The Cook Political Report (sub req'd) seems to have caught on to something that has been apparent for quite some time, namely that the race in the 19th isn't exactly playing out the way the GOP had hoped.
This Hudson Valley-based district, site of a 2006 election result many Republicans called a fluke, has been a recruiting nightmare for the GOP this year. National Republicans aren't showing much interest in their nominee, Kieran Lalor, whose conservative profile is a far cry from the moderate resume of longtime former GOP Rep. Sue Kelly, who carried this district easily for years before losing in the tidal wave of 2006. Hall doesn't face a real race for a sophomore term.
It looks as if the folks at CQ Politics have finally noticed that there doesn't seem to be much of a race in the 19th:
New York's 19th(New Rating: Democrat Favored. Previous Rating: Leans Democratic). The failure by the Republican Party to recruit a top-tier candidate to challenge first-term Democratic Rep. John Hall has pushed the race further in favor of the former Orleans rocker ("Still The One"). Republican Kieran Michael Lalor, an Iraq War veteran who works the night shift of a union job and campaigns during the day, is a first-time candidate. The Republican county committees rallied behind Lalor as their standard bearer for the Hudson Valley district, but only after recruitment stumbles. The DCCC lists Hall as one of their "Frontline Democrats" that the party will fight to protect and Hall enters the race with a serious fundraising advantage. He reported raising $1.9 million and had $1.3 million on hand by June 30 while Lalor reported raising $227,000 and had $151,000 on hand by the same date.
All told, CQ updated 14 House races this morning, all but two of them in favor of Democrats.
Earlier today 10 New York Democrats voted to eviscerate the 4th Amendment and to retroactively excuse the lawless warrantless surveillance of tens of millions of Americans by an out of control Executive as well as the telecom companies that that facilitated these crimes. Their votes were disgraceful and we should never forget them, but the majority of New York Democrats stood up for our Constitution today and we shouldn't forget their votes either. The following New York Democrats stood tall today:
Clarke (NY-11)
Hall (NY-19)
Hinchey (NY-22)
Israel (NY-2)
Maloney (NY-14)
McNulty (NY-21)
Nadler (NY-8)
Rangel (NY-15)
Serrano (NY-16)
Slaughter (NY-28)
Towns (NY-10)
Velazquez (NY-12) (My Congresswoman. Way to go, Nydia.)
Weiner (NY-9)
It should probably go without saying, but all New York House Republicans (with exception of Tom Reynolds, who was apparently napping) voted for this abomination.
Republicans just seem to love the song "Still the One", a song written by our own freshman Rep. John Hall. The Bush campaign used the song until then private citizen Hall asked them to stop. Now John McCain is doing it again and Hall, an Obama supporter, is none too happy.
At a campaign rally in New Hampshire yesterday, the McCain campaign played the classic 1970s song "Still The One" over the loudspeakers. One problem: The principal author of the song, John Hall, is a freshman Democratic Congressman from New York who is supporting Barack Obama.
Hall reacted strongly in an interview with NBC News, saying the GOP should immediately stop using his song: "The only one John McCain is 'Still the One' for is George Bush."
Via TPM, the Cook Political Report has upgraded its ranking of ten House ratings in favor of Democrats. Among them are CT-04 (Chris Shays) from Lean Republican to Toss-up, and NY-29 (Kuhl), also from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
NY-29 now joins NY-13, NY-25 and NY-26 in the toss-up category; of the three seats we took in 2006, NY-19 and NY-24, represented by Hall and Arcuri respectively, are ranked by Cook as Likely Democratic, and the weakest, NY-20's Kirsten Gillibrand, is considered Lean Democratic at this point. The full report (.pdf) paints a staggering picture of republican weakness.
In the money race, most Democrats are eminently competitive, with one glaring exception: the contenders in the Thirteenth. The FEC database reveals more.
NY-13: no data on either Harrison or McMahon. Anecdotally, Harrison has raised about $140,000, with about $40,000 coming in in the last quarter, McMahon supposedly has less than that.
