Q Poll: New Yorkers Give Legislature All-Time Low Approval Rating

by: robert.harding

Wed Dec 16, 2009 at 09:31:21 AM EST

Only these records aren't ones to be proud of.

In today's Q poll, the New York State Legislature has its worst approval and disapproval rating of all time. The legislature's approval rating of 17 percent is the worst it has ever been and the disapproval rating of 72 percent is also a record. When you consider the all-time best approval rating in the Q poll for the legislature is 34 percent, 17 percent doesn't seem that bad. But with 72 percent of respondents disapproving of the job the Assembly and Senate are doing, it is hardly a good thing.

This is how the approval/disapproval rating breaks down:

- Only 24 percent of Democrats and nine percent of Republicans and approve of the job legislators are doing in Albany. Disapproval among Democrats is at 64 percent while Republican disapproval stands at 81 percent. Independents are in the middle, with 16 percent approving of the legislature and 74 percent disapproving.

- Men have a more negative view of the legislature than women. Only 10 percent of men approve of the legislature's work and 81 percent disapprove. Women are up slightly with 23 percent approval and 64 percent disapproval. Among races, white respondents only gave the legislature a 12 percent job approval rating while giving an 80 percent disapproval rating. The legislature received a 37 percent approval rating from black respondents and a 48 percent disapproval rating among the group. Hispanics were also a little more positive, with 30 percent approving of the legislature's job and 49 percent disapproving.

- The regional numbers show that the legislature isn't too well liked in any area of the state. The numbers in New York City are the best - 22 percent approval/64 percent disapproval - and it only gets worse from there. In the suburbs, the legislature has ratings of 15 percent approval/77 percent disapproval. Upstate is the worst (as expected) with 14 percent of upstate approving of the legislature's job and 77 percent disapproving. The urban areas of upstate gave the worst numbers of all, with only nine percent approving and 81 percent disapproving.

- When respondents were asked how satisfied they are about the direction of things in New York State, those numbers are also all-time lows. Only two percent said they were "very satisfied" and 22 percent said they were "somewhat satisfied." Three-quarters of respondents said they were either somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied (37 percent said somewhat, 38 percent said very).

- There is more support for a wage freeze than layoffs. Two-thirds (68 percent) of respondents said they would support a wage freeze while only 44 percent said they would support layoffs for state employees in an effort to balance the state budget.

- Even with such high disapproval ratings, two percent of respondents said they would rate the state legislature as the best in the nation with 27 percent saying that the legislature is "among the best." With 43 percent saying that the legislature is among the worst and 15 percent saying that the legislature is THE worst, those numbers are somewhat better than the disapproval ratings given earlier in the survey.

- There is strong support for a constitutional convention. A majority of respondents - 63 percent - said they would support a constitutional convention. Only 21 percent would oppose such a convention.

- Respondents would rather have an independent nonpartisan commission to draw districts than allowing the legislature to do so. Nearly three-quarters of respondents - 73 percent - support an independent commission over allowing the legislature to draw the lines.  

Headline Of The Day

by: phillip anderson

Mon Nov 16, 2009 at 10:20:18 AM EST

Siena poll: Cuomo's 60-point lead not within margin of error.

Ouch.

NY-23: New Ad Out Targeting Scozzafava; Club For Growth Poll Shows Tight Race

by: robert.harding

Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 17:05:24 PM EDT

Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee, leads with 20 percent. Democratic candidate Bill Owens comes in at 17 percent and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman also has 17 percent.

In case you don't know who the Club For Growth is, they are a pretty conservative group that wants to see the Bush tax cuts made permanent and believes in expanding free trade. So having this group come up with a poll that has such a diverse opinion of all three candidates is worth noting.

But like any of these polls, take it for what it's worth. There were only 300 people polled and the margin of error was over five percent.

The poll summary also shows the problems that the Republicans and conservatives (and perhaps Conservatives) will have as this race progresses. Those who are conservative Republicans might abandon their party and put ideology first by supporting Hoffman, who has separated himself as the conservative in this race while labeling Owens and Scozzafava as "liberals."

It does open up a chance for Owens to take the moderate vote (and apparently just as much of the conservative vote as Hoffman has) and win this election. I know people have certain opinions of Owens, but after learning more about him, he's not a bad candidate. (More on Owens later.)

Also out today is a new ad from the DCCC targeting Dede Scozzafava. This is in response to the ads sent out yesterday by the NRCC tying Owens to Pelosi in an attempt to, like Hoffman, make Owens look liberal.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Paterson's Favorable Rating Down, Gillibrand's Numbers Drop

by: robert.harding

Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 11:51:05 AM EDT

Governor Paterson has a 29 percent favorable rating in the new poll. It is the first time since May that his numbers dropped below 30 percent and does not serve him well after the news came out that President Barack Obama doesn't want Paterson to run next year. It is hard to make a case for Paterson running next year with numbers like that a year out from the primary.

