Time: Summer, 2011. Day. Setting: Exterior. Camera pans over hurricane-devistated NY-19 from above and reveals flooded communities...damaged homes, towns and businesses as far as the eye can see. Montage of homeowners digging out, families searching for family members, firefighters and police aiding their neighbors.
Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.
The categories are:
NY-Sen: Schumer vs. Townsend percentage
NY-Sen: Gillibrand vs. DioGuardi percentage
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
NY-AG: Schneiderman vs. Donovan
NY-Comptroller: DiNapoli vs. Wilson
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-20: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
NY-24: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan
Here are my predictions:
US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.
US House: 218 D 217 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.
NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-AG: Schneiderman wins, 53-47
NY-Comptroller: Dinapoli wins, 52-48
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-20:Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
NY-24: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.
Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally, and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory in the waiting.
What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!
Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.
The categories are:
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-23: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
NY-24: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan
Here are my predictions:
US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.
US House: 220 D 218 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.
NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-23: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
NY-24: Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.
Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally , and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory int he waiting.
What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!
Left of the Hudson will be doing a live blog of tonight's rally in Harriman, NY as John Hall kicks off his final Get out the Vote push. Former President Bill Clinton will be the guest speaker and there will be musical guests to be announced.
A live blog is a real-time multimedia event that includes commentary and reporting from panelists, photographs, some live video coverage, and interaction with the online audience. Please join us at 7:20 pm tonight by clicking here: http://www.lefthudson.com/2010...
The always amazing volunteer group ACT NOW NY is sponsoring a lot of volunteer activities between now and election day, focusing on buttressing John Hall and Joe Sestak. They are having phone banks for Sestak and are having a canvass for John Hall this weekend:
Thank you for joining ACT NOW as we team up with Organizing for America and a number of local progressive organizations to reach out to voters on behalf of Congressman John Hall.
On Saturday October 16th, we will be canvassing in Peekskill and on Sunday, October 17th, we will be canvassing in Beacon, both heavily Democratic areas that will need to show a strong turnout on Election Day.
On Saturday, we will be meeting at the information booth in Grand Central at 11:15AM and taking the train to Peekskill. On Sunday, we will be meeting at the Grand Central Information booth at 10:20AM and taking the train to Beacon. We will return to the city by 7PM. Round-trip off-peak tickets to Peekskill cost $20.
On Sunday, we will be meeting at Grand Central at 10:15AM, to return by 7PM. Round-trip off-peak tickets to Beacon cost $26.
If this ticket fare is a hardship to you, please let us know. We don't want anyone to miss out on these important canvasses, and can work out the cost.
Please RSVP below with your full details, so that we can send you meeting information. If you would like to meet us in Peekskill or Beacon, please indicate so on your form.
Note: This canvass is geared for first-time canvassers, so please, come along even if you haven't canvassed before and bring your friends, too.
I know it sneaks up on you, but the election is actually less than 3 weeks away. We cannot afford to sit on our hands and let the Christian Nationalist Party take over our congress.
Update: ACT NOW has informed me that they will also be handing out lit for Mike Kaplowitz in the contiguous parts of SD-40 and NY-19; yet another reason to come!
With all the rancor, finger pointing, and denunciations that come during the end game of political cycles, its nice to see some John Hall supporters demonstrating how much they love their Congressman by serenading him with a song he made famous thirty-four years ago.
(And it's so much nicer to listen to than the angry, spiteful, and off-key rip-off offered up by the Nan Hayworth campaign.)
The video editing and performances are excellent. Enjoy!
Please watch this great video with our Congressman, some of his fellow musicians, and a lot of local folk. Thank you Dar Williams for putting this together.
Few things have been more unsettling about our political discourse recently than the worship of Stupid on the part of the Republican Party. I'm all for cogent debate about ideological differences, economic policy and it's effect on the job market, the role of government and regulation in our society, but the embrace of mind numbingly idiotic ideas to turn voter frustration into votes is a reflection of how little the Republicans care about the greater good and how much they care about themselves and their corporate sponsors. To my added dismay, Nan Hayworth is a card carrying member of that club.
Perhaps no other policy position exemplifies the embrace of rock brained dumb more than the "privatization of Social Security." (Okay, climate change denying comes close.)
Nan Hayworth's campaign manager, John Hicks, along with other campaign notaries, admitted to misconduct on the witness stand Wednesday in regards to the handling of Independence Party petitions. Hayworth, a retired Mt. Kisco physician, is one of two potential Republican opponents to Democratic Congressman John Hall (NY-19) in November.
Two days into a court review of the petitions, Hicks admitted that allegations brought forth by Congressman's John Hall campaign were true, and that he didn't uphold the law "in the traditional sense" when gathering signatures for the Independence Party line.
