Silver is predicting that the Republicans chances of taking back the House next years are 50/50. Unfortunately, the winds are a-blowing in this country, and the pendulum is a-swingin. Republicans are gonna come out in droves this fall, and Democrats seem to have lost their motivation. We may not get as long on the top as the Republicans did and we need to hunker down now and play defense to keep our seats - and keep the State Senate.
I know we were hoping that the most important seats this year were 3 and 26. But they're not. We could run Jesus Christ himself and he'd probably lose them both. We have at least 7 seats at risk this year:
13: McCain 51-Obama 49 Bush 55-Kerry 45
19: Obama 51-McCain 48 Bush 54-Kerry 45
20: Obama 51-McCain 48 Bush 54-Kerry 46
23: Obama 52-McCain 47 Bush 51-Kerry 47
24: Obama 50-McCain 48 Bush 53-Kerry-47
25: Obama 56-McCain 43 Kerry 50-Bush 48
29: McCain 50-Obama 48 Bush 56-Kerry 42
Now normally, this early in the year, I'd think that the Democrats have a chance to adjust some public priorities, reset the agenda, and change the underlying dynamics of the year. However, our uninspiring Governor, inept Senate Majority Leader (he's gonna lose his own seat), and wildly unpopular Speaker of the House don't seem to be willing to try, so its up to us and our candidates.
If I were Weiner, McCarthy, Bishop, or Higgins, I'd be shoring up as much cash as possible. But the 7 I listed above need to be doing more than that: cash is king, but Get-Out-The-Vote will be what determines whether we finish the year with a 25 seat majority or a 11 seat majority.
I'm worried that no one is thinking about this, and terrified that no one is taking this seriously. If we bury our heads in the sand and try not to think about this, we're no better than that woman in Massachusetts. Two years ago this site was buzzing daily with how to pickup five seats, we won four. Today, we need to hunker down and set our sights on saving these seven seats, and hope we can save at least six. Unless you want to see the Republicans start to have their way again.
It's a hell of an achievement when you think about it. The teabaggers took a seat that had been in Republican hands longer than anyone on the face of the Earth has been alive and lost it. Then, in a brilliant and shrewd maneuver of towering genius, managed to lose it all over again just two weeks later.
It's over. Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, leads by 3,105 votes with 3,072 absentee ballots left to be counted.
So why did Owens win? There were more than a few reasons.
MODERATE VIEWS. It has been repeated over and over again that NY-23 is a moderate, not conservative, district. In fact, if you look at John McHugh, he was known for being more of a moderate Republican. Upstate New York districts tend to get a "conservative" label because usually these districts are red districts with Republican enrollment advantages. But NY-23 isn't your average red district. The 23rd went for President Barack Obama in 2008 and that was with McHugh winning big over the Democratic challenger, Michael Oot. What was clear then is clear now: This district is a moderate district, not a conservative one. And while it wasn't popular at the time, the Democrats picking a moderate independent to run as their candidate was brilliant and a successful strategy from the start.
HOFFMAN'S WEAK CANDIDACY. There will no doubt be conservatives who see Hoffman as their kind of candidate, but he really did run a weak campaign. For someone looking to represent a congressional district, he didn't do anything to appeal to the congressional district. It was the Watertown Daily Times who pointed out that Hoffman was more of a national conservative candidate than a local one. This was true throughout. He was very uninformed on key local issues. He seemed to enjoy going on Glenn Beck (he is Hoffman's mentor, after all) and being talked about on Rush Limbaugh instead of focusing on the people who would really matter: The constituency in NY-23.
SCOZZAFAVA'S EXIT. It was said after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out on Saturday that her votes would probably go to Hoffman. It seems like, at least at first glance, that such an assumption was wrong. Scozzafava is more in line with Owens than Hoffman. I know it might seem unlikely for a Republican to support a Democratic candidate, but people also vote their views. If there is a candidate who is a moderate independent like they are, they will support that person. Bill Owens presented that option.