When asked about next year's elections, 71 percent said that they "prefer someone else" over Paterson. That is a tie for the highest percentage of respondents saying that they want someone other than Paterson. Only 14 percent said they would elect Paterson.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo fares better than Paterson in a primary and against hypothetical general election opponents. If the race between Cuomo and Paterson was held today, Cuomo would win 66 percent to 20 percent. In general election contests, Paterson beats Republican Lazio 39 percent to 35 percent with Cuomo beating Lazio 64 percent to 18 percent. Paterson loses to Republican Rudy Giuliani 52 percent to 35 percent with Cuomo knocking off Giuliani 52 percent to 39 percent.

By comparison, Cuomo's favorable rating is at 66 percent. In a separate question, 47 percent of respondents said that they would rather see Cuomo run for governor than attorney general.

For Gillibrand, the numbers are a little better given her time in office (eight months) and her status as still a statewide unknown. Her favorable rating is 29 percent, which is the same as last month. However, her unfavorable rating is at 24 percent - the highest it has been since Siena starting asking people about Gillibrand.

The poll only focused on one possible opponent for Gillibrand this month and that was Giuliani. In the matchup, Giuliani would win 46 percent to 38 percent. Those numbers aren't bad considering Giuliani's name recognition statewide compared to Gillibrand. But it does show Gillibrand has a long way to go.

A final stat to take notice of in the poll is this question:

As things stand now, if the election for State Senate were held today, would you vote to re-elect your incumbent Senator or would you prefer someone else?

Only 38 percent of respondents said they would vote to re-elect their incumbent senator. Another 45 percent said they would vote for someone else. Those numbers are worth highlighting because of everything that has happened in the state senate. I don't think it should sweep up the good senators, but I do hope it rids the New York State Senate of ineffective legislators whose only goal in Albany is to line their own pockets and expand their influence.

POLL: 89 Percent Of Voters Think Albany Needs At Least Minor Changes

by: robert.harding

Tue Sep 15, 2009 at 11:50:30 AM EDT

Today's Marist poll has a lot of statistics there that don't speak well for Albany.

For example, three months after the coup took place, 70 percent of respondents said they were angry with what happened in the New York State Senate. Only 26 percent said that they weren't upset with it.

70% of New York State registered voters say they are angry about the situation in the Senate while 26% report they are not.  These proportions are virtually unchanged from when Marist last asked this question in June.  As in that survey, outrage transcends party lines.  72% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans, and 67% of non-enrolled voters admit to feeling this way.  These attitudes remain little changed since Marist's previous poll.

And, this translates into a poor job approval rating for the Senate.  A majority - 54% - of registered voters across the state report that the Senate is performing poorly.  Just 14% think the legislative body is doing either an excellent or good job, and three in ten think they are performing only fairly well.

Perhaps the biggest stat of all is the one about reform in Albany. Most New Yorkers want reform in Albany, but the numbers speak volumes for what kind of action citizens want their elected leaders to take.

68% of registered voters statewide think the way things are done in state government in Albany needs major changes.  21% report daily political operations require minor changes, 10% think they are broken and beyond repair, and only 1% of voters say they do not need to be changed.  More than seven in ten Democrats and Republicans - 71% and 70%, respectively - think Albany needs a major, political overhaul.  60% of non-enrolled voters agree.

Let's think about this: 68 percent of respondents said that they want major changes. Another 21 percent said that they want minor changes. That means 89 percent of those surveyed believe that some changes need to be made. That is a huge number, considering only one percent of voters said that nothing needs to be altered. Talk of ethics reform legislation has occurred in recent days, but nothing is set in stone yet.

Another interesting focus of the poll was support for a constitutional convention. The Marist poll found 48 percent oppose a constitutional convention while 42 percent support it. To break it down even further, more Republicans (56 percent) than Democrats (44 percent) oppose it.

Reform is needed in Albany. Some want it sooner rather than later. Rushed reform merely to score political points is not reform. What we need are reforms that will be set in stone and help every single assemblymember and senator who goes to Albany be better for it.

NY-Sen: Poll Paid For By Maloney Says Maloney Is Winning

by: robert.harding

Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 15:53:51 PM EDT

But a private poll conducted on behalf of Maloney might be an attempt to get publicity for Maloney or it could be seen as an attempt to diminish Gilliband as nothing more than a conservative, pro-gun, pro-tobacco and anti-immigrant lawmaker.

