As Goes Cornwall?

by: phillip anderson

Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:59:02 AM EST

FLASH: More Dems than Republicans voted in Cornwall on Feb. 5

There were 1063 people who voted in the Democratic presidential primary in Cornwall on Tuesday, and 990 who voted in the Republican primary. It was likely the first time that any election in Cornwall brought out more Democratic voters than Republican. (Cornwall has 3070 registered Republicans and 2340 registered Democrats.)

"It's a historic election," says Arthur Davidson, chair of the Cornwall Democratic Committee. "This has never happened before. An African-American running for the Democratic nomination for president..and a woman... If this doesn't get you excited about politics, nothing would."

For those of us looking at state races is November, this could be a very good sign of things to come...

Breakdown Of New York Primary Results By Congressional Districts

by: phillip anderson

Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 16:20:35 PM EST

Gary Ackerman, 5th CD, Queens and Nassau
Clinton: 72.3 percent
Obama: 27.7 percent

Yvette Clarke, 11th CD, Kings
Clinton: 44.2 percent
Obama: 55.8 percent

Joseph Crowley, 7th CD, Bronx and Queens
Clinton: 62.7 percent
Obama: 37.3 percent

Eliot Engel, 17th CD, Bronx, Rockland, Westchester
Clinton: 53.6 percent
Obama: 46.4 percent

Vito Fossella, 13th CD, Kings and Richmond
Clinton: 64.4 percent
Obama: 35.5 percent

Carolyn Maloney, 14th CD, New York and Queens
Clinton: 57.4 percent
Obama: 42.5 percent

Gregory Meeks, 6th CD, Queens
Clinton: 44.2 percent
Obama: 55.8 percent

Jerrold Nadler, 8th CD, Kings and New York
Clinton: 57.3 percent
Obama: 42.7 percent

Charles Rangel, 15th CD, New York and Queens
Clinton: 53.8 percent
Obama: 46.2 percent

José Serrano, 16th CD, Bronx
Clinton: 68.5 percent
Obama: 31.4 percent

Edolphus Towns, 10th CD, Kings
Clinton: 42 percent
Obama: 58 percent

Nydia Velázquez, 12th CD, Kings, New York, Queens
Clinton: 64.8 percent
Obama: 35.2 percent

Anthony Weiner, 9th CD, Kings and Queens
Clinton: 72.2 percent
Obama: 27.8 percent

Check the link for more and also check out btp's county breakdown from around the Rochester area.

(h/t to the Wonkster)

Super Tuesday: Dems Win Big

by: phillip anderson

Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:48:19 AM EST

Democrats: 11 million
Republicans: 7 million

We win.

Live From The Tank, It's The New York Primary Results Thread!

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 19:47:07 PM EST

Also, if you are in NYC, you should come on down to the Tank for Super Fat Tuesday!

11:03: Just chillin' at the Tank and Dan Squadron has meandered in and now we're sharing a beer.  ~Roatti
10:55 Can we go 3-1? With 93% reporting, 1,620,306 Dems have cast votes in the NY Primary compared to 560,281 for the GOoPs.
10:24 With 77% reporting Dems have cast 1,313,074 votes in New York compared to 465,370 for the GOoPs.
10:15: Random thought: I think the Giants parade really hurt Obama in NY and NJ; I was there and the audience was like 99% male- Obama has a large lead among male voters and those less committed might have been too tired to vote after the parade. ~Roatti
10:05: Paul Newell and 16 of his volunteers(!!!) are here- he gives y'all a big shoutout!  ~Roatti
9:48 With 24% reporting, Dems have cast 371,165 votes to 156,065 for the GOoPs.
9:30 Roatti in the hiz-house!~Roatti
9:21 John McCain wins the Republican Primary in New York as well as all 101 GOP delegates, projects CNN.
9:16 Once again from the CNN exit poll, Obama won young voters (18-29) 58%-40%. Hillary won every other age group.
9:10 Women turn out for Hillary in New York. CNN exit polls show the Democratic electorate that showed up in NY was 58% female and they broke for Hillary 62%-36%.
9:04 CNN Projects Hillary Clinton as the Winner of the New York Primary
9:00 Polls are closed!
8:01pm Early exit poll rumors:

New York: Clinton 56, Obama 42
New Jersey: Obama 52, Clinton 47

Take these with a major grain of salt.

