In the end, it wasn't even particularly close. The GOP just lost a R+6 district even though Karl Rove dumped a ton of Crossroads money into it to protect a wealthy self-funding candidate. The Dems even seemingly did all they could to lose this one early on. They gave the GOP and Corwin a full month's head start. Even then, state and local Dems seemed not to care much one way or the other by rather conspicuously staying out of the fray. Hell, even Cuomo didn't jump in until last weekend. It seems it was our Junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand who really was the first to take up the cause, back when no one else seemed likely to do so. Fortunately, many other big name Dems followed her lead.
It's really hard to overstate just how huge this win is. Given the partisan makeup of the district, the fact that just a few cycles ago, it was held by the head of the NRCC, the fact that the GOP candidate had tons of her own money to spend, the fact that the local Dems seemingly couldn't get their shit together enough to even pick a candidate - it's all pretty amazing when you think about it.
I guess the fist big tell was when Rove's Crossroads corporate money group decided they needed to get involved in a major way. That showed some desperation. They knew that this was indeed becoming a referendum on the Ryan plan to end Medicare as we know it, much like the NY-20 special election to replace Gillibrand had become a referendum on the stimulus (we won that one) and how the NY-23 special election became a referendum on Health Care Reform (we won that one too.)
But all Rove's horses and Rove's men couldn't pull Corwin's ass out of the Ryan Plan fire. And now the GOP owns the Ryan plan, whether they like it or not. Congrats, assholes!
Hochul's win tonight - or, more importantly, the GOP's loss in a race that was theirs for the taking all along - should send major shivers down the spines of Republicans nationwide. This was their race to lose and they lost it, handily. There's just no other way to put it.
And they (and we) have the Ryan plan to thank for it. Seems folks don't much like congressman with Cadillac health insurance screwing with, much less essentially abolishing, the healthcare security that Americans have come to count on their later years.
And that, friends, is how the GOP came to lose yet another special election in New York that should have been, on paper, a cakewalk. They're 0-3 in that department in the last few years.
I'm going to do my best to keep up. Also, the good folks at WNYMedia.net, including blogger rock star Buffalo Pundit are covering the results as well. It's their turf and they rock.
Kathy Hochul (D) - 40,932 - 48%
Jane Corwin (R) - 36,210 - 43%
Crazy Jack Davis (Batshit) - 7,110 - 8%
Ian Murphy (Awesome) - 925 - 1%
% precincts precincts reporting - 82%
UPDATE: 9:38 pm. I'm calling this one. Hochul wins, no recount. Corwin can't win the way she is underperforming in the GLOW counties.
Thanks, Paul Ryan.
UPDATE II: 10:02 pm The AP has called the race for Hochul.
After a week of soaking up some sun on a beach in an undisclosed location, I'm back and ready to go for tonight'selection results from NY-26. There are plenty of story lines to talk about with this one and I hope you'll be around to shoot the breeze on all of 'em.
So check back tonight shortly after 9pm for the latest tallies and served with Grade A snark.
I'll leave you with this nugget from the wingnuts at Hot Air that I wanted to mention whilst I was lounging on that aforementioned beach.
I contacted a political consultant - who chose not to be identified - who is not involved in this election, but has worked on several upstate NY Congressional races to get his take on it. "I don't see anything wrong with the sample at all," he said. " I can't talk about it publicly, but we're going to lose that race."
--Emphasis in the original.
Fingers are crossed, but I have a good feeling about this one.
UPDATE: Turnout looks strong in Erie County, which is good news for Hochul. She really needs to run up the score there:
5:34 p.m.: Erie County turnout has already been strong in the Democratic-leaning area - even before the heavy post-work voting hours began.
Election officials said at 4:30 p.m. turnout was estimated to be between 18 and 20 percent. The district's largest county, it's a must-win area for Hochul and a place where she needs to build up a lead to offset Corwin's advantage in the GOP-leaning areas of the district.
Monroe County, which includes Rochester, reported 17 percent turnout as of 5:00 p.m., with 1,978 voters turning out so far. The county anticipated providing another update this evening. Corwin needs strong turnout here in the conservative county.
The more rural counties in the district, or the "glow" counties - Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming - weren't tracking turnout statistics, but an Orelans county official did remark that turnout was "light." Corwin also needs strong margins in these areas to pull out a win.
Jane L. Corwin this afternoon obtained a court order from State Supreme Court Justice Russell P. Buscaglia barring a certification of a winner in the special 26th Congressional District race pending a show-cause hearing before him later this week.