The results of the poll showed that Maloney was supported by 34 percent of respondents compared to 32 percent for Gillibrand. Considering this poll was conducted for Maloney, that isn't an impressive figure. But that's the number Maloney's people are touting.

The number they are pushing is the tally taken after all the questions were asked. Maloney leads 49 percent to 25 percent over Gillibrand when those surveyed heard all of the arguments against Gillibrand. Of course, that is expected. If you push (hence a push poll) certain arguments onto people, they will form a biased opinion about the person you are pushing that negative information about. In this case, that person is Gillibrand, who was framed as a pro-gun, pro-tobacco and anti-immigrant conservative who didn't compare to the much more liberal Maloney.

While Maloney's people might be using this poll to show why Gillibrand isn't the right candidate, it really doesn't show why Maloney is the right candidate. It paints a negative picture right at the beginning of a race (presumably, this is the beginning) and it will probably be Maloney's approach for the duration of this race.

Gillibrand has provided her stance on guns, which is not a pro-gun view. While she does respect the rights and liberties provided to responsible gun owners, she also believes in gun safety and keeping guns out of the hands of criminals.

She has made her position on immigration clear that she supports comprehensive immigration reform.

And the claims about her being pro-tobacco come from her days working in a law office prior to her becoming an elected official.

I'm not impressed with Maloney's approach. As I have said before, I want to know why she would be better. Why would she be better than Gillibrand? Don't just throw negatives out there and try to run off of those. Throw out some positives and explain why you would be a better choice.

Siena Poll: Gov Continues Slide, Marriage Equality Gaining Steam

by: phillip anderson

Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 10:45:56 AM EDT

The numbers for Paterson are pretty much universally bad, but the one that really sticks out is this one. Only 12 percent of New Yorkers are prepared to vote for Paterson next year. A whopping 71 percent are looking to vote for an unnamed "someone else." The Governor even loses out to his immediate predecessors as New Yorkers would prefer to see Mario Cuomo, George Pataki, or even Eliot Spitzer back in office over Paterson.

"Voters are pining for the days of Mario Cuomo (39 percent) and George Pataki (33 percent) as Governor," Greenberg said. "A plurality of Democrats and independent voters would choose Mario and a majority of Republicans chose George. While 14 percent of all voters want to see Spitzer back in the Capitol, only eight percent would opt to have Paterson as Governor if choosing among the last four to hold that office."

That's gotta hurt.

In other news, a majority of the state now supports Marriage Equality for all New Yorkers, support that is strongest in New York City, but is strong in all regions of the state.

Interesting times, these.

Q-Poll: 53% Of New Yorkers Say Paterson Shouldn't Run

by: phillip anderson

Mon Apr 06, 2009 at 09:51:38 AM EDT

Voters Say 3-1 Paterson Does Not Deserve Election, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Say He Should Announce Now He Won't Run

New York State voters disapprove 60 - 28 percent of the job Gov. David Paterson is doing, the lowest approval ever for a New York Governor, and say 63 - 22 percent that he does not deserve to be elected to a full four-year term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Gov. Paterson's approval is so low that he should announce now that he won't run for election to a four-year term next year, 53 percent of voters tell the independent Quinnipiac University poll, while 39 percent say he can restore his reputation and should run next year. Even Democrats say 49 - 45 percent that he should drop out of the race now.

New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, with a near-record high 75 - 14 percent approval rating, tops Paterson in a Democratic primary 61 - 18 percent.

In a general election, Republican Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, tops Paterson 53 - 32 percent.

Cuomo tops Giuliani 53 - 36 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

Voters disapprove 70 - 19 percent of the way Paterson is handling the New York State budget. Democrats disapprove 63 - 25 percent.

"So long, David, voters tell Gov. Paterson. His job approval tanks at 28 percent. The slide started with the Caroline Kennedy flap and deepened with the humongous state budget passed last week. The budget was an opportunity for Paterson to reverse his slide, but voters disapprove almost 4-1 of the way he handled it," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Don't wait for 2010, Governor, New Yorkers say. Announce now that you won't run. Voters say almost 3-1 Paterson doesn't deserve a full 4-year term."

Voters aren't the only ones sending Paterson a message either. Liz reports that top Dem donors are telling the Governor privately that he'd better turn his numbers around quick, November at the latest, or he should forget about a 2010 run for a full term.

Top New York Democrats have privately set a deadline of early November for Gov. Paterson to turn his poll numbers around or they'll urge him not to run next year.

"The idea is to let him get through the budget and get through the summer," said a prominent Democratic donor who sees the fall elections as the cutoff for Paterson's improvement.

"Nobody really wants to go to a sitting Democratic governor who's African-American and say, 'Hey. You're a disgrace. Get out.'"