New York Primary: I'm Sure You Probably Know This

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 16:58:53 PM EST

A reader suggested that I remind folks of this. She was right. So, there ya go.

Also, if you need information about finding your polling place or anything else to do with the New York Primary, check out the Super Tuesday page from the New York Dems. There's all kinds of great info there.

I Voted For Obama

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 16:05:38 PM EST

This really wasn't an easy choice for me, at least not as easy as many may have thought. I was a Dodd supporter and flirted with John Edwards after Dodd dropped out. While I'll freely admit have misgivings about both the Democrats left standing, I also realize with great pride that both our candidates are infinitely preferable to anyone on the other side.

But, today I had to bite the bullet and make a choice. I chose Barack Obama. I think Meteor Blades over at DailyKos echoes my thoughts on this choice perfectly:

I have reservations, misgivings, worries about Senator Obama. But tomorrow when I cast my ballot, I'll vote for him. I'll jettison my doubts and accept the key themes of his campaign: hope and change. I hope he's willing to go far in shaping a post-Cold War, post-9/11 foreign policy that tosses aside the pernicious myth of American exceptionalism and overcomes the denial that America has an empire, which is not a good thing for the world, or America. I hope to see him go far in separating himself from the corporate forces that influence (and frequently direct) government policy at home and abroad. I hope the changes he initiates for dealing with global warming and health care and prison reform will be a match for his spell-binding oratory. I hope he will avoid falling prey to the myth that race in America has been transcended and that he will renew the fight against racism in its many guises. I hope that he will let no day pass in which he does not seek ways to do something about what John Edwards so rightly labeled the two Americas. I hope he will be braver as a President on gay rights than he has been as a candidate.

So, there. It's official. I'm for Obama.

Good Morning, Democracy!

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:56:02 AM EST

The first photo is how excited and hopeful I was at 6:15am in our local public school cafeteria / gymnasium, about to be the first person to vote in my district.

The second is my paper ballot because my machine was broken.  Not the entire machine -- just one column -- which I discovered because I was curious and decided to test all the columns.

So that's my vote.  What are the chances it will get counted?  I had to add my own line that "machine was broken" -- not one of the options on the provisional ballot.

This is how democracy works, or, ya know, doesn't, in the largest city in the nation.

Shameful.

Q Poll: Obama Closing On Clinton In NY And NJ

by: phillip anderson

Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 11:21:30 AM EST

llinois Sen. Barack Obama could make it a fourth quarter surprise for Sen. Hillary Clinton among Democratic likely presidential primary voters in New Jersey and has gained ground on Sen. Clinton in New York, according to two separate Quinnipiac University polls released today. Arizona Sen. John McCain has commanding leads over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among likely Republican primary voters in both states.

In New York, Sen. Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 53 - 39 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, compared to 51 - 25 percent January 22.

McCain leads Romney 54 - 22 percent among likely Republican voters, up from 30 - 9 percent in a January 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac  University. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee gets 9 percent.

In New Jersey, Clinton edges Obama 48 - 43 percent among likely Democratic voters, compared to 49 - 32 percent January 23.

McCain tops Romney 52 - 30 percent among likely Republican voters, compared to 29 - 14 percent January 23. Huckabee and Texas Congressman Ron Paul get 6 percent each.

Sen. Obama has put together a coalition of blacks and independents to dramatically narrow the gap in just the last few days in New Jersey, but the big question remains: Will there be enough of these new, young, first time voters showing up to pull a surprise on Super Tuesday?" said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Obama has gained yardage in New York, but the clock is running out and Sen. Clinton still has the home field advantage," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

I think the clock will run out on any chance of Obama winning either state outright, but the fact remains that he is going to win a not insubstantial number of delegates from two states that Clinton really should have had locked up a long time ago. If this primary were happening a week or so later, things could have gotten very interesting.

Everything You Need To Know About The New York Primary

by: phillip anderson

Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:16:07 AM EST

Next week, Democrats across New York will have their chance to take part in nominating our party's next candidate for president. On February 5th Democrats in New York will head to the polls and select 151 voting delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver this summer. New York has a total of 281 delegates-the second highest of any state in the country-and on Tuesday your vote can make a big difference.

