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NY-9: Siena Poll Shows 6 Point Turner Lead

by: phillip anderson

Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 10:05:10 AM EDT

Looks like Turner is surging, folks.

Turner Holds 6-Point Lead over Weprin with 4 Days To Go (pdf)

Voters View Turner Favorably & Are Evenly Divided on Weprin;
Say Turner's Campaign is More Positive & Weprin's is More Negative

Heading into the final days of the special election for New York's 9th Congressional District seat, Republican Robert Turner has taken a 50-44 percent lead over Democrat David Weprin, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely 9th CD voters released today.  In Siena College's previous poll on August 10th Weprin had led Turner 48-42 percent.

Turner is viewed favorably by 48 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 34 percent, while Weprin has a 41-41 percent favorability rating. By a 43-32 percent margin, likely voters say Turner is running the more positive campaign, and by a similar 39-30 percent margin, they say Weprin's is the more negative campaign.  

"Republican Turner heads into the final days of the campaign with a six-point lead in this heavily Democratic district after having trailedDemocrat Weprin by six points just four weeks
ago," said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. "Turner holds a small five-point lead in the Queens portion of the district, where he was trailing by 10 points in the previous Siena College Poll, and he has increased his lead in Brooklyn from six points previously to a now healthy 12-point bulge.

"While Turner has an overwhelming 90-6 percent lead among Republicans, Weprin has only a 63-32 percent lead among Democrats, and Turner has a 38-point lead among likely independent voters," Greenberg said.  "Currently, Turner enjoys a slightly larger lead among independent voters than Weprin has with Democrats. Weprin needs to find a way to win a larger share of Democratic and independent voters if he's going to turn
the race back around in the final days."

You can find the crosstabs here (pdf).

I found this bit quite interesting as well.

"While a plurality of voters says New York State is on the right track, nearly three-quarters of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction," Greenberg said. "The voters' mood on the direction of the country, coupled with the unfavorable rating of President Obama - particularly among Republicans and independents - makes this a tougher election for Weprin, or for any Democrat running in this district or a district like it.

That's troubling. If a Dem running for the seat vacated by Anthony Weiner (Pelosi's decision to force him out is looking pretty dumb right about now, no?) is facing such a headwind, Dems in less friendly territory across the nation are in trouble. According to Siena, Obama's approval rating in the district is a mere 43%. In NYC.

That's very, very bad.

On the web: Weprin for Congress.

Discuss :: (10 Comments)

NY-9: Turner Believes Zadroga 9/11 Law Shouldn't Cover Ground Zero Volunteers

by: phillip anderson

Wed Aug 24, 2011 at 16:02:32 PM EDT

The other day I told someone privately that I believed that Bob Turner, a man I pretty much despise despite my publicly stated lack of interest in this race, had about a 1 in 5 chance of pulling out a win in NY-9.

I'd like to revise that. Let's make it 1 in 10.

Zadroga 9/11 health law shouldn't cover volunteers sickened at Ground Zero, GOP hopeful Turner says

The GOP hopeful running for ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner's seat says the $4.3 billion Zadroga 9/11 health law is too broad - and shouldn't cover volunteers sickened at Ground Zero.

....

"I think it is a little too broad," Turner said.

"My call would be to protect police, fire, emergency workers, construction workers, etc.

"If someone said, 'I volunteered' or walked through there, it's just not the type," added Turner, who faces Democrat David Weprin in the Sept. 13 special election.

This is the same guy who has been trying desperately to make the phantom "Ground Zero" "Mosque" (he even uses the Pam Gellar-tastic phrase "Victory Mosque") an issue in this campaign. He even cut a TV spot using the images of the burning towers to slam Weprin over it. Classy, right?

"That day [9/11], and for months after, there were no uniforms. Volunteers worked next to rescue crews for weeks," said John Feal, a 9/11 activist and former construction supervisor who lost half his foot at Ground Zero.

"For Bob Turner to turn his back on those New Yorkers, but use images of the burning towers in campaign ads - a circus monkey can out-politic Bob Turner, he's an embarrassment to the Republican Party," fumed Feal.

So, to recap, 9/11 is perfectly OK to exploit for political gain, but those everyday New Yorkers who risked life and limb to rush the scene of the crime and do anything they possibly could to help, who spent months sifting through the smoldering rubble in Lower Manhattan to help someone's family somewhere have something they could bury with dignity, those people, well, those people are moochers who should be on their own.

Glad we cleared that up, Bob.

Oh, and go fuck yourself.

