Siena Poll: Paterson Slips Even Further, Only 19% Job Approval

by: phillip anderson

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 10:07:19 AM EDT

Paterson's Standing with Voters: from Bad to Worse
2/3 Prefer "Someone Else" in 2010; Gov Crushed by Cuomo, Giuliani

David Paterson is now viewed unfavorably by twice as many New York voters as those who view him favorably, and four times as many voters rate the job he is doing as Governor as only fair or poor compared to those who say he is doing an excellent or good job as Governor, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters. If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Paterson is viewed favorably by 29 percent of voters and unfavorably by 58 percent, down from last month?s 40-47 percent rating. His job performance rating is 19 percent positive, 78 percent negative down from 28-69 percent last month. Only 14 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67 percent who prefer "someone else." That?s down from 19-57 percent last month.

"Both in personal popularity and job performance, David Paterson?s standing with voters continues to slide," said Steven Greenberg, Siena New York Poll spokesman. "The speed of his falling numbers is staggering. Two months ago, 60 percent of voters viewed Paterson favorably, and now it?s less than half of that. Similarly, while more than half of voters said the Governor was doing an excellent or good job two months ago, now fewer than one-in-five believes that, with more than three-quarters saying he?s doing only a fair or poor job. More than two-thirds of voters prefer "someone else? for Governor next year."

In a hypothetical 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Cuomo leads Paterson 67-17 percent, up from last month?s 53-27 percent. In December Paterson led 49-26 percent. In a potential general election matchup, Giuliani beats Paterson 56-33 percent, up from 51-36 percent last month. Paterson led 51-38 percent in December. Cuomo leads Giuliani 51-41 percent, similar to last month?s 51-38 percent.

"The Governor should be grateful he does not have to face the voters anytime soon," Greenberg said. "Against Giuliani, Paterson only leads with African American voters, Democrats and barely with New York City voters. Against Cuomo, Paterson trails big with every demographic group, including African American voters, who give Cuomo a 55-22 percent lead. And by a similar 52-25 percent margin, African American voters prefer „someone else? over Paterson."

Cuomo has a 68-17 percent favorable rating and a 67-26 percent job performance rating, his highest ever. Giuliani has 58-36 percent favorable rating.

Voters continue to believe the state is headed in the wrong direction (52 percent), rather than on the right track (30 percent). More than nine in ten voters say the state?s fiscal condition is poor or fair, including 60 percent who say it?s poor. By a 50-36 percent margin, voters say that the country is headed on the right track.

The poll also found that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's numbers are also suffering, though more than half of New Yorkers still know too little about her to form an opinion. Senator Gillibrand's approval/disapproval fell from 34/20 last month to 26/20 this month.

All in all, it looks increasingly obvious that Paterson may indeed be dead in the water. Numbers like this can only impact negatively on his fundraising. As I said last month, these stories tend to snow ball and reinforce each other.

I just don't see how he and his crew turn this around.  

NY-20: The Trend, Illustrated

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 11:15:14 AM EDT

I like the looks of that.

NY-20: New Siena Poll Shows Tedisco Lead Cut To Just 4 Points

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 10:17:25 AM EDT

Republican candidate Jim Tedisco - 45 (-1)
Democratic candidate Scott Murphy - 41 (+7)
Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall - 1 (+1)

Wow.

From Siena:

Murphy Cuts Tedisco's Lead From 12 to 4 Points
Tedisco Rated Better on 4 Issues; Murphy on 2, Including Economy
Murphy Now Leads with Independent Voters, After Trailing 2 Weeks Ago

Loudonville, NY. With less than three weeks until the special election in the 20th C.D., Democrat Scott Murphy has cut Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco's 12-point lead by two-thirds. Tedisco now leads the race 45-41 percent, having led two weeks ago by a 46-34 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy.

"Scott Murphy has significantly narrowed the gap against Jim Tedisco, trailing by only four points in a district that has a 15-point Republican enrollment edge," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "Only 13 percent of voters remain undecided - down from 20 percent - and nearly 90 percent of voters say they are absolutely or fairly certain they will not change their minds.

"Murphy continues to do a better job of holding the support of Democrats, than Tedisco does with Republicans. The big turnaround from two weeks ago, however, is among independent voters, who previously gave Tedisco a significant 45-31 percent lead, and now favor Murphy by a 43-37 percent margin," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's leads in the Capital District and Hudson Valley fell slightly, while Murphy turned a slim two-point lead in the northern counties of the district into a now dramatic 25-point lead."