As an aside, Scozzafava as a candidate is a strong woman who would have served the district well. Admittedly, she wasn't a bad option. She represents the good of the Republican Party and is someone the Republican Party should be modeled after: A moderate or traditional conservative who votes what she believes in. But she faced an uphill battle with the NRCC and conservatives within the Republican Party undermining her campaign. As a result, she wasn't able to maintain a strong campaign and had to pull out. That helped Owens. Either her supporters stayed home or voted for Owens. That's my conclusion.
ISSUES. From the beginning, Owens has been pushing one issue: Jobs. He has mentioned repeatedly his role in creating 2,000 jobs. The economy is an important issue. Owens knew that and hit on it the whole campaign. Hoffman was too busy schmoozing with Fox News. When voters see you talking about job creation, they will listen. Voters need a representative, not a television star.
Owens will serve the district well. They need someone who will fight for them and help the key parts of the district. We now hold 27 of the 29 congressional districts in New York. That is amazing. Only NY-3 (Peter King) and my district, NY-26 (Chris Lee), are in Republican hands.
It's a good night in NY-23. Congratulations to Bill Owens.
With about 70% in, Owens lead continues to grow. Unless Hoffman has many thousands of votes stashed in the St Lawrence county districts where they are having machine problems, I just don't see how he beats Owens. Does Hoffman have a secret Watertown Palinite contingent? I doubt it.
I think the next Congressman from NY-23 is Bill Owens.
As of about an hour ago, Dede Scozzafava has endorsed Bill Owens in the NY-23rd special election. Via Watertown Daily Times:
I want to thank you for your support and friendship. Over the past 24 hours, I have had encouraging words sent to my family and me. Many of you have asked me whom you should support on Tuesday.
Since announcing the suspension of my campaign, I have thought long and hard about what is best for the people of this District, and how to answer your questions. This is not a decision that I have made lightly.
You know me, and throughout my career, I have been always been an independent voice for the people I represent. I have stood for our honest principles, and a truthful discussion of the issues, even when it cost me personally and politically. Since beginning my campaign, I have told you that this election is not about me; it's about the people of this District.
It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.
It's not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh's lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region. I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.
In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.
Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday. To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There's too much at stake in this election to do otherwise.
According to the Watertown Daily Times, former Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has begun encouraging her supporters to now back Democrat Bill Owens in Tuesday's vote.
In her statement Saturday morning, the assemblywoman explained the reasons behind her decision: "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so."
During the day Saturday, she began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for Democrat William L. Owens.
This comes in the context of the Daily Times also switching it's own endorsement from Scozzafava to Owens:
The Watertown Daily Times initially endorsed Ms. Scozzafava as the best-qualified candidate in the race. We still think she is. However, in suspending her campaign she released her supporters' commitment to her. That left voters to choose between Mr. Owens and Mr. Hoffman.
Of the two, Bill Owens is by far the superior and only choice.
...
Mr. Hoffman is running as an ideologue. If he carries out his pledges on earmarks, taxation, labor law reform and other inflexible positions, Northern New York will suffer. This rural district depends on the federal government for an investment in Fort Drum and its soldiers, environmental protection of our international waterway and the Adirondack Park, and the livelihood of all our dairy farmers across the district, among other support. Our representative cannot be locked into rigid promises and policies that would jeopardize these critical sectors of our economy.
When you're talking about three names on the ballot with 14 points up for grabs, it's still anybody's guess as to how things are going to shake out on Tuesday. But this could be a big sign that the moderate Republicans are not happy about the Teabaggers taking over their party.
It did not take long for the NRCC to announce their support of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman after their candidate, Dede Scozzafava, abruptly dropped out of the race. They made the announcement earlier today, with Congressman Pete Sessions (R-TX), head of the NRCC, Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority WHIP Eric Cantor (R-VA) releasing a joint statement calling on Republicans to support Hoffman in the 23rd congressional district.
Here is part of the statement (H/T to TPM):
"With Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspending her campaign, we urge voters to support Doug Hoffman's candidacy in New York's 23rd Congressional District.
"He is the only active candidate in the race who supports lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and opposes Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government-run healthcare, more government and less jobs.
"We look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation."
But this is a different tune that the Republicans are singing. It wasn't long ago that they were defending Scozzafava and attacking Hoffman, saying he lacked "integrity" and "cross party appeal" to win.