The Buffalo News obtained a copy of the show cause order Buscaglia signed this morning based on a petition the Republican candidate filed Monday.
Under the judge's 11-page order, attorneys for Corwin have until Wednesday to serve copies of the court order on the election boards of Erie, Niagara, Genesee, Orleans, Wyoming, Livingston and Monroe counties, their sheriff's departments, the state Board of Elections and her three opponents.
Pending court proceedings before Buscaglia on Thursday at the earliest, the judge also impounded all voting equipment and enjoined the canvass of paper ballots "except as directed by this court" and "temporarily enjoined and restrained from certifying" the winner pending that court hearing.
I get that one wants to have the best legal position from which to fight in a potential recount scenario, but I can't say that I have ever heard of such a pre-emptive move before.
The special election in NY-26, to replace resigned-in-disgrace Republican Chris Lee, is a toss-up according to every poll.
Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican Jane Corwin are essentially tied on the low-30s, with tea party candidate Jack Davis in the mid-20s.
The big news lately is that Davis and one of his campaign staffers "assaulted" a GOP tracker, whose 14-second video of the "attack" was pretty immediately posted on YouTube.
By the Republicans, who called the tracker a volunteer.
With the redrawing of district maps for 2012 New York will lose 2 congressional seats.
While the process that will be used for redrawing is currently being battled out and the final results of that battle completely unknown the odds are that an incumbency protection plan will be agreed upon by the Senate Republicans and Assembly Democrats and signed by the Democratic Governor. This plan will likely be one in which one upstate republican held district and one downstate democratic held district will be dismantled.
Given that assumption, what is the impact of the NY-26 special election on redistricting?
Some have speculated that NY-26 will "go away" with redistricting. This is not the case. NY-26, in some shape, form and number, will continue to exist after redistricting.
1. the population of western New York is such that it will continue to be home to four districts as is currently the case.
2. due to the larger size of districts (717,707 rather than the current 654,360) these districts will expand more towards the central part of the state.
3. based on the predominantly democratic populations of Buffalo and Rochester, at least two of those districts will be democratic-friendly.
4. two of those districts, based in the rural areas of Erie and Monroe Counties and the rest of the rural counties of western New York, can easily be drawn as republican-friendly districts.
5. every angle I can imagine points at central New York's NY-25 district currently held by Ann Marie Buerkle being the one dismantled. She is the weakest republican rep. She was not really supported by the Republican Party in 2010. She is in the strongest democratic district held by a Republican. Her fund raising is non-existent. She barely won... 567 votes... in 2010. Dan Maffei is already preparing for a rematch. If the Republicans are going to have to give up a seat they may as well give up the one they will probably lose anyhow and work instead to preserve and strengthen the districts they are likely to hold.
6. it is entirely possible to draw western New York with three democratic-friendly districts and only one republican-friendly district.
Crazy Jack Davis had a very, well, crazy day. This is fairly normal for crazy people, though few profoundly crazy people have days as profoundly crazy as Crazy Jack Davis did today.
First, he dropped out of every debate. All of them. Why? Well, he's crazy. He's crazy and his staff knows he's crazy. Crazy doesn't play so well on TV.
Independent Jack Davis, who is the object of attacks from all sides in NY-26, just announced he will not participate in any debates, opting instead to hold an eletronic town hall this Saturday "where voters can ask me any question they want and get an honest answer."
A debate hosted by Channel 2 WGRZ was supposed to take place tomorrow night.
In a statement released by his campaign, Davis slammed both his major party opponents - Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican Jane Corwin - calling them "professional politicians" who are "lying about me and my record" - not to mention their own respective records, "taking credit for work done by others."
How very Bob Dole of him, though in a more crazy, rather than cranky, way. Don't worry though, Crazy Jack was just getting ready to crank the cranky to crazy levels.
When someone, I've no idea who, (perhaps a tracker?) tried task him why he backed out of the debates. That's when Crazy Jack got his crazy old crank on:
You've got to love the fact that Crazy Jack is laughing as he smacks this guy and as he ambles away towards his Klownmobile. Also, WTF is Crazy Jack wearing here? He looks like some sort of geriatric dentist deer hunter or something. A camo...smock? WTF is that thing? And why is a guy who is spending millions of his own money running for Congress wearing it in public? Maybe he is skiping the debates because he had nothing else to wear? Or maybe he's just crazy?
