Republican leader Dean Skelos is already plotting his course for 2010 and hoping that the so-called anti-incumbent wave that swept certain areas of New York will help his conference retake the New York State Senate.
There were also Republican successes, albeit slightly less high-profile, in Monroe, Erie and Onondaga counties, Skelos noted, all of which are home to marginal Democrats who have been in the GOP crosshairs in the past.
"If you're Bill Stachowski, Dave Valesky, Darrel Aubertine, Andrea Stewart-Cousins, Craig Johnson or Brian Foley, I think you have some cause for concern," Skelos told me yesterday.
"We've had people approaching us and asking to run against Democratic incumbents whereas in the past we've had to go out and seek candidates to run," the senator continued. "Even some candidates who maybe fell a little short, we're going to look at all of them. Some of them ran terrific campaigns and perhaps are ready to go for the Senate."
So if we go by what Skelos is saying, his targets are clear: SD-3, SD-7, SD-35, SD-48, SD-49 and SD-58.
Without challengers, it will be tough to gauge just how vulnerable those six seats are. Keep in mind that Skelos gave us Barbara Donno in SD-7 last year, so it's not as if Skelos has a good record to work with. He was, after all, the leader when the Republicans lost the majority last year.
I don't know who the Dems will choose as their candidate for NY-23 against Assemblywoman Scozzafava, but it looks like it will not be Senator Aubertine. His folks just sent out this release via email:
"There has been a lot of speculation as to whether I would run in a special election for the 23rd Congressional District.
"My priority must continue to be the work I have started in the state Senate, representing Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties. My commitment is to the people of the 48th Senate District and has been all along. Before I could even consider the possibility of serving another eight counties, I had a duty to finish out this year's session.
"This seat in Congress belongs to the people who live in these 11 counties, not any elected official or political party.
"Unfortunately, the National Republican Party has viewed the seat differently. National Republicans have demonstrated their belief that party registration matters more than the issues by spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to attack and vilify me. They never mentioned the important issues we care about here in the 23rd, whether it's our military and Fort Drum, border security and international trade, agriculture, energy and the economy of the future, or rural healthcare.
"It's no small wonder why the Washington Republicans are going extinct, and contributors should question why the money they've given was squandered here for no good reason at all.
"I support the process that the Democratic Party has put in place to come up with a candidate to run for the expected vacancy in the 23rd Congressional District. I'm certain the 11 county chairs involved in the process will continue to move toward finding a qualified candidate who understands the issues here and will embark on an honest campaign that puts people before politics."
Today, I had an opportunity to conduct a phone interview with Sen. Aubertine to discuss his vision for the commission, whether or not high speed rail fits into the infrastructure equation of the commission's goals and his joint effort with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand to make sure that locally grown foods end up on the lunch trays of local students.
The goals of the commission were outlined in a press release Wednesday, which were the following: Research and draft legislation regarding farm-to-fork programs, green energy, green jobs and green partnerships, re-thinking upstate infrastructure and rural health care. While he reinstated his support for those being the goals of the commission, Aubertine offered his own vision.
"The level of activity (of the commission) may increase a bit in large part because of the economy," Aubertine said. "Though agriculture is an important issue of mine, there are a lot of other issues. Rural health care is a huge issue. This commission could serve as a clearinghouse for a lot of discussions, whether it's agriculture, energy, green jobs. We can use this commission as a point of contact between the legislature and advocates."
Aubertine also stressed the importance of education in the process, listing several upstate New York colleges and universities like the University of Rochester, SUNY Morrisville and others who can help in areas like agriculture, researching green energy and green jobs, among other things.
In talking about infrastructure, I brought up high speed rail to Aubertine. He said that this has "been part of the dialogue with the stimulus package and in this state for a long time." And while he certainly wouldn't brush it off, Aubertine said his focus would be on providing more transportation for the disabled and seniors in rural areas where such transportation now is not readily available.
"The infrastructure now is lacking," he said. "We need more bus routes for seniors and enhance existing bus routes. Buses are a way of lessening the burden of cost and impact on the environment. It is more cheaply, with less cost to the environment. With biofuels, there are a lot of possibilities."
When asked what he thought the commission could do in terms of development, Aubertine argued that the commission could certainly be an important part of revitalizing upstate.
"[The commission] can play a pivotal role as a clearinghouse for advocates and looking at the legislature who may deal with land use development, energy and serve as a touch point for advocates for additional funding," he said.
