NY-Sen: Sen. Bob Menendez On Israel's Decision Not To Run

by: robert.harding

Sat May 16, 2009 at 10:11:19 AM EDT

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, issued this statement yesterday about Israel's decision.

"Steve Israel is a terrific Congressman, and the people of Long Island are lucky to have him as their fierce advocate in Washington. New Yorkers have one of the strongest Congressional delegations in the country and clearly Senator Gillibrand is making them proud as their new Senator. She's working around the clock, traveling the state, delivering for New York, and given her strong track record thus far, looks to be well-positioned for 2010. The DSCC looks forward to continuing working with her to make sure she well-prepared for her race."

After hearing similar praise of Israel over the last few days and ever since I first met Israel in January 2008, it is hard to disagree with those who say that he is, as Menendez puts it, a "fierce advocate." Israel is definitely that and he is willing to help anyone in New York, whether they live in his district or not. The 2nd congressional district is very fortunate to have Congressman Israel representing them.

But there are plenty of interesting tidbits in that statement from Menendez that pertains to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who benefited greatly from Israel deciding not to run yesterday. Sen. Menendez saying that Gillibrand is "well-positioned for 2010" and that the DSCC "looks forward to continuing working with her" shows that the DSCC might be hoping to avoid a primary.

It also helps that Sen. Chuck Schumer, who used to chair the DSCC, has been advocating for Gillibrand. Endorsements like that will help Gillibrand and could help avoid a primary that might be costly to the Democrats next year.

NY-Sen: Israel Decides Not To Run; Says President Obama Urged Him Not To

by: robert.harding

Fri May 15, 2009 at 18:31:06 PM EDT

Thanks to President Barack Obama, Congressman Israel has decided not to primary Sen. Gillibrand and instead continue the work he is doing in the House of Representatives, which includes the key role he plays with the DCCC.

In a statement, Congressman Israel says that he will "never stop fighting for Long Island and all of New York" while acknowledging the role President Obama played in getting Israel to change his mind.

I spoke with President Obama today. He asked me that I not run for the U.S. Senate this year. The President asked me to continue my leadership in Congress, working closely with him to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and create new jobs through an intensified focus on renewable energy and green technology. This is a tough, heartfelt decision for me. I have received encouragement to pursue this fight from all corners of our great state. But in the interest of providing New York and our country with a united front for progressive change, I have decided to continue my efforts in Congress and not pursue a campaign for the U.S. Senate. I want to thank Senator Schumer for his friendship and guidance during this process, and I am especially grateful for the support of my friends and family. I'll never stop fighting for Long Island and all of New York.

This is huge news today because it means that one of Gillibrand's serious challengers is no longer a challenger. There are only a couple of other serious contenders left, including Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.

There are several reasons why Gillibrand will be a formidable foe. One of them is money. But another reason is that, while she does have upstate ties, she also has plenty of downstate ties. She has been able to bridge the gap throughout her career. There is no reason why she won't be able to do that now.

I saw Israel as the biggest threat to Gillibrand. Now with Israel out of the race, I see a clear path to victory for Gillibrand in 2010. I can't see Stringer raising his profile that much over the next 16 months. I can't see Maloney doing what Israel did, which was appeal to upstate and rural voters and show that he genuinely cares about them.

NY-Sen: A Look At The Gillibrand-Israel Primary For U.S. Senate

by: robert.harding

Wed May 13, 2009 at 07:45:01 AM EDT

I doubt that this race will be between only Gillibrand and Israel. I suspect that at least one more person, possibly Rep. Carolyn Maloney, will be a candidate in this race. I don't see either candidate being able to have an ideal primary, which would be more of a one-on-one contest.

A lot has been said about both candidates. Supporters of Gillibrand say that while she represented the 20th congressional district, a very red district in New York, she had to move to the middle on a lot of issues to put herself in line with most of the district. Now that she is able to represent the whole state, she has been given some wiggle room and can now display her progressive credentials.

Opponents of Gillibrand don't believe such an argument. They question her views on issues, including a few social issues, and wonder if she is truly moving to the left.

This is an interesting primary because it features two former Blue Dog Democrats. Gillibrand was a Blue Dog while in the House and Israel also was a member of the Blue Dog Coalition until he left some time last year. That move could be seen as posturing by Israel, who knows that being a Blue Dog doesn't sit well with many progressives.

So how do the two fare against one another? After reviewing their respective interest group ratings from Project Vote Smart (Senator Gillibrand's interest group ratings and Congressman Israel's interest group ratings), here is what can be said:

- Both candidates are pro-choice. Both received 100 percent ratings from NARAL Pro-Choice America and Planned Parenthood.

- Gillibrand is better when it comes to agricultural issues, which is an important issue in upstate New York. Gillibrand received a 100 percent rating from the National Farmers Union, a 93 percent rating from the National Association of Wheat Growers and a 100 percent rating from the United Fresh Produce Association. While Israel also got a 100 percent rating from the United Fresh Produce Association, he only received an 87 percent score from the National Farmers Union and an 80 percent rating from the National Association of Wheat Growers.

It should also be mentioned that in his 2004 Political Courage Test provided by Project Vote Smart, Congressman Israel said that he would "greatly decrease" the agriculture portion of the budget.

- Israel did better in the civil rights and liberties category, receiving perfect scores from the ACLU and Human Rights Campaign. Gillibrand did receive a perfect score in the past from the ACLU, but received a 90 percent in 2007-08 and also received a 80 percent grade from the Human Rights Campaign.

- Which candidate is more conservative? Their American Conservative Union scores might be a strong indicator.

In 2008, Gillibrand received a 23 percent rating from the American Conservative Union, while Israel received a 0 percent rating. In addition, the John Birch Society gave Gillibrand a 30 percent score while awarding Israel with a 13 percent score.

- Gillibrand and Israel are fairly equal in terms of labor support. Both have received high scores from unions like the AFL-CIO throughout their careers.

- How liberal are the candidates? There are two scores that are worth noting. Americans for Democratic Action gave Gillibrand a 95 percent score while giving Israel a 85 percent rating. Progressive Patriots, however, gave Israel an 80 percent score while giving Gillibrand a 60 percent rating.

There are many issues that we could compare and contrast. There are a lot of similarities between Gillibrand and Israel, which makes for a tough decision. If there are only small differences, how can you vote against Gillibrand who has proved her worth as a U.S. senator? Gillibrand's profile is in increasing and the people I know who have encountered her come away with a positive impression. The same can be said for Israel, who has been making the rounds in upstate New York for some time now.

We can debate which one is more conservative or who is more liberal, but really the question should be who is better for New York? Is it Gillibrand? Or is it Israel? Or is it someone else who is waiting to announce their candidacy?

This is going to be an interesting primary to watch. It will be one of the most watched races throughout the country because whoever wins this primary will more than likely be the U.S. senator from New York.