Seems crazy is also contagious. Not only did Crazy Jack smack the guy with the camera around, but one of Crazy Jack's staff (Deputy Goon?) decided to get in on the crazy too and smack the guy around some more. This is crazy for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that the guy getting smacked around was holding a video camera. Crazy, right?
Why? He believed the crazy stuff that a Crazy Jack told him and then learned that maybe he and Crazy Jack Davis were, perhaps, different kinds of crazy and then called the whole crazy thing off.
Pretty crazy, huh?
UPDATE: Two points: 1. As Amherst Guy says in the comments and as much of the chatter I'm hearing seems to reinforce, this is almost certainly the work of Erie County GOP chair Nick Langworthy. David Bellavia is saying so publicly, too.
2: This definitely does not help Kathy Hochul. That is, of course, why they did it.
Team Davis shrugged off the incident -- seemingly fueled by Davis' decision to not participate in a WGRZ debate -- as "histrionics" and said it proves nothing: "This is a deliberate harassment and attempt at intimidation by campaign operatives desperate to keep Jack from getting to Washington," said Davis spokesman Curtis Ellis. "They're harassing him and tracking him and trying to prevent him from getting in his own car... They're trying to get some video they can trick up and make to look more like it is. This is a non-event. This is a nothingburger."
Davis, obviously, is running against GOP-endorsed state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin. Responded the ECGOP's Nick Langworthy when asked for more details, "[A] Young Republican volunteer [was] just asking Davis after his event why he pulled out of the debate. Other than that, I guess the video speaks for itself. Davis certainly does not have the temperament to serve in Congress if he can't handle tough questions from a tracker."
Langworthy declined to release the name of the volunteer, saying the tracker needs to speak to his lawyer. As for the third man in the video, "he works or volunteers for Davis apparently. He did hit him in the head with a binder of some kind."
A spokesman for the Corwin campaign did not immediately respond to my requests for comment about the video, which Ellis said didn't tell the full story of the harrassment "of a candidate for federal office."
"This is the 'Blair Witch Project' of tracker videos," he scoffed. "You see the camera shaking. He screams like an eight-year-old girl -- which is how old Jane Corwin was when she was claims to have been a 'successful businesswoman' -- and that's it. They seem to make it like some Oscar-nominated production."
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Langworthy definitely set Davis up and tracker is definitely hamming it up. But, Davis and his goon totally took the bait. Why? Probably because he's crazy.
It looks like something, perhaps all these polls showing the 26th to be a very, very winnable race, finally coaxed Steve Israel out from under his desk. Politico is reporting that D-trip is finally getting involved with a $250K ad buy.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is placing a $250,000 TV ad buy in the race for a vacant western New York congressional seat, according to a knowledgeable Democratic official.
The buy ups the ante in a battle the committee had previously been reluctant to wade into, and comes on the same day that American Crossroads, a conservative third-party group, announced it would spend $650,000 on TV ads during the final two weeks of the race.
The DCCC has been quietly engaged in the race until now, funneling close to $100,000 to Democrat Kathy Hochul's campaign.
Yet, I'm glad D-trip has finally joined the fight, though I've never understood their reticence. It's a no lose proposition for them, given that if they lose, it's no big deal. Everyone assumed this seat was a safe GOP seat. If they prevail, however, it's a huge win.
It's especially significant given the role that the GOP's "kill Medicare to finance more tax cuts for rich folks" plan has taken on this race. Even though national Republicans seem to be running away from the plan now as fast as they can, poor Jane Corwin is stuck having endorsed it. Talk about a rock and hard place.
So, it's a great chance to test Dem messaging, against a plan even Republicans are backing away from, a year out from when it's widely assumed D-trip will be working overtime to hang that plan around as many House GOP necks as possible. Those poor bastards are going to own that vote whether they like it or not.
A win in NY-26 would mark a huge hat trick against GOP messaging. I'm sure we all remember Dem victories in NY-20 (the stimulus) and NY-23 (health care reform).
The wild card of course is Crazy Jack Davis. I don't know anyone who thinks Crazy Jack will actually pull anywhere near the mid-20s he's now polling on election day. The question is, do those people who are telling pollsters they support Davis but probably can't actually bring themselves to pull the lever for batty old coot, either vote for Corwin (probably more likely, IMHO) or Hochul. Or do they just sit this one out.
Regardless, the DCCC is finally in the game in a significant way. Good for them. It's a winnable race and there's some big ideas on the line.