Aubertine added: "The commission has been successful in the past. There is a real possibility of advancing issues and this commission can be a positive influence."
In addition to the news about the commission this week, Aubertine has joined Sen. Gillibrand in writing a letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack asking Vilsack to review an interpretation of processed foods to allow local produce be bought and used by local school districts. In a press release today (which you can read below the fold), Aubertine had this to say about the provision that currently prevents local produce to be used in schools because of its "processed foods" label.
"The program requires these healthy snacks be served outside of the school meal programs, so where is the logic in calling fruits and vegetables 'processed' simply because they come to the school ready to be served and eaten outside of the lunchroom?" Sen. Aubertine added.
Aubertine is certainly making a name for himself and fighting for his rural district in the process. Kudos to him for his efforts and congratulations to Aubertine for being named the latest chair of the Rural Resources Commission.
Remember when Aubertine pulled off a special election victory in February that some considered impossible? That was a great feeling, especially for rural Democrats in New York that Republicans had previously dominated. That clearly isn't the case anymore, but we still have work to do.
A source in the district says that while Aubertine has been polling very well in the district - over 50 percent in Siena's poll - there still is plenty of work to do. While Aubertine isn't in any danger it would appear, people still need to vote and support him.
If you need a reminder as to why you should support Darrel Aubertine, here it is:
This is an important election. We are on the verge of taking over the New York State Senate but we can't do that if we lose incumbent Democrats, especially precious incumbents in Republican areas. Aubertine has served SD-48 very well in the Senate to date and will continue to do so while in the majority.
The new Siena Polls are hot off the presses an things look pretty good for Dems across the state. In fact, if these numbers are correct and the election wre held today, the GOP would lose it's Senate majority.
The biggest numbers to pop out is the lead Brian Foley has over Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) and the huge comeback by incumbent Dem Bill Stachowski. Foley leads Trunzo by a whopping 22 points and Stachowski has turned a 13 point deficit into a 4 point lead.
A rundown:
3rd SD - Suffolk County - Caesar Trunzo (R, incumbent) vs. Brian Foley (D)
Foley has a 56-34 percent lead over Trunzo. Trunzo led 46-40 percent in the previous Siena New York Poll. While Foley has picked up a little more support among Democrats, he has cut Trunzo's lead among Republican voters to 53-39 percent, down dramatically from 71-16 percent. Additionally, Foley has opened up a 63-27 percent lead among independent voters, up from 43-40 percent previously.
Foley has expanded a two-point lead in Brookhaven to a 12-point lead, and reversed 12-point deficit in Islip and turned it into 30-point lead. Where Trunzo had a nine-point lead among voters 55-years of age and older, Foley now leads with those voters 52-40 percent. Foley leads by 13 points with men and 30 points with women. The only demographic group in which Trunzo leads is among Republicans.
If Foley leads by even 10 points in Trunzo's Islip backyard, this thing is over. The poll shows a 30 point lead. And before the GOoPs start screaming about the poll sample, look at the Obama/McCain numbers. They are essentially dead even. It's not like they are only polling Dems.
6th SD - Nassau County - Kemp Hannon (R, incumbent) vs. Kristen McElroy (D)
Hannon has a commanding 56-30 percent lead, in a district that is virtually evenly enrolled between Republicans and Democrats. Hannon has the support of 80 percent of Republicans and picks up the support of nearly one-third of Democrats. McElroy only wins among Democrats 55-32 percent, while only attracting support from 10 percent of Republicans. Hannon leads among independent voters 56-21 percent.
McElroy leads among young voters and those in the Council District 1 section of the Hempstead portion of the Senate district. However, Hannon has much bigger leads in the remainder of the district and has better than 60 percent among voters who are at least 35-years old.
Ouch. Got some work to do here.
15th SD - Queens County - Serph Maltese (R, incumbent) vs. Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D)
Addabbo currently has a slim 45-43 percent lead over Maltese. In the September Siena poll, the two were tied at 42 percent, in this district that has an overwhelmingly Democratic enrollment edge. Maltese has the support of more than three-quarters of Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats. Addabbo leads 61-27 percent among Democrats and picks up the support of 20 percent of Republicans. Maltese leads among independent voters 51-31 percent. Maltese leads by four points with men, while Addabbo has a seven-point lead with women. Addabbo leads in the southern part of the district and Maltese leads in the north.