In the interest of equal time, representatives of Nan Hayworth's congressional campaign have contacted me and asked if I would publish their response to civil charges being filed by John Hall's campaign, which I posted here. The core of progressivism is fairness, so I have agreed to allow them to answer these allegations and I am inserting them below as they were sent to me. The statements for publication are in blockquotes after the jump:
Explosive news comes out of New York's Lower Hudson Valley, where the campaign of a GOP congressional candidate hoping to face Rep. John Hall in November is tainted with allegations of fraud.
Republican candidate Nan Hayworth's campaign manager, John Hicks, will soon appear in New York Supreme Court on charges that notaries used by the campaign engaged in a petition campaign drenched with fraud. Hicks, along with 10 other of Hayworth's notary publics, are currently being served subpoenas.
Hicks, the manager of the GOP hopeful in New York's 19th Congressional District, is scheduled to appear in court on September 25. At question are petitions carried by Hayworth's notaries for the Independence Party, a minor New York party. Petitions must either be carried by members of the party or by notaries, public servants appointed by state government to witness the signing of important documents and administer oaths. Typically, notaries are used for signature gathering because of a scarcity of party members willing to carry petition sheets.
Yesterday, Representative John Hall (NY-19) called on his Republican challenger, Nan Hayworth, to denounce claims made by GOP leaders of an Obama Administration "shake down" of oil giant BP.
Hall specifically asked his opponent to denounce comments made by Republican Congressman Tom Price, a major political ally of Hayworth's. But Hayworth won't budge, and is, in fact, now echoing Price's infamous press release, where the GOP leader rants that the administration is extorting BP and using the crisis to to further its "liberal agenda." Is this where Hayworth begins to show her true colors, as an advocate of big corporate interests over the pressing needs of hard-working taxpayers in her district? It seems so.
Remember Kristia Cavere, the Tea Party/Republican Party candidate that claimed, a few weeks, back that:
"The Republicans are the ones who liberated Europe in World War II."
Just as odd as that statement was Cavere's claims that very same week that she had over $400,000 in her campaign war chest. It did seem odd, since Cavere didn't seem to have a job or a political following. All she was known for prior to her Congressional run were some anti-Obama tirades found online.
But I cut Cavere some slack about the mysterious financial reporting, because, hey, I even unwittingly maxed out a credit card a few months back. But I really shouldn't have...
This promises to be a bizarre political year, with GOP candidates not only running to the far right, but veering way off track. Earlier this week, Republican Senate candidate Sue Lowden of Nevada grabbed the crazy baton from Rep. Michele Bachmann when she suggested that people should barter and haggle with their doctors for health care, rather than rely on insurance. But what she said is nothing compared to what the newly minted challenger to Congressman John Hall said in her candidacy's opening days.
Silver is predicting that the Republicans chances of taking back the House next years are 50/50. Unfortunately, the winds are a-blowing in this country, and the pendulum is a-swingin. Republicans are gonna come out in droves this fall, and Democrats seem to have lost their motivation. We may not get as long on the top as the Republicans did and we need to hunker down now and play defense to keep our seats - and keep the State Senate.
I know we were hoping that the most important seats this year were 3 and 26. But they're not. We could run Jesus Christ himself and he'd probably lose them both. We have at least 7 seats at risk this year:
13: McCain 51-Obama 49 Bush 55-Kerry 45
19: Obama 51-McCain 48 Bush 54-Kerry 45
20: Obama 51-McCain 48 Bush 54-Kerry 46
23: Obama 52-McCain 47 Bush 51-Kerry 47
24: Obama 50-McCain 48 Bush 53-Kerry-47
25: Obama 56-McCain 43 Kerry 50-Bush 48
29: McCain 50-Obama 48 Bush 56-Kerry 42
Now normally, this early in the year, I'd think that the Democrats have a chance to adjust some public priorities, reset the agenda, and change the underlying dynamics of the year. However, our uninspiring Governor, inept Senate Majority Leader (he's gonna lose his own seat), and wildly unpopular Speaker of the House don't seem to be willing to try, so its up to us and our candidates.
If I were Weiner, McCarthy, Bishop, or Higgins, I'd be shoring up as much cash as possible. But the 7 I listed above need to be doing more than that: cash is king, but Get-Out-The-Vote will be what determines whether we finish the year with a 25 seat majority or a 11 seat majority.
I'm worried that no one is thinking about this, and terrified that no one is taking this seriously. If we bury our heads in the sand and try not to think about this, we're no better than that woman in Massachusetts. Two years ago this site was buzzing daily with how to pickup five seats, we won four. Today, we need to hunker down and set our sights on saving these seven seats, and hope we can save at least six. Unless you want to see the Republicans start to have their way again.