I guess that PPP/DailyKos poll showing a lead outside the MoE for Democrat Kathy Hochul really put the fear of God into some Corporate Con hearts yesterday. Today we learn that Karl Rove's American Crossroads is dropping a whopping $650K in TV ads touting heiress Jane Corwin between now and the election, a scant two weeks away. That's a shit ton of money in that market over 14 days.
Amid fresh concerns over the tightening special election in New York's 26th District, American Crossroads has purchased $650,000 worth of television time on behalf of Republican Jane Corwin, according to three Democratic sources tracking ad buys in the district.
The ads will begin running Wednesday and last through the day of the special election, May 24. An American Crossroads official confirmed the ad buy.
The conservative advocacy group, which spent more than $70 million on independent expenditures in last year's midterms, had been weighing involving itself in the race, as Corwin has lost ground to Democrat Kathy Hochul and a third-party candidate running under the Tea Party label, Jack Davis.
Yeah, they are sweating this one bigtime, folks. There's now way that Rove and his moneymen ever thought a month ago that they would have to spend this kind of cash to protect NY-26.
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand announced today at an awards luncheon that she will travel to New York's 26th Congressional District to help drum up support for Democratic candidate Kathy Hochul.
Gillibrand was the recipient of reproductive rights group NARAL's annual 2011 Champion of Choice award this afternoon, and she urged women to take a more active role in politics. She invited today's attendees to join her upstate to raise support for Hochul, who will run on May 24th for the seat vacated by Chris Lee (he of Craigslist fame).
"If you get involved, if you send money, if you literally go up there, the week before the election," she told the crowd, explaining ways to take action. "I'm going to be there. Will you join me there? Please join me there. Those are things that we can do, together. The Senate is at risk."
The senator announced her endorsement of Hochul's candidacy earlier this month. Her Empire PAC donated $1,000 Hochul early in the race, and also sent out a fundraising pitch to the senator's supporters.
Senator Gillibrand is putting her money where her mouth is, so to speak, and so can you. Here are some ways you can help bring home a stunning a victory in a GOP district:
In Western New York, we are in a battle for the hearts and minds of voters on behalf of Kathy Hochul, Erie County Clerk and a great public servant. She has pulled within 5% of the Republican candidate in a very red Congressional district. We can win this race with help from you.
We need people willing to make phone calls;
We need people to canvas;
We need donors as well;
If you are from out of town and need lodging, we can help with that as well. The 26th Congressional district covers part of Monroe County, Erie County, Niagara County, and Orleans County as well as all of Genesee, Livingston and Wyoming Counties. We have a chance to send a message across the Country that says no to the Ryan Budget Plan and yes to truly shared sacrifice by electing Kathy Hochul to Congress. If you can help in ANY way, please contact any of the following people:
Williamsville Headquarters (Erie, Niagara, Genesee & Orleans Counties) 4927 Transit Road
Clarence, NY 14221
(Just north of the Honda dealership on Sheridan Drive, behind the Yankee Candle)
Contact: Jesse Simmons
Jesse@KathyHochul.com
(716) 218-3627
Virtual Phone Bank: Make Calls from Home
Contact: Blake@KathyHochul.com
Note that since this was written, we now have a poll showing a slight Hochul lead. This is a winnable race, folks. Join Senator Gillibrand out in the 26th and help make some history.
I'm not entirely sure if the Anti New World Order Party is an actual, ya know, party, or if it's, ya know, just some dude. Regardless, they/he are backing Crazy Jack.
Its official the Anti New World Order Party's first Official endorsement is Jack Davis. Jack Davis is running for New York Congressional District 26 in the special election of May 24 to replace disgraced Republican Congressman Chris Lee. We of the Anti New World Order Party think that Jack Davis is the Closest thing to a founding father type like a Ron Paul for New York state! Jack was at the 2011 Tax Day Tea Party Rally to speak to the people of Rochester NY. What Jack Davis had to say really motivated the Anti New World Order Party to support him in his run for congress in 2011. Also Jack Davis is running for New York Congressional District 26 to make sure Washington puts American jobs, farms and industries first.
Not sure if Crazy Jack will be touting this particular (and peculiar) endorsement, but, hey, it's Crazy Jack Davis. Anything could happen.
Holy cow! This race just keeps getting more and more interesting. Daily Kos has a PPP poll of likely voters showing Democrat Kathy Hochul with a 4 point lead over Republican Jane Corwin. Crazy Jack Davis brings up the rear.
