Given the rather nasty little civil war amongst the local GOP in the 3rd, this development can't be sitting well with the pro-Caesar crowd. From an emailed release:
Republicans See their Future with Foley
"Republicans for Foley" campaign to take back Albany from special interests
Farmingville, NY - More and more Republicans are supporting Brian X. Foley in his effort to unseat 36-year incumbent senator Caesar Trunzo. The Foley for Senate campaign announced the formation of "Republicans for Foley," a group of voters and grass-roots activists who will work to elect Brian X. Foley.
Like the rest of the electorate, Foley's message of putting working families' interests over special interests is resonating with registered Republicans. Voters see Foley as a fiscal conservative who has a record of cutting taxes and strengthening our middle-class.
"As a lifelong Republican, I am proud to support Brian X. Foley for Senate because I know he will stand up for me and my family," said Ken Chebat, of Patchogue.
When it comes to fighting for working families, there is a clear contrast between Brian X. Foley and Caesar Trunzo. While Foley has stood up for the middle-class, Trunzo has supported increasing tax breaks for Wall Street banks.
Trunzo has crowned himself the king of pork-barrel spending and even boasts about using his member-item slush fund as a way to buy votes. On the Senate floor, Trunzo voted against expanding mammography services and cervical cancer screenings for women, despite Long Island having the highest rate of breast cancer in the country.
As Foley cut taxes on residents in Brookhaven, Trunzo went on a tax binge in the State Senate, voting for 611 separate increases in taxes and fees on working families. In total, Trunzo is responsible for $33.4 billion in tax and fee increases. He's voted on increasing taxes on everything from bike helmets to baby diapers to smoke detectors.
"I'm supporting Brian X. Foley because we need someone in the Senate to work for ordinary people, not special interests," said Jack Geoghan, a Republican voter from Davis Park. "Foley has a record of fighting for the middle-class. We need his strong leadership and smart economic policies in Albany."
Foley, a lifelong resident of Brookhaven, has spent the past 15 years working on behalf of those in his community both as a member of the Suffolk County Legislature and in his current position as Brookhaven Supervisor. He will bring to Albany a proven record of fighting for working families and taking on and defeating special interests.
"We are thrilled with the depth of support Brian X. Foley enjoys from a broad base of voters, including Republicans," said Ibrahim Khan, Communications Director for Foley for Senate. "Supervisor Foley has a record of fiscal responsibility and cutting taxes, a sharp contrast from Senator Trunzo's failed economic policies that have brought us the worst crisis since the Great Depression."
Republicans for Foley will actively campaign in the 3rd Senate District to persuade Republicans, Democrats and independents to support Foley. Their efforts will be particularly helpful with GOP supporters since one out of four Republicans already oppose Trunzo's reelection, according to a recent Siena poll. Instead, voters want Brian X. Foley to bring the same integrity and common-sense approach to politics that he used to turnaround Brookhaven.
New York Senator Calls Foley "a champion of working families and the change we need"
West Sayville, NY - Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton endorsed Brian X. Foley today for State Senate in his race against 36-year incumbent Caesar Trunzo. The endorsement by Clinton, a longtime fighter for working families and a star of the Democratic Party, is a major boost to Foley's campaign and adds to his ever growing support and momentum. Senator Clinton has inspired millions of voters across the nation with the strength of her vision for change, and her advocacy on behalf of middle-class families struggling from years of failed economic policies.
"We need Brian X. Foley in Albany fighting for all of us. He is a champion of working families and represents the change we need," stated Senator Clinton. "We need his record of innovative solutions and proven leadership. This year, it's important that we send new Democratic leaders to the State House. I am confident that Brian will be such a leader."
In just two years as the Brookhaven Town Supervisor, Brian X. Foley cut a $15 million deficit, got the town its highest bond rating ever, and saved taxpayers $10 million through innovative economic policies. Because of his hard work, Brookhaven now has the lowest town tax rate in Suffolk County and is the only Town in Long Island to hold the line on taxes this year.
"Foley knows how to roll up his sleeves and start making government work for people again. He turned around a notoriously corrupt town government, putting it in its best fiscal position in decades and restoring voters' faith in Brookhaven Town Hall. The New York State Senate urgently needs Brian's voice of reason and fiscal responsibility. I enthusiastically endorse Brian X. Foley," added Senator Clinton.