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BREAKING: I Don't Care Who Wins NY-9

by: phillip anderson

Mon Aug 22, 2011 at 12:06:09 PM EDT

I just don't. Admittedly, I haven't followed the race all that much. After watching Bob Turner drag up the "Ground Zero" "Mosque" nonsense early on, I kinda tuned out.  Then it just seemed that both candidates were seemingly running for the Knesset instead of the US House of Representatives.

This morning I read that (shockingly!) the race is now a measure of how pissed off people are at Obama which makes me care even less, really. I mean, there are plenty of working class folks in NY-9 that have plenty of reason to be pissed off at Obama and DC in general, though all the quotes from angry voters in that piece seem to suggest that they are pissed off over Fox News bullshit rather than anything, ya know, real.

Can the GOP steal a seat in NYC? I don't really care. What would either outcome mean for redistricting both downstate and upstate? Eh. Can corrupt machine douchebags like Vito Lopez and Joe Crowley pull out a win? Yawn. If they fail, could it mean the beginning of the end for those two and their empires of corrupt suckage? Now maybe you've piqued my interest some.

I guess what I'mn trying to say is that I've spent all summer ignoring this race for various reasons. The race looks like a typical bullshit fest with pretty low stakes from all angles.

So I'm asking you, am I wrong? If so, how?

Why should I or anyone else outside of NY-9 give a crap about this race?

Feel free to take me to school on this one.

Discuss :: (3 Comments)

Dominoes fall: Onorato out

by: Michael Bouldin

Mon Jan 11, 2010 at 09:37:46 AM EST

Daily News:

State Sen. George Onorato, a veteran Queens Democrat, won't seek reelection to the seat he has held since 1983, clearing the way for a run this fall by Assemblyman Michael Gianaris.

At 82, Onorato is the Senate Democrats' oldest member. His recent "no" vote on gay marriage made him vulnerable to a primary challenge, worrying party leaders who urged him to step aside, insiders said.

Jeremiah Frei-Pearson, who had been touted by reformers as a breath of fresh air untainted by the Albany incumbency, has bowed out of the race.

But soon-to-be-former Senator Onorato can stand as a testament to the career-ending risks inherent in opposing civil rights for all Americans.  

This ain't Oklahoma - or Tennessee, for that matter.

Discuss :: (3 Comments)

Monserrate Gives Up Committee Chair

by: phillip anderson

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 16:13:41 PM EDT

After his indictment earlier today, Hiram Monserrate has given up his Chairmanship of the Senate Consumer Affairs Committee. Majority Leader Malcolm Smith just released this statement after meeting with Monserrate:

"Today, Senator Monserrate and I met to discuss the proceedings he is facing. As a result of this meeting, Senator Monserrate asked to temporarily step down as Chair of the Senate's Consumer Affairs Committee. I have accepted his request and such action is effective immediately. Senator Monserrate will retain his duties as a member of the State Senate during this time, but will not have the privilege of serving as chair until such time as his legal proceedings have been completely resolved."

Earlier, Smith's spokesman, Austin Shafran, said the Senator Monserrate's indictment would be discussed in the Senate Dem conference.

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Monserrate Indicted

by: phillip anderson

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 12:31:39 PM EDT

Former NYC City Councilman and freshman state Senator Hiram Monserrate (SD-13) has been indicted on six counts stemming from a rather nasty incident last December involving his girlfriend.

New York state Sen. Hiram Monserrate was indicted Monday morning on a felony assault charge in Queens after allegedly attacking his girlfriend during an argument, CBS 2 has confirmed.

Monserrate, a former New York City councilman who was sworn into office as Senator in January despite the looming charge, will be arraigned later this week.

Monserrate was charged with assault and weapon possession after Karla Giraldo's face was slashed on Dec. 19 at his Queens home. Both Monserrate and Giraldo say the incident was an accident -- Monserrate told police that he tripped while holding a glass of water and that the glass accidentally hit her. The Queens district attorney's office said the case is pending.

But authorities say evidence, including surveillance videos, paints a more violent picture of a heated argument and a frightened, bleeding woman in distress. Investigators say Monserrate purposely smashed her face with broken glass in an apparent jealous rage.

The Queens County DA just put out a release which reads in part:

The grand jury charged Monserrate, 41, with three counts of second-degree assault, a Class D felony, and three counts of third-degree assault, a Class A misdemeanor.

According to the charges, during the early morning hours of December 19, 2008, Monserrate assaulted Karla Giraldo, 29. Ms. Giraldo was treated at a local Queens hospital, where she received stitches to the area surrounding her left eye.

Both Monserrate and his girlfriend have maintained since that night that it was an accident. The Queens DA apparently disagrees.