"Both candidates have become more known to voters over the last few weeks, as airwaves have been inundated with commercials and mailboxes have been filled with messages from both campaigns," Greenberg said. "Tedisco remains better known, with both higher favorable and unfavorable ratings from the voters.

"Eight in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for Murphy, while 86 percent have seen or heard a Tedisco ad. By a margin of 28-20 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them more likely to vote for him, with half of voters saying it has no effect on who they plan to support. Only 12 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 28 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco, with 58 percent saying they have had no effect," Greenberg said.

"Voters continue to overwhelmingly think Tedisco will do a better job on homeland security. And by small margins, they also give him the edge on health care, education and bringing federal money into the district. Now, however, more voters think that Murphy will do a better job on successfully ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and on addressing the economy, which is far and away the most important issue voters want their new Member of Congress to address," Greenberg said.

Emphasis mine.

This race is going to be tight and, as always with specials, it'll come down to good, old fashioned GOTV. But, this is a very winnable race. The CW was that this was Tedisco's to lose.

It looks as if he just may lose it after all.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.

NY-20: New Poll Shows Murphy Cuts Lead To 7

by: phillip anderson

Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 10:29:00 AM EDT

Democrat Scott Murphy has slashed into the huge lead once held by Republican Jim Tedisco in the New York special House election scheduled for March 31, according to a new Democratic-sponsored poll.

Tedisco, the state Assembly minority leader, holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Murphy, a 39-year-old venture capitalist, according to the late February survey by the Benenson Strategy Group. The margin was 44 to 37 percent, with Libertarian Eric Sundwall at 4 percent, and 15 percent of voters undecided.The poll was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The poll was conducted Feb. 24-25, and included interviews with 400 likely voters in the Upstate New York district.

...

But the controversy has allowed Murphy to cut into Tedisco's once seemingly impregnable lead. Early polls had Tedisco up by 20-plus points, while a Siena Research Institute poll two weeks ago still had him holding a 12-point edge.

Republicans dismissed the latest DCCC poll as a natural tightening in a district that Gillibrand carried easily, and where President Barack Obama's approval ratings hover at the 70 percent range.

...

Democrats, though, were pleased with the polling results, and vowed to make significant independent expenditures for the race. They would not provide any specific number on how much the party plans to dump into the effort.

"We're moving forward, being cautiously optimistic," said Brian Wolff, the DCCC's executive director. "The stimulus package and the economy, and our candidate, are striking a tone with voters in the 20th District."

Emphasis mine as I think it's important to not when this poll was taken.

Yeah, it's a partisan poll and all usual caveats apply. That said, it's pretty easy to see how this is happening. Also, it seems that the more folks learn about Scott Murphy, the more they like what they see.

One thing is for sure. Murphy's got the 'mo. If he had cut the lead to 7 weeks ago, where are those numbers today? Given Tedisco's widely panned debate performance, continued bad press and further stumbles, it's hard to imagine that the trend has arrested itself or even reversed.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.

Marist Poll: Paterson Plunges 20 Points In One Month

by: phillip anderson

Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 13:39:24 PM EST

Freefall!  Governor Paterson's Approval Rating Plummets 20 Percentage Points...Lands at 26%: New Yorkers are sending a strong message to Governor David Paterson, "Shape Up!"  Just 26% of registered voters report the governor is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  That's a drop of 20 percentage points since the Marist Poll last asked this question at the end of January.  In fact, Governor Paterson's approval rating is the lowest approval rating a New York State governor has received in the Marist Poll's nearly thirty year history of statewide surveys.  Has the governor lost favor within his own party?  Here's the party breakdown.  Among registered Democrats in New York State, 30% think Paterson is doing an above average job while 65% disagree.  Across the aisle, Republicans also overwhelmingly disapprove of Paterson's performance.  Just 26% of members of New York's GOP approve of the job Paterson is doing as governor while 72% think he is doing a fair or poor job.  Only 20% of non-enrolled voters agree that Paterson is doing well in the position.  Opinions across the state are consistently low.  24% of upstate voters approve of the job Paterson is doing as governor.  26% of suburban voters say he is doing an above average job, and 30% of New York City voters share this position.

I was speaking with a pretty well connected insider the other day and we both came to roughly the same conclusion about the Governor's slide. While their is still time on the clock and these numbers could conceivably be turned around in that span, I don't have much confidence in this Governor or the folks he's surrounded himself with actually being able to pull that off. I and my friend could be wrong, but we don't currently see any significant reason to believe so.

