The National Organization for Marriage (NOM) has long exploited Republican Dede Scozzafava's defeat in a 2009 Special Election in New York's 23th Congressional District to its fullest to serve as a warning to politicians to tow the line on denying marriage equality.
Maggie Gallagher loves to use the phrase "the Dede effect" to scare lawmakers from voting for same-sex marriage legislation, and it's been very effective.
NOM as sought to raise Scozzafava to iconic status as the electoral boogeyman of same-sex marriage. NOM loves to press the talking point that gay-friendly = Electoral Death.
And they're doing it again, seeking to make Scozzafava's loss all about her vote for marriage equality in the New York Assembly House. The new ad says:
But when Dede faced the voters again as a congressional candidate, she learned that New Yorkers do care about defending traditional marriage after all.
Actually. . . NOM? Not so much.
Those of us in New York who watched the race closely, know there was so much more to the story than just her one vote on marriage equality, which scarcely registered at all amidst all her other campaign problems and problematic policy positions.
There were a lot of reasons Republican Scozzafava lost that race. The very least of them her vote on marriage equality. Scozzafava failed to connect with her Republican base for a great number of affronts to conservative principles which ran far and wide, encompassing much, much more than just her support of marriage equality.
Since NOM is an out-of-state special interest group, it's understandable they wouldn't know the truth of the race. The real story from a real New Yorker after the fold.
Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.
The categories are:
NY-Sen: Schumer vs. Townsend percentage
NY-Sen: Gillibrand vs. DioGuardi percentage
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
NY-AG: Schneiderman vs. Donovan
NY-Comptroller: DiNapoli vs. Wilson
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-20: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
NY-24: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan
Here are my predictions:
US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.
US House: 218 D 217 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.
NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-AG: Schneiderman wins, 53-47
NY-Comptroller: Dinapoli wins, 52-48
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-20:Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
NY-24: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.
Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally, and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory in the waiting.
What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!
Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.
The categories are:
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-23: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
NY-24: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan
Here are my predictions:
US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.
US House: 220 D 218 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.
NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-23: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
NY-24: Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.
Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally , and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory int he waiting.
What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!
First off, the trash has been carted off to the dump. The single most foul, offensive, miserable, and corrupt waste of flesh has been removed from our legislature. Everybody who contributed to his ousting, from reformers to unions and the WFP to all the volunteers and voters who looked at this abysmal sleazy excuse for a human being and roundly said enough is enough, should be commended for their contribution. A clear message has been sent to the rest of the pack up there that you cannot get away with just anything.
The GOP nominated Carl Paladino for Governor. But the great thing is that Rick Lazio won the Conservative nomination, thus making it even more impossible for Cuomo not to win, not even considering Paladino's history of racism and general wingnut teabagging lunacy.
It appears Eric Schneiderman will pull out the AG race. This is a very good thing. Schneiderman has been a lifelong reformer. I am very happy to think that the man who had Hiram Monserratte's scalp will now fill a position with powers to regulate all of Albany.
Unfortunately, Ruben Diaz Sr. soundly defeated Charlie Ramos, 81-19 at this point. What we've learned from the Pedro race and the Squadron/Connor and Newell/Shelly races from 08 is that pork-spewing incumbent legislators can be defeated, but it involves a full-court press by reformers, democratic clubs, unions, and the WFP. If that full spectrum coalition isn't all behind the challenger, it is unlikely that incumbents lose. Another anti-gay Senator, Shirley Huntley beat challenger Lynn Nunes by an over 2-1 margin.
Charlie Rangel won re-election. Rangel certainly doesn't deserve this victory but it was clear this would happen with the divided nature and weak candidates of the opposition.
Crazy person Greg Ball won his GOP primary for the 40th Senate District to face rockstar Mike Kaplowitz in November.
Doug Hoffman is losing the GOP nomination for NY-23 but will ensure we keep the seat because he will run on the third-party Conservative line.
Carolyn Maloney soundly defeated Reshma Saujani. Saujani could have tapped into an anti-incumbent mood this year but was defined early as the pro-wall street candidate and never shook that association.
Bill Stachowski lost to a Steve Pigeon candidate. Stach was stupid for voting against marriage equality and for that he deserves to lose. But Tim Kennedy didn't deserve to win. It would have been better if that pro-equality energy were directed at Ruben Diaz Sr. instead.