I'm sure this won't be the last we hear of this story.

UPDATE: Monserrate's spokesman just released a statement:

"I've said all along this was an accident. Karla has said all along this was an accident. The District Attorney's politically motivated decision to pursue this case doesn't change the fact that this was an accident."
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New York State Senate To Host Town Hall Meetings On Stimulus Package

by: robert.harding

Sun Mar 15, 2009 at 16:11:30 PM EDT

The New York State Senate held its first stimulus package town hall meeting in Queens on Thursday. Yesterday, another town hall meeting was held on Long Island to educate the public and answer questions regarding the stimulus package and its impact on their locales.

There are more stimulus package town halls to come. The New York State Senate will hold at least five more stimulus package town hall meetings, including three coming up this week.

- Federal Stimulus Package Town Hall Meeting: Albany
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
6 to 8 p.m.
College at Saint Rose
Touhey Forum
Thelma P. Lally School of Education
1009 Madison Ave.
Albany, New York

- Federal Stimulus Package Town Hall Meeting: Syracuse
Thursday, March 19, 2009
6 to 8 p.m.
Syracuse City Council Chambers
233 East Washington Street
Syracuse, New York

- Federal Stimulus Package Town Hall Meeting: Buffalo
Saturday, March 21, 2009
11 a.m. to 1 p.m.
Cheektowaga Senior Citizen's Center
3349 Broadway Street
Cheektowaga, New York

- Federal Stimulus Package Town Hall Meeting: Rochester
Thursday, March 26, 2009
6 to 8 p.m.
University of Rochester Alumni Center
300 East River Road
Rochester, New York

It should be noted that Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith helped host the first two town halls in Queens and Long Island. He will do the same in Rochester on March 26, according to his office.

If you are interested in attending, you can RSVP through Senate Majority Leader Smith's office by calling (212) 298-5585 or by using the form on the Federal Stimulus Package town hall forum website.  

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Breaking: Liu To Run For NYC Comptroller

by: phillip anderson

Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 21:28:54 PM EDT

This is, in my opinion, very good news. One of my favorite NYC pols, City Councilman John Liu, has decided to jump into the NYC Comptroller race. Examiner.com has the goods:

Queens City Council Member John C. Liu today exited the the crowded field of candidates vying for the Democratic Party's nomination for City Public Advocate to instead join fellow Queens Council Members David I. Weprin and Melinda Katz in seeking his Party's nomination for City Comptroller.

Liu cited his strong financial background as why he'd make a good comptroller.  His campaign slogan will be, "A proven record of fiscal responsibility."

"Now more than ever, we need a Comptroller who will root out waste and inefficiency as budget cuts are imposed, and ensure accountability and equal opportunity as billions in stimulus funding arrive," said Liu. "With my professional background in finance and my experience in city government, combined with my demand for fairness and equality, I will be that Comptroller. I will be the Comptroller who will scrutinize the details without losing sight of the big picture."

In 2001, Liu became the first Asian-American to hold public office in New York City.

His campaign website was temporarily down Sunday night, where a short note read, "We've taken a moment to update our website with the most recent news and developments from the campaign. Stay tuned to John Liu for NYC Comptroller!"

I really like John Liu. He's extremely bright, has built an extremely effective operation with a number of extremely talented and dedicated folks around him. He's going places. I fully expect him to be a Congressman, at the very least, one day.

Given the current field, including my own Councilman, David "Mr Squishy" Yassky, I am very bullish on Councilman Liu.

This race is going to be fun to watch.

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SD-11: It's Over

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 03, 2009 at 17:59:02 PM EST

The race in SD-11 is finally over. The current margin of 578 votes is too much to beat.

With all but 265 ballots fought over, counted and recounted, Republican Frank Padavan retains a 578-vote lead over his Democratic challenger, Councilman Jim Gennaro, according to a Queens GOP source who has been monitoring the situation.

That makes it arithmetically impossible for Gennaro to pull out a victory - even if those last remaining ballots all cut his way, which, of course, they wouldn't.

This was always going to be a tough race for Jim Gennaro, but he worked his tail off. Few people believed that it would ever be this close.

Well done, Mr Gennaro.

And congratulations, Senator Padavan. Hope you have a ball in the minority.

See ya next year.

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SD-11: The Beginning Of The End

by: phillip anderson

Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 17:02:16 PM EST

Could the race in SD-11 finally be coming to an end?

City Board of Elections commissioners voted unanimously today to reserve their December decision and allow disputed paper ballots to be counted in the yet-undecided 11th SD race, signaling the beginning of the end of what has been an extremely contentious and drawn-out process.