Maltese is viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 33 percent of voters, down from a 48-16 percent favorable rating previously. Addabbo's favorable rating is 42-30 percent, and was previously 38-20 percent.
Obama leads McCain in this district 57-32 percent, up from 49-31 percent.
48th SD - Oswego/Jefferson/St. Lawrence - Darrel Aubertine (D, incumbent) vs. David Renzi (R)
Aubertine, who had a 51-31 percent lead over Renzi in the last poll, has seen that lead drop to 49-38 percent. Aubertine has the support of nearly three-quarters of Democrats and more than one-third of Republicans in this district with a heavy Republican enrollment edge. Renzi leads 57-35 percent with Republicans, up from 41-37 percent previously, and only gets 13 percent of Democrats. Aubertine is winning among independent voters 49-34 percent, up from 41-37 percent previously. While Renzi has erased a 20-point Aubertine lead in Oswego County, and now leads there 44-37 percent, Aubertine has widened his leads in Jefferson (25 points, up from 16) and St. Lawrence (30 points, up from 27) Counties.
Aubertine is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 31 percent of voters, down from 58-21 percent previously. Renzi has a 40-35 percent favorability rating; previously it was 34-15 percent.
Aubertine is going to fine.
58th SD - Erie County - William Stachowski (D, incumbent) vs. Dennis Delano (R)
Stachowski now has a 47-43 percent lead over Delano, after trailing 49-36 percent in the previous Siena poll in this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge. Stachowski has increased his lead among Democrats to 62-30 percent (up from 51-34 percent). Delano maintains a 63-25 percent lead among Republicans (virtually unchanged from 64-23 percent) and has seen his lead among independent voters fall to 54-36 percent, down from 67-19 percent.
Whereas Delano led in all three sections of the district previously, Stachowski now leads 47-37 percent in Buffalo/Lackawanna, 48-45 percent in Cheektowaga, and 47-44 percent in the southern suburbs. Stachowski has a 12-point lead with men, while Delano has a two-point lead with women. Delano has a significant lead with Protestants. Stachowski leads with Catholics, and has a big lead among younger voters.
Stachowski has a 50-31 percent favorable rating. It had been 39-14 percent. Delano's favorable rating, 53-33 percent, is down from 63-15 percent. Delano continues to have a positive favorable rating with voters of every party, while Stachowski has increased his favorability among Democrats but lost ground with independent voters and saw his favorability among Republicans drop from 35-12 percent to 29-50 percent.
More than half of voters would like to see the Senate controlled by Democrats, and Obama has opened 55-37 percent lead over McCain, up from 45-41 percent previously.
"Senator Stachowski has turned this race around. In four weeks he has erased a 13-point deficit and turned it into a tight four-point lead. Where Delano previously had a much better favorable rating with voters, the two are now viewed by voters in virtually the same light. We will have to wait until Election Day to see if Stachowski continues his momentum to win re-election, or if Delano can turn this race back around again and defeat a 27-year incumbent in this overwhelmingly Democratic district," Greenberg said.
Stach is back. That's what a comeback looks like. I guess the more folks learn about Delano, the less they like what they see. Also, this one of those races that an Obama wave could seriously affect. If that wave reaches Buffalo, Stachowski could end up blowing Delano right out of the water.
61st SD - Erie and Genesee Counties - Michael Ranzenhofer (R) vs. Joseph Mesi (D)
Ranzenhofer has a 47-42 percent lead over Mesi, who had a slimmer 40-38 percent lead in the previous Siena poll, in this district where Republicans have a very small enrollment edge over Democrats. Ranzenhofer leads among Republicans 69-25 percent, up from 59-21 percent. Mesi leads among Democrats 62-29 percent, closer than the previous 63-19 percent. Mesi leads among independent voters 42-37 percent, although Ranzenhofer closed the gap from 43-28 percent. Mesi leads in Tonawanda by seven points (down from 10). Ranzenhofer leads in the Clarence/Newstead/Genesee County portions of the district by 15 points (up from two points), and in Amherst by three points (up a tick from two points).
Ranzenhofer has a 47-26 percent favorable rating, compared to 35-12 percent previously. Mesi's favorable rating is 46-37 percent, compared to 45-18 percent in the previous Siena poll.
While the race has shifted seven points from Mesi to Ranzenhofer, a reverse trend occurred on the question of who voters support to control the Senate. Previously, voters supported Republican control by a 44-38 percent margin, while now a slim plurality, 43-41 percent, support Democratic control. The presidential race also flipped, with McCain's 45-40 percent lead now becoming a 51-42 percent lead for Obama.