Paterson allies hold out hope he'll be able to mount a timely comeback, but admit his historically low job approval rating - a March Siena poll pegged it at 19% - presents a significant challenge.

"Even if he went up 100%, it wouldn't be much," the donor said. "The goal is to be close to 50, but I think if he could climb over 40%, he can begin to show real momentum."

I'm sure that Rudy Giuliani hopes that the Governor is able to make something of a comeback, at least enough of one to make a credible run and scare off any potential Dem primary challengers. Smelling blood in the water, Giuliani is once again hitting the GOP fundraising circuit and making noises about a run for Governor. (He could use a new gig as his firm, Giuliani Partners, is tanking) Giuliani would be crushed in a general election against Cuomo, but could most likely beat soundly a mortally wounded Paterson. Rudy's only real shot at the Governor's mansion is keeping Paterson on the ballot.

Given this, it shouldn't surprise anyone that a majority of New Yorkers seem to want Paterson to hang it up.

NY-20: Tedisco Push Polling

by: phillip anderson

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 20:06:46 PM EDT

I just got Robo-polled by Tedisco. Starts out asking if I am a registered voter. Then if I intend to vote in the special. Then if I intend to vote for Tedisco. Then if Murphy. Then it says Murphy has said he'll raise taxes on Seniors to pay for S.S. Do I agree with him? Then it says Murphy will raise taxes on New York tax payers even though he hasn't paid his taxes Do I agree with him? Then it asks if am pro-life or pro-choice. Then it goes to whether I agree with the NRA's strong position on gun ownership. Then it asks if after all this I still intend to vote for Murphy. Then a couple demographic questions regarding gender and age. Closes stating that it was paid for by Jim Tedisco for Congress, 518-373-2702.

hope they actually listen to the responses because I did a lot of swearing about bullshit push-polling in my answers. I left out the parts where it came back and said I had to answer yes or no or repeat.

It seems this reader is not alone. This dKos diarist got the call as well and posted a transcript:

The call came in on my fax line, which is not listed anywhere, so I guess they were doing random calling.

It was a recorded message asking me to take a 45 second query.  As far as I could remember it went like this:

Are you registered to vote?

Are you planning to vote in the March 31 election to fill Kirsten Gillibrand's seat?

Do you support Tedisco?

Do you support Scott Murphy?

Then the lies and misrepresentations started:

Does it bother you that Scott Murphy advocates raising taxes on senior citizens to pay for Social Security and Medicare?

Does it bother you that Scott Murphy is a businessman, but he hasn't paid all the taxes he owes the government?

Does it bother you that Scott Murphy thinks it's OK to let Wall Street excutives keep there bonuses?

(I said no to all the "questions" they asked.)

Then I decided to mess with their heads. Every answer I gave below is a lie.

Do you think of yourself as Pro-life?  Yes

Do you consider yourself a Republican? Yes

Do you agree with the NRA that is important to protect the rights of gun owners?  Yes  (I was close to gagging now)

Then the call asked some 2 demographic questions - age and gender.

At the end they did indicate the call was paid for by the Jim Tedisco campaign.

The "Panic at Tedisco" continues. After finding their lead gone and now trailing, the NRCC drags Osama Bin Laden and 9/11 out of the bag of dirty tricks and now we've got robo push polling.

What does this all mean? It means they're scared witless.

GOTV

NY-20: DCCC Internal Poll Also Shows Murphy Lead

by: phillip anderson

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 17:32:32 PM EDT

Dems' internal poll shows edge in N.Y. race

Bidding for New York's 20th district seat, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco by two percentage points in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's internal polling.

The poll, obtained by The Hill from a Democratic source, shows Murphy leading Tedisco 43 percent to 41 percent in the race for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) former House seat.

The DCCC's poll was taken earlier this week, before the Siena College poll released Friday that showed Murphy leading Tedisco by four percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

The Siena poll was the first to show Murphy leading Tedisco. Tedisco quickly responded, issuing a statement that said his campaign's polling shows him ahead of Murphy.

"Heading into Election Day, our campaign's internal polling shows us continuing to lead, just as we have for this entire race," Tedisco said. "Today's Siena poll is simply another in a line of polls that show this race within the margin of error. In the end this race is coming down to voter intensity and turnout, and our internal polls show us with strong leads in both areas."

Two things. First, this is where I would usually throw in the caveats about this being a partisan poll and take with a grain of salt and all that. But, this poll would seem to complement the trend expressed in the independent polling so far. In this case, D-trip's poll looks pretty kosher.

Second, what the hell is the Tedisco camp talking about here? They have polling that shows them leading in "intensity" and "turnout"? Really?

