Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.
The categories are:
NY-Sen: Schumer vs. Townsend percentage
NY-Sen: Gillibrand vs. DioGuardi percentage
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
NY-AG: Schneiderman vs. Donovan
NY-Comptroller: DiNapoli vs. Wilson
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-20: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
NY-24: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan
Here are my predictions:
US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.
US House: 218 D 217 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.
NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-AG: Schneiderman wins, 53-47
NY-Comptroller: Dinapoli wins, 52-48
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-20:Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
NY-24: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.
Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally, and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory in the waiting.
What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!
Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.
The categories are:
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-23: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
NY-24: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan
Here are my predictions:
US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.
US House: 220 D 218 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.
NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-23: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
NY-24: Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.
Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally , and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory int he waiting.
What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!
We're in the home stretch. What happens in the next ten days will determine who governs this state for the next two to four years, who draws the district lines, and who makes decisions about your kids' future.
Gillibrand, Schneiderman, DiNapoli, & Jacobs to lead rallies in Manhattan, Nassau County, and Westchester County
This Saturday at 11 am Democrats will be holding a massive statewide day of action to build energy and spread the Democratic message.
Dubbed "Mobilizing for Victory," Democrats will hold simultaneous rallies in Manhattan, Westchester County, Nassau County, Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, Suffolk County, Albany, Rochester, Syracuse, and Buffalo - followed by a coordinated canvassing operation to reach out to everyday New Yorkers on behalf of the entire Democratic ticket.
The show of force comes as the Democratic coordinated campaign ramps up its efforts going into the all-important final stretch. Since kicking off just three weeks ago, the Democratic Coordinated Campaign has already set up shop with 13 regional field offices, knocked on close to 200,000 doors, and called well over 100,000 voters.
Check the link for a list of locations and get out there.
I didn't get to watch the debate, since it was only on YNN which Dish Network doesn't get. But I listened to some of it online, and read several summaries, all of which pretty much reinforce my first impression: that it consisted of Andrew Cuomo standing on a stage for an hour with six total lunatics.
I know that Paladino's strategy for this debate was to avoid letting himself talk, which seems to be his worst enemy, while hopefully getting the left wing of the party and anyone stuck on identity politics to attach to another candidate. Unfortunately for him, he blended right into the crowd. A crowd made of kooks.
Redlich and Paladino Continue Battle of Wits Before Big Debate
Is everybody excited for the big gubernatorial debate coming up on Monday? I know I am, because I have a weird affinity for third party candidates. As the Wall Street Journal observed earlier this week (ew, I hate linking to that paper) all the third-party candidates have been invited at Crazy Carl Paladino's insistence.
And probably to his detriment. His borderline insanity becoming more apparent with each passing day, he's apparently too foolish to concede defeat in the battle of wits currently being instigated by Libertarian candidate Warren Redlich. Last week, Redlich went for the jugular with this YouTube parody of Paladino's infamous encounter with New York Post reporter Fred Dicker. It was the funniest thing I've seen all season.
Could the debate on Monday be even funnier? If Paladino continues taking the bait the way he did in the Journal...
Mr. Redlich said he is "the only real choice for anyone who is toward the right of center," asserting that Mr. Paladino "has made himself difficult to vote for." (A spokesman for Mr. Paladino, Michael Caputo, said Mr. Redlich is "so busy leering at teen girls and pushing for legalized narcotics that Carl wouldn't want his vote anyway.")
...which gave Redlich the in to release this response today...
Mr. Redlich admits to reading Mr. Paladino's e-mails. However, he does not "leer" at them and more importantly, he doesn't forward them.
On the drug issue, Mr. Paladino should be among the first to recognize the problems with our current policy. It failed to prevent his own son Patrick from "struggling with an addiction to drugs and alcohol," as reported by the New York Times.
Mr. Paladino might want to learn that well-known saying: "People who own taxpayer-funded glass office buildings shouldn't throw stones."
...then we could have quite the LIB vs. GOP smack-down on Monday.
This is what I like about Warren Redlich. He knows how to deal with Paladino in a way Cuomo doesn't want to. Redlich's strategy appears to be to instigate Crazy Carl into even more public mudslinging, and so far it's working. The Paladino campaign is bleeding votes thanks to it's candidates lunacy, and Redlich's libertarianism is probably the most attractive alternative.