Depending on how long the count takes - and there have been conflicting reports as to exactly how many ballots are out there, but it's somewhere between 1,700 and 2,700 - this contest could be a contender for the title of longest-running undecided legislative race in modern history.

...

Republican Frank Padavan, who was the incumbent GOP senator when this whole mess started, has a lead of several hundred votes - perhaps as many as 500 - over his Democratic challenger, Councilman Jim Gennaro.

Obsevers and operatives on both sides of the aisle have been more or less in agreement (at least privately) that Padavan is going to be declared the winner.

Much like now ex-Senator Serph Maltese was a top Dem target in 2008, should these numbers hold, expect much attention be paid to Padavan in 2010.  

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SD-11: First They Came For The Latinos And Asians...

by: phillip anderson

Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 09:04:25 AM EST

...Then they came for the students.

In Contested State Senate Race, Subpoenas for Students to Verify Residences Draw Anger

The unresolved State Senate contest between Senator Frank Padavan, a Republican, and his Democratic challenger, James F. Gennaro, moves on Tuesday into a Queens courtroom, where nearly a dozen college students have been subpoenaed to verify their residences.

Republican lawyers have challenged the votes of students, mostly from St. John's University, saying that they filled out affidavit ballots with addresses that were not their permanent residences. In the paper ballot count, Mr. Padavan is leading by about 600 votes, but about 1,000 more ballots remained to be counted and the validity of an additional 2,000 must still be reviewed.

While the challenges and subpoenas have angered students, who are being forced to appear during exams, they underscore the high stakes attached to winning the Senate seat in Queens...

What makes this turn of events all the more ridiculous, is that college students can absolutely register and vote from their college addresses. Period. What a great way to treat those first time voters, right? Let's drag their asses into court during exams simply for exercising their right to vote.

Steven H. Richman, the general counsel at the New York City Board of Elections, said that under state law, a student can vote from a polling place near either his or her permanent address or a college address.

"A college student has the option," Mr. Richman said. "If you're living on campus, you have the right to register and vote from that district. Or you can register from your parents' address. You just can't vote in two places."

Democratic officials said they were incensed by the subpoenas. "It's outrageous that this is the lesson that Republicans want to teach young voters," said, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "They are teaching students that they can be dragged into court just for fulfilling their civic duty. It's absolutely outrageous."

...

Cristina Fernandez, a student at St. John's, said by phone that it was more convenient to vote near the school. "Even though my parents live in Manhattan, I live right here in Queens and didn't see any reason to vote back in Manhattan when I could register to vote right here in the neighborhood," said Ms. Fernandez, a senior majoring in accounting.

"I was so excited to vote this year," she added. "But then I had some man showing up on my doorstep issuing me a subpoena because the Republicans are trying to challenge my vote. So, I have to go to court in the middle of finals, instead of studying. It makes you not want to vote ever again."

Stay classy, Republicans.

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

SD-11: Recount Cuts Padavan's Lead To Just 502 Votes

by: phillip anderson

Wed Nov 12, 2008 at 18:55:11 PM EST

Keep your eye on this one, folks. Liz is reporting that today's machine recount in the SD-11 race cut Frank Padavan's lead from 723 to just 502 votes. And there is still the matter of over 8,000 paper ballots yet to be counted:

Today's machine recount in the 11th SD is complete and GOP Sen. Frank Padavan's lead over Democratic Councilman Jim Gennaro has shrunk from an already-close 723 votes to 502.
There remain 8,300 paper ballots yet to be counted, a good number of which are likely to be disqualified, as is fairly standard.
Democratic political consultant Evan Stavisky, who worked on Gennaro's campaign, touted the fact that his candidate "closed the gap significantly," adding: "We're confident, and we always have been, that the paper ballot will put Jim over the top."

500 votes is not an insignificant hurdle to be overcome, but it is certainly doable. One thing is for certain though. If Gennaro pulls this off, he definitely won't be joining any "gangs" of petulant children with their hands out.  

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BREAKING: New Siena Polls Are Out: Foley Trouncing Trunzo, Stach Is Back

by: phillip anderson

Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:52:38 AM EST

The new Siena Polls are hot off the presses an things look pretty good for Dems across the state. In fact, if these numbers are correct and the election wre held today, the GOP would lose it's Senate majority.

The biggest numbers to pop out is the lead Brian Foley has over Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) and the huge comeback by incumbent Dem Bill Stachowski. Foley leads Trunzo by a whopping 22 points and Stachowski has turned a 13 point deficit into a 4 point lead.