Overall, I'm sad that Diaz Sr. won by such a large margin but the race in the neighboring 33rd district took most of the reform resources. Next time, that might not be the case. In many of the other races, the best result happened for us happened, so everyone should feel good after today's results. Nights like these are what make politics great.
After electing a Democrat to a Republican seat for the first time in forever, North Country Cons seem poised to split their vote once again and return Bill Owens to Congress again in what is shaping up to be a tough year for Dem incumbents. It seems they just can't help themselves. Again.
Well, Republicans are set to split the ballot again this November: not only has Hoffman been assured to have the Conservative line again, but now the Independence Party has given their line to Republican Matt Doheny. That means that no matter who wins the primary this September for the official Republican line, the GOP will have at least two viable candidates splitting the center-right vote.
Seems they haven't learned much up there. Liz Benjamin has more:
The state Independence Party has endorsed Republican Matt Doheny's challenge to Democratic Rep. Bill Owens in NY-23 - a move that could prove significant in the GOP's effort to win back the North Country seat it had held for over a century until last year's special election loss.
...
Doheny is fighting Doug Hoffman for the GOP line against Owens. The Conservative Party, which backed Hoffman against Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava in the special election, is so far sticking with him this time around, too.
That's in spite of the fact that local Republican leaders have complained Hoffman isn't working hard enough and are behind Doheny.
The Indys backed Assemblywoman Scozzafava last year, and were stuck with her after she was pushed out of the race by the more conservative Hoffman just days before the election.
It's still not a gimme, but I think Bill Owens must again be thanking his lucky stars.
Silver is predicting that the Republicans chances of taking back the House next years are 50/50. Unfortunately, the winds are a-blowing in this country, and the pendulum is a-swingin. Republicans are gonna come out in droves this fall, and Democrats seem to have lost their motivation. We may not get as long on the top as the Republicans did and we need to hunker down now and play defense to keep our seats - and keep the State Senate.
I know we were hoping that the most important seats this year were 3 and 26. But they're not. We could run Jesus Christ himself and he'd probably lose them both. We have at least 7 seats at risk this year:
13: McCain 51-Obama 49 Bush 55-Kerry 45
19: Obama 51-McCain 48 Bush 54-Kerry 45
20: Obama 51-McCain 48 Bush 54-Kerry 46
23: Obama 52-McCain 47 Bush 51-Kerry 47
24: Obama 50-McCain 48 Bush 53-Kerry-47
25: Obama 56-McCain 43 Kerry 50-Bush 48
29: McCain 50-Obama 48 Bush 56-Kerry 42
Now normally, this early in the year, I'd think that the Democrats have a chance to adjust some public priorities, reset the agenda, and change the underlying dynamics of the year. However, our uninspiring Governor, inept Senate Majority Leader (he's gonna lose his own seat), and wildly unpopular Speaker of the House don't seem to be willing to try, so its up to us and our candidates.
If I were Weiner, McCarthy, Bishop, or Higgins, I'd be shoring up as much cash as possible. But the 7 I listed above need to be doing more than that: cash is king, but Get-Out-The-Vote will be what determines whether we finish the year with a 25 seat majority or a 11 seat majority.
I'm worried that no one is thinking about this, and terrified that no one is taking this seriously. If we bury our heads in the sand and try not to think about this, we're no better than that woman in Massachusetts. Two years ago this site was buzzing daily with how to pickup five seats, we won four. Today, we need to hunker down and set our sights on saving these seven seats, and hope we can save at least six. Unless you want to see the Republicans start to have their way again.
It's a hell of an achievement when you think about it. The teabaggers took a seat that had been in Republican hands longer than anyone on the face of the Earth has been alive and lost it. Then, in a brilliant and shrewd maneuver of towering genius, managed to lose it all over again just two weeks later.
It's over. Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, leads by 3,105 votes with 3,072 absentee ballots left to be counted.
So why did Owens win? There were more than a few reasons.