How does this help the Democratic Party? By syphoning votes away from the Paladino Party (or whatever he's calling his new for-sale party line), Redlich is giving us some extra help by making sure the Tea Party dies a quick death in New York State. If Redlich's campaign ends up leaving Carl's for-sale Tea Party line short of the 50,000 votes it needs to rear it's ugly head again, he will have done much better by us Democrats than most of us are currently giving him credit for.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it. And stay tuned to see if anything like this goes down at the debate.
Libertarian Gubernatorial CandidateUses Dino-Dicker Confrontation to Hilariously Frame His Issues
Remember a few weeks ago when Carl Paladino flew off the handle in a confrontation with New York Post political guru Fred Dicker? And do you recall the observations earlier this week that it might be the Libertarian's year thanks to the alienation of 'Dino supporters as a result?
Libertarian Gubernatorial candidate Warren Redlich has just posted what I consider to be the most hilarious political satire video of the year to take advantage of the fallout.
Just for the record, that's not really Fred Dicker in the video. Redlich confirmed that it's a fellow LP activist. But I still think this is a classy dig at Paladino.
Even more classier, Redlich did what Paladino should have done in real life by issueing a public "apology" to Mr. Dicker for the fictitious indcident:
In light of the recent confrontation between journalist Fred Dicker and Governor candidate Warren Redlich, the Redlich campaign today issued the following statement:
We regret that the incident turned ugly. "I apologize for losing my temper, and for my colorful language," Mr. Redlich said.
Honestly, I was laughing my ass off. Finally, I thought, a candidate willing to stick it to Paladino the way it should be done: with humor. Paladino is not worth taking seriously, and many of his antics, while patently offensive, are also laugh-out-loud stich-worthy.
I also like the way Redlich uses the dig to frame his two main sticking points agianst his two strongest opponents, Paladino himself and our guy, Andrew Cuomo. I had the pleasure of eating lunch with Mr. Redlich earlier this week. My main intention was to simply get face time with another Albany area attorney who might need my services as a paralegal. But he's glad enough to have a firm that's shrinking, and was even more proud to say, and I quote: "I'm the only candidate who's not full of crap."
I like how he ran with this so much, that I'm even going to give you the rest of the release below the fold; he ties the joke into some serious questions for both major party candidates.
On the heels of his clergy group's endorsement of GOP AG candidate Dan Donovan, "true Democrat" Ruben Diaz Sr. is open to endorsing Carl Palin-dino for governor because Cuomo has so far declined to meet with Diaz's group of anti-gay bigots:
"(Cuomo) doesn't want to because he believes the gay community would get angry and he doesn't want to get the gay community angry," Diaz Sr. said.
"Now Paladino came and he's coming back. Soon. Soon. And we believe that anyone that wants to be governor should be governor for everybody - for everybody - gay, straight, Chrisitan, Muslim, Jews, Hebrews."
Yeah, it's all a conspiracy! But maybe Diaz has a point- why exactly would Cuomo want to give legitimacy to a bigoted State Senator who didn't even possess the organizational muscle to help his best "amigo" in the Senate win re-election in the neighboring Senate district? That is certainly not worth alienating the Gay Community for.
But then again with Diaz on board, Palin-Dino just might pull out the swing district of the Bronx.
Also check out this awesome video F-U to Diaz from Rosie Perez where she calls out Diaz for his bigotry in the name of New York's latinos:
Received a call in Brooklyn from a (barely intelligible) pollster with a Utah caller ID tonight, testing the following negative attacks against Andrew Cuomo. Many seemed specifically tailored to turn off progressives.
"Would you be more or less likely to vote for Cuomo knowing that:"
- There are no African-Americans, Jews, or Hispanics on the Democratic ticket.
- He was involved in the failure of Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae.
- He received the endorsement of the Working Families Party.
- He supported building a mosque near ground zero.
- He refused to investigate Eliot Spitzer for money laundering.
- As HUD Secretary, he launched investigations into African American mayors.
- [A question about Steve Rattner and the state pension funds scandal]
- He says he supports same-sex marriange but refused to call Democrats to help it pass the State Senate.
- He refuses to take part in debates that would include minor party, African American candidates.