The 23rd wasn't include for obvious reasons. That race can serve as its own post, since three candidates are vying for it and there is no incumbent.
One of the things that stuck out to me was the great quarter Eric Massa had. His district - NY-29 - is a rural district that isn't really a wealthy district. So when he can bring in over $289,000 in a quarter where most upstate representatives only brought in half of that amount, it shows that he is a strong incumbent. The Republicans are gunning for him, but he's tough.
Dan Maffei had a very strong quarter - the best of any upstate representative and fourth-best of any member of Congress in the state.
If there is one thing you can say about Rangel, he is a great fundraiser. He was second to Steve Israel in this quarter, but not by much. His expenditures were high, but he still has a lot of money in the bank (not that he needs to worry about that).
For the most part, these are solid and typical numbers. As a resident of NY-26, it is interesting to see Lee's numbers. I wouldn't read too much into his mediocre quarter, but the list of donors who have contributed to his campaign makes for a "Best of Wall Street"-type list.
As John reported over the weekend, Assemblyman Greg Ball, the Republican candidate challenging Democratic incumbent John Hall in the 19th congressional district, is on the receiving end of an FEC complaint that was filed because of alleged violations of campaign finance law.
- On June 5, 2009, Ball's "Congressional Exploratory Committee" hosted a golf outing at Hudson Hills Golf Course and Murphy's Restaurant. On the surface, there is nothing wrong with that. But according to the complaint, Ball's committee solicited and accepted corporate contributions for a fundraising auction, which is illegal.
From the complaint:
10. On or about May 1, 2009, Jacqueline Ambrosino, a Ball representative, sent an email to a distribution list soliciting donations for the silent auctions. See Exhibit A. "We are looking for tickets to sporting events, televisions, gift certificates to restaurants and services (such as legal and accounting services), foursomes for other golf courses, trips, plane tickets, spa gift certificates, televisions, just to name a few ..." Exhibit A.
11. The May 1, 2009, email expressly asked for corporate contributions: "You can reach out to your network and try to get donations from both businesses and people. Exhibit A (emphasis supplied).
"When working with a business, you can emphasize the foot traffic that will be generated by having their name featured at our event and in a brochure to be handed out to everyone that attends." Exhibit A (emphasis supplied).
- The complaint also alleges that Ball's committee accepted corporate sponsorships and sought "excessive contributions" for an event.
Again, from the complaint:
12. On or about July 25, 2009, Ball's campaign sponsored a "Rockin' Rib Fest & Battle of the Bands." Exhibit B.
13. The July 25, 2009, event was "sponsored" by the New York State Rifle & Pistol Association and the National Rifle Association. Exhibit B. On information and belief, both entities are corporations.
14. The Ball campaign sought additional "sponsorships" in connection with the July 25, 2009, event, including a "VIP Congressional Tent Sponsorship" priced at $2,900 - $500 in excess of the federal contribution limit. Exhibit B. Other Ball event solicitations have shown similar indifference to the $2,400 limit. See, e.g., http://www.ballforcongress.com... (Exhibit C) (asking for $2,500 and $4,800 contributions, without regard to the per-election limit).
It should also be clear that the event in question on July 25 was not "sponsored" (that's why it is in quotes and not stated as fact) by the New York State Rifle and Pistol Association or the NRA.
As a strong supporter of the Second Amendment, and a member both of the NYSRPA and the NRA, I want to point out that Greg Ball's campaign committee distributed fliers which CLAIMED sponsorship by these entities, but in fact, Tom King---President of NYSRPA--- had no idea that Ball's campaign was going to make this claim. The NRA and the NYSRPA are both 501 (c) 3 organizations, and as such are PROHIBITED from endorsing candidates for election. The NYSRPA has a subsidiary, the Political Victory Fund (PVF) which DOES endorse candidates, but it is not incorporated integrally with NYSRPA. Likewise, the NRA-PVF endorses, but these are NOT the organizations advertised as "sponsoring" the July 25th event. (He also claimed that Senator Vincent Leibell was a sponsor---uh, no he wasn't.) The NRA and NYSRPA will not like the specter of seeming to have expressly endorsed a political candidate...they do not break the law. Ball did.
- The complaint also alleges illegal robocalls that were paid for by the Ball committee but not attributed to his committee and did not include who authorized the call. Federal laws require calls of that magnitude to include who paid for the call and to say that it was authorized by the candidate.
19. Ball's July 15 Quarterly Report discloses an in-kind contribution made on June 29, 2009, by Brian Callaghan in the form of "Automated Calls." Exhibit E.