MODERATE VIEWS. It has been repeated over and over again that NY-23 is a moderate, not conservative, district. In fact, if you look at John McHugh, he was known for being more of a moderate Republican. Upstate New York districts tend to get a "conservative" label because usually these districts are red districts with Republican enrollment advantages. But NY-23 isn't your average red district. The 23rd went for President Barack Obama in 2008 and that was with McHugh winning big over the Democratic challenger, Michael Oot. What was clear then is clear now: This district is a moderate district, not a conservative one. And while it wasn't popular at the time, the Democrats picking a moderate independent to run as their candidate was brilliant and a successful strategy from the start.
HOFFMAN'S WEAK CANDIDACY. There will no doubt be conservatives who see Hoffman as their kind of candidate, but he really did run a weak campaign. For someone looking to represent a congressional district, he didn't do anything to appeal to the congressional district. It was the Watertown Daily Times who pointed out that Hoffman was more of a national conservative candidate than a local one. This was true throughout. He was very uninformed on key local issues. He seemed to enjoy going on Glenn Beck (he is Hoffman's mentor, after all) and being talked about on Rush Limbaugh instead of focusing on the people who would really matter: The constituency in NY-23.
SCOZZAFAVA'S EXIT. It was said after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out on Saturday that her votes would probably go to Hoffman. It seems like, at least at first glance, that such an assumption was wrong. Scozzafava is more in line with Owens than Hoffman. I know it might seem unlikely for a Republican to support a Democratic candidate, but people also vote their views. If there is a candidate who is a moderate independent like they are, they will support that person. Bill Owens presented that option.
As an aside, Scozzafava as a candidate is a strong woman who would have served the district well. Admittedly, she wasn't a bad option. She represents the good of the Republican Party and is someone the Republican Party should be modeled after: A moderate or traditional conservative who votes what she believes in. But she faced an uphill battle with the NRCC and conservatives within the Republican Party undermining her campaign. As a result, she wasn't able to maintain a strong campaign and had to pull out. That helped Owens. Either her supporters stayed home or voted for Owens. That's my conclusion.
ISSUES. From the beginning, Owens has been pushing one issue: Jobs. He has mentioned repeatedly his role in creating 2,000 jobs. The economy is an important issue. Owens knew that and hit on it the whole campaign. Hoffman was too busy schmoozing with Fox News. When voters see you talking about job creation, they will listen. Voters need a representative, not a television star.
Owens will serve the district well. They need someone who will fight for them and help the key parts of the district. We now hold 27 of the 29 congressional districts in New York. That is amazing. Only NY-3 (Peter King) and my district, NY-26 (Chris Lee), are in Republican hands.
It's a good night in NY-23. Congratulations to Bill Owens.
With about 70% in, Owens lead continues to grow. Unless Hoffman has many thousands of votes stashed in the St Lawrence county districts where they are having machine problems, I just don't see how he beats Owens. Does Hoffman have a secret Watertown Palinite contingent? I doubt it.
I think the next Congressman from NY-23 is Bill Owens.
As of about an hour ago, Dede Scozzafava has endorsed Bill Owens in the NY-23rd special election. Via Watertown Daily Times:
I want to thank you for your support and friendship. Over the past 24 hours, I have had encouraging words sent to my family and me. Many of you have asked me whom you should support on Tuesday.
Since announcing the suspension of my campaign, I have thought long and hard about what is best for the people of this District, and how to answer your questions. This is not a decision that I have made lightly.
You know me, and throughout my career, I have been always been an independent voice for the people I represent. I have stood for our honest principles, and a truthful discussion of the issues, even when it cost me personally and politically. Since beginning my campaign, I have told you that this election is not about me; it's about the people of this District.
It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.
It's not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh's lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region. I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.
In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.
Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday. To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There's too much at stake in this election to do otherwise.
According to the Watertown Daily Times, former Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has begun encouraging her supporters to now back Democrat Bill Owens in Tuesday's vote.
In her statement Saturday morning, the assemblywoman explained the reasons behind her decision: "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so."
During the day Saturday, she began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for Democrat William L. Owens.
This comes in the context of the Daily Times also switching it's own endorsement from Scozzafava to Owens:
The Watertown Daily Times initially endorsed Ms. Scozzafava as the best-qualified candidate in the race. We still think she is. However, in suspending her campaign she released her supporters' commitment to her. That left voters to choose between Mr. Owens and Mr. Hoffman.
Of the two, Bill Owens is by far the superior and only choice.
...