Today, Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino and his campaign manager Mike Caputo almost came to blows with Fred Dicker, the dean of the Capitol press corps.
Dicker has covered Albany for more than 30 years, is the Murdoch NY Post bureau chief in Albany, and also has a daily one-hour talk show on WGDJ-AM and does analysis on WRGB, Channel 6.
He's relatively conservative, for New York, but he has expressed concern with Paladino's rhetoric, like calling former Republican Gov. George Pataki "a degenerate idiot" and comparing Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver to the Antichrist.
Yet another reason that Carl Palin-dino would be a miserable failure as a Governor, is that he would fill our government with political hacks with ethical weaknesses (even more so than usual). The Times just published an enlightening expose:
But some of the people whom Mr. Paladino has recruited to run his campaign are plagued by brushes with the law and allegations of misconduct, an examination of public records shows.
His campaign manager failed to pay nearly $53,000 in federal taxes over the last few years, prompting the Internal Revenue Service to take action against him. An aide who frequently drives Mr. Paladino on the campaign trail served jail time in Arizona on charges of drunken driving.
Another adviser has been indicted on charges of stealing more than $1 million from Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's re-election bid last year. And Mr. Paladino's campaign chairwoman left a local government position amid claims that she had steered $1 billion in public money to a politically connected investment manager.
Their backgrounds could raise questions about the kind of cabinet Mr. Paladino, a Republican, would assemble if elected in November and cast doubt on his ability to radically remake the dysfunctional culture of Albany, government watchdogs said.
And who did Palin-dino hire to be his campaign driver? Why, the crazy teabagger Rus Thompson, who is certainly qualified to be a campaign driver, but not a communications strategist, because he is a teabagging blogger with a DUI. But at least Palin-dino's campaign manager, Michael Caputo has an enlightened view of this:
In an interview, Michael R. Caputo, the campaign manager who ran afoul of the I.R.S., said, "This is a campaign of junkyard dogs, not pedigreed poodles."
Yeah, people who live their lives ethically are "pedigreed poodles." Only pussies don't go around embezzling funds and cheating the IRS! And of course, only a multimillionaire businessman has the real-man mentality to protect our state from all those pedigreed poodles and their elitist ethics!
"I have a plan, I have an agenda, I have positions. Carl Paladino has a platform. I want to make sure New Yorkers all across the state understand the difference between them."
His Manhattan jaunt began early on Monday with an interview at the headquarters of Fox News, where he seemed awed by the hive of activity around him well before 8 a.m. "Why do you guys get up so early?" he asked a reporter.
After Paterson, what New York needs is a Governor who is hard-working. We do not need a Governor who is going to lay in bed all day and read the heritage foundation website. Our state has too many problems for a lazy, ideologically-blind, old crank to take the helm for the next 4 years.
First off, the trash has been carted off to the dump. The single most foul, offensive, miserable, and corrupt waste of flesh has been removed from our legislature. Everybody who contributed to his ousting, from reformers to unions and the WFP to all the volunteers and voters who looked at this abysmal sleazy excuse for a human being and roundly said enough is enough, should be commended for their contribution. A clear message has been sent to the rest of the pack up there that you cannot get away with just anything.
The GOP nominated Carl Paladino for Governor. But the great thing is that Rick Lazio won the Conservative nomination, thus making it even more impossible for Cuomo not to win, not even considering Paladino's history of racism and general wingnut teabagging lunacy.
It appears Eric Schneiderman will pull out the AG race. This is a very good thing. Schneiderman has been a lifelong reformer. I am very happy to think that the man who had Hiram Monserratte's scalp will now fill a position with powers to regulate all of Albany.
Unfortunately, Ruben Diaz Sr. soundly defeated Charlie Ramos, 81-19 at this point. What we've learned from the Pedro race and the Squadron/Connor and Newell/Shelly races from 08 is that pork-spewing incumbent legislators can be defeated, but it involves a full-court press by reformers, democratic clubs, unions, and the WFP. If that full spectrum coalition isn't all behind the challenger, it is unlikely that incumbents lose. Another anti-gay Senator, Shirley Huntley beat challenger Lynn Nunes by an over 2-1 margin.
Charlie Rangel won re-election. Rangel certainly doesn't deserve this victory but it was clear this would happen with the divided nature and weak candidates of the opposition.