Paterson Is In Serious Trouble

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 24, 2009 at 12:35:56 PM EST

According to the SRI, his favorable/unfavorable number plunged from 54/30 to 40/47. It was 64/19 three months ago.

Only 28% of New Yorkers approve of his job performance compared to 69% who think he's stinking up the joint. Last month, 51% approved while only 45% disapproved.

Even worse, only 19% of voters are prepared to vote for Paterson next year. 59% prefer an unnamed "someone else." That's a 3 to 1 preference for someone without a name. To put this in perspective, 42% of voters in November preferred Paterson to the 32% who preferred the candidate to be named later.

That, friends, is just brutal.

And it gets worse. In potential 2010 matchups, Paterson is losing ground at a furious clip. He loses a hypothetical Democratic primary against Andrew Cuomo by 2 to 1, 27% to 53%. In November, Siena had these numbers reversed, with Paterson crushing 53% to 25%. That was a scant three months ago. Hell, the Governor lost 20 points against the Attorney General in the last month. Ouch.

As for potential GOP challengers, Paterson enjoys his one bright spot. He waxes poor Rick Lazio 46% to 28%. Great. But, Cuomo beats the hapless Lazio by a whopping 66% to 16%.

Against the "walking. sometimes talking mountain of fail" that is Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses badly, 51% to 36%. Last month, Paterson beat Rudy 44% to 42%, a -17% swing in thirty days. In December, Paterson beat Rudy 51% to 38%.

In contrast, Cuomo beats Giuliani this month by the exact same margin, 51% to 38%.

To make matter even worse, 53% of New Yorkers think that the state is heading in the wrong direction, the highest ever recorded by Siena, compared to only 31% who think the state is on the "right track." 65% think that New York's economy is "poor." Only 37% believe their elected leaders are capable of solving the crisis compared to 61% who have no confidence at all that the budget crisis will be solved.

All these numbers add up to big, serious, profound trouble for Governor Paterson. If he really wants to be elected to a full term next year, he's got to turn this thing around and do it awfully damn quick. Numbers like these are will begin to severely damage his fundraising, a task that was already more difficult thanks to the economy's nosedive. That leads to more stories about how he's not viable in 2010 and to more headlines about a rudderless administration and to...more polls showing how he's not viable in 2010. It's a vicious cycle that can very easily begin to snowball and reinforce itself.

Paterson and his crew had better get it together and stop this freefall if they are to have any chance at all in 2010. Otherwise, they will be doing not much more than wasting everyone's time and money.

Q Poll: Paterson Continues To Slide, Now Trailing Cuomo; Gillibrand Still Unknown

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 17, 2009 at 09:52:26 AM EST

In hypothetical 2010 matchups, Paterson ties Rudy Giuliani and gets crushed by Cuomo. Gillibrand would slightly trail Rep Carolyn McCarthy though most New Yorkers seem not to know much about either of them. Oh, and Gillibrand would beat the pants off wingnut Rep Peter King in a general.

The Caroline Kennedy caper continues to bedevil New York Gov. David Paterson as he trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 55 - 23 in an early look at a 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a general election matchup, Gov. Paterson ties former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a possible Republican challenger, 43 - 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Paterson leads 70 - 18 percent among Democrats, while Giuliani leads 80 - 9 percent among Republicans and 47 - 38 percent among independent voters. New York City voters go with Paterson 52 - 35 percent, while Giuliani leads 48 - 36 percent among suburban voters and 47 - 38 percent upstate.

Attorney General Cuomo leads Giuliani 51 - 37 percent in the Governor's race, ahead 81 - 11 percent among Democrats and 45 - 40 percent among independent voters. Giuliani leads 76 - 11 percent among Republicans. Cuomo is up 61 - 30 percent in New York City and 48 - 41 percent in the suburbs and gets 44 percent of upstate voters to Giuliani's 42 percent.

New York State voters approve 45 - 41 percent of the job Paterson is doing, his lowest approval rating in 11 months as Governor and down from 50 - 30 percent January 26.

Voters disapprove 52 - 35 percent of the way Paterson handled the appointment of a U.S. Senator to fill Hillary Clinton's seat. Disapproval is similar across the political spectrum.

"The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In numbers which could tempt Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to take another shot at Governor, Paterson trails Cuomo 2 - 1 among Democratic voters and scratches out a tie with Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the general election."

...