Mr. Hoffman is running as an ideologue. If he carries out his pledges on earmarks, taxation, labor law reform and other inflexible positions, Northern New York will suffer. This rural district depends on the federal government for an investment in Fort Drum and its soldiers, environmental protection of our international waterway and the Adirondack Park, and the livelihood of all our dairy farmers across the district, among other support. Our representative cannot be locked into rigid promises and policies that would jeopardize these critical sectors of our economy.
When you're talking about three names on the ballot with 14 points up for grabs, it's still anybody's guess as to how things are going to shake out on Tuesday. But this could be a big sign that the moderate Republicans are not happy about the Teabaggers taking over their party.
It did not take long for the NRCC to announce their support of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman after their candidate, Dede Scozzafava, abruptly dropped out of the race. They made the announcement earlier today, with Congressman Pete Sessions (R-TX), head of the NRCC, Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority WHIP Eric Cantor (R-VA) releasing a joint statement calling on Republicans to support Hoffman in the 23rd congressional district.
Here is part of the statement (H/T to TPM):
"With Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspending her campaign, we urge voters to support Doug Hoffman's candidacy in New York's 23rd Congressional District.
"He is the only active candidate in the race who supports lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and opposes Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government-run healthcare, more government and less jobs.
"We look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation."
But this is a different tune that the Republicans are singing. It wasn't long ago that they were defending Scozzafava and attacking Hoffman, saying he lacked "integrity" and "cross party appeal" to win.
Here are some quotes from the NRCC giving their assessment of Hoffman:
"Fortunately, the local Republican county chairs had the foresight to see that Doug Hoffman lacked the integrity and qualities needed to be elected to anything - let alone Congress," Lindsay added. [The Hill, 9/28/09]
The national GOP acknowledges Hoffman and his moneyed supporters make their job harder, but they emphasize Scozzafava is still the favorite.
Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the NRCC, said Hoffman's political calculus doesn't add up.
"We're pleased that the Republican county chairs in New York had the foresight to not even consider Hoffman among the final three candidates, and the Washington-based endorsements and misleading political ads that are meant for his benefit will ultimately backfire on his futile sour-grapes campaign," Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/03/09]
The National Republican Congressional Committee bristles at Mr. Hoffman's campaign, with a spokesman arguing that he's "running a smoke-and-mirrors campaign that has absolutely no path to victory and is based entirely on Washington-based endorsements that carry no weight among voters in central and northern New York."
NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said Mr. Hoffman doesn't even technically live in the district and also said Mr. Hoffman had promised to back the Republican candidate before withdrawing that support and deciding to run.
"At the end of the day, we could not be more pleased that Dede is the only candidate who possesses the principles and cross-party appeal that is needed to win in this swing district," Mr. Lindsay added. [Washington Times, 10/06/09]
"There is still a path to victory, and we will continue to support [Scozzafava]," NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/26/09]
Some conservatives support Scozzafava, insisting that a one-size-fits-all strategy isn't a good approach to districts such as New York 23.
"Outside endorsements will not change the fact that she's the only candidate with the cross party appeal that can win this swing district," said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. McClatchy, 10/30/09
Amazing what one day will do to the NRCC's approach. One day they are backing their candidate saying she can still win while standing by their past opinions of Hoffman and the next day, they are already welcoming Hoffman to the House GOP conference.
Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.
The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate.
"Today, I again seek to act for the good of our community," Ms. Scozzafava wrote in a letter to friends and supporters. "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations."
Ms. Scozzafava told the Watertown Daily Times that Siena Research Institute poll numbers show her too far behind to catch up - and she lacks enough money to spend on advertising in the last three days to make a difference. Mr. Owens has support from 36 percent of likely voters in the poll, with Mr. Hoffman garnering 35 percent support. Ms. Scozzafava has support from 20 percent of those polled.
A GOP source tells TPM that the National Republican Congressional Committee is going to get behind Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 special election, now that moderate Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava has dropped out.
Hoffman is in a close race with Democrat Bill Owens, and Scozzafava suspended her campaign today after polls showed her in third place. With the NRCC's backing, Hoffman will go from insurgent third-party candidate to being the de facto new Republican nominee.
NRCC chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) will have a statement out shortly.