Here are some quotes from the NRCC giving their assessment of Hoffman:
"Fortunately, the local Republican county chairs had the foresight to see that Doug Hoffman lacked the integrity and qualities needed to be elected to anything - let alone Congress," Lindsay added. [The Hill, 9/28/09]
The national GOP acknowledges Hoffman and his moneyed supporters make their job harder, but they emphasize Scozzafava is still the favorite.
Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the NRCC, said Hoffman's political calculus doesn't add up.
"We're pleased that the Republican county chairs in New York had the foresight to not even consider Hoffman among the final three candidates, and the Washington-based endorsements and misleading political ads that are meant for his benefit will ultimately backfire on his futile sour-grapes campaign," Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/03/09]
The National Republican Congressional Committee bristles at Mr. Hoffman's campaign, with a spokesman arguing that he's "running a smoke-and-mirrors campaign that has absolutely no path to victory and is based entirely on Washington-based endorsements that carry no weight among voters in central and northern New York."
NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said Mr. Hoffman doesn't even technically live in the district and also said Mr. Hoffman had promised to back the Republican candidate before withdrawing that support and deciding to run.
"At the end of the day, we could not be more pleased that Dede is the only candidate who possesses the principles and cross-party appeal that is needed to win in this swing district," Mr. Lindsay added. [Washington Times, 10/06/09]
"There is still a path to victory, and we will continue to support [Scozzafava]," NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/26/09]
Some conservatives support Scozzafava, insisting that a one-size-fits-all strategy isn't a good approach to districts such as New York 23.
"Outside endorsements will not change the fact that she's the only candidate with the cross party appeal that can win this swing district," said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. McClatchy, 10/30/09
Amazing what one day will do to the NRCC's approach. One day they are backing their candidate saying she can still win while standing by their past opinions of Hoffman and the next day, they are already welcoming Hoffman to the House GOP conference.
Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.
The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate.
"Today, I again seek to act for the good of our community," Ms. Scozzafava wrote in a letter to friends and supporters. "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations."
Ms. Scozzafava told the Watertown Daily Times that Siena Research Institute poll numbers show her too far behind to catch up - and she lacks enough money to spend on advertising in the last three days to make a difference. Mr. Owens has support from 36 percent of likely voters in the poll, with Mr. Hoffman garnering 35 percent support. Ms. Scozzafava has support from 20 percent of those polled.
A GOP source tells TPM that the National Republican Congressional Committee is going to get behind Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 special election, now that moderate Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava has dropped out.
Hoffman is in a close race with Democrat Bill Owens, and Scozzafava suspended her campaign today after polls showed her in third place. With the NRCC's backing, Hoffman will go from insurgent third-party candidate to being the de facto new Republican nominee.
NRCC chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) will have a statement out shortly.
This is an unconfirmed rumor, so take it for what little it's worth. However, according to the reports of one right-wing activist on the ground in the NY-23d district is that the National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling out of the district days ahead of the vote next Tuesday.
The NRCC has been one of Scozzafava's only serious backers inside the party, with a reported plan to spend $300,000 on her campaign. Whether that actually happened is anyone's guess, but if true, an NRCC withdrawal would probably spell doom for Scozzafava.
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has run a far-right campaign. That is not "breaking news." The goal of his campaign is to run to the right of Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava, who is more of a traditional conservative or moderate (instead of a neo-conservative), based on her record.
One of the targets of Hoffman's campaign has been Scozzafava's alleged liberalism. Apparently, being pro-choice and pro-marriage equality qualifies you as a liberal even if the rest of your record isn't necessarily progressive.
Like Scozzafava, Pataki is pro-choice. When Pataki was being mentioned as a possible 2008 presidential candidate, the issue of abortion and his standing as a pro-choice Republican was seen as a weakness in the GOP primary. While he isn't supportive of marriage equality, Pataki is supportive of equal rights and believes that individuals in the gay community should be protected. He came out in opposition to a constitutional amendment banning marriage equality and during his time as governor, signed legislation that would provide protections to members of the gay, lesbian and bisexual communities.
Pataki also proved that he is no friend of the tobacco industry. He proposed raising taxes on cigarettes to help cover costs associated with health care in New York.