NY-19: Hall, CoH $1,141,961, raised $1,608,537
NY-20: Gillibrand, CoH $2,474,445, raised $3,165,043
NY-24: Arcuri, CoH $590,541, raised $897,684
NY-25: Maffei, CoH $675,661, raised $853,982
NY-26: Powers, CoH $402,137, raised $598,327
NY-26: Kryszan, CoH $206,747, raised $287,508, debt $97,000
NY-29: Massa, CoH $565,320, raised $898,780, debt $75,820
So there's your New York Congressional battlefield; four pickup opportunities - or three and a half, until NY-13 finally gets some real money raised by the contenders, and some tactical defense in the three districts we took in the last cycle. At this rate, we can probably look at sending some ground troops to take out the faltering republicans in Connecticut and New Jersey, where NJ-03 and NJ-07, both open seats, and CT-04 are ripe for the taking.
Turns out that New York's members of Congress aren't all at the top of the class, but most are getting a passing grade, says the Drum Major Institutes's congressional scorecard website, TheMiddleClass.org. The site rates members of Congress based on their votes on legislation that has a significant impact on the current and aspiring middle class.
So how did New York's senators and representatives rate? Senator Chuck Schumer received a B and Hillary Clinton earned an A+. Schumer, it turns out, missed a vote on immigration legislation and voted wrong on a trade deal with Peru that would have moved American jobs overseas and brought down the wages of American workers. Clinton voted "with the middle class" on all of the bills. As DMI says of its grading,
"TheMiddleClass.org 2007 Congressional Scorecard takes a closer look at the decisions made by Congress, from the one-year freeze to prevent the Alternative Minimum Tax from hitting middle-class families to the filibuster that originally torpedoed a minimum wage increase (later passed) and the trade bill that put the interests of multinational corporations and large investors before the concerns of middle-class Americans. After examining 13 bills in detail, the 2007 Congressional Scorecard assigns a grade to each Member of Congress based on his or her support for the middle class."
New York's representatives were more of a mixed bag, weighing in with 9 A+s, 11 As, 3 Bs, 4 Cs, 1 D and 1 F. Check out the grades of the individual members here.
DMI held a press conference/reception for legislators who received As on the scorecard, and several of New York's representatives were in attendance. Check out this video of Rep. John Hall, where he speaks about issues of importance to his constituents and the importance of "tilting the balance of power back towards regular folks." "There is a middle class squeeze going on, and many people who thought they were in the middle class are being squeezed down," he said.
John Hall has sent an editorial to various media outlets outlining his feelings about the present FISA debate. I attended a meeting of local Hall supporters and the Congressman in Dutchess County recently, and he distributed The editorial.
Roll Call is reporting on a NRCC memo that lists 23 House seats and an open seat as targets this fall. Two New York Democrats are on the list, Krsten Gillibrand (NY-20) and Michael Arcuri (NY-24). What's interesting to me is who isn't on the list, John Hall (NY-19). I guess the NRCC, after failing at least three times to recruit a quality self funding challenger to Hall, is basically tossing rookie Kieran Michael Lalor to the wolves and taking a pass on mounting a serious challenge in the 19th.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting 23 Democratic incumbents, including several freshmen, and one open seat, according a memo obtained by Roll Call that was prepared by the NRCC for a March 5 briefing to political action committee officials.
The memo, titled "Two Dozen Reasons the NRCC will Pick Up Seats in 2008," shed some light as to where the NRCC might direct its limited resources in the fall, although the seats included on the committee's target list come as no surprise. The NRCC used the memo to highlight pickup opportunities in the November elections and urge PACs to donate to the committee and help Republicans take back the House.
The full list, which is heavy with freshmen in districts won by Bush in 2004, is in the extended entry...
After striking out at least half a dozen times trying to find a credible challenger for Freshman Rep. John Hall, the GOoPs appear to have at least someone other than Kieran Michael Lalor willing to take the plunge, Westchester County Legislator George Oros.
Rep. John Hall has gained another Republican opponent: Westchester Legislator George Oros.
Oros, a Cortlandt Republican, said today that he intends to enter the race against Hall and will file paperwork formally establishing his candidacy sometime within the next two weeks.
"I think I have electability," Oros told Politics on the Hudson just after today's Board of Legislators' meeting in White Plains. "I've been out there. I'm proven."
Oros, who joined the legislature in 1995, has been considering a possible candidacy for almost two months. He joins Iraq War veteran Kieran Michael Lalor of Peekskill as the only two announced GOP candidates in the 19th Congressional District.