Foley thanked Sen. Clinton. "I am deeply honored to receive Senator Clinton's endorsement. I believe that together, we can bring change to Albany - change that will make a real difference in the lives of working families."
The numbers are staggering: In Suffolk County, as of August, there were 8,055 homes in foreclosure or at risk of foreclosure. Of these, 5,088 were 30 days past due to lenders. Statewide, up to 150,000 homes could be lost to foreclosure.
In Caesar Trunzo's fief, the Third Senatorial District, the numbers indicate real and growing pain. Brentwood has 526 loans in foreclosure and Central Islip has 433 loans in foreclosure. Yes, that's almost a thousand homes in just two towns. Now, think about what that means: that's a thousand families - more, no doubt, because the district is larger than just these two municipalities - on the verge of eviction; several thousand more of their neighbors whose home values are going to be negatively impacted by empty properties next door or down the street (the Empire Justice Center estimates value lost to neighboring houses at $18,000); declining property tax revenues to local authorities just as the demands on them rise; in short, a witches brew of negative effects on entire communities.
In that context, it's fair to ask why Caesar Trunzo and Senate republicans voted against a one year foreclosure moratorium that easily passed the Assembly. Trunzo's vote is especially unforgivable among his peers, and here's why: his district is the hardest-hit Senatorial district in the state. There are other areas being devastated by the foreclosure crisis - Queens, Kings, Nassau, Monroe, Erie, to name a few - but in Suffolk, the pain is greatest.
And Caesar Trunzo walked away from providing relief. Think it's time for a change?
One of the sleeper issues during this election season should be (or will be) home heating costs. Home heating costs are on the rise and it has citizens, candidates and incumbents talking about ways to address the problem. Brian Foley is no exception.
Today at a press conference, Foley addressed the home heating problem and called for assistance to help families who will struggle with home heating costs this winter.
Supervisor Brian X. Foley, who is running against 36-year incumbent Caesar Trunzo, has laid out a comprehensive plan that calls for providing immediate relief to homeowners and creating new, green jobs through weatherization and other energy saving measures.
"We can't sit by and watch while Long Islanders struggle just to stay warm," said Foley. "Unfortunately, Caesar Trunzo's failed leadership in the Senate has let us down. Thanks to his disregard for the struggling middle-class, we are left with out-of-control heating costs and an energy system that's clearly broken," said Foley.
Under the plan supported by Foley, working families will get direct relief in the form of hundreds of dollars in aid. In addition, homeowners will received help in weatherizing their homes, which will not only save them as much as 40% on their energy bills, it will also create thousands of new, green jobs.
The plan will NOT be paid for by any new taxes. Instead, it will be funded through the combination of revenues from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiatives (RGGI) and tax-free state bonds.
Again, this is a big issue that needs to be talked about more. Coming from a rural area, I know how important this issue is and I know that it is one of those topics that needs to be talked about.
Foley wants to address the problem. How does Sen. Caesar Trunzo address the problem of home heating costs?
SD-3 challenger and Brookhaven Town Supervisor Brian X. Foley is out with a new TV ad that takes it to Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) on a few counts. Before Foley's arrival on the scene in Brookhaven, the city was known for the corruption of its Republican ruling regime and had earned the nickname "Crookhaven." That culture of corruption was enabled and heartily supported for decades by one Caesar Trunzo. It's about time someone started calling him out on it. Check it out:
The taglines to Caesar Trunzo's camapign materials try to potray him as a "fighter" who is "fighting for us" or who is "leading the charge" against this or that. One piece of (taxpayer funded, of course) Trunzo mail I saw when I was out in the district actually showed (I'm not making this up) a boxing gloved hand punching a gas pump. Really. "Caesar Trunzo is knocking out high gas prices" or some such nonsense.
So, we are lead to believe that Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) is out there fighting for us. He's leading the charge, etc.
But, here's a fact that would seem to counter all that. The man hasn't uttered a single word into the record on the floor of the Senate since June of 2006. Nothing. Nada. Not a peep.
That's a Stone. Cold. Fact.
It's got to be pretty hard to be fighting for this and that or defending us from whatever when he hasn't even spoken a single word in that chamber in over two years.
Look, times are tough. The good people of the 3rd SD are hurting. Isn't it about time they were represented by someone who is actually willing and able to speak up on their behalf? Someone who will indeed fight for them?