Kathy Hochul (D): 35
Jane Corwin (R): 31
Jack Davis (T): 24
Ian Murphy (G): 2
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±3.0%)
Wow! Two prior polls-one from Siena College, the other a Dem internal-showed this race extremely close, but this is the first survey to feature Kathy Hochul in the lead. The wild card, once again, is Crazy Jack Davis, the Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-teabagger who is unquestionably hurting Corwin more than Hochul. While 19% of Democrats say they favor Davis, 24% of Republicans do the same. Davis in fact seems to be squeezing Corwin from both sides: He siphons off a large chunk of self-described conservatives (29% to Corwin's 52%), and also runs better among independents (31-20). Hochul, however, does best among that group at 37, helping her nose into the lead.
The biggest question, of course, is whether a third-party rich guy vanity candidate like Davis can hold on to his share of the vote once people actually go to the polls. It seems like more often than not, characters like Davis see their support slide by election day-but that's just two weeks away, so perhaps he can hang on, given the short timeframe. Davis's favorables are less bad than I had expected, an even 43-43. Corwin, meanwhile, is slightly underwater at 39-42, while Hochul is the only one in positive territory at 46-40. If disaffected independents and grumpy teabaggers continue to decide they like Davis more than Corwin, Hochul really could snatch this one away from the GOP.
Which is why Republicans are so desperate to avoid another "Scozzafava" situation. You may recall the New York special election they blew back in 2009 thanks to a split in the right-wing vote between two candidates, Doug Hoffman and Dede Scozzafava. So it's no surprise that Corwin is up on the airwaves attacking Davis for his Democratic past, and I'm sure we'll see more like this in the closing days of the campaign. What's more, Speaker John Boehner is in the district today, trying to shore up what should have been a sure thing.
So I wouldn't be surprised if the NRCC starts spending big here to avoid a serious embarrassment-and I hope the DCCC gets involved, too. If we somehow win, it's an amazing upset; if we lose, well, we were never supposed to have a chance here anyway. No matter what, it's going to be an exciting stretch run.
Speaking of the DCCC, it would appear that their absence has not gone un-noticed by the locals:
According to published and private polls, this toxic GOP rhetoric gives the intrepid Hochul better than a good chance to win in a heavily Republican district. Realizing that this is their best chance this year to send a signal across the country, Democrats high (reportedly including Schumer) and low have begged Israel to release some of the $4.7 million in cash that the DCCC is sitting on for Hochul's campaign.
So far, the committee has refused. Speaking not for direct attribution, some whined that they need to "preserve resources" for next year and that Israel would look bad getting into the Hochul race should she lose. But somehow, Israel wrote checks for nearly $16 million for consultants and other DCCC expenses in the first three months of the year.
In addition, I learned that Israel's committee has so far denied independent groups like the Working Families Party indirect help to set up calling centers to help Hochul.Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's stony refusal to endorse Hochul when asked raises a darker possibility. In the 2012 congressional reapportionment by Albany, there may be a consideration that "two's company, and three's a crowd" Albany must cut one of the three House seats from Western New York, and might find the thorny job of drawing new district lines easier if there were only two Democrats, Reps. Brian Higgins and Louise Slaughter, than if Democrat Hochul were the third incumbent instead of Republican candidate Jane Corwin.
Whatever happens, Israel will look like a sap. If Hochul wins, the committee can claim no credit. If she loses, it will be blamed for moral cowardice. Spokesman Josh Schwerin said the committee has been "coordinating" with Hochul.
Not sure how much heat D-trip could actually bring 2 weeks out, but they could certainly help step Hochul's ground game. That said, I don't have a lot of faith that they will. Perhaps, this latest poll will light a fire under Steve Israel's ass. Then again, maybe not.
With a second poll this week confirming that we really have a three-way race in New York's 26th District, Republicans have the most to lose if things don't go Jane Corwin's way in three weeks - and their nervousness is starting to show. Both Corwin and the state GOP have gone after independent Jack Davis, hoping that if they can remind people of his Democratic past, he'll stop pulling votes away from them. But they have two fronts to watch now, with both Democrat Kathy Hochul and Davis hammering Corwin on Medicare.
It's clear now that the Medicare issue will be the defining issue in the race, and so far Corwin has tried to turn the message back to jobs and the deficit. This is an early test for how the Democratic message will play, but the DCCC still isn't in; though with Corwin forced to go on the attack, it could be better if they wait it out and force her hand. On the flip side, the NRCC has already begun phone-banking for Corwin, but especially if they're forced to send resources and go up on air for her, it's an even surer sign that they're worried about how a loss could play into their 2012 plans.