Pardon me for thinking like a Republican, but George Oros sounds suspiciously like "George Soros," the scourge of all things good, holy and wholesomely American. I wonder how many GOoPs in the 19th will mistake them for each other.
Or is it strike five? Honestly, I've lost count. Here's another Republican taking a pass on NY-19.
Republicans have eyed Rep. John Hall's seat almost since the day the Democrat snatched it from one of their own - 12-year incumbent Sue Kelly - in 2006.
Orange County Executive Ed Diana has been mentioned as a possible challenger, but he ended the speculation on Monday during a discussion with the Times Herald-Record editorial board.
"Have I been asked? Yes," he said. "Am I running? No."
Diana's not up for re-election until next year, and he laughed at the notion of announcing his candidacy so soon. But he'd already hinted at his political plans by saying his plan to build a new county government center was a "project for another term."
The only announced Republican candidate for New York's 19th Congressional District is Kieran Michael Lalor, a 31-year-old Iraq veteran from Peekskill. Millionaire Andrew Saul declared his candidacy but backed out of the race, and former state Assemblyman Howard Mills passed.
Freshman Assemblyman Greg Ball has announced that he will not challenge Freshman Rep. John Hall in next year's race for the 19th Congressional seat. At this point, it looks as if the GOP may be stuck with Kieran Michael Lalor's long shot run at the seat. Will the race for NY-19 be a snooze? It's sure starting to look that way.
Freshman state Assemblyman Greg Ball will run for re-election in 2008 and not for Congress, as he had speculated during the past few weeks.
Ball, who defeated longtime Republican Assemblyman Willis Stephens in a primary last year and then went on to best Democrat Ken Harper in the November election, wants another two-year term in Albany.
"A little over a year ago I was elected in a grassroots upset that sent a clear message to the good old boys in Albany and back home. Since my election victory, we have made extraordinary progress by elevating the debate on tough issues like taxes, illegal immigration and dysfunction in Albany. On all of these fronts, and more, we are making a substantial difference and I absolutely love being the assemblyman," said Ball, R-Carmel, in a statement.
Ball had considered running for New York's 19th Congressional District seat, which is currently held by U.S. Rep. John Hall, D-Dover Plains. He even traveled to Washington shortly before Christmas to meet with the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Ball didn't immediately return a telephone call seeking further comment.
So far, Kieran Michael Lalor of Peekskill is the only Republican to announce a bid against Hall.
I've always thought that Hall holds this seat no matter who the GOP decided to run. Now his seat looks like a pretty solid keeper.
Kieran Michael Lalor, who hopes to unseat freshman Rep. John Hall next year is having problems getting anyone to take his candidacy seriously. The NRCC appears to be less than enthused and local GOP bigs aren't exactly jumping on the KML bandwagon just yet. In an effort to finally have someone pay some attention to his fledgling effort, it appears that Mr Lalor is going back to the tried and true GOP playbook by basically just making stuff up. From Lalor's truly awesome blog:
In yet another outside the mainstream vote, Rep. John Hall voted against a measure that would save 2 million American families from paying an average of $2000 to the onerous Alternative Minimum Tax. The same bill included funding for ammunition and supplies for the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Still Hall voted "Nay."
The measure passed the House 272-142. Seventy-Eight Democrats, including Kirstin Gillabrand (sic) from the neighboring 20th Congressional District, voted in favor of the measure. As if his Monday fundraiser at the home MoveOn.org's patron George Soros wasn't enough proof that Hall is well outside the mainstream, voting against tax relief for the middle class and funding for troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan seals the deal.
John Hall did indeed vote against the massive spending bill. In doing so he "voted against" all manner of things, but most specifically he voted against another blank check for the war in Iraq. That said, Hall's record on ammending the Alternative Minimum Tax is quite clear and bears no resemblance whatsoever to the smear Lalor is trying to perpetuate. In fact, here's John Hall in the Congressional Record:
The nineteenth district of New York is one of the districts in this country most affected by the AMT. Last year over 30,000 families in my district paid AMT. I wish we had the support in both the majority, and the minority, that we need to advance the major tax reform necessary to prevent the AMT from unfairly penalizing thousands of families in the Hudson Valley. The "patch" legislation that we considered today is the best legislation that we can pass at this time to prevent more families from being impacted by the AMT, and will ensure that an additional 70,000 families in my district alone will not be hit next year by the AMT.