20. On or about June 29, 2009, an automated call featuring Ball was distributed to voters in the 19th Congressional District. The call contained no statement indicating who had paid for the call, or whether Ball had authorized it. See Exhibit F.
- The last allegation is that Ball transferred money from his Assembly campaign committee to his congressional committee, a big no-no since you can't use non-federal monies for a federal race. To date, there have been two filings for Ball4NY, Ball's committee. Nowhere does it show payment for these items for the use of resources from his nonfederal campaign and his official New York State Assembly office.
17. Ball's federal campaign has made and is making repeated use of photos, videos and other assets from his nonfederal campaign and/or his official New York Assembly office.
See, e.g., http://www.ballforcongress.com... (Exhibit D). Ball's filings to date with the Federal Election Commission show no payment to his Assembly campaign, nor to the State of New York, for the use of these photos
Gary Levine, the man who has brought the FEC complaint against Ball, had this to say to me when I inquired about the complaint:
The reason for the complaint was because Assemblyman Ball violated FEC laws. If he wants to play politics he should play by the established rules and he didn't. Whether it was flagrant or unintentional it does not matter. Either way it is a violation and it does not bode well for the Assemblyman, his campaign or his current constituents.
The charges here are pretty serious. Some of these charges revolve around things that are basic. His committee should know the FEC guidelines and that there are limits on contributions. Setting $2,900 contribution levels just comes off as lazy (or intentional) to me. It's clear that either they were ignorant in regard to the rules, or they intended on trying to get by without anyone noticing. That's tough in politics, since everyone is watching.
It seems that Greg Ball just is unable to keep from cheating. In Mr. Ball's world, the rules just don't apply to him. Poughkeepsie Journal
The complaint alleges the Mr. Ball directly or through a failure to supervise his staff has violated numerous campaign finance laws. Mr. Ball solicited and accepted campaign contributions from corporations. He solicited funds in excess of the contribution limits. He did a round of robo-calls (don't you love getting those?), without announcing who paid for the calls or approved the message, also a violation of campaign finance laws.
State Assemblyman Greg Ball, R-Patterson, said this afternoon that he won't be intimidated because someone dumped a dead goat outside his Putnam Lake home Wednesday night.
State police are investigating but declined to release much information, citing the open case.
"Whether this crime was perpetrated by gang members, or some sick local individual, I will not be cowed by threats, and I condemn this kind of heinous violent behavior towards animals," Ball said. "I want my constituents to know that I will continue my efforts to stand up every day for justice, and the people of the Hudson Valley."
A note written on cardboard in a combination of Spanish and English was tied around the goat's neck. The sign made reference to Ball and was signed MS-13, which Ball said refers to Mara Salvatrucha, a notorious Central American gang that he says is operating in the Village of Brewster, even though police have never found credible evidence of the gang.
Am I the only one who's Morton Downey Jr bells are ringing off the hook here? Given Assemblyman Ball's history (see here as well), color me a bit suspicious. First, would a Latino street gang even know who Greg Ball was? If so, would they feel threatened by him? Ball has made stoking anti immigrant anger a cornerstone of his political career, but would a criminal street gang like MS-13 have even noticed? Would they even care of they did? Would they go so far as to try to intimidate him by dumping a dead goat at his house? Would they even know where he lived? Would the "threat" be in "broken Spanish" or a language Ball could actually read? Does any of this sound plausible to you?
I'm sorry, this just smells really bad. I sincerely hope I am wrong about this, but this whole thing looks like a rather lame inside job, a pathetic attempt to gain sympathy and anti-immigrant cred as he gears up to make a run against John Hall in NY-19.
Now that we know who won and who lost this year, it's easier to take a whack at 2012 redistricting. Redistricting NYC I'll leave to the people who understand the Racial barriers, but suffice to say we'll keep control of all of the seats.
Context: NY stands to lose 2 seats this year, and by pure population, one will almost inevitably have to come from the Albany area, while the other will have to come from NYC. It is nearly impossible to draw a map without Albany losing the upstate seat, and truly impossible to draw a map where upstate loses 2 seats; there are just too many people upstate.
I took a whack at it; this map is crude: the district lines are not precise; the districts don't all have exactly 770,000 714,000 people in them (the new target number), and Buffalo, Syracuse, and Albany are all split in this map, it's kind of hard to tell. Also, I may have drawn congressmen outside of their seats, this was unintentional.
Most importantly, this map leaves Upstate with 1 Republican, as Chris Lee could not hold the seat I drew for him.
Yesterday, Representative John Hall (NY-19) called on his Republican challenger, Nan Hayworth, to denounce claims made by GOP leaders of an Obama Administration "shake down" of oil giant BP.