It looks like any help Hochul is going to get is going to have to come from closer to home. I'll have info on volunteer opportunities up later today.
Three time NY-26 loser Jack Davis is out with a new TV ad that has both barrels blazing and takes aim at not only both of the other candidates in the race, but both parties as well. It's territory the Republican-turned-Democrat-turnedRepublican-turned-Teahadist should know quite well. It's appropriately titled "Both Parties."
As the three-way, special election in New York's 26th District continues to tighten, independent candidate Jack Davis, who is running as a Tea Party candidate, has launched a new television ad targeting both his Democratic and Republican rivals.
In a 30-second ad that began airing this week, Davis rips into both his opponents, echoing the same messages they've used against each other in what's quickly becoming a circular firing squad of attacks. In what's been a theme in all of Davis's campaigns, he begins by criticizing both parties for backing trade agreements that "shipped jobs overseas" and "gave tax breaks to multinationals."
Davis, a two-time Democratic nominee for the seat who petitioned himself onto the May 24 ballot as a Tea Party candidate after losing the GOP nomination, has received more attention from Republicans this week after polls have showed a close race between himself, GOP nominee Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul. Corwin went up with an ad Thursday reminding voters of Davis's past support for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and President Obama, and the New York Republican Party has sent out mailers with similar messages.
"Both spent trillions bailing out Wall Street and the banks," the narrator says in Davis's ad, as pictures of Corwin and Hochul come into focus. "Now, to make us pay for it all, Republican Jane Corwin wants to replace Medicare with vouchers and Democrat Kathy Hochul wants to raise taxes again."
OK, this poll was conducted by Global Strategy Group, who is working for Hochul, but it doesn't seem that far out of line with last week's Siena poll told us. A grain of salt, etc. GOP candidate Jane Corwin is essentially in a dead heat with Dem Kathy Hochul, with Crazy Jack Davis running just 5 points behind.
Democrat Kathy Hochul continues to close the gap against Republican Jane Corwin in the special election for New York's 26th District House seat, according to new Democratic polling data provided to POLITICO.
The poll, conducted for Hochul's campaign by Global Strategy Group, shows Corwin leading Hochul just 31 percent to 30 percent, with Jack Davis, an independent candidate running on the Tea Party ballot line, picking up 26 percent.
"The bottom line is this: Kathy Hochul is in the thick of it despite facing two self-funding millionaires who are hitting the airwaves with huge media buys," write the pollsters in a memo accompanying the results. "Hochul has the right profile to motivate her base and emerge as the victor in a competitive three-way race."
The new figures reflect a slight uptick for Hochul following a Siena College poll released last week that showed Corwin ahead, 36 percent to 31 percent, with Davis receiving 23 percent.
The poll of 400 likely voters was taken between May 2-4 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
Neither the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee nor the National Republican Congressional Committee has yet to invest in the race.
But Republicans are growing increasingly concerned that Davis, a wealthy industrialist and former Democrat who has spent more than $1 million on TV ads branding himself as a protectionist-oriented candidate, is siphoning votes from Corwin.
The question is will Crazy Jack Davis siphon enough votes from Corwin. I don't know anyone following this race that thinks Davis will pull anywhere near 26% on E-day.
I'd really love to see the crosstabs on this poll. I'm really curious where this Hochul surge is coming from.
So will DCCC get involved finally? If so, will NRCC be far behind in an attempt to bail out a candidate that looked like a sure fire winner just a couple of weeks ago?
Nervous much, Jane Corwin? The Republican nominee in the New York's 26th District special election is now launching attacks at both of her rivals as she's quickly seen her presumptive lead evaporate. A new internal poll from Democratic nominee Kathy Hochul's campaign shows the race is now a dead heat, one week after a Siena poll only showed Corwin up 5. In the Global Strategy Group survey, Corwin leads only 31 percent to Hochul's 30, with independent Jack Davis taking 26 percent. The question everyone wants to know - is this enough to force the DCCC's hand and have them get in the race? It's still a gamble, but with Hochul facing two self-funded candidates, she could use the extra help.
I'm still trying to figure out who exactly is responsible for this gem of genius (though I'm hearing it's Green Party candidate and all around rock star Ian Murphy). It's just pitch perfect.