This is an unconfirmed rumor, so take it for what little it's worth. However, according to the reports of one right-wing activist on the ground in the NY-23d district is that the National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling out of the district days ahead of the vote next Tuesday.
The NRCC has been one of Scozzafava's only serious backers inside the party, with a reported plan to spend $300,000 on her campaign. Whether that actually happened is anyone's guess, but if true, an NRCC withdrawal would probably spell doom for Scozzafava.
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has run a far-right campaign. That is not "breaking news." The goal of his campaign is to run to the right of Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava, who is more of a traditional conservative or moderate (instead of a neo-conservative), based on her record.
One of the targets of Hoffman's campaign has been Scozzafava's alleged liberalism. Apparently, being pro-choice and pro-marriage equality qualifies you as a liberal even if the rest of your record isn't necessarily progressive.
Like Scozzafava, Pataki is pro-choice. When Pataki was being mentioned as a possible 2008 presidential candidate, the issue of abortion and his standing as a pro-choice Republican was seen as a weakness in the GOP primary. While he isn't supportive of marriage equality, Pataki is supportive of equal rights and believes that individuals in the gay community should be protected. He came out in opposition to a constitutional amendment banning marriage equality and during his time as governor, signed legislation that would provide protections to members of the gay, lesbian and bisexual communities.
Pataki also proved that he is no friend of the tobacco industry. He proposed raising taxes on cigarettes to help cover costs associated with health care in New York.
In perhaps the best example of just where Pataki stands among the far-right, Human Events came out with their Top Ten RINOs rankings in December 2005. Number six on the top ten list? Governor George Pataki.
Here's what Human Events had to say about him:
Helped unions raise pay and unionize Indian casinos. Has said, "I believe in a limited government, low taxes, a tough approach to crime. ... But I also believe in an activist government. I'm not one of those laissez-faire types."
Pataki was joined on that list by Mitt Romney, who was then governor of Massachusetts. He did have good company: Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island was number one and New York Congressman Sherwood Boehlert was also on the list. Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) was on the list too, along with Maine's duo of moderate senators: Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.
Who does the Pataki endorsement help more? Apparently, Pataki. Endorsing a right-winger might get him in the door with other members of the Palin Party. But a quick look at his past shows that he hasn't been a good friend to the right-wingers in the past and they haven't exactly been welcoming to him either.
In Hoffman's case, this endorsement raises a good question: If Scozzafava is bad because she is a "liberal" Republican, why is Pataki's endorsement a good thing? Better yet, was it even solicited? Will it be seen on the list of other endorsements, which include Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and other members of the Palin Party?
I can't imagine they would tout this endorsement. Pataki has a lot of similarities to Dede Scozzafava. So Hoffman being endorsed by Pataki is like Hoffman being endorsed by well, Dede Scozzafava. And since she is an evil liberal Republican, that's not a good thing (at least for him).
I can't say I saw this one coming. It seems that George Pataki has decided to embrace the wingnuts and make common cause with the likes of Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Michelle Bachman, Pat Buchanan, Michelle Malkin and Rick Perry by endorsing Con candidate and teabagger darling Doug Hoffman.
As someone personally engaged in the way of life in the Adirondacks and Northern New York, I'm deeply concerned about the course of our nation and the outcome of the election in the 23rd Congressional District.
Simply put, we cannot afford to give another vote to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid we cannot afford another vote for higher taxes, we cannot afford another vote for government run health care and we absolutely cannot afford another vote to take away from hard working men and women the right to secret ballot.
That is why tonight, I'm proud to endorse Doug Hoffman, a Republican, running on the Conservative line for Congress in the 23rd Congressional District.
So, Pataki is making nice with the teabagging fringe by endorsing their flavor of the month. Here's what I want to know: why? To what end? Why is one of the last moderate Republicans, a man with next to nothing in common with the Malkin wing of the GOP, jumping into this race on their side?
The special election in NY-23, like the spring's special election in NY-20, has been heralded as nationally significant, in ways that other special elections this year have not.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand helped Scott Murphy win NY-20, with political and fund-raising advice, a TV ad, and several appearances.
And she will be helping NY-23 Democratic candidate Bill Owens tomorrow with an appearance at Tug Hill Vineyards in Lowville, in the western part of this sprawling district.
So why did Owens win? There were more than a few reasons.