The New York State Democratic Party is working hard to ensure New York has a record breaking turnout on Tuesday. That's why we're announcing today a new web resource with everything you need to know to participate on Super Tuesday. You'll find critical info about how to participate in Tuesday's primary, how to support your favorite candidate, as well as a listing of Primary Night parties and more.

On Primary Night, our site will have up-to-the-minute results from the State Board of Elections, and, starting today, you can sign up for Primary Night e-mail/Blackberry updates and text message alerts.

Well done, NY Dems.

New Q Poll Has Rudy And McCain Tied In NY

by: phillip anderson

Tue Jan 22, 2008 at 09:02:31 AM EST

Arizona Sen. John McCain is tied 30 - 30 percent with former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani among New York State likely Republican presidential primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets 9 percent, with 8 percent each for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Cue ridiculous analysis by Maurice Carroll:

"If he can't make it here, he can't make it anywhere. What happens to Mayor Giuliani's presidential prospects if he doesn't score a resounding victory in his native New York?" asked Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Piling On: Marist Has McCain Up 15 On Rudy In NY

by: phillip anderson

Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 13:40:03 PM EST

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY 2008
SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN LEADS AMONG REPUBLICANS IN NEW YORK STATE:

John McCain outpaces the Republican field of presidential candidates including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani among New York's registered Republicans. Despite Giuliani's hopes for a strong showing in New York, right now, 34% of registered Republicans including those leaning to a candidate support McCain compared with 23% for Giuliani. Among Republicans likely to vote in the February 5th primary, McCain maintains his support of 34%, but Giuliani is tied for second with former Governor Mitt Romney at 19%. Former Governor Mike Huckabee receives 15% among Republicans likely to vote

Years ago, I would have referred to such an occurrence as a "faceplant."

It's Official: McCain Leads Rudy By Wide Margin In New York

by: phillip anderson

Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 09:48:41 AM EST

Rudy Falls Behind McCain; Hillary Still Has 2-to-1 Lead

McCain has the support of 36 percent of Republicans, followed by Giuliani at 24 percent, former Governor
Mitt Romney at 10 percent, Governor Mike Huckabee at 7 percent, and former Senator Fred Thompson at
6 percent. Seventeen percent of Republicans remain undecided. Giuliani led McCain 48-15 percent on
December 10. Giuliani leads McCain in New York City 45-23 percent. McCain leads in the downstate
suburbs 39-30 percent and upstate 37-15 percent. Among Republican men, McCain leads 44-16 percent,
while Giuliani leads among women 33-28 percent.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of New York voters and unfavorably by 27 percent. For the first
time ever in a Siena New York poll, more voters view Giuliani unfavorably, 48 percent, than favorably,
44 percent. Among Republicans only, Giuliani has a 63-31 percent favorable rating, while McCain has an
even stronger 71-19 percent favorable rating.

Oh, and he's getting stomped by McCain in Connecticut as well. McCain is now beating Giuliani soundly in CT, PA, NJ and NEW YORK.

Forget Florida. Rudy can't even win on his own home turf.

Blood In The Water: Rudy Now Trails McCain In NJ & PA, McCain Playing For NY

by: phillip anderson

Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 08:56:18 AM EST

For the second time this week, a poll (Rasmussen) shows Giuliani trailing McCain in New Jersey. This morning we learn that McCain is now leading Giuliani by a 2-1 margin in Pennsylvania.

A year ago, Republican presidential candidate John McCain "was being left for dead" by a lot of voters, said Pennsylvania GOP spokesman Mike Barley.

But if there's anything certain in politics, it's that change is likely. And the past six months have shown a remarkable reversal of political fortune for the U.S. senator from Arizona, especially in the Keystone State.

According to a new Franklin & Marshall College Poll released yesterday, Mr. McCain has leapfrogged comfortably ahead of his nearest competitor in Pennsylvania for the GOP nomination, Rudolph W. Giuliani.

Mr. McCain now leads the former New York City mayor by 30 percent to 14 percent. That's a reversal from the last F&M poll in August, when Mr. Giuliani led Mr. McCain by 32 percent to 19 percent. Trailing them are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 12 percent, actor/politician Fred Thompson at 8 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 7 percent.