"This district is close in enrollment between Republicans and Democrats. The voters are close in their view on which party should control the Senate. The voters have switched their support from McCain to Obama over the last few weeks. And a small Mesi lead has turned into a slightly wider Ranzenhofer lead. Which party's voters turn out in larger numbers on Tuesday may well determine the outcome of this race. Either way, it figures to be a late night as the votes get counted in this race," Greenberg said.
This one may very well come down to Obama's GOTV operation as well. If his voters show in force, I think Mesi wins this thing. Mesi likes to remind folks that he is undefeated. If the Obama wave does indeed materialize in the manner that it appears to be, he'll be able to call himself undefeated still. Give him a hand.
The Brown, Dierdorf & Renzi partner was incorrectly designated as a town employee, which made him eligible for the state benefit. But Mr. Renzi, who is running for the 48th district state Senate seat against Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine, D-Cape Vincent, does not meet the state criteria for being an employee for several reasons, including that he does not submit time sheets to the town, work fixed hours there, have a permanent work space at the town or report to anyone at the town during each work day.
Through Pamelia, Mr. Renzi accrued 300 days of service credit and $26,539 in salary credit in the state retirement system. The attorney has received no benefits because he has not retired.
Pamelia Supervisor Lawrence C. Longway said Mr. Renzi asked to be enrolled in the state benefits system when he was hired.
"He lagged a little bit to be totally vested, so he wanted some New York state retirement time," the supervisor recalled. "Whatever benefits he wanted, whether it was New York state retirement or health insurance, we did him whatever he wanted. But he paid for it all."
In the article, the paper states that they received the information from the DSCC, which led to Renzi claiming that a "whisper campaign" was started by Aubertine's campaign.
"I have always held myself to highest ethical standards," said Mr. Renzi in the statement. "My opponent wants to avoid having to answer legitimate questions that have been raised about his own unethical and illegal behavior, and misuse of taxpayer money while in office, and so has raised these issues as part of his increasingly negative campaign."
First off, there is nothing ethical about dipping into the state retirement system when you aren't allowed to. This isn't the first time we have seen this and it won't be the last. Secondly, Renzi is doing what he accuses Aubertine of doing. The newspaper raises questions about his own conduct and Renzi turns it on Aubertine, which is the same thing he alleges Aubertine is doing in the quote above.
It is rather comical how desperate the Republicans are this cycle. They know that they will be the minority come January 1 and they aren't looking forward to it at all.
Darrel Aubertine is out with a new ad that reminds voters that he is still one of us.
You might remember perhaps the best ad of the year (at least up to this point) highlighting Aubertine as one of us during his special election campaign earlier this year:
The Siena polls released today have created quite the buzz. No one said this New York State Senate fight would be easy, but it certainly is quite intriguing. These polls showed that these races are going to be very competitive in some places and not-so competitive in others.
But how seriously should we take these polls? Let's use this disclaimer from the poll to get this analysis started:
These SRI surveys were conducted from September 11-17, 2008 by telephone calls to likely registered voters in each State Senate district. For the 3rd SD, 405 voters were called, with a margin of error of + 4.9 percentage points. For the 7th SD, 402 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9. For the 15th SD, 401 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9. For the 48th SD, 437 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 56th SD, 429 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 61st SD, 450 voters were called, margin of error + 4.6. Data was statistically adjusted by respondent age - and in the 3rd SD, party - to match likely voters.
Phillip mentioned the high margin of error earlier. I would also like to point out that only 400-plus voters were surveyed in each district. That is a very small sample when you take into consideration how many voters each senate district contains.
There also some questions I had after looking at the crosstabulations for each poll. Take SD-56's crosstabs, for example. Sen. Joe Robach had a favorable rating in Greece/Parma of 71 percent. That is Robach's turf, but 71 percent still seems high to me considering Rick Dollinger had a 56 percent favorable rating on his turf in Brighton. Those numbers tell me that when they conducted this poll and especially when they called voters in Greece, they called more Republicans than Democrats. That Greece/Parma portion of the poll just seems to be inflated to me. This race isn't a double-digit race. We are talking single-digits, if not a dead heat.
The SD-3 crosstabs also boggle my mind. Trunzo is viewed favorably by 54 percent of Democrats? Really? That seems very high to me, especially since this guy is in hiding somewhere. Also, Trunzo is viewed more favorably than Brian Foley in Foley's hometown of Brookhaven. That doesn't sound right to me. And Trunzo is viewed more favorably among people ages 18 to 34? I'll have to take you word for it.