While voters are not happy with the process, they do approve 45 - 33 percent, with 22 percent undecided, of Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand as U.S. Senator. Even Republicans approve 42 - 33 percent.

Sen. Gillibrand gets a 28 - 10 percent job approval rating, with 62 percent undecided. Similarly, she gets a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 65 percent who haven't heard enough.

A possible challenger in the 2010 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, has a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 66 percent who haven't heard enough.

And U.S. Rep. Peter King, a possible 2010 Republican challenger for the Senate seat, has a 21 - 10 percent favorability, with 68 percent who don't know enough to decide.

Rep. McCarthy tops Sen. Gillibrand in a Democratic primary 34 - 24 percent, with 39 percent undecided.

In a general election matchup with Rep. King, Gillibrand is up 42 - 26 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

2010 is certainly shaping up to be a rather interesting year.

By The Numbers: Folks Really Like Obama, Glad to See Bush Go.

by: phillip anderson

Tue Jan 20, 2009 at 11:35:46 AM EST

In with the new, out with the old

It doesn't really matter which poll you consult - Zogby, Pew, Gallup - they all show the same thing: Incoming president Barack Obama is hitting new highs in public support, while outgoing President George W. Bush is hitting new lows.

To be fair, it's like comparing apples and oranges: Bush's record includes 9/11, Katrina, two wars, a controversial re-election, and an economic meltdown of historic proportions. Meanwhile, Obama's record includes a low-key decade as a state senator and U.S. senator.

But there's no denying the numbers are impressive. Even Obama's incoming numbers are handing Bush's a thrashing - a pre-inaugural poll by Pew Research Center finds that 79 percent of Americans have a "favorable impression" of the incoming leader. In 2001, George W. Bush had to make do with 60 percent. Pew reports that Obama even has more optimists on his side.

...

Bush isn't facing downhill numbers alone. Trust in his party is waning as well. A Washington Post-ABC News poll reports that "just 23 percent said they trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the main problems facing the nation."

It's not a great mystery as to why folks seem to have such a poor opinion of our departing President. He pretty much sucked. I mean, even SNL knew he was going to suck months before he actually took the oath:

Siena Poll: New Yorkers Want To Close Budget Gap By Cutting Spending On 'Something Else'

by: phillip anderson

Mon Nov 17, 2008 at 10:12:50 AM EST

Now consider this new poll from Siena. The poll shows that New Yorkers think the budget gap should be closed with cuts in spending as opposed to tax increases. When asked where the budget ax should fall - on education or healthcare, the biggest expenditures in the budget - a plurality said "somewhere else."

Three-quarters of voters think the state budget gap should be closed by cutting spending, while 10 percent support increasing taxes and nine percent favor borrowing money. At least two-thirds of voters from every region and party support spending cuts. When given a choice of five areas for the state to cut, 23 percent chose aid to local government, 18 percent transportation/infrastructure, seven percent education, six percent health care, and the winner was 44 percent for "something else." When matched head-to-head regarding what to cut, voters are evenly divided - 39 percent for each - between cutting health care and education.
"Voters are loud and clear about opposing tax increases to close the state budget gap. Read our lips, 'no new taxes,' is the message to the Governor and Legislature," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "On the other hand, when asked whether Governor David Paterson would be able to hold to his current position of opposing tax increases only 19 percent of voters thought he would, compared to 77 percent who believe he will wind up supporting a tax increase.

"When it comes to the issue of what to cut, voters don't have a lot of good advice for the Governor and lawmakers. It's clear, however, that they don't want cuts in the two largest areas of the state budget - education and health care," Greenberg said. "And when it comes to which tax to raise, nearly two-thirds of voters say raise business taxes, one-quarter say sales tax, and only eight percent say raise the income tax."

The Governor is in a tight spot. Dean Skelos has no incentive to play ball and is steadfast against any cuts to education spending. Shelly Silver is essentially untouchable and has no real reason to produce a plan of his own. The public wants him to cut billions of dollars of spending on "something else" instead of raising revenues and has what appears to be a rather limited understanding of what the budget actually is and where the money is.

There seems to be little oxygen in the room for what seems to me the fairest way to bridge this gap, namely cuts and revenue increases on those who can afford it most. Balancing the state's budget solely on the backs of working families and services like public education they consume is neither fair nor will it be sufficient to solve the problem. Slashing aid to local governments will cost taxpayers far more than the savings in Albany as those local governments will raise property taxes and cut services. Cutting billions of dollars of "something else" isn't a plan either. The burden of closing this gaping hole in our state's budget should be spread amongst all New Yorkers.