I am proud that the Democratic Majority in the House of Representatives has twice passed a responsible AMT patch; offsetting the $50 billion in lost revenue from the AMT by eliminating tax loopholes for some of the richest people in the country, who choose to use offshore tax havens to avoid paying their fair share of taxes. However, neither the President nor his allies in Congress are fiscally responsible. They will not accept any legislation that acts responsibly by ensuring that the cost of protecting working families from the AMT will not be borne by their grandchildren. I believe I was elected to Congress last year to help restore fiscal integrity to the federal government, and I stand by the numerous votes I have cast in support of a responsible Pay-Go system.
Although I am deeply disappointed that we will not be able to pass a version of AMT reform with a revenue offset this year. I am unwilling to let working families in my district suffer as a result of the President and the minority in Congress. That is why, despite its obvious inadequacies, I feel that I must support this bill. I am disappointed that we were forced to pass this bill by borrowing the resources to do so. As Congress continues its work in the future, I am committed to working to make sure our government operates within its means and respects the principle of fiscal responsibility.
Trying to paint Hall as an enemy of fixing the AMT is absurd and demonstrates a distinct antipathy to the truth on Mr Lalor's part.
UPDATE: John Hall's statement on yesterday's passing the Temporary Tax Relief Act of 2007, which will provide AMT relief to 73,000 households in NY-19 is on the flip...
Assemblyman Greg Ball has been making the rounds in NY-19 seeking support for a potential challenge to freshman Rep. John Hall. He's even been talking to the NRCC about it. The NRCC is having a hell of a time finding a viable candidate for the race and it seems their top priority is finding one who can self finance their race. There's a good reason for that. They're all but broke. It's also pretty obvious that they aren't exactly enthused about the Ball or the only declared candidate, Kieran Michael Lalor.
Ken Spain from the National Republican Congressional Committee, in an e-mail today, said the committee "doesn't promise money to anyone." Spain was getting back to me on the issue of state Assemblyman Greg Ball, R-Carmel, contemplating a run for Congress. Ball, if you recall, is thinking of challenging Rep. John Hall, D-Dover Plains.
One factor that would figure in his decision, Ball had said, was a financial commitment from the NRCC. Spain said the committee has spoken with both Ball and Republican Kieran Michael Lalor of Peekskill about the race.
"The NRCC doesn't promise money to anyone," Spain wrote. "We make that decision as we draw closer to the election. We've talked with Ball as you know and think he would make a good candidate. We have talked with Lalor as well, but we do not pre-primary endorse."
I'd just like to remind the NRCC that Greg Ball is very creative when it comes to financing his campaigns and doing so in a way that most Congressional Republicans will love.
You may wonder how the neophyte freshman Assemblyman bankrolled his Assembly campaign and why he had so much support from out of state. Ball set up a charity to teach poor kids to play polo (No, really.) and a separate PAC focusing on issues in the district he was running in. He then sold tickets to a charity event attended by those who think teaching poor kids to play polo is an awesome idea. And that's where he displays the type of creativity that the NRCC should take note of.
But why did Ball, 29, now a busy freshman state assemblyman, even want to keep running a youthful charity party several hours from his home district? Perhaps because it helped him win his seat.
The Reliable Source found that a New York political action committee started by Ball -- which later transferred its entire treasury to his campaign -- netted as much as $10,000 by selling tickets to the 2005 Courage Cup. That's four times the amount the polo match raised that year for its prominently advertised beneficiary, Work to Ride, a Philadelphia charity that teaches poor kids to play polo.
It's unclear whether anything about the arrangement was improper. But it shocked several D.C. area Courage Cup ticket buyers, who said they had never heard of the group and were stunned to find their names in Ball's campaign finance records.
"I thought the money was going to kids," said Andrew McKenna."I'd be pretty [infuriated] if I found out this was for a political race."
...
We randomly contacted a dozen of these D.C. donors to ask why they gave to a New York state PAC. None could remember ever hearing of the group, let alone giving it money. But all, as it turned out, had bought tickets to the 2005 Courage Cup, held that year on June 18 in Poolesville, Md.