Liz has posted a photo and some "grassroots tallies" from Caesar Trunzo's handlers that are supposed to show that Caesar Trunzo (R-FL)is actually waging a campaign. The photo itself is unremarkable and it's been on his spectacularly awful campaign site for months. To be perfectly honest, I'm not even sure it is from this cycle. The tallies are somewhat suspect as well, especially the last stat provided:
Average number of events attended by Senator Trunzo on a nightly basis: 3
Um, bull.
Do they really want to go with this? First, if your candidate is able to make 3 events a night, why can't he spare an evening to debate his opponent? Doesn't it strike you as just a little bit disrespectful of the voters that you can be all over the place raising money but you can't actually grant the voters a chance to hear your views on issues of great concern to them, especially given the news of the last few weeks?
Second, if he really is doing 3 events a night, where the hell are they? I assume most are in private homes and they would be fundraisers. Why isn't Caesar being seen in public far more often?
I'm just not buying this.
UPDATE: I'm told that the News12 debate between Foley and Trunzo is today. Will they actually produce him? What would be worse - ducking the debate or putting him on camera for an hour?
Good news. Governor Paterson, who will be joining us later today at 4pm, has just announced his endorsement of Brookhaven Town Supervisor Brian X. Foley in SD-3. From an emailed release:
Governor Paterson Endorses Brian X. Foley for State Senate
Patchogue, NY - Governor Paterson, who has been a leading proponent of proactive leadership and fiscal responsibility during these uncertain times, endorsed Brian X. Foley for State Senate in his race against 36-year incumbent Caesar Trunzo. The endorsement is a clear message that drastic change and fiscal responsibility is urgently needed in the State Senate.
"I am proud to be supporting Brian X. Foley for Senate because he shares my values for New York State's future," Governor Paterson said. "In these uncertain times, we need Brian's strong leadership to confront issues like rising property taxes, out of control energy costs, and spiking healthcare premiums. I look forward to working with him to bring the same integrity and common sense approach to Albany that he used to turn around Brookhaven and deliver millions of dollars in tax relief to its residents."
Foley thanked Governor Paterson. "I am deeply honored to receive Governor Paterson's endorsement. The time has come to set aside the broken policies of the past and bring in new leadership that answers to the people first, not corporations or Wall Street."
SD-3 challenger Brian X. Foley has released his second TV spot today and it pulls no punches. The ad goes right after Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) and his decades long enabling of the Wizards of Wall St that have driven our economy off a cliff. It is titled "Bull" and it is very, very good.
Brian Foley was joined by over 50 members of four local unions yesterday for door-to-door canvassing in Brookhaven. The campaign has received a huge push from organized labor over the last week thanks to seven endorsements of Foley by local unions.
This Saturday, September 27th, over 50 members from four unions amassed in Brookhaven to walk door to door with Brian X. Foley, talking to voters about Foley's record of changing government and fighting for the working families of Suffolk County. Members of CWA Locals 1104 and 1108, SEIU Local 32BJ, and RWDSU volunteered their Saturday afternoon to join together and walk in the Shirley and Mastic Beach neighborhoods.
"We're proud to walk with Brian X. Foley today, because working people in Brookhaven and Islip deserve more than they're getting thanks to Caesar Trunzo's 36 years of failed economic policies," said Anthony Eramo, CWA Local 1104 Shop Steward. "Trunzo has been in the pocket of special interests for far too long. He's in Albany working for the HMOs and lobbyists; not for the people of this District. We're dedicated to a strong future for middle-class families on Long Island - that's why we're for Brian."
The first labor walk follows on the heels of an exciting week for the Foley campaign. Foley was endorsed this week by seven labor unions. CWA District 1, CWA Local 1108, UFCW Local 1500, RWDSU, UAW Region 9A, SEIU 32BJ, and New York Hotel and Motel Trades Council all threw their support behind Brian X. Foley's campaign. This powerful show of support from labor unions illustrates the strength of Foley's appeal to working families and the momentum of his campaign in Islip and Brookhaven.
In addition a recent public poll by the Siena Research Institute showed that Foley and 36 year incumbent Caesar Trunzo are in a statistical dead heat going into the final 5 weeks of the campaign. This was just the first of three labor walks for Foley. Members will also join Foley to walk the District in October and on Election Day weekend.
"I am honored to be joined by our friends from labor as we go door to door talking to voters about the change we'll bring to Albany," said Foley. Our Coalition for Change is passionate about ending Senator Trunzo's failed policies as part of the Albany status quo. Together, we will win this election and bring the same integrity and common sense approach to government that we used to turn Brookhaven around."