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that any of the current "three men in a room" sufficiently get that. Neither does a large part of the public.

On Leaked Exit Polls

by: phillip anderson

Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 14:04:35 PM EST

They sat in my fridge until New Years Eve.

Any minute now, the first exit polls will start to show up on blogs and in your inbox. IGNORE THEM.

Why?

Here are 10 excellent reasons.

G.O.T.V.

BREAKING: New Siena Polls Are Out: Foley Trouncing Trunzo, Stach Is Back

by: phillip anderson

Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:52:38 AM EST

The biggest numbers to pop out is the lead Brian Foley has over Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) and the huge comeback by incumbent Dem Bill Stachowski. Foley leads Trunzo by a whopping 22 points and Stachowski has turned a 13 point deficit into a 4 point lead.

A rundown:

3rd SD - Suffolk County - Caesar Trunzo (R, incumbent) vs. Brian Foley (D)

Foley has a 56-34 percent lead over Trunzo. Trunzo led 46-40 percent in the previous Siena New York Poll. While Foley has picked up a little more support among Democrats, he has cut Trunzo's lead among Republican voters to 53-39 percent, down dramatically from 71-16 percent. Additionally, Foley has opened up a 63-27 percent lead among independent voters, up from 43-40 percent previously.

Foley has expanded a two-point lead in Brookhaven to a 12-point lead, and reversed 12-point deficit in Islip and turned it into 30-point lead. Where Trunzo had a nine-point lead among voters 55-years of age and older, Foley now leads with those voters 52-40 percent. Foley leads by 13 points with men and 30 points with women. The only demographic group in which Trunzo leads is among Republicans.

If Foley leads by even 10 points in Trunzo's Islip backyard, this thing is over. The poll shows a 30 point lead. And before the GOoPs start screaming about the poll sample, look at the Obama/McCain numbers. They are essentially dead even. It's not like they are only polling Dems.

6th SD - Nassau County - Kemp Hannon (R, incumbent) vs. Kristen McElroy (D)

Hannon has a commanding 56-30 percent lead, in a district that is virtually evenly enrolled between Republicans and Democrats. Hannon has the support of 80 percent of Republicans and picks up the support of nearly one-third of Democrats. McElroy only wins among Democrats 55-32 percent, while only attracting support from 10 percent of Republicans. Hannon leads among independent voters 56-21 percent.

McElroy leads among young voters and those in the Council District 1 section of the Hempstead portion of the Senate district. However, Hannon has much bigger leads in the remainder of the district and has better than 60 percent among voters who are at least 35-years old.

Ouch. Got some work to do here.

15th SD - Queens County - Serph Maltese (R, incumbent) vs. Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D)

Addabbo currently has a slim 45-43 percent lead over Maltese. In the September Siena poll, the two were tied at 42 percent, in this district that has an overwhelmingly Democratic enrollment edge. Maltese has the support of more than three-quarters of Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats. Addabbo leads 61-27 percent among Democrats and picks up the support of 20 percent of Republicans. Maltese leads among independent voters 51-31 percent. Maltese leads by four points with men, while Addabbo has a seven-point lead with women. Addabbo leads in the southern part of the district and Maltese leads in the north.

Maltese is viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 33 percent of voters, down from a 48-16 percent favorable rating previously. Addabbo's favorable rating is 42-30 percent, and was previously 38-20 percent.

Obama leads McCain in this district 57-32 percent, up from 49-31 percent.

Maltese is deep doo doo here. Throw him an anvil.

48th SD - Oswego/Jefferson/St. Lawrence - Darrel Aubertine (D, incumbent) vs. David Renzi (R)

Aubertine, who had a 51-31 percent lead over Renzi in the last poll, has seen that lead drop to 49-38 percent. Aubertine has the support of nearly three-quarters of Democrats and more than one-third of Republicans in this district with a heavy Republican enrollment edge. Renzi leads 57-35 percent with Republicans, up from 41-37 percent previously, and only gets 13 percent of Democrats. Aubertine is winning among independent voters 49-34 percent, up from 41-37 percent previously. While Renzi has erased a 20-point Aubertine lead in Oswego County, and now leads there 44-37 percent, Aubertine has widened his leads in Jefferson (25 points, up from 16) and St. Lawrence (30 points, up from 27) Counties.

Aubertine is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 31 percent of voters, down from 58-21 percent previously. Renzi has a 40-35 percent favorability rating; previously it was 34-15 percent.