A rundown:

3rd SD - Suffolk County - Caesar Trunzo (R, incumbent) vs. Brian Foley (D)

Foley has a 56-34 percent lead over Trunzo. Trunzo led 46-40 percent in the previous Siena New York Poll. While Foley has picked up a little more support among Democrats, he has cut Trunzo's lead among Republican voters to 53-39 percent, down dramatically from 71-16 percent. Additionally, Foley has opened up a 63-27 percent lead among independent voters, up from 43-40 percent previously.

Foley has expanded a two-point lead in Brookhaven to a 12-point lead, and reversed 12-point deficit in Islip and turned it into 30-point lead. Where Trunzo had a nine-point lead among voters 55-years of age and older, Foley now leads with those voters 52-40 percent. Foley leads by 13 points with men and 30 points with women. The only demographic group in which Trunzo leads is among Republicans.

If Foley leads by even 10 points in Trunzo's Islip backyard, this thing is over. The poll shows a 30 point lead. And before the GOoPs start screaming about the poll sample, look at the Obama/McCain numbers. They are essentially dead even. It's not like they are only polling Dems.

6th SD - Nassau County - Kemp Hannon (R, incumbent) vs. Kristen McElroy (D)

Hannon has a commanding 56-30 percent lead, in a district that is virtually evenly enrolled between Republicans and Democrats. Hannon has the support of 80 percent of Republicans and picks up the support of nearly one-third of Democrats. McElroy only wins among Democrats 55-32 percent, while only attracting support from 10 percent of Republicans. Hannon leads among independent voters 56-21 percent.

McElroy leads among young voters and those in the Council District 1 section of the Hempstead portion of the Senate district. However, Hannon has much bigger leads in the remainder of the district and has better than 60 percent among voters who are at least 35-years old.

Ouch. Got some work to do here.

15th SD - Queens County - Serph Maltese (R, incumbent) vs. Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D)

Addabbo currently has a slim 45-43 percent lead over Maltese. In the September Siena poll, the two were tied at 42 percent, in this district that has an overwhelmingly Democratic enrollment edge. Maltese has the support of more than three-quarters of Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats. Addabbo leads 61-27 percent among Democrats and picks up the support of 20 percent of Republicans. Maltese leads among independent voters 51-31 percent. Maltese leads by four points with men, while Addabbo has a seven-point lead with women. Addabbo leads in the southern part of the district and Maltese leads in the north.

Maltese is viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 33 percent of voters, down from a 48-16 percent favorable rating previously. Addabbo's favorable rating is 42-30 percent, and was previously 38-20 percent.

Obama leads McCain in this district 57-32 percent, up from 49-31 percent.

Maltese is deep doo doo here. Throw him an anvil.

48th SD - Oswego/Jefferson/St. Lawrence - Darrel Aubertine (D, incumbent) vs. David Renzi (R)

Aubertine, who had a 51-31 percent lead over Renzi in the last poll, has seen that lead drop to 49-38 percent. Aubertine has the support of nearly three-quarters of Democrats and more than one-third of Republicans in this district with a heavy Republican enrollment edge. Renzi leads 57-35 percent with Republicans, up from 41-37 percent previously, and only gets 13 percent of Democrats. Aubertine is winning among independent voters 49-34 percent, up from 41-37 percent previously. While Renzi has erased a 20-point Aubertine lead in Oswego County, and now leads there 44-37 percent, Aubertine has widened his leads in Jefferson (25 points, up from 16) and St. Lawrence (30 points, up from 27) Counties.

Aubertine is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 31 percent of voters, down from 58-21 percent previously. Renzi has a 40-35 percent favorability rating; previously it was 34-15 percent.

Aubertine is going to fine.

58th SD - Erie County - William Stachowski (D, incumbent) vs. Dennis Delano (R)

Stachowski now has a 47-43 percent lead over Delano, after trailing 49-36 percent in the previous Siena poll in this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge. Stachowski has increased his lead among Democrats to 62-30 percent (up from 51-34 percent). Delano maintains a 63-25 percent lead among Republicans (virtually unchanged from 64-23 percent) and has seen his lead among independent voters fall to 54-36 percent, down from 67-19 percent.

Whereas Delano led in all three sections of the district previously, Stachowski now leads 47-37 percent in Buffalo/Lackawanna, 48-45 percent in Cheektowaga, and 47-44 percent in the southern suburbs. Stachowski has a 12-point lead with men, while Delano has a two-point lead with women. Delano has a significant lead with Protestants. Stachowski leads with Catholics, and has a big lead among younger voters.