That is some nifty poll that can gauge Tuesday's turnout a week or so out.

GOTV

NY-20: New Siena Poll Shows 4 Point Murphy Lead

by: phillip anderson

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 10:12:52 AM EDT

This morning's poll shows that independents are evenly split, that Murphy is seen as running a more positive campaign and that Tedisco's ads are still turning people off.

Murphy Takes 4-Point Lead Over Tedisco in Final Week
Tedisco Campaign Seen as More Negative; Murphy's More Positive

Loudonville, NY. As the special election in the 20th C.D. enters the final weekend, Democrat Scott Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47-43 percent, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45-41 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. Tedisco's campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44-25 percent margin, while Murphy's campaign is seen as more positive. Regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45-35 percent margin, voters think Tedisco will win the election.

"While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points. In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.

"Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent. Independents are virtually tied, with Tedisco leading 45-44 percent, after trailing with independents by six points two weeks ago and leading by 14 points four weeks ago," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's 16-point lead in Rensselaer and Saratoga Counties two weeks ago is down to six points. Murphy slightly expanded his lead in the northern counties from 25 to 29 points, and turned a seven-point deficit in the southern portion of the district into a two-point lead in two weeks."

"Murphy is now virtually as well known to voters as Tedisco, and Murphy has a slightly better favorable rating, 49-38 percent, than Tedisco's 48-41 percent," Greenberg said. "Senator Kirsten Gillibrand continues to be rated favorably by more than three-quarters of voters, while President Obama is viewed favorably by nearly two-thirds.

"At least nine in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for both Tedisco and Murphy. By a margin of 30-23 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them less likely to vote for him. Two weeks ago voters said, 28-20 percent, Murphy's ads made them more likely to support Murphy. Tedisco's commercials fare even worse with voters. Only 14 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 37 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco (12-28 percent two weeks ago). About half of voters said both candidates' ads have no effect on who they are supporting," Greenberg said.

Forty-two percent of voters credit Murphy with waging the more positive campaign, compared to 25 percent who say that describes Tedisco. Similarly, by a 44-25 percent margin, voters say Tedisco has been running a more negative campaign than Murphy. Nearly one in five voters says it's both candidates. More than two-thirds of Democrats say Murphy's campaign is more positive and Tedisco's more negative. Republicans see it more even, with 36 percent saying Murphy's been more negative and 29 percent saying Tedisco. Independents say Tedisco's more negative by 42-25 percent margin.

This is great news and all and seems to confirm the movement described in other polls being leaked all week. That said, these low turnout special elections are notoriously difficult to predict. It' going to come down to which campaign gets their people to the polls on Tuesday and to things like the weather. (Weather looks nice, btw)

GOTV.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress

NY-20: New Polls Show Toss Up, NRCC Poll Shows Murphy Lead

by: phillip anderson

Wed Mar 25, 2009 at 17:36:12 PM EDT

Three Polls Show NY-20 a Toss Up
In addition to the RNC poll we mentioned earlier that shows Jim Tedisco (R) leading Scott Murphy (D) by three points in the NY-20 special election next week, Political Wire now has confirmation that a NRCC poll actually shows Murphy leading by two points.

Tedisco's own internal polling shows him leading by just one point.

Election Day is next Tuesday, March 31.

G.O.T.V.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.

Siena Poll: Paterson Slips Even Further, Only 19% Job Approval

by: phillip anderson

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 10:07:19 AM EDT

Paterson's Standing with Voters: from Bad to Worse
2/3 Prefer "Someone Else" in 2010; Gov Crushed by Cuomo, Giuliani

David Paterson is now viewed unfavorably by twice as many New York voters as those who view him favorably, and four times as many voters rate the job he is doing as Governor as only fair or poor compared to those who say he is doing an excellent or good job as Governor, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters. If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Paterson is viewed favorably by 29 percent of voters and unfavorably by 58 percent, down from last month?s 40-47 percent rating. His job performance rating is 19 percent positive, 78 percent negative down from 28-69 percent last month. Only 14 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67 percent who prefer "someone else." That?s down from 19-57 percent last month.

"Both in personal popularity and job performance, David Paterson?s standing with voters continues to slide," said Steven Greenberg, Siena New York Poll spokesman. "The speed of his falling numbers is staggering. Two months ago, 60 percent of voters viewed Paterson favorably, and now it?s less than half of that. Similarly, while more than half of voters said the Governor was doing an excellent or good job two months ago, now fewer than one-in-five believes that, with more than three-quarters saying he?s doing only a fair or poor job. More than two-thirds of voters prefer "someone else? for Governor next year."