Aubertine is going to fine.

58th SD - Erie County - William Stachowski (D, incumbent) vs. Dennis Delano (R)

Stachowski now has a 47-43 percent lead over Delano, after trailing 49-36 percent in the previous Siena poll in this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge. Stachowski has increased his lead among Democrats to 62-30 percent (up from 51-34 percent). Delano maintains a 63-25 percent lead among Republicans (virtually unchanged from 64-23 percent) and has seen his lead among independent voters fall to 54-36 percent, down from 67-19 percent.

Whereas Delano led in all three sections of the district previously, Stachowski now leads 47-37 percent in Buffalo/Lackawanna, 48-45 percent in Cheektowaga, and 47-44 percent in the southern suburbs. Stachowski has a 12-point lead with men, while Delano has a two-point lead with women. Delano has a significant lead with Protestants. Stachowski leads with Catholics, and has a big lead among younger voters.

Stachowski has a 50-31 percent favorable rating. It had been 39-14 percent. Delano's favorable rating, 53-33 percent, is down from 63-15 percent. Delano continues to have a positive favorable rating with voters of every party, while Stachowski has increased his favorability among Democrats but lost ground with independent voters and saw his favorability among Republicans drop from 35-12 percent to 29-50 percent.

More than half of voters would like to see the Senate controlled by Democrats, and Obama has opened 55-37 percent lead over McCain, up from 45-41 percent previously.

"Senator Stachowski has turned this race around. In four weeks he has erased a 13-point deficit and turned it into a tight four-point lead. Where Delano previously had a much better favorable rating with voters, the two are now viewed by voters in virtually the same light. We will have to wait until Election Day to see if Stachowski continues his momentum to win re-election, or if Delano can turn this race back around again and defeat a 27-year incumbent in this overwhelmingly Democratic district," Greenberg said.

Stach is back. That's what a comeback looks like. I guess the more folks learn about Delano, the less they like what they see. Also, this one of those races that an Obama wave could seriously affect. If that wave reaches Buffalo, Stachowski could end up blowing Delano right out of the water.

61st SD - Erie and Genesee Counties - Michael Ranzenhofer (R) vs. Joseph Mesi (D)

Ranzenhofer has a 47-42 percent lead over Mesi, who had a slimmer 40-38 percent lead in the previous Siena poll, in this district where Republicans have a very small enrollment edge over Democrats. Ranzenhofer leads among Republicans 69-25 percent, up from 59-21 percent. Mesi leads among Democrats 62-29 percent, closer than the previous 63-19 percent. Mesi leads among independent voters 42-37 percent, although Ranzenhofer closed the gap from 43-28 percent. Mesi leads in Tonawanda by seven points (down from 10). Ranzenhofer leads in the Clarence/Newstead/Genesee County portions of the district by 15 points (up from two points), and in Amherst by three points (up a tick from two points).

Ranzenhofer has a 47-26 percent favorable rating, compared to 35-12 percent previously. Mesi's favorable rating is 46-37 percent, compared to 45-18 percent in the previous Siena poll.

While the race has shifted seven points from Mesi to Ranzenhofer, a reverse trend occurred on the question of who voters support to control the Senate. Previously, voters supported Republican control by a 44-38 percent margin, while now a slim plurality, 43-41 percent, support Democratic control. The presidential race also flipped, with McCain's 45-40 percent lead now becoming a 51-42 percent lead for Obama.

"This district is close in enrollment between Republicans and Democrats. The voters are close in their view on which party should control the Senate. The voters have switched their support from McCain to Obama over the last few weeks. And a small Mesi lead has turned into a slightly wider Ranzenhofer lead. Which party's voters turn out in larger numbers on Tuesday may well determine the outcome of this race. Either way, it figures to be a late night as the votes get counted in this race," Greenberg said.

This one may very well come down to Obama's GOTV operation as well. If his voters show in force, I think Mesi wins this thing. Mesi likes to remind folks that he is undefeated. If the Obama wave does indeed materialize in the manner that it appears to be, he'll be able to call himself undefeated still. Give him a hand.

Much more on these polls coming soon.