In perhaps the best example of just where Pataki stands among the far-right, Human Events came out with their Top Ten RINOs rankings in December 2005. Number six on the top ten list? Governor George Pataki.
Here's what Human Events had to say about him:
Helped unions raise pay and unionize Indian casinos. Has said, "I believe in a limited government, low taxes, a tough approach to crime. ... But I also believe in an activist government. I'm not one of those laissez-faire types."
Pataki was joined on that list by Mitt Romney, who was then governor of Massachusetts. He did have good company: Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island was number one and New York Congressman Sherwood Boehlert was also on the list. Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) was on the list too, along with Maine's duo of moderate senators: Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.
Who does the Pataki endorsement help more? Apparently, Pataki. Endorsing a right-winger might get him in the door with other members of the Palin Party. But a quick look at his past shows that he hasn't been a good friend to the right-wingers in the past and they haven't exactly been welcoming to him either.
In Hoffman's case, this endorsement raises a good question: If Scozzafava is bad because she is a "liberal" Republican, why is Pataki's endorsement a good thing? Better yet, was it even solicited? Will it be seen on the list of other endorsements, which include Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and other members of the Palin Party?
I can't imagine they would tout this endorsement. Pataki has a lot of similarities to Dede Scozzafava. So Hoffman being endorsed by Pataki is like Hoffman being endorsed by well, Dede Scozzafava. And since she is an evil liberal Republican, that's not a good thing (at least for him).
I can't say I saw this one coming. It seems that George Pataki has decided to embrace the wingnuts and make common cause with the likes of Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Michelle Bachman, Pat Buchanan, Michelle Malkin and Rick Perry by endorsing Con candidate and teabagger darling Doug Hoffman.
As someone personally engaged in the way of life in the Adirondacks and Northern New York, I'm deeply concerned about the course of our nation and the outcome of the election in the 23rd Congressional District.
Simply put, we cannot afford to give another vote to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid we cannot afford another vote for higher taxes, we cannot afford another vote for government run health care and we absolutely cannot afford another vote to take away from hard working men and women the right to secret ballot.
That is why tonight, I'm proud to endorse Doug Hoffman, a Republican, running on the Conservative line for Congress in the 23rd Congressional District.
So, Pataki is making nice with the teabagging fringe by endorsing their flavor of the month. Here's what I want to know: why? To what end? Why is one of the last moderate Republicans, a man with next to nothing in common with the Malkin wing of the GOP, jumping into this race on their side?
The special election in NY-23, like the spring's special election in NY-20, has been heralded as nationally significant, in ways that other special elections this year have not.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand helped Scott Murphy win NY-20, with political and fund-raising advice, a TV ad, and several appearances.
And she will be helping NY-23 Democratic candidate Bill Owens tomorrow with an appearance at Tug Hill Vineyards in Lowville, in the western part of this sprawling district.
A new Research 2000 poll commissioned by Daily Kos shows that the mess in the NY-23rd special election is getting nothing but messier. Compared to the previous poll, Democrat Bill Owens is again statistically tied--but this time, it's with Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Owens takes 33%, Hoffman 32%, and Republican Dede Scozzafava has slipped down to a distant third with 21% of the vote. Scozzafava and Hoffman were nearly reversed in the last poll, with the Republican getting 30% and the Conservative 23% respectively.
Undecideds in the new poll clocked in at 14%, making the whole thing very much up in the air.
Clearly, Scozzafava has suffered under the combination of the constant teabagging, the far-right endorsements of Hoffman--who has now taken the lead among registered Republicans--and the failure of her campaign to manage events.
I'll tell you what Dede should have done: Run as a Democrat. God knows there's more tolerance for diversity of opinion and moderates over here than there is back in the Republican caucus.
NY Teabag Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long made an appearance on Hardball this Friday and did his best Sarah Palin impersonation, i.e. not saying anything of substance about ANYTHING.
This race just keeps getting more fun to watch. The late breaking news tonight is that Caribou Barbie herself has endorsed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. That's right. The GOP's most recent VP nominee just declined to endorse the GOP's candidate and went on and gave her blessing to the teabagger. The ever awesome Weekly Standard has the scoop.