These are the states that Rudy was supposed to be able to put in play in a general election, now it appears he can't even carry them in a Republican primary.

What does this mean for New York? Nothing good for Rudy, it would seem. John McCain sees yet another large, delegate rich state with a closed primary that he could actually win and the McCain machine is making a serious play for the Empire State.

It appears more than a few people are out to ruin Giuliani's day.

The John McCain campaign machine is running at full capacity, not only in South Carolina and Nevada, but right here in the former mayor's backyard.

"In these dangerous and uncertain times, John McCain is the only candidate ready to be Commander-in-Chief on Day 1," was the phone pitch many New Yorkers started hearing recently.

Needless to say, McCain forces are working hard to capitalize on Giuliani's recent woes. It was once unthinkable that he could face a serious challenge here, but his rivals are now smelling blood.

Overall, the race is still wide open. A recent New York Times-CBS poll said 72 percent of Republican voters say they still might change their minds.

A Survey USA poll last week showed Giuliani and McCain statistically tied in New York. It was hard to fathom just 7 days ago. Now, not so much.

Not only is it possible that Giuliani could lose New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania (though he most certainly won't be a candidate when PA votes in April), he could conceivably lose on his own home turf.

Stunning.

Piling On: Rudy's Worst Day Ever

by: phillip anderson

Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 15:05:19 PM EST

NY Conservative Party To Endorse Thompson, Not Un-Conservative Rudy

In an interview to air this Sunday, state Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long tells WNBC's Gabe Pressman the party is likely to give an early nod to Fred Thompson if he manages to "break through" in South Carolina.

"As a Conservative, as the chairman of the New York state Conservative Party, my favorite candidate, naturally, is Fred Thompson," Long said. "He did very well this week in the debate. Certainly, I think in South Carolina. If he does well there, if he breaks through in South Carolina, he changes the face of this Republican race again.

He becomes an important player, then on to Florida and to the Southern states. And I think he has a shot at it. And then if he does that, I believe that us, meaning the New York state Conservative Party, will move forward and make an endorsement at an early stage to try to help him catapult the rest of the country."

Yeah, because the rest of the nation sits on pins and needles awaiting the choice of the New York Conservative Party. Now that I think about it, I'm not sure who looks worse or more irrelevant here.

Take your pick.

SUSA Poll: McCain And Rudy TIED In NEW YORK

by: phillip anderson

Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 12:39:27 PM EST

In a Republican Primary today in Rudolph Giuliani's home state of New York, 01/11/08, 25 days to the 02/05/08 vote, Giuliani is in a tight fight with John McCain, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for 7 New York state media outlets. Among all Republican Primary voters, it's Giuliani 32%, McCain 29%, within the survey's 4.6% margin of sampling error. Mike Huckabee is 3rd at 12%, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul are further back. Giuliani leads by 11 points in New York City and leads by 5 points in the NYC suburbs. McCain leads by 4 points Upstate. Giuliani leads by 17 points among voters voters age 49 and younger. McCain leads by 12 among voters age 50+. McCain leads by 9 among Moderates. Giuliani leads by 6 among Conservatives. Huckabee gets 18% among Conservatives, 18% among Pro-Life voters. Republicans who think the Economy is the most important issue back McCain 33% to 28%. Those who say Terrorism is most important back Giuliani 40% to 26%.

If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Ron Paul? Or some other Republican?

32% Giuliani
12% Huckabee
29% McCain
7% Romney
6% Thompson
3% Paul
12% Other / Undecided

Bye bye, Rudy.

Dem Primary Ballot Order Decided

by: phillip anderson

Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 18:14:19 PM EST

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Bill Richardson
3. Joe Biden
4. John Edwards
5. Barack Obama
6. Dennis Kucinich

Speaking of That Primary Ballot...

by: phillip anderson

Fri Dec 07, 2007 at 13:49:53 PM EST

Here are the totals of pages submitted by candidate:

Hillary Clinton:    4961
Barack Obama:       2872
John Edwards:       1864
Joe Biden:           894
Dennis Kucinich:     563
Bill Richardson:     352