New Siena Polls: Johnson, Oppenheimer Crushing; Dollinger, Konst Trailing

by: phillip anderson

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 09:57:10 AM EDT

7th SD - Nassau County - Craig Johnson (D, incumbent) vs. Barbara Donno (R)

Johnson has a 50-35 percent lead over Donno, down from a 49-25 percent lead in the previous Siena New York Poll. Johnson has the support of more than three-quarters of Democrats, while Donno has the support of more than two-thirds of Republicans. Johnson has a nearly two-to-one lead among independent voters, 50-28 percent, up from 36-24 percent in the last poll. Donno's overall gain in the poll comes largely from Republican voters, where she went from leading 47-28 percent, to now leading 68-19 percent.

Johnson is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 28 percent of voters (36-17 percent last poll). Donno currently has a 29-23 percent favorable rating (16-9 percent last poll).

...

37th SD - Westchester County - Suzi Oppenheimer (D, incumbent) vs. Liz Feld (R)

Oppenheimer has maintained a large 64-29 percent lead over Feld, down slightly from 61-24 percent in the previous poll. While Oppenheimer has support from 88 percent of Democrats, Feld is only winning among Republicans 64-30 percent. Oppenheimer has a better than two-to-one, 59-28 percent, lead among independent voters. Oppenheimer leads in every region and with virtually every demographic group.

...

56th SD - Monroe County - Joseph Robach (R, incumbent) vs. Richard Dollinger (D)

Robach leads Dollinger 52-39 percent, edging up slightly from 49-38 percent in the last poll. Robach has the support of 84 percent of Republicans and 34 percent of Democrats in this district with a large Democratic enrollment edge. Dollinger has the support of 55 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Republicans. Robach leads among independent voters 56-37 percent, up from 46-34 percent. Dollinger leads by 11 points in Rochester and eight points in Brighton, however, Robach leads 67-27 percent in Greece and Parma.

...

Obama has a commanding 61-32 percent lead over McCain.(!)

...

59th SD - Erie/Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming - Dale Volker (R, incumbent) vs. Kathy Konst (D)

Volker has a 50-39 percent lead over Konst, down six points from the last poll, when he led 50-33 percent. Volker has the support of three-quarters of Republicans, while Konst wins among Democrats 60-28 percent. Konst now leads among independent voters 47-40 percent, after trailing with these voters 43-28 percent previously. Volker has a small three - point lead in the Erie County portion of the district and a large 23-point lead in the Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming Counties portion of the district.

Much, much work to do. If you are in or near the 56th or the 59th, now is the time to get off the bench. I still think that the Rocbach/Dollinger race is going to turn largely on the Obama GOTV effort. Obama leads McCain 2-1 in that district and the urban parts of Rochester are going to be key. If you are anywhere near there, now is the time to get involved. This is a winnable race, folks.

More soon. Stay tuned.

On the web:

Rick Dollinger for State Senate

Kathy Konst for State Senate

New Pew Poll Shows Obama +16: This Has To Be An Outlier, Right?

by: phillip anderson

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:57:10 AM EDT

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew's latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

A breakdown of voting intentions by demographic groups shows that since mid- September, McCain's support has declined significantly across most voting blocs. Currently, McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans). In addition, Obama runs nearly even with McCain in the so-called red states, all of which George W. Bush won in 2004.

Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.

I'd love to believe this, but it just seems pretty far out of whack with the other national polls.

Of course, I'd also love to be dead wrong about it too.

POLL: Who Gets Our Dough?

by: robert.harding

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 00:37:33 AM EDT

Who gets Roatti's and Robert's money?

NY-29: Research2000/DKos Poll - Massa 49 - Kuhl 42

by: phillip anderson

Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 16:06:28 PM EDT

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Kuhl (R) 42
Massa (D) 49

O2B candidate Eric Massa is obviously running a fantastic race -- winning independents by double digits, winning over 12 percent of Republicans while losing only 5 percent of Democrats, and sitting just a hair-width away from taking a seat he lost by just three percentage points in 2006. In fact, Eric Massa has outraised wife abuser Randy "Shotgun" Kuhl by a narrow margin, something you don't see every day. Incumbents usually vastly outraise challengers, but Massa ran a great race in 2006, and has learned the right lessons from his first bid last cycle to kick it up even higher.

the full juicy tabs on the flip...

Siena NY Poll: Obama 58 - McCain 36

by: phillip anderson

Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 11:06:08 AM EDT

If the poll, an obvious outlier, had any value, it was that it would once again give the NY GOP a glimmer of false hope. It would encourage them to publicly state again that they believed that John McCain and Sarah the Wonder Dolt were going to save their Senate majority. (this time last year it was Rudy on their white horse) Give them some hope and let them game plan around a McCain surge, I said.