"I think it was billed as a fundraiser to get kids involved with polo," recalled Britt Jung, who was surprised to find herself listed as a $55 donor to CUEG -- an amount she thinks she spent on her Courage Cup ticket.
"I don't recall supporting him," said Eden Ellis, an acquaintance of Ball's who remembered hearing about his political aspirations but didn't know how $50 in her name ended up in CUEG's filings. "I think I would have remembered that."
...
According to New York state newspaper accounts at the time, Citizens United for Ethical Growth was founded in fall 2004 with Ball as its president. Its goals were to promote "smart growth" and regional planning in the small-town and suburban communities north of New York City, with special concern for traffic congestion on state Route 22. The following April, Ball announced he would run as a Republican for state assembly against a longtime incumbent. In December 2005, CUEG -- then described in its press releases as being led by a Dutchess County, N.Y., landscaper, Frank Chiera -- announced it was transferring its $18,000 in assets to Ball's campaign.
I guess what I'm trying to say, dear friends at the NRCC, is that Greg Ball is a go-getter and certainly worth another look...
Assemblyman Greg Ball appears to be moving ever closer to throwing his hat in the contest for NY-19 against freshman Rep. John Hall. He's been making the rounds in the district and seems to be making some headway with local GOP bigs.
Greg Ball is just finishing his first year in the state Assembly but the Carmel Republican already seems to be considering a new job - U.S. Congressman.
Ball met today with Rockland Republican Chairman Vincent Reda, who is also a vice chairman of the state GOP, to discuss a possible campaign against Rep. John Hall, a freshman Democrat, in the 19th CD. Reda said the meeting came at Ball's request.
"I think he is one of the rising stars in the Republican Party," Reda told Politics on the Hudson this afternoon. "He is making the rounds, seeing all the county chairs."
The GOP has been searching for another candidate to take on Hall since its top recruit, Katonah businessman Andrew Saul, withdrew last month citing personal reasons. So far, the only Republican to formally enter the race is Kieran Michael Lalor, an Iraqi war veteran from Peekskill.
GOP leaders, however, have not rallied behind Lalor's candidacy and are continuing to search for alternatives. Reda said he hopes the party can settle on a candidate by early January.
It'll be interesting to see if Ball can actually raise some significant money. Unlike now departed candidate Andrew Saul, he'll actually have to raise money from others. The NRCC is in no position to be much help. Will republicans be willing to take a bet on a very young candidate with a only a year in the Assembly under his belt? Maybe.
A year ago, NY-19 looked to be an epic battle in 2008. Today? Not so much.
And poor Lalor. The response to his candidacy among local Republicans seems to be, shall we say, less than enthusiastic.
You remember Howard Mills, don't you? He was the poor guy offered up to challenge Chuck Schumer in 2004. He, uh, kinda lost. Badly. Well, now it looks as if he's being courted to make a run at freshman Rep John Hall in NY-19. City Hall News and the intrepid John Celock have the scoop:
Howard Mills, who lost the 2004 U.S. Senate race in the largest landslide in state history, is being courted to challenge Rep. John Hall (D-Orange/Rockland/Westchester) next year.
Republican leaders in New York and Washington have reached out to Mills, a popular former Assembly member and state insurance superintendent, following last week's surprise withdrawal of Metropolitan Transportation Authority Vice Chairman Andrew Saul from the race. A source close to Mills confirmed that he is seriously considering entering the race against Hall, a first-term Democrat who unseated former Rep. Sue Kelly last year.
Mills would likely be seen as the leading contender for the Republican nomination should he decide to make the race.
"The general consensus is that with Orange County being a significant portion of the district, with Howard's former Assembly district encompassing most of that, he would be the best Republican," the source said. "He is being courted right now."
Mills, 43, is believed to be looking to reenter the political arena. He gave up his safe Assembly seat to take on his uphill challenge to U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer (D) in 2004, being rewarded by then-Gov. George Pataki (R) with the cabinet post following the race. Since departing as the state's chief insurance regulator earlier this year, Mills has been working for the accounting powerhouse Deloitte & Touche as a chief insurance industry advisor in their Lower Manhattan offices.
What's interesting to me about this, is that it's blazingly obvious that the GOP powers that be are, shall we say, less than impressed with prospects of the only declared Republican in the race so far, Kieran Michael Lalor.