In a hypothetical 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Cuomo leads Paterson 67-17 percent, up from last month?s 53-27 percent. In December Paterson led 49-26 percent. In a potential general election matchup, Giuliani beats Paterson 56-33 percent, up from 51-36 percent last month. Paterson led 51-38 percent in December. Cuomo leads Giuliani 51-41 percent, similar to last month?s 51-38 percent.

"The Governor should be grateful he does not have to face the voters anytime soon," Greenberg said. "Against Giuliani, Paterson only leads with African American voters, Democrats and barely with New York City voters. Against Cuomo, Paterson trails big with every demographic group, including African American voters, who give Cuomo a 55-22 percent lead. And by a similar 52-25 percent margin, African American voters prefer „someone else? over Paterson."

Cuomo has a 68-17 percent favorable rating and a 67-26 percent job performance rating, his highest ever. Giuliani has 58-36 percent favorable rating.

Voters continue to believe the state is headed in the wrong direction (52 percent), rather than on the right track (30 percent). More than nine in ten voters say the state?s fiscal condition is poor or fair, including 60 percent who say it?s poor. By a 50-36 percent margin, voters say that the country is headed on the right track.

The poll also found that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's numbers are also suffering, though more than half of New Yorkers still know too little about her to form an opinion. Senator Gillibrand's approval/disapproval fell from 34/20 last month to 26/20 this month.

All in all, it looks increasingly obvious that Paterson may indeed be dead in the water. Numbers like this can only impact negatively on his fundraising. As I said last month, these stories tend to snow ball and reinforce each other.

I just don't see how he and his crew turn this around.  

NY-20: The Trend, Illustrated

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 11:15:14 AM EDT

I like the looks of that.

NY-20: New Siena Poll Shows Tedisco Lead Cut To Just 4 Points

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 10:17:25 AM EDT

Republican candidate Jim Tedisco - 45 (-1)
Democratic candidate Scott Murphy - 41 (+7)
Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall - 1 (+1)

Wow.

From Siena:

Murphy Cuts Tedisco's Lead From 12 to 4 Points
Tedisco Rated Better on 4 Issues; Murphy on 2, Including Economy
Murphy Now Leads with Independent Voters, After Trailing 2 Weeks Ago

Loudonville, NY. With less than three weeks until the special election in the 20th C.D., Democrat Scott Murphy has cut Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco's 12-point lead by two-thirds. Tedisco now leads the race 45-41 percent, having led two weeks ago by a 46-34 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy.

"Scott Murphy has significantly narrowed the gap against Jim Tedisco, trailing by only four points in a district that has a 15-point Republican enrollment edge," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "Only 13 percent of voters remain undecided - down from 20 percent - and nearly 90 percent of voters say they are absolutely or fairly certain they will not change their minds.

"Murphy continues to do a better job of holding the support of Democrats, than Tedisco does with Republicans. The big turnaround from two weeks ago, however, is among independent voters, who previously gave Tedisco a significant 45-31 percent lead, and now favor Murphy by a 43-37 percent margin," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's leads in the Capital District and Hudson Valley fell slightly, while Murphy turned a slim two-point lead in the northern counties of the district into a now dramatic 25-point lead."

"Both candidates have become more known to voters over the last few weeks, as airwaves have been inundated with commercials and mailboxes have been filled with messages from both campaigns," Greenberg said. "Tedisco remains better known, with both higher favorable and unfavorable ratings from the voters.

"Eight in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for Murphy, while 86 percent have seen or heard a Tedisco ad. By a margin of 28-20 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them more likely to vote for him, with half of voters saying it has no effect on who they plan to support. Only 12 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 28 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco, with 58 percent saying they have had no effect," Greenberg said.

"Voters continue to overwhelmingly think Tedisco will do a better job on homeland security. And by small margins, they also give him the edge on health care, education and bringing federal money into the district. Now, however, more voters think that Murphy will do a better job on successfully ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and on addressing the economy, which is far and away the most important issue voters want their new Member of Congress to address," Greenberg said.

Emphasis mine.

This race is going to be tight and, as always with specials, it'll come down to good, old fashioned GOTV. But, this is a very winnable race. The CW was that this was Tedisco's to lose.

It looks as if he just may lose it after all.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.

NY-20: New Poll Shows Murphy Cuts Lead To 7

by: phillip anderson

Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 10:29:00 AM EDT

Democrat Scott Murphy has slashed into the huge lead once held by Republican Jim Tedisco in the New York special House election scheduled for March 31, according to a new Democratic-sponsored poll.

Tedisco, the state Assembly minority leader, holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Murphy, a 39-year-old venture capitalist, according to the late February survey by the Benenson Strategy Group. The margin was 44 to 37 percent, with Libertarian Eric Sundwall at 4 percent, and 15 percent of voters undecided.The poll was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The poll was conducted Feb. 24-25, and included interviews with 400 likely voters in the Upstate New York district.