Crazy person Greg Ball won his GOP primary for the 40th Senate District to face rockstar Mike Kaplowitz in November.
Doug Hoffman is losing the GOP nomination for NY-23 but will ensure we keep the seat because he will run on the third-party Conservative line.
Carolyn Maloney soundly defeated Reshma Saujani. Saujani could have tapped into an anti-incumbent mood this year but was defined early as the pro-wall street candidate and never shook that association.
Bill Stachowski lost to a Steve Pigeon candidate. Stach was stupid for voting against marriage equality and for that he deserves to lose. But Tim Kennedy didn't deserve to win. It would have been better if that pro-equality energy were directed at Ruben Diaz Sr. instead.
Overall, I'm sad that Diaz Sr. won by such a large margin but the race in the neighboring 33rd district took most of the reform resources. Next time, that might not be the case. In many of the other races, the best result happened for us happened, so everyone should feel good after today's results. Nights like these are what make politics great.
Rick Lazio, having found the ticket for actually getting people to notice he exists, has resorted to straight-up bigoted lies in his crusade against moderate, peace-loving Muslim New Yorkers. Check out this ridiculous advertisement:
He calls Imam Rauf a "terrorist sympathizing Imam."
If someone like Imam Rauf is "terrorist-sympathizing," then Rick Lazio is a bigot who hates all muslims. If the Cordoba House is something repugnant to conservatives like Rick Lazio, they are saying that no muslim can be moderate enough to not be a terrorist. And that is called bigotry, ladies and gentlemen.
At least most New Yorkers aren't falling for his strategy of demonize and divide:
Cuomo leads Lazio 60-26% and Paladino by 60-27% percent.
In a three-way race, Cuomo garners 56% to 19% for Lazio (identified as a Republican) and 12 percent for Paladino (identified as an independent). In a three-way race identifying Paladino as the Republican and Lazio as the Conservative, Cuomo leads 56% to 16% for Lazio, and 14% for Paladino. Lazio's primary lead over Paladino among enrolled Republicans is down to 13 points, 43-30%, down from a 20-point lead in July, the poll shows.
But then, isn't it always true that bigots are usually people who are failures in their own lives who seek to divert attention to others to distract from their own failures? Thanks for reminding everybody of that, Mr. Lazio.
Okay. I am privy to all the public facts about Carl Paladino, and some non-public ones. I knew about his blatant racism. His massive egotism and disregard for anyone that's not him. His apparent taste for bestiality porn.
But before today I didn't seriously think of him as a wannabe Pol Pot.
The would-be Republican candidate for Governor of New York sat down with the Times Herald-Record, serving the Catskills and Hudson Valley. The paper entitled their analysis "Paladino lays out plan but is short on details," which is an innocuous enough title to fit just about any political campaign.
MIDDLETOWN - Under a Gov. Carl Paladino, political hacks would be swept from the state payroll, Medicaid spending would be slashed by 40 percent and state programs or even entire agencies that are deemed unnecessary would disappear.
Underused prisons would be turned into work camps for welfare recipients.
Go ahead and re-read that sentence, I'll wait.
Hey, Times Herald-Record? I think you just did what's known as "burying the lead."
I would comment further, but really, I think he's already said it all, hasn't he? I'm not sure what's more alarming, the fact that he actually said that, or that the paper didn't automatically write an article denouncing it.
I'm loving the wonkiness coming out of the Cuomo camp these days. After the 250-page "New NY Agenda," the campaign has now released Power NY, a 150-pager on energy policy.
None of this is truly revolutionary in clean energy circles, but it's incredibly heartening to have a gubernatorial candidate embrace what is largely consensus among clean energy policy supporters as stated policy. It's a pretty comprehensive plan involving efficiency, smart grid, and increased use of renewables. Definitly worth a read.
Yesterday evening I got an email from a prominent upstate Democrat I know, dropping me some information on a brewing situation with next week's New York State Democratic Convention.
The message was short and to the point: a number of people believe that the convention is effectively being rigged by the newly out of the closet Cuomo campaign in order to get their preferred candidate the Democratic nomination for Attorney General--that candidate being former Republican and fellow down-stater Kathleen Rice.