Stachowski has a 50-31 percent favorable rating. It had been 39-14 percent. Delano's favorable rating, 53-33 percent, is down from 63-15 percent. Delano continues to have a positive favorable rating with voters of every party, while Stachowski has increased his favorability among Democrats but lost ground with independent voters and saw his favorability among Republicans drop from 35-12 percent to 29-50 percent.

More than half of voters would like to see the Senate controlled by Democrats, and Obama has opened 55-37 percent lead over McCain, up from 45-41 percent previously.

"Senator Stachowski has turned this race around. In four weeks he has erased a 13-point deficit and turned it into a tight four-point lead. Where Delano previously had a much better favorable rating with voters, the two are now viewed by voters in virtually the same light. We will have to wait until Election Day to see if Stachowski continues his momentum to win re-election, or if Delano can turn this race back around again and defeat a 27-year incumbent in this overwhelmingly Democratic district," Greenberg said.

Stach is back. That's what a comeback looks like. I guess the more folks learn about Delano, the less they like what they see. Also, this one of those races that an Obama wave could seriously affect. If that wave reaches Buffalo, Stachowski could end up blowing Delano right out of the water.

61st SD - Erie and Genesee Counties - Michael Ranzenhofer (R) vs. Joseph Mesi (D)

Ranzenhofer has a 47-42 percent lead over Mesi, who had a slimmer 40-38 percent lead in the previous Siena poll, in this district where Republicans have a very small enrollment edge over Democrats. Ranzenhofer leads among Republicans 69-25 percent, up from 59-21 percent. Mesi leads among Democrats 62-29 percent, closer than the previous 63-19 percent. Mesi leads among independent voters 42-37 percent, although Ranzenhofer closed the gap from 43-28 percent. Mesi leads in Tonawanda by seven points (down from 10). Ranzenhofer leads in the Clarence/Newstead/Genesee County portions of the district by 15 points (up from two points), and in Amherst by three points (up a tick from two points).

Ranzenhofer has a 47-26 percent favorable rating, compared to 35-12 percent previously. Mesi's favorable rating is 46-37 percent, compared to 45-18 percent in the previous Siena poll.

While the race has shifted seven points from Mesi to Ranzenhofer, a reverse trend occurred on the question of who voters support to control the Senate. Previously, voters supported Republican control by a 44-38 percent margin, while now a slim plurality, 43-41 percent, support Democratic control. The presidential race also flipped, with McCain's 45-40 percent lead now becoming a 51-42 percent lead for Obama.

"This district is close in enrollment between Republicans and Democrats. The voters are close in their view on which party should control the Senate. The voters have switched their support from McCain to Obama over the last few weeks. And a small Mesi lead has turned into a slightly wider Ranzenhofer lead. Which party's voters turn out in larger numbers on Tuesday may well determine the outcome of this race. Either way, it figures to be a late night as the votes get counted in this race," Greenberg said.

This one may very well come down to Obama's GOTV operation as well. If his voters show in force, I think Mesi wins this thing. Mesi likes to remind folks that he is undefeated. If the Obama wave does indeed materialize in the manner that it appears to be, he'll be able to call himself undefeated still. Give him a hand.

Much more on these polls coming soon.

Discuss :: (9 Comments)

SD-15: El Diario For Addabbo

by: phillip anderson

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:40:11 AM EDT

The largest Spanish language paper in New York City, El Diario la Prensa, today endorses Joe Addabbo over Serph Maltese:

A vote for Addabbo

For too long, neighborhoods outside of our Manhattan-obsessed city have remained neglected. Councilman Joseph P. Addabbo Jr. recognizes the need for quality transportation and schools that serve families in Queens. We believe his experience and prioritizing of issues that affect the borough's older and emerging communities make him the right choice for representing District 15 in the New York State Senate.

Since 2002, Addabbo has served neighborhoods such as Richmond Hill, Woodhaven and Rockaway Beach in the City Council. He is challenging 19-year incumbent, Republican State Senator Serphin R. Maltese.

Maltese's district is 26 percent Latino, in a county with the largest diverse immigrant population in the nation. Yet Maltese's positions on a number of issues do not reflect the needs of many of our working families. For example, he voted against a state bill that allowed immigrant students to pay the same rate of in-state college tuition as citizen residents. Maltese is one of the state senators who has stood in the way of comprehensive sex education for teenagers.

In an editorial board meeting with El Diario/La Prensa, Addabbo said that he has encouraged the civic participation of immigrants. He is committed to using state resources to help small business owners. He believes that the state legislature should move forward with paid family leave legislation. Addabbo also wants to promote more transparency in state government-he calls for the creation of a nonpartisan independent budget office.