The little-known Lalor, a teacher and self-described national security activist, is not being seriously considered as a contender for the seat, especially in light of the Mills speculation.
And they're right. Mills could offer a very credible challenge to Hall. His rep is as a moderate (the Conservative party refused to endorse him in '04) and has great name recognition in a large part of the CD. Also, if Mills pulls the trigger here, he could possibly scare off some other heavier hitters who are said to be mulling a run for the seat, namely wingnut extraordinaire Assemblyman Greg Ball and Pataki advisor Mike Finnegan. Mills would likely crush Lalor in a primary.
Wow. Didn't see this one coming. Millionaire Republican fashion magnate Andrew Saul, who was widely expected to essentially self finance his challenge to freshman Rep. John Hall, is dropping out.
In a stunning development, wealthy businessman Andrew Saul (R) is making calls to inform supporters and GOP insiders that he is dropping his candidacy in New York's 19th District. Saul was widely regarded as a strong Republican recruit to take on freshman Democratic Cong. John Hall (D). Saul's ability to self-finance and the Republican-tilt of the district made it a top GOP target. But now, his exit from the race leaves Republicans looking for a credible challenger.
As for that credible challenger, Kieran Michael Lalor ain't it. Will Assemblyman (and wingnut extraordinaire) Greg Ball jump in?
Freshman Rep John Hall (NY-19) has introduced legislation that would cap the number of so called "security contractors" employed in Iraq. These "contractors" have been much in the news lately after a particularly bloody incident in Baghdad where employees of one of the largest and best connected firms, Blackwater International, engaged and killed a number of Iraqis. The situation with these firms and their utter lack of accountability to anyone was bound to explode at some point. The firms operate (at very great expense, mind you) outside of the scope of either the Uniform Code of Military Justice or domestic Iraqi law and this latest incident was recently described as "worse than Abu Ghraib" in terms of its effect on Iraqi public opinion. It's long past time to begin to address the issue of these "contractors". Rep Hall's legislation is one of a number of important first steps in getting a handle on a situation that has long since spiraled out of control.
From an emailed press release:
U.S. Rep. John Hall Introduces Legislation to Freeze Contractor Levels in Iraq
- Hall's Bill Would Prevent Increases in Private Security Contractors -
U.S. Representative John Hall (D-NY19) introduced legislation today that would prevent increases in the number of private security contractors operating in Iraq.
Hall's bill, The Freeze Private Contractors in Iraq Act, would prohibit federal agencies from entering into contracts that would increase the number of private security contractors in Iraq above the number present in Iraq on September 1, 2007.
"It is past the time for us to reduce our involvement in Iraq," said Hall. "As the President is forced to reduce troop levels in Iraq due to a lack of replacement troops, our presence must actually decrease, not be supplemented by an increase in security contractors who operate with little to zero accountability."
Since the beginning of the Iraq War, the use of private security contractors has multiplied exponentially. The number of armed contractors operating in the battle zone is unprecedented in the history of U.S. military engagements. News reports estimate that the number ranges from 20,000 to 50,000 or higher. According to federal spending data, since 2004 federal agencies have paid almost $1 billion to the contractor agency Blackwater USA alone.
Security contractors in Iraq operate outside both the Uniform Code of Military Justice and Iraqi law. During the first year of the American occupation, the American Administrator issued a decree that exempted security companies and their employees from accountability under Iraqi law for deaths and injuries caused in the execution of their duties.
"These private security contractors operate in a virtual no-man's-land when it comes to the law," said Hall. "These guys are running around Iraq accountable to no one, using lethal force against civilians and increasing the animosity Iraqis feel towards Americans, thereby making the situation less safe for American troops in the field."
Hall is a co-sponsor of two bills, H.R. 2740 and H.R. 369, that would establish legal accountability for private security contractors operating in a war zone. H.R. 369, The Transparency and Accountability in Security Contracting Act, would clarify that all private security workers operating under contract (or subcontract) by a government agency in the war zone are subject to the Military Extraterritorial Justice Act (MEJA), which is to be enforced by the Department of Justice. H.R. 2740, would ensure that all contractors working for a U.S. government agency would be covered by federal criminal codes. H.R. 2740 would also establish F.B.I. investigative units in the war zone charged with investigating allegations of misconduct.