...

But the controversy has allowed Murphy to cut into Tedisco's once seemingly impregnable lead. Early polls had Tedisco up by 20-plus points, while a Siena Research Institute poll two weeks ago still had him holding a 12-point edge.

Republicans dismissed the latest DCCC poll as a natural tightening in a district that Gillibrand carried easily, and where President Barack Obama's approval ratings hover at the 70 percent range.

...

Democrats, though, were pleased with the polling results, and vowed to make significant independent expenditures for the race. They would not provide any specific number on how much the party plans to dump into the effort.

"We're moving forward, being cautiously optimistic," said Brian Wolff, the DCCC's executive director. "The stimulus package and the economy, and our candidate, are striking a tone with voters in the 20th District."

Emphasis mine as I think it's important to not when this poll was taken.

Yeah, it's a partisan poll and all usual caveats apply. That said, it's pretty easy to see how this is happening. Also, it seems that the more folks learn about Scott Murphy, the more they like what they see.

One thing is for sure. Murphy's got the 'mo. If he had cut the lead to 7 weeks ago, where are those numbers today? Given Tedisco's widely panned debate performance, continued bad press and further stumbles, it's hard to imagine that the trend has arrested itself or even reversed.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.

Marist Poll: Paterson Plunges 20 Points In One Month

by: phillip anderson

Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 13:39:24 PM EST

Freefall!  Governor Paterson's Approval Rating Plummets 20 Percentage Points...Lands at 26%: New Yorkers are sending a strong message to Governor David Paterson, "Shape Up!"  Just 26% of registered voters report the governor is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  That's a drop of 20 percentage points since the Marist Poll last asked this question at the end of January.  In fact, Governor Paterson's approval rating is the lowest approval rating a New York State governor has received in the Marist Poll's nearly thirty year history of statewide surveys.  Has the governor lost favor within his own party?  Here's the party breakdown.  Among registered Democrats in New York State, 30% think Paterson is doing an above average job while 65% disagree.  Across the aisle, Republicans also overwhelmingly disapprove of Paterson's performance.  Just 26% of members of New York's GOP approve of the job Paterson is doing as governor while 72% think he is doing a fair or poor job.  Only 20% of non-enrolled voters agree that Paterson is doing well in the position.  Opinions across the state are consistently low.  24% of upstate voters approve of the job Paterson is doing as governor.  26% of suburban voters say he is doing an above average job, and 30% of New York City voters share this position.

I was speaking with a pretty well connected insider the other day and we both came to roughly the same conclusion about the Governor's slide. While their is still time on the clock and these numbers could conceivably be turned around in that span, I don't have much confidence in this Governor or the folks he's surrounded himself with actually being able to pull that off. I and my friend could be wrong, but we don't currently see any significant reason to believe so.

Paterson Is In Serious Trouble

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 24, 2009 at 12:35:56 PM EST

According to the SRI, his favorable/unfavorable number plunged from 54/30 to 40/47. It was 64/19 three months ago.

Only 28% of New Yorkers approve of his job performance compared to 69% who think he's stinking up the joint. Last month, 51% approved while only 45% disapproved.

Even worse, only 19% of voters are prepared to vote for Paterson next year. 59% prefer an unnamed "someone else." That's a 3 to 1 preference for someone without a name. To put this in perspective, 42% of voters in November preferred Paterson to the 32% who preferred the candidate to be named later.

That, friends, is just brutal.

And it gets worse. In potential 2010 matchups, Paterson is losing ground at a furious clip. He loses a hypothetical Democratic primary against Andrew Cuomo by 2 to 1, 27% to 53%. In November, Siena had these numbers reversed, with Paterson crushing 53% to 25%. That was a scant three months ago. Hell, the Governor lost 20 points against the Attorney General in the last month. Ouch.

As for potential GOP challengers, Paterson enjoys his one bright spot. He waxes poor Rick Lazio 46% to 28%. Great. But, Cuomo beats the hapless Lazio by a whopping 66% to 16%.

Against the "walking. sometimes talking mountain of fail" that is Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses badly, 51% to 36%. Last month, Paterson beat Rudy 44% to 42%, a -17% swing in thirty days. In December, Paterson beat Rudy 51% to 38%.

In contrast, Cuomo beats Giuliani this month by the exact same margin, 51% to 38%.

To make matter even worse, 53% of New Yorkers think that the state is heading in the wrong direction, the highest ever recorded by Siena, compared to only 31% who think the state is on the "right track." 65% think that New York's economy is "poor." Only 37% believe their elected leaders are capable of solving the crisis compared to 61% who have no confidence at all that the budget crisis will be solved.