Ladies and gentlemen, behold what is certainly the best candidate spoof site of all time. I give you janecorwin.org.
Go check it out. It's definitely worth some of your time.
Also, too: Protip: Always buy up all URL iterations of your candidate's name on, like, day one. It ain't rocket science. If you don't, you could get this:
Xenophobic four-time prospective congressional seat purchaser and infamous scumbag Jack Davis, renowned hater of brown skin and Asian eyes, displays some of the decorum and calm, cool, collectivity he'd bring to Congress:
You would think that, given that this is the fourth consecutive cycle that Crazy Jack Davis is running for this seat, that maybe he would have learned a few things about how to behave at a candidate's forum. I mean, how many of these things has he done now? But, alas, you'd be wrong. BP sums it up:
Don't participate in a candidate's forum if you're not willing to answer tough questions from people.
What an asshole. If you can't handle questions from those you claim to wish to represent, you're probably angling for the wrong job. Period.
Crazy racist nutter Jack Davis, the three time loser Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican-turned Teatard says he'll caucus with House Republicans. If he gets elected, mind you. Fortunately, there's not much chance of that. The Buffalo News has the deets:
Third-party congressional candidate Jack Davis says he will caucus with the GOP should he win the May 24 special election to fill the vacancy in the 26th District.
"I think I'm closer to the Republicans," he said this week when asked with which party he would ally.
....
Davis was a lifelong Republican until a 2003 fundraiser in Buffalo featuring former Vice President Dick Cheney. His experience in being denied an opportunity to speak with Cheney about his opposition to free trade policies prompted him to switch to the Democratic Party and launch three congressional runs - in 2004, 2006 and 2008 - for the seat held by former Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, RClarence, all as a Democrat.
But Davis switched back to the GOP after losing the 2008 Democratic congressional primary to attorney Alice J. Kryzan, and was a major donor to local Republicans until he was denied the congressional nomination earlier this year. He then launched a petition drive for an independent line and is now the official candidate of the tea party.
He said this week he will join the tea party caucus, which represents mostly Republican members of Congress who sympathize with the tea party movement devoted to major cuts in spending. He also said he will seek to start a Save Jobs Caucus under the name he used for a minor party line (Save Jobs Party) in a previous campaign.
But until he was asked where he would caucus, Davis said this week he did not know for whom he would vote as speaker.
What's interesting is that shortly after that Siena poll was released this morning, Crazy Jack's campaign sent out a release that ended with these words:
The people of the 26th congressional district are not going to waste their vote by casting a ballot for either political party. We need someone who's loyal to the people of Western New York, not John Boehner or Nancy Pelosi.
Siena Research Institute came out this morning with the first public polling in the upcoming May 24 special election in the NY-26 Congressional District.
The results are very, very close with Republican Jane Corwin at 36%, Democrat Kathy Hochul closing in at 31% and independent Tea Party candidate Jack Davis at 23%.
Philip has a post up already but I want to take a moment to dig a little deeper into the crosstabs and see if we can learn something about what is going on out there in this mostly rural western New York district.
I can't say I really saw this one coming. Given a number of factors - nature of the district and the fact that Dems gave Jane Corwin a month head start among them - I simply didn't believe that this was going to be a terribly competitive race. It would appear this assumption was incorrect. A new Siena poll out this morning shows a much tighter race than was expected until quite recently. (Thanks, Paul Ryan!)
In the special election for the 26th Congressional District seat, Republican Jane Corwin currently has a small lead, with the support of 36 percent of voters. Democrat Kathy Hochul is supported by 31 percent, and independent Jack Davis, running on the Tea Party line, has the support of 23 percent of voters, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely 26th CD voters released today.
Voters identified the federal budget deficit and jobs as the two most important issues they want their new Representative working on in Washington. Voters strongly support (58-36 percent) repealing the recently enacted federal health care legislation. They strongly oppose cutting Medicare and Social Security benefits to help close the deficit (59-38 percent), however, they strongly support increasing personal income tax rates for the wealthiest Americans (62-35 percent), and they are divided (48-47 percent) on increasing corporate taxes.
"Republican Corwin holds a narrow five-point lead over Democrat Hochul, with independent Davis garnering nearly one-quarter of the vote. In a district with a seven-point edge for Republicans among enrolled voters and years of Republican representation, Corwin's support lags behind Republican enrollment, while Hochul' s nearly matches Democratic enrollment," said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
"The two major party candidates run virtually even in Erie County, with Corwin leading the rest of the district. Corwin leads Hochul by 10 points among men; they are virtually tied with women. Corwin leads by 14 points among voters under 55, while Hochul has a slim three-point lead among those voters 55 and older. Hochul has a 20-point lead in union households, while non-union households favor Corwin by 15 points," Greenberg said.