This will be important for Foley moving forward. He is running against a candidate who can't even appear in his own TV ads yet seems to have some level of support remaining in the district. Having unions hit the streets on his behalf will be important for Foley heading into the last month of the campaign.
While Brian Foley appears in his own ads, Foley's Republican opponent Sen. Caesar Trunzo is apparently employing a strategy of staying out of his.
You might remember Trunzo's ad from last month, which is very similar to the one he has unveiled today. The ad in August featured nothing but Trunzo supporters talking about how great Sen. Trunzo was and what he supposedly has done or will do for the community. The new ad is much of the same.
If I were a voter in the 3rd Senate District, I would have to really consider my options here. You have a more youthful candidate who is qualified and ready to lead going up against a candidate who is 82 years old and can't even appear in his own TV ads.
I don't know how Caesar Trunzo could even be called a viable option. If he can't even be shown on camera in his own TV ads, what makes you think he can lead?
SD-3 Challenger Brian X. Foley has launched his first TV spot of the cycle and it's a good one. It's an introductory ad and its tone is mostly positive overall. It also makes a change argument by contrasting the past with the promise of the future. From an emailed release:
The Foley for Senate campaign launched its first TV ad today, a day after a public poll by the Siena Research Institute showed that Brian X. Foley and 36 year incumbent Caesar Trunzo are in a statistical dead heat going into the final 5 weeks of the campaign.
"After 36 years of skyrocketing property taxes, the failed economic policies of the Albany status quo, and a relentless negative campaign that included three commercials and countless glossy mailings, the Trunzo campaign has failed to convince voters that he deserves another two years in Albany," stated Ibrahim Khan, Communications Director for the Foley campaign. "Now voters will hear our message of integrity, proven results, and change for a brighter future."
The ad portrays voters at a voting booth. The narrator starts speaking as voters close the curtains and step into the booth:
"It's pretty simple. This year when you enter the voting booth, you can vote for the way things have been for 36 years, or vote for the way things can be. Brian Foley will fight for lower property taxes and clean government. As Brookhaven Town Supervisor, he eliminated a $15 million debt, saving taxpayers millions and banned second-hand smoke to protect our kids. Now, it's up to you. You can vote for the past or you can vote for your future. Choose wisely. Brian Foley for Senate."
The 30-second ad points out a stark contrast between Trunzo and Foley. Trunzo, a poster child for special interests and member of the Albany status quo for almost four decades, represents the past. Foley, who used innovative approaches to turn around Brookhaven by cutting taxes and helping move working families forward, is the future.
The commercial will play on cable stations starting Friday across Islip and Brookhaven and has been described as a "robust" buy by Communications Director Ibrahim Khan.
"With the Siena Poll showing Trunzo and Foley neck and neck and the massive support of organized labor for Foley this week, we clearly see momentum swinging towards our campaign for change," said Khan. "This commercial launch ends a great week for Brian Foley, middle-class families, and seniors looking towards the future and turning the page on 36 years of failed policies."
I think it's a pretty strong first effort. Check it out:
The Siena polls released today have created quite the buzz. No one said this New York State Senate fight would be easy, but it certainly is quite intriguing. These polls showed that these races are going to be very competitive in some places and not-so competitive in others.
But how seriously should we take these polls? Let's use this disclaimer from the poll to get this analysis started:
These SRI surveys were conducted from September 11-17, 2008 by telephone calls to likely registered voters in each State Senate district. For the 3rd SD, 405 voters were called, with a margin of error of + 4.9 percentage points. For the 7th SD, 402 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9. For the 15th SD, 401 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9. For the 48th SD, 437 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 56th SD, 429 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 61st SD, 450 voters were called, margin of error + 4.6. Data was statistically adjusted by respondent age - and in the 3rd SD, party - to match likely voters.
Phillip mentioned the high margin of error earlier. I would also like to point out that only 400-plus voters were surveyed in each district. That is a very small sample when you take into consideration how many voters each senate district contains.
There also some questions I had after looking at the crosstabulations for each poll. Take SD-56's crosstabs, for example. Sen. Joe Robach had a favorable rating in Greece/Parma of 71 percent. That is Robach's turf, but 71 percent still seems high to me considering Rick Dollinger had a 56 percent favorable rating on his turf in Brighton. Those numbers tell me that when they conducted this poll and especially when they called voters in Greece, they called more Republicans than Democrats. That Greece/Parma portion of the poll just seems to be inflated to me. This race isn't a double-digit race. We are talking single-digits, if not a dead heat.