All these numbers add up to big, serious, profound trouble for Governor Paterson. If he really wants to be elected to a full term next year, he's got to turn this thing around and do it awfully damn quick. Numbers like these are will begin to severely damage his fundraising, a task that was already more difficult thanks to the economy's nosedive. That leads to more stories about how he's not viable in 2010 and to more headlines about a rudderless administration and to...more polls showing how he's not viable in 2010. It's a vicious cycle that can very easily begin to snowball and reinforce itself.

Paterson and his crew had better get it together and stop this freefall if they are to have any chance at all in 2010. Otherwise, they will be doing not much more than wasting everyone's time and money.

Q Poll: Paterson Continues To Slide, Now Trailing Cuomo; Gillibrand Still Unknown

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 17, 2009 at 09:52:26 AM EST

In hypothetical 2010 matchups, Paterson ties Rudy Giuliani and gets crushed by Cuomo. Gillibrand would slightly trail Rep Carolyn McCarthy though most New Yorkers seem not to know much about either of them. Oh, and Gillibrand would beat the pants off wingnut Rep Peter King in a general.

The Caroline Kennedy caper continues to bedevil New York Gov. David Paterson as he trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 55 - 23 in an early look at a 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a general election matchup, Gov. Paterson ties former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a possible Republican challenger, 43 - 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Paterson leads 70 - 18 percent among Democrats, while Giuliani leads 80 - 9 percent among Republicans and 47 - 38 percent among independent voters. New York City voters go with Paterson 52 - 35 percent, while Giuliani leads 48 - 36 percent among suburban voters and 47 - 38 percent upstate.

Attorney General Cuomo leads Giuliani 51 - 37 percent in the Governor's race, ahead 81 - 11 percent among Democrats and 45 - 40 percent among independent voters. Giuliani leads 76 - 11 percent among Republicans. Cuomo is up 61 - 30 percent in New York City and 48 - 41 percent in the suburbs and gets 44 percent of upstate voters to Giuliani's 42 percent.

New York State voters approve 45 - 41 percent of the job Paterson is doing, his lowest approval rating in 11 months as Governor and down from 50 - 30 percent January 26.

Voters disapprove 52 - 35 percent of the way Paterson handled the appointment of a U.S. Senator to fill Hillary Clinton's seat. Disapproval is similar across the political spectrum.

"The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In numbers which could tempt Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to take another shot at Governor, Paterson trails Cuomo 2 - 1 among Democratic voters and scratches out a tie with Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the general election."

...

While voters are not happy with the process, they do approve 45 - 33 percent, with 22 percent undecided, of Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand as U.S. Senator. Even Republicans approve 42 - 33 percent.

Sen. Gillibrand gets a 28 - 10 percent job approval rating, with 62 percent undecided. Similarly, she gets a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 65 percent who haven't heard enough.

A possible challenger in the 2010 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, has a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 66 percent who haven't heard enough.

And U.S. Rep. Peter King, a possible 2010 Republican challenger for the Senate seat, has a 21 - 10 percent favorability, with 68 percent who don't know enough to decide.

Rep. McCarthy tops Sen. Gillibrand in a Democratic primary 34 - 24 percent, with 39 percent undecided.

In a general election matchup with Rep. King, Gillibrand is up 42 - 26 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

2010 is certainly shaping up to be a rather interesting year.

By The Numbers: Folks Really Like Obama, Glad to See Bush Go.

by: phillip anderson

Tue Jan 20, 2009 at 11:35:46 AM EST

In with the new, out with the old

It doesn't really matter which poll you consult - Zogby, Pew, Gallup - they all show the same thing: Incoming president Barack Obama is hitting new highs in public support, while outgoing President George W. Bush is hitting new lows.

To be fair, it's like comparing apples and oranges: Bush's record includes 9/11, Katrina, two wars, a controversial re-election, and an economic meltdown of historic proportions. Meanwhile, Obama's record includes a low-key decade as a state senator and U.S. senator.

But there's no denying the numbers are impressive. Even Obama's incoming numbers are handing Bush's a thrashing - a pre-inaugural poll by Pew Research Center finds that 79 percent of Americans have a "favorable impression" of the incoming leader. In 2001, George W. Bush had to make do with 60 percent. Pew reports that Obama even has more optimists on his side.

...

Bush isn't facing downhill numbers alone. Trust in his party is waning as well. A Washington Post-ABC News poll reports that "just 23 percent said they trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the main problems facing the nation."

It's not a great mystery as to why folks seem to have such a poor opinion of our departing President. He pretty much sucked. I mean, even SNL knew he was going to suck months before he actually took the oath: