were having difficultly getting to more than one turf, because the lists are so thick.  I think this illustrated how throughly the field staff have culled the 20th CD for issues and support.  Because of the field work prior our arrival, there is a real sense that Murphy will win, despite the districts intrinsic difficulty.  

Many people I spoke with had very sour thoughts on Tedisco, believing correctly that his years in Albany's fishbowl have alienated him from his constituents, and put him on the wrong side of the issues.  Either way, if Tedisco continues to lose traction, if the markets continue to respond, and if we have three more solid days of GOTV, this race could surprise everybody.  Get people down to the 20th if they have time, every voters counts!