THE WEEKLY STANDARD just received a statement from Sarah Palin endorsing conservative Doug Hoffman for Congress:
The people of the 23rd Congressional District of New York are ready to shake things up, and Doug Hoffman is coming on strong as Election Day approaches! He needs our help now.
The votes of every member of Congress affect every American, so it's important for all of us to pay attention to this important Congressional campaign in upstate New York. I am very pleased to announce my support for Doug Hoffman in his fight to be the next Representative from New York's 23rd Congressional district. It's my honor to endorse Doug and to do what I can to help him win, including having my political action committee, SarahPAC, donate to his campaign the maximum contribution allowed by law.
Our nation is at a crossroads, and this is once again a "time for choosing."
I wonder if she can see Watertown from her house?
I'm not kidding when I say that I'm going to be sorry to see this one end.
I feel badly for Dede Scozzafava, I really do. She's been stuck with the position of trying to run as a moderate Republican in today's GOP climate. If the GOP is ever going to regain it's former status as, well, a party made up of more than kooks and racists, then it's desperately going to need people like her leading the charge back to the middle.
Unfortunately for her--and for the future of the Republican Party--that doesn't look too likely at this point. Under barrages from both the right and the left, Scozzafava's campaign seems to be coming apart under the strain.
Although the story is from Politico (and thus untrustworthy until proven otherwise), the Scozzafava campaign confirmed that they did call the police on a particularly aggressive reporter from the Weekly Standard. Since we have no objective account of the incident, it's hard to tell whether the police intervention was justified, but either way it's not going to sit well with a conservative base that already wasn't happy with the candidate's moderate tendencies.
Today Scozzafava, apparently trying to regain the initiative, went to Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman's headquarters to stage a photo op, demanding that Hoffman engage in more debates.
This was one of the classic blunders.
Everybody knows that you don't go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line, but only slightly less well known is this: never give your opponent free advertising. Such as, say, allowing your photo op and couple of supporters to be overrun and hijacked by the medium-sized horde of sign-bearing campaign workers that usually are present in campaign HQs.
With election day less than two weeks away, little committment from the national party, and more missteps with the base, I don't envy Scozzafava the position she's in. It's not going to be pretty.
UPDATE: Just to complete the job of brewing up a civil war between the sane and lunatic wings of the GOP, Glenn Beck decided to stick his head in and declare that Scozzafava was "endorsed by... an arm of ACORN!" (Oooh, boooga booga!), and "isn't a Republican."
Of course, being Glenn Beck, he manages to sound bat-shit crazy while he's saying it, first claiming not to follow "local" elections, then pulling out Scozzafava's previous WFP endorsement which he'd obviously been prepped on, then saying he knew nothing about her (not even apparently knowing at first that "he" was a "she"). He rounded out his loonery by saying "She's John McCain or Barack Obama." Which doesn't even make sense as a sentence, but then again, it's Glenn Beck.
"The special election for the 23rd Congressional District is an important test leading up to the mid-term 2010 elections," Gingrich said in a statement to supporters. "Our best chance to put responsible and principled leaders in Washington starts here, with Dede Scozzafava."
There are conservatives who don't want anything to do with Scozzafava. But Republican Party leaders don't want to come off as abandoning their candidate. The problem, of course, is that the conservatives in the party are questioning why the party is backing someone who is pro-choice, pro-equality and closer to the middle than most of the party's current leadership.
It has been said that this race is a referendum on President Barack Obama. I actually think it is the opposite. It is a referendum on the Republican Party.
In NY-20, Republicans put up a fairly well known candidate (Assemblyman Jim Tedisco) who was, at the time, minority leader of the Assembly. His opponent was Scott Murphy, someone who had never served in elected office and had to build up a profile to be considered a serious candidate. With hard work, Murphy won.
There is a similar situation brewing in NY-23, although we aren't going to count our chickens before they hatch. An elected official, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, is running on the Republican and the Democrats put up another non-elected official in businessman Bill Owens. Scozzafava's support has been questionable and Owens has taken advantage of the conservative revolt and built up a lead in this race.
This isn't about Obama. This is about the Republicans. They have work to do and they are throwing their candidate under the bus.
So why did Owens win? There were more than a few reasons.