"Voters view both Corwin and Hochul favorably by 44-31 percent margins, and on Davis, the most known candidate, voters split 42-41 percent," Greenberg said. "Not surprisingly, Hochul is viewed favorably by Democrats and independents, and unfavorably by Republicans, while Corwin is viewed favorably by Republicans and independents, and unfavorably by Democrats. Davis is also viewed favorably by Republicans and independents - more so by Republicans - and unfavorably by Democrats."
My two top line takeaways are simply 1: Hey, Kathy Hochul is in this thing and 2. Crazy ass racist nutbag and Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Teatard Jack Davis is not only polling in double digits, but is pulling a whopping 23%. Though I think the latter says something profoundly distressing about us as a culture, it's probably less surprising when you consider that he's been running for the seat on one line or another many years now and has pledged to spend $3 million of his own money on this current campaign. That's a lot of cash, especially considering all the money he blew on his numerous precious campaigns, for a seat that may not exist after next year. That said, he's a nutter. Crazy is as crazy does.
It's also interesting to note that Hochul is running essentially even with a 1 point lead in Erie County, the center of gravity of the entire district. She also has a 20 point lead in union households.
So, why is this race as close as this poll would seem to suggest? Honestly, I think it's the Paul Ryan/GOP budget plan that would effectively kill Medicare to finance further tax cuts for the most wealthy people in the nation. The poll clearly shows that while the federal budget deficit is a top concern for voters in the 26th, those same folks are also saying "hands off" Medicare and Social Security. Oh, and feel free to tax rich folks while you're at it. I short, GOP overreach and the Ryan plan have made this race competitive over the last few weeks.
The Hochul campaign is making this the issue as well, as evidenced by this recent TV spot:
Is it something in the water in Buffalo? Last year crazy, bestiality porn loving deadbeat Carl Paladino suggested that we ship inner city welfare recipients to abandoned military bases and "teach them hygiene." Today we learn that Republican-turned Democrat-turned Republican, three time loser and fellow wealthy self funding nutjob Jack Davis has some ideas about what to do with their kids, ideas rooted firmly in the 18th century.
Davis suggests we deport Latino farmworkers and ship inner city African American youth out to farm country to pick crops. No, really. He said that.
Congressional candidate Jack Davis shocked local Republican leaders in a recent interview when he suggested that Latino farmworkers be deported -- and that African-Americans from the inner city be bused to farm country to pick the crops.
Several sources who were in the Feb. 20 endorsement interview with Davis confirmed his comments, which echo those he made to the Tonawanda News in 2008, when he said: "We have a huge unemployment problem with black youth in our cities. Put them on buses, take them out there [to the farms] and pay them a decent wage; they will work."
When Davis repeated those sentiments in the recent interview, the Republican leaders -- who later delivered the party endorsement for the vacant seat in the 26th Congressional District to Assemblywoman Jane L. Corwin of Clarence -- said they couldn't believe what they were hearing.
"I was thunderstruck," said Amherst GOP Chairman Marshall Wood. "Maybe in 1860 that might have been seen by some as an appropriate comment, but not now."
....
During the Feb. 20 endorsement interview with the district's Republican leaders, Davis "repeatedly almost disqualified himself" by contradicting typical party positions, said Gordon Brown, the Wyoming County GOP chairman.
Almost disqualified himself? What exactly would he need to do earn that disqualification? Maybe he could have delivered his remarks in blackface? Or maybe he could have punctuated his statement by literally cracking a rawhide whip?
When Davis made his comment, "the room sort of went silent," Brown said. "It was like: Did I just hear that?"
Yes, yes you did just hear that. And, let's face it. It takes some powerful crazy to stun a crowd of Republicans and Teahadists in Paladino-stan.
Voters identified the federal budget deficit and jobs as the two most important issues they want their new Representative working on in Washington. Voters strongly support (58-36 percent) repealing the recently enacted federal health care legislation. They strongly oppose cutting Medicare and Social Security benefits to help close the deficit (59-38 percent), however, they strongly support increasing personal income tax rates for the wealthiest Americans (62-35 percent), and they are divided (48-47 percent) on increasing corporate taxes.