As a Councilman, Addabbo worked for years to budget and introduce a ferry service route from the Rockaways, and to improve bus service. He promises to follow through on his commitments to Queens and to rally for a city that sends more money to Albany than it receives.

On the web: Joe Addabbo for State Senate.

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SD-15: Schumer For Addabbo

by: phillip anderson

Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:26:52 AM EDT

Look out, Serph. Chuck is coming to town and he's got you in his sights.

Democrats bring in Chuck Schumer to help gain control of state Senate

Democrats are bringing in one of their biggest guns - U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer - to campaign in a race that could determine control of the state Senate.

Schumer will be in Queens within the next week to campaign for City Councilman Joseph Addabbo, who is challenging longtime Republican Sen. Serphin Maltese.

"Chuck Schumer is a legend in New York politics with a record of unseating incumbents," said Addabbo spokeswoman Alexis Grenell.

"As the man who unmade the Republican Congress, Sen. Schumer is no stranger to a fight, and the councilman is thrilled to have him in his court."

It's really great to see both of our US Senators engaging in the fight for the State Senate this year, something that doesn't happen often enough. So far, we've seen Hillary Clinton raising money for the Senate Dems and endorsing some of our best challengers and now we see Chuck out stumping with them as well. Sure, they would both like to claim a little credit for the coming defeat of the GOP majority, but they are also putting heir money where their mouths are. And it's not over yet. Other endangered republican incumbents should take notice:

In addition to stumping for Addabbo, Schumer plans to hit the trail over the next few weeks for a number of New York Democrats running for Congress, state Senate, Assembly and some local races, an aide said.

Well done, Senators Schumer and Clinton.

On the web: Joe Addabbo for State Senate.

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

SD-15: Serph Maltese Ally To Be Indicted For Fraud Today

by: phillip anderson

Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:43:27 AM EDT

It appears that Queens Assemblyman Anthony Seminerio, the biggest local Dem ally of Republican Senator Serph Maltese, was pulling a Joe Bruno by running a "consulting" firm out of his house that the feds believe crossed the line into criminality. Liz is reporting that the indictment(s) will be unsealed later today. She quotes a release from US Attorney Michael Garcia:

A press conference will be held today to announce the unsealing of a criminal complaint charging New York State Assemblyman Anthony Seminerio with honest services fraud relating to his alleged receipt of hundreds of thousands of dollars in corrupt payments from various entities with business before the State of New York.

Seminerio and Maltese are very tight and go way, way back. Liz notes:

NOTE: A reader points out that trouble for Seminerio, who has run in the past on both the Democrat and Conservative lines, won't be helpful to GOP Sen. Serphin Maltese, whose district overlaps with Seminerio's and who is a top target of the Democrats as they try to take over the Senate this fall.

Seminerio and Maltese have been close for many years, one Queens source called Seminerio "Serf's single most reliable Democratic supporter going back to when he was first elected."

AND, Seminerio is the second lawmaker close to Maltese who has been indicted in recent months (the first being his former aide and now-ex councilman, Dennis Gallagher, who pleaded guilty to sexual misconduct charges and gave up his seat as a result).

Things are already tough for Maltese. This isn't helping.

On the web: Joe Addabbo at ActBlue.

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

SD-15: Baldeo Dropping Out, Will Endorse Addabbo

by: phillip anderson

Fri Aug 22, 2008 at 11:08:04 AM EDT

This real bad news for GOP incumbent Serph Maltese. The man who almost beat him in 2006 and was threating to run a third party (his own "Hope and Change" party) campaign if he lost the Dem primary with City Councilman Joe Addabbo, is dropping out of the race According to Liz:

Democratic sources confirm Albert Baldeo, who came within some 800 votes of ousting veteran Republican Sen. Serphin Maltese in 2006, will throw his support to the Democratic establishment candidate, Councilman Joe Addabbo, this afternoon and stop campaigning.

Techincally speaking, Baldeo can't officially drop out of the race since it's too late to remove his name from the primary ballot.

The formal announcement will be made at 3 p.m. at Baldeo's law offices on Liberty Avenue. Also expected to attend are Addabbo, Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith, Rep. Greg Meeks and Queens Democratic Chairman Joe Crowley.

This is not good news for Maltese, who is one of the Democrats' top targets as they try to take control of the Senate from the GOP this fall. Baldeo had threatened to remain in the general election on a third party line, which could have made a difference in a contest that's expected to be very close.

This is huge news. Maltese was in real, genuine trouble before this news. Now, he's gonna need all the help that Skelos can give him. This is an existential fight for the guy.

It won't be easy by any stretch of the imagination, but this one looks to be a pickup, folks.

More soon.

On the web: Joe Addabbo at ActBlue.

Discuss :: (4 Comments)

SD-15: Quid Pro Serph?

by: phillip anderson

Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 10:40:53 AM EDT

On Friday I posted about the taxpayer funded campaign literature contituent outreach mailers that Serph Maltese is carpet bombing the 15th SD with. Today we learn that Maltese is once again campaigning with YOUR money and is depending on folks from the many groups in the district that "he" claims to fund to save his seat.

Maltese has not gotten a similar influx of GOP campaign guns, but he said he will instead draw on paid consultants and volunteers from the 227 groups he funds with grants.

He bristled at the notion that he is the most vulnerable GOP senator.

"That puts me in a very good position to secure funding from not only the Senate, but many of the groups that I have been helping in the past," he said.

First, let's disabuse Senator Maltese of the notion that he "funds" anything. He doesn't. WE do. I, for one, am pretty damn tired of pols putting their names all over stuff and then telling us that these things exist solely through their largesse. That's just ridiculous. Please stop.

Secondly, did Maltese really just say what I think he said? Did he really just say that he is depending on volunteers from organizations that he steers our money to all the while claiming credit? I mean, I'm not naive. I know that this is how many of these guys think and that it's also the way many of these orgs think. This is that magic time, the time that arrives every two years where incumbents stomp around their districts handing out truckloads of other people's money as if it were their own. But, I don't know that I've ever seen a pol actually come right out and say in black and white that those folks, the ones receiving all that public money, owe him or that he is depending on them to hit the streets on his behalf or, to be as blunt as Senator Maltese, give some of that money back to him. Read that again:

"That puts me in a very good position to secure funding from not only the Senate, but many of the groups that I have been helping in the past," he said.

Isn't that pretty much a presumption of a quid pro quo? We all know that these guys see your money as means to buy the support of voters. I've just never seen a politician state it so explicitly.

On the web: Joe Addabbo at ActBlue.

Discuss :: (3 Comments)

SD-15: Serph Maltese Is Campaigning With YOUR Money

by: phillip anderson

Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:20:49 PM EDT

What does this look like to you?

If you answered "campaign mailer", please step to the head of the class. Then take a look at who paid for it.

US Postage
PAID
New York Senate

That's right. YOU paid for it.

Much more including more images on the flip...

There's More... :: (5 Comments, 103 words in story)

SD-13: SEIU Backs Monserrate

by: phillip anderson

Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 15:52:39 PM EDT

Uncle Joe's pals at SEIU/1199 have endorsed Hiram Monserrate, the City Councilman running to replace John Sabini in SD-13. From an emailed press release:

1199 SEIU ENDORSES COUNCIL MEMBER HIRAM MONSERRATE FOR STATE SENATE

Union Backs Monserrate In His Bid For The 13th State Senate District

(New York, NY) 1199 SEIU United Healthcare Workers East today announced their endorsement of Democratic candidate Hiram Monserrate in the September primary for the 13th State Senate district. Monserrate is making his 2nd bid for the Senate seat currently held by Senator John Sabini.

Monserrate's public service in the City Council and his long history of working to improve police and community relations exemplify the kind of dedication and resolve needed to serve as an elected leader in Albany.

"1199 is proud to endorse Hiram Monserrate for State Senate. As a Council Member, community activist and lifelong Queens resident, Hiram has first-hand knowledge and experience in advocating for the needs of the community," said George Gresham, President of 1199 SEIU United Healthcare Workers East. "He has worked tirelessly to improve the lives of working families in his district. Hiram's leadership on immigration and living wage legislation demonstrate his deep commitment to progressive values and we're confident he'll continue to fight for issues critical to working families."

1199 SEIU plans to direct mail, phone-bank and go door-to-door to its thousands of members and retirees in the 13th Senate district.

"I am proud to receive the support of 1199 in my candidacy for the New York State Senate," said Council Member Monserrate. "I am pleased to receive the support of an organization that represents workers providing care for the most vulnerable members of our society. 1199 has historically challenged our state to tackle the most pressing issues confronting the State of New York and I look forward to working with them in the State Senate."

Does this mean that SEIU is breaking up with longtime BFF Joe Bruno? Doubtful. I'll start paying attention when they endorse a Dem state Senate challenger to a GOP incumbent. Though that may not be entirely beyond the bounds of the possible, I'm not exactly holding my breath.

Discuss :: (0 Comments)
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