Well, this morning comes news that the new Siena Poll shows 22 point lead for Barack Obama. It also shows that Sarah Palin's numbers have dropped like a stone, a phenomena seen in polling across the country in the last few weeks.

What this means for Skelos and Mondello is that the calvary ain't coming. The top of the GOP ticket isn't going to save them or their endangered incumbents.

Joe Robach, I'm looking at you.

NY-26: SurveyUSA Poll Shows Lee Has Double-Digit Lead Over Kryzan

by: robert.harding

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 13:37:06 PM EDT

The poll includes the responses of 609 likely voters. Lee came in at 48 percent - 11 points higher than Kryzan, who currently sits at 37 percent.

This is how the poll breaks down, which also included Jon Powers, who is still on the Working Families Party line and Anthony Fumerelle, who was on the Independence Party line until the line was given to Lee when Fumerelle was nominated for a judgeship.

26th Congressional District Poll
CANDIDATE	PERCENTAGE
Chris Lee (R)	48%
Alice Kryzan (D)	37%
Jon Powers (WF)	5%
Anthony Fumerelle (I)	3%
Undecided	7%
4.1% Margin of Error

There are some other notable facts from the poll:

- Lee wins among men (52 percent to 34 percent) while also winning among women (44 percent to 39 percent).

- Lee wins across all age demographics, including the 18 to 34 demographic, where he is beating Kryzan 58 percent to 29 percent. Kryzan performed best in the 50 to 64 demographic, receiving 40 percent of the vote in that section. However, the 18 to 34 demographic only made up 16 percent of all respondents, proving once again that these polls don't factor in enough of the youth vote because of cell phones, among other reasons.

- Lee is winning independents (47 percent to 32 percent) and if you factor in the independents who are supporting Fumerelle (eight percent) that lead grows.

- For those that think Powers would play a spoiler, it looks like all those assumptions are off. In fact, if the independents who were for Fumerelle all go to Lee, Lee's numbers increase to 51 percent - a 14 point difference between Lee and Kryzan.

This poll counters a DCCC-backed poll from earlier this week that showed Kryzan up ten points. I will take SurveyUSA's word over the DCCC poll. Kryzan being up ten in this district was a little weird to me, but made for a great news story and a great way to raise money for her anyway. Nevertheless, there is a lot of work to do in this district.  

All Dean's Money: More Thoughts On the Siena Polls

by: phillip anderson

Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 10:20:20 AM EDT

The point is that that money is gone. It's not coming back. Dean has dropped well over million bucks on two long shots and has gotten two blowouts in return.

Of course, this all pales in comparison to the nearly $1 million, give or take a cup of coffee or two, that Dean has dumped into defending Serph Maltese. That's a lot of money and it's only September. The result? A dead heat against 20 year incumbent. A million bucks and Maltese is still in real serious trouble.

With mad fiscal skillz like these, is it any wonder our state budget is in such a mess?

Presidential polling, state by state

by: Dan Jacoby

Fri Sep 19, 2008 at 17:08:46 PM EDT

I'm following four separate handicappers, CNN, the NY Times, Congressional Quarterly (CQ), and the Cook Political Report (Cook). The scenarios are similar, and close enough to make some predictions:

Local boy makes good

by: Exile on Ericsson St.

Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 21:41:25 PM EDT

We've written before about local Republican operative David Flaum.   It looks like our boy has finally hit the big time.  The Republican Jewish Coalition, of which Flaum is chairman, just got nabbed making nasty push poll calls:

The Republican Jewish Coalition, which is launching a campaign against Obama on behalf of Senator John McCain, sponsored the poll to "understand why Barack Obama continues to have a problem among Jewish voters," the group's executive director, Matt Brooks, told Politico. ...  

Would it affect my vote, he said, if I knew that:

Obama has had a decade long relationship with pro-Palestinian leaders in Chicago

the leader of Hamas, Ahmed Yousef, expressed support for Obama and his hope for Obama's victory

the church Barack Obama has attended is known for its anti-Israel and anti-American remarks

Jimmy Carter's anti-Israel national security advisor is one of Barack Obama's foreign policy advisors

Barack Obama was the member of a board (sic) that funded a pro-Palestinian chartiable organization

Barack Obama called for holding a summit of Muslim nations exlcuding Israel if elected president

It's probably too soon to call Flaum the Roger Stone of Rochester, but clearly he's going places.  

It's a little troubling that he's on the Board of Trustees at Syracuse University and the University of Rochester.  So much for the myth of liberal universities.