The SD-3 crosstabs also boggle my mind. Trunzo is viewed favorably by 54 percent of Democrats? Really? That seems very high to me, especially since this guy is in hiding somewhere. Also, Trunzo is viewed more favorably than Brian Foley in Foley's hometown of Brookhaven. That doesn't sound right to me. And Trunzo is viewed more favorably among people ages 18 to 34? I'll have to take you word for it.
I will echo what Phillip said earlier and that is take these results with a grain of salt. Overall, I think SD-15 and SD-61 are about right. It would make sense that both of those races are tied at the moment. I do think SD-3 is much closer than that and I would even bet Foley is leading. The SD-56 poll also doesn't show how close that race truly is. Again, it depends on your sample. If your sample leans one way or another, that's the way the poll will lean. I'm not accusing Siena of anything (they do great work there) but the sample you have is the sample you work with.
What the Siena polls did tell us today is that we have a fight on our hands. But it also gave the Republicans a nice warning shot across the bow. We are coming for them with everything we have. To think, we could have four races (SD-3, SD-15, SD-56 and SD-61) in play and the Republicans are spending their resources in two races (SD-7 and SD-48) where our incumbent senators are up by double-digits.
November 4 is going to be very, very good for us. But we still need to work hard. There are other races throughout the state we should keep an eye on and work just as hard in. This election is ours for the taking. So let's take it.
As a result of those polls coming out today, some of the candidates or their campaigns have come out with statements regarding the results.
Brian Foley's campaign (SD-3): "The voters of Islip and Brookhaven are tired of skyrocketing property taxes and the failed economic policies of the Albany status quo, and no amount of misleading and negative attack ads will change that. We are not surprised that a majority of voters do not want Caesar Trunzo to represent them in Albany any longer - after 36 years of dysfunction, voters are hungry for change."
Senator Craig Johnson's campaign strategist Evan Stavisky (SD-7): "The results of this poll are a reflection of Senator Johnson's tireless efforts on behalf of Nassau's residents. He will continue to fight for real tax relief and to help New York state get back on the right track, just as he helped bring Nassau County back from the brink of fiscal crisis."
Rick Dollinger's campaign response (SD-56): "We always knew that this was going to be a close race. And, after spending hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars trying to hide from his anti-choice, pro-gun record Republican incumbent Joe Robach, who won his 2006 re-election bid with 70% of the vote has plummeted 21% to a point where less than 50% of the public wants to see him back in Albany. Monroe County voters have demonstrated that they are fed up with failed Republican economic policies and are ready for a change. The numbers in Monroe County clearly show that voters overwhelmingly support a shift in the State Senate to Democratic control and are ready to send someone to Albany who shares their beliefs and values."
Joe Mesi's campaign (SD-61): "We don't put a lot of stock in polls, but this confirms what really matters: every day, Joe Mesi is meeting Western New Yorkers who are rallying to his plans for real change for our future. With rising concerns about jobs and the economy, voters are telling Mesi they want new solutions, not more of the same failed policies of the past."
I will have more of analysis later. There is more than meets the eye with some of the results, particularly in SD-56.
The big set of polls from The Siena Research Institute that everyone has been waiting on since last week are finally live. The news is overall is pretty damn positive for Dems, but I'd caution everyone to take these numbers with a massive grain of salt. The polls have a pretty high MoE and these races are historically difficult to poll. That said, I like what I see.
Short summary: Our freshman are safe. They are absolutely crushing. Both Craig Johnson (SD-7) and Darrel Aubertine (SD-48) have leads of 20 points or more. Ceasar Trunzo (SD-3) and Serph Maltese (SD-15) are in trouble. Trunzo holds a 6 point lead on Brian Foley in the poll but is well below 50%. Maltese is tied with Joe Addabbo. The poll says that race is dead even. Rick Dollinger is within striking distance of Joe Robach, but has his work cut out for him and Joe Mesi has small lead on the Republican in the race for the open seat in SD-61.