One of these people, the Montgomery County Democratic chair, went so far as to write a letter to state committee members encouraging a fair and open convention process, a letter I got my hands on a copy of.
Dear State Committee Member,
I wanted to take a minute to write about next week's convention, and the race for Attorney General.
I'm sure you saw today's New York Times article, which suggests that the convention process is being manipulated to benefit one candidate, at the expense of other qualified candidates. I think that's wrong, and it's not what the Democratic Party is all about.
Our party is blessed with a number of qualified candidates for Attorney General, and they all deserve a chance to get on the ballot, unimpeded. Democratic primary voters - and not a handful of insiders - should decide who our nominee is this fall. Regardless of whether or not you have chosen your candidate, I hope that you would agree with me that the process should be open and democratic.
I have endorsed Eric Dinallo, who won the Democratic Rural Conference Straw Poll by a convincing margin of two-to-one over the second place candidate -- earning nearly as many votes as all of the other candidates combined. Eric has secured the endorsement of 26 County Chairs from across our state, demonstrating the broad appeal of his candidacy - and, in my view, proving that he'll be our strongest possible candidate in the general election. Eric's not a career politician; he's an independent thinker and a fierce advocate for justice. From fighting violent crime as a prosecutor, to taking on Wall Street in the AG's office, to battling Big Insurance as Insurance Superintendent, Eric's shown that he has the experience, creativity, strength - and the independence -- we need in our next Attorney General.
Like many Upstate Democrats, I'm uncomfortable with the idea of a handful of party insiders determining who gets on the ballot. Please join me in telling our party leaders that we want a Democratic convention that's truly democratic.
Look forward to seeing you next week,
Bethany Schumann-McGhee
Montgomery County Chair
Why would the newly minted leader of the NY Democrats, a guy who is already pretty much expected to win by at least a two thirds majority, interfere in the party process to pick a former Republican to run for his old job? Particularly one who treated her former gig as Nassau County DA as a chance for political grandstanding, pontificating about drunk drivers and sex offenders, which I'm sure are the most pressing sorts of crimes in the second richest county in America.
Short answer? Rice is apparently counting on Cuomo's coattails to get her into office. Cuomo reportedly favors her, and the convention delegates are afraid to cross him over the issue. Moreover, if you look into the records, Cuomo has been fundraising for Rice since October of 2009, which may help to account for the couple million dollars in cash which vaulted her into the top tier candidates past people like Eric Schneiderman. That leaves you with an AG who completely owes their job to the new Governor, which is not the way that elections are supposed to work.
The "why" of the thing doesn't really matter at that point. What does matter is that with half the state's county chairs already backing Dinallo, and Rice having fallen flat with both the public and the party faithful outside of the New York City area, a convention that crowns Rice with the nomination is going to meet with a great deal of skepticism--skepticism at best--from the Democratic base if the process isn't unquestionably fair and impartial. A secret ballot would be a good start on that; so would guaranteeing the state committee members from NYC the right to vote as they choose, rather than as the party machine dictates.
Last but not least, speaking from my own perspective. Having a handful of people from downstate select the next AG candidate through internal arm-twisting--including running roughshod over the only candidate to make a serious appeal to rural New Yorkers in, well ever--is an absolute disaster for those of us still trying to build the party out here in the red parts of the state, since it confirms all the worst cliches about state government being run solely of by and for New York City.
I know, Andrew Cuomo doesn't need to care about that--he's still going to win by ten or twenty points even if he never sets foot on a farm or a state park. But he should care, because every voter that we convert up here means a little more support for good government, a little less partisan gridlock, and maybe one more vote in the State Senate over some vital issue to make this a better state.
We're doing all we can up here to change the dynamics in New York State with almost no help from the state party or the state elected officials. Please do not make a mockery of our efforts with some kind of inside baseball hack-job of a convention.
I love New York. I grew up here, I'm raising my three daughters here, and I want New York to work for them like it worked for me. I want to leave them a state that is better, fairer, and stronger than ever before.
Sadly, our state government has failed our people. It has been paralyzed all too often by partisan politics and corruption.
We must change all that. It's time to overhaul our government -- clean it up, pare it down and make it work.
That's why I'm running for Governor. But this campaign can't succeed without your help, so my first step is asking you to join me today.
Check out the site, especially the part about 'New York doesn't work'.