From Siena:
Siena New York State Senate Polls:
Six Key Races Will Help Determine Control of Senate In '09
Republicans Lead in Suffolk (3rd SD) & Monroe (56th SD)
Democrats Up Big in Nassau (7th SD) & North Country (48th SD)
Races in Queens (15th SD) and Erie (61st SD) Are Neck & Neck
Loudonville, NY. With Republicans currently holding a 31-30 majority in the State Senate, the political eyes of New York are turning to legislative races across the State that will determine whether Republicans continue to control the State Senate or Democrats gain a majority for the first time in more than four decades. The two newest senators - both Democrats elected in special elections - have leads of at least twenty points, while two incumbent Republican senators have smaller leads, another Republican incumbent is tied with his opponent, and an open seat shows a very tight race, according to new Siena (College) Research Institute polls of likely voters released today.
This is a really good sign. SD-3 challenger, Brookhaven Town Supervisor Brian X. Foley, has picked up the backing of 7 unions in his bid to unseat perpetual incumbent Caesar Trunzo (R-FL). From an emailed release:
Strength in Numbers:
Seven Unions Throw Their Weight Behind Foley
Leaders of seven labor unions announced their support for State Senate candidate Brian X. Foley today. CWA District 1, CWA Local 1108, UFCW Local 1500, RWDSU, UAW Region 9A, SEIU 32BJ, and New York Hotel and Motel Trades Council each endorsed Foley.
In a District where the Republican machine has courted organized labor for generations, these seven endorsements are a dramatic illustration of Foley's momentum across Islip and Brookhaven. Foley's opponent, 36-year incumbent Caesar Trunzo, has been a fixture of the Albany status-quo for the better part of four decades.
"Brian X. Foley has always put the needs of working men and women first," said Peter Ward, President of the New York Hotel and Motel Trades Council. "He knows that a strong community needs quality jobs that pay workers a living wage and provides respect and dignity. Foley is a leader we can truly believe in: he promises job growth, and he delivers. Foley will provide the leadership we need in Albany to ensure that economic development programs designed to spur job growth, actually create good jobs for our community. We enthusiastically endorse Brian X. Foley."
"I am honored to have the support of hard-working men and women who make up the bedrock of our economy," said Foley. "Together, we will build a stronger, more prosperous Long Island and take our communities into a brighter future."
The seven endorsements signal the unions' confidence that Foley will be a force for change in the State Capital. "The endorsements underscore union confidence in Foley's commitment to change in Albany," said Shirley Aldebol, Local 32BJ's Long Island District Leader and member of the Long Island Federation of Labor. "Corporate interests should not be allowed to trump the interests of working people."
"Many politicians talk about creating jobs, but few can point to real accomplishments like Brian can," said Bob Morrow, Executive Vice President of CWA Local 1108. "In the past 6 months alone, he created hundreds of union jobs in Brookhaven. His Veteran Jobs and Education Fair drew hundreds of veterans from across Long Island. Working families can be confident that when he's in office, Brian X. Foley will put their interests on the top of his agenda."
President Bruce W. Both of UFCW Local 1500 added, "As Town Supervisor, Brian Foley has always supported UFCW local 1500 and the UFCW/RWDSU International Union in their campaign to hold Wal-Mart accountable for its irresponsible business practices that hurt workers and taxpayers. He has also been a proponent of smart, responsible development that is not done purely for benefit of developers, but considers the needs of the community as well. As a Senator, Brian Foley will put the needs of Main Street first, not the greed of Wall Street."
I can tell you that after spending some time out on Long Island with the campaign last week and another announcement like this one, it really feels as if Foley is definitely building some momentum here.
The Siena poll out later today may be able to give us a somewhat better picture as to where this race is at the moment, maybe not. I mean, this was the same outfit that told us a couple of weeks ago that McCain was trailing Obama by a mere 5 points in New York, which is, to be frank, absurd.
But I really like what I see in this race. Foley is a great candidate, he's got a great staff and now we are seeing some institutional muscle get behind the campaign.
Liz has a great breakdown of recent campaign finance filings from the Democrats and Republicans that tell where their resources are being spent and what their primary focuses are heading into November.
On the Democratic side, the three big ones are SD-3 (Brian Foley), SD-15 (Joseph Addabbo) and SD-56 (Rick Dollinger). These seats should go without saying. In SD-15, Republican Serph Maltese narrowly won in 2006 and is vulnerable this year. Here in upstate New York, Dollinger is presenting a serious challenge to Sen. Joe Robach. Robach hasn't received the same love from the SRCC that Dollinger has received from the DSCC. Meanwhile, SD-3 is interesting. Foley is getting plenty of money and support from the DSCC and Republican Sen. Caesar Trunzo is getting backing from the SRCC. Trunzo will need it since he has apparently entered his cave for the winter.
The top target for the SRCC is Maltese, who they have invested a lot of money in hoping he keeps that seat.
The second biggest target for the SRCC? One would think either Trunzo or Robach, right? After all, their counterparts with the DSCC have invested a lot of money in SD-3 and SD-56. But neither are their second biggest target.
Actually, Barbara Donno in SD-7 (Republican challenger to Sen. Craig Johnson) is. The Republicans have spent over $142,000 on Donno, which is remarkable considering she is, at best, a long shot to Sen. Johnson. The reason for this is Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos and his personal issues with Sen. Johnson. I think the Republicans are crying because Sen. Johnson broke up their nine seat stranglehold out on Long Island. By January, that should be down to seven seats.
There are a couple things that surprise me with the recent filings:
- The lack of money invested in Robach. I would think that they would want to keep this seat that has such a high Democratic enrollment with a candidate that has been able to win there multiple times now. Maybe they will invest more in Robach come October, but the fact they are investing more in races they can't win (SD-7) should raise some questions about what the Republican strategy is for November. Do they really think they are going to keep the majority? It sure seems that way. Of course, these are the same people saying McCain is close in New York.
- The money invested by the SRCC in SD-43 and no money being invested by the DSCC there. The GOP is investing a lot (over $84,000) to keep Bruno's old district red. Are they really worried about keeping this seat or what? It's a Republican district with a Republican assemblyman as the candidate. That's not to take away anything from Mike Russo. If the DSCC can give a modest amount of money to challengers like Kathy Konst, they should be giving up some cash to Russo in SD-43. That seat seems to be one that the Republicans are afraid to lose and the Democrats aren't interested in winning.
I will have more about these filings in my power rankings tomorrow.
Here again in the 3rd SD today with Foley campaign. They are having their big kickoff celebration today with their biggest canvass to date. I arrived to find the candidate speaking to a an overflow crowd here at the campaign office. These folks, I'd say around 100 or so, are now about to hit the streets with Foley and knock on doors all over the district.
It's a simply stunningly beautiful day here in Suffolk County, perfect weather for picking up a walk list and pounding some pavement for change.
If you are in or near the district, you should definitely come on by. Word is that there will be a BBQ for the all the volunteers later this afternoon.
Farmingville Office
757 Horseblock Rd.
Farmingville, NY 11738
Phone: 631.846.8503
I'm on the road today, or on the LIRR as the case may be, visiting the Foley campaign out in Ronkonkoma. The campaign office is buzzing with folks and the energy here is great. That said, check out what I saw as I stepped off the train:
Apparently they can't really bring Caesar Trunzo out in public or anything (and they seemingly think nobody will notice), but they can still buy ads on taxis. Can't say I've ever seen a candidate advertised on a cab before...
I made it down to City Hall today to meet a good number of state Senate candidates today. They were joined by Minority Leader Smith as well as Senators Klein and Savino. They were assembled there on the City Hall steps to call out the Senate Republicans who, when faced with yet more problems with the city and state's economy, still don't believe they need to come back to Albany to address it and still are offering up the same tired and discredited solutions they always do, the ones we've learned time and time again don't work.
I was able to speak with a number of them after the press conference and I'll have video shortly of Joe Mesi, Kristen McElroy and Jim Gennarro as well as many more pics. Here's McElroy for now. I have to say that I was quite impressed with both McElroy and Mesi as it was the first time I had met either one.
Jim Gennarro, Dan Squadron, Kristen McElroy and Joe Addabbo.
West Sayville, NY - Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton endorsed Brian X. Foley today for State Senate in his race against 36-year incumbent Caesar Trunzo. The endorsement by Clinton, a longtime fighter for working families and a star of the Democratic Party, is a major boost to Foley's campaign and adds to his ever growing support and momentum. Senator Clinton has inspired millions of voters across the nation with the strength of her vision for change, and her advocacy on behalf of middle-class families struggling from years of failed economic policies.
In a District where the Republican machine has courted organized labor for generations, these seven endorsements are a dramatic illustration of Foley's momentum across Islip and Brookhaven. Foley's opponent, 36-year incumbent Caesar Trunzo, has been a fixture of the Albany status-quo for the better part of four decades.