I will echo what Phillip said earlier and that is take these results with a grain of salt. Overall, I think SD-15 and SD-61 are about right. It would make sense that both of those races are tied at the moment. I do think SD-3 is much closer than that and I would even bet Foley is leading. The SD-56 poll also doesn't show how close that race truly is. Again, it depends on your sample. If your sample leans one way or another, that's the way the poll will lean. I'm not accusing Siena of anything (they do great work there) but the sample you have is the sample you work with.
What the Siena polls did tell us today is that we have a fight on our hands. But it also gave the Republicans a nice warning shot across the bow. We are coming for them with everything we have. To think, we could have four races (SD-3, SD-15, SD-56 and SD-61) in play and the Republicans are spending their resources in two races (SD-7 and SD-48) where our incumbent senators are up by double-digits.
November 4 is going to be very, very good for us. But we still need to work hard. There are other races throughout the state we should keep an eye on and work just as hard in. This election is ours for the taking. So let's take it.
As a result of those polls coming out today, some of the candidates or their campaigns have come out with statements regarding the results.
Brian Foley's campaign (SD-3): "The voters of Islip and Brookhaven are tired of skyrocketing property taxes and the failed economic policies of the Albany status quo, and no amount of misleading and negative attack ads will change that. We are not surprised that a majority of voters do not want Caesar Trunzo to represent them in Albany any longer - after 36 years of dysfunction, voters are hungry for change."
Senator Craig Johnson's campaign strategist Evan Stavisky (SD-7): "The results of this poll are a reflection of Senator Johnson's tireless efforts on behalf of Nassau's residents. He will continue to fight for real tax relief and to help New York state get back on the right track, just as he helped bring Nassau County back from the brink of fiscal crisis."
Rick Dollinger's campaign response (SD-56): "We always knew that this was going to be a close race. And, after spending hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars trying to hide from his anti-choice, pro-gun record Republican incumbent Joe Robach, who won his 2006 re-election bid with 70% of the vote has plummeted 21% to a point where less than 50% of the public wants to see him back in Albany. Monroe County voters have demonstrated that they are fed up with failed Republican economic policies and are ready for a change. The numbers in Monroe County clearly show that voters overwhelmingly support a shift in the State Senate to Democratic control and are ready to send someone to Albany who shares their beliefs and values."
Joe Mesi's campaign (SD-61): "We don't put a lot of stock in polls, but this confirms what really matters: every day, Joe Mesi is meeting Western New Yorkers who are rallying to his plans for real change for our future. With rising concerns about jobs and the economy, voters are telling Mesi they want new solutions, not more of the same failed policies of the past."
I will have more of analysis later. There is more than meets the eye with some of the results, particularly in SD-56.
Imagine this. The SRCC has dumped well over a half million dollars on your race, a race in a media market that ain't exactly hugely expensive, a race for a seat your party held for over a century until some other guy won it handily in a special election just a mere 7 months ago and you wake up today to find yourself still down by 20 points. What do you do?
That video was shot off a TV by the intrepid Danger Democrat up in the North Country, btw.
What to say? As I say above, I really don't think the Renzi camp has a lot of options right now. I find it hard to believe that Dean Skelos is going to continue to pump the big bucks into a race that looks all but over, though I'd really love to be wrong about that. Of the few options left, going hard negative is probably the most attractive. At a minimum, it's the best of some bad options. That said, I'm rather suspect of the method here (as is DD). Putting your smears in the mouths of children could very easily backfire with the voters of the 48th. I'm curious to know just how big the buy is.
But, then again, what else were they going to do? They've thrown a whole bunch of money at this race and it seems to have not had much effect at all. In true Upstate New York Republican fashion, it was time to hide behind the kids.
As if you needed any more proof this week that Republicans can't handle money, take a look at where Dean Skelos has been blowing his campaign committee's money so far this cycle. He's spent close to $1.3 million on Barbara Donno ($650K in SD-7) and David Renzi ($600K in SD-48). The result? Their candidates are being crushed by 20 points or more. It seems that Skelos just can't let the SD-7 race go, as he continues to pour money into a vendetta race against Craig Johnson. As for SD-48, I guess they just can't get over the fact that they lost a seat they'd held since the 19th century and must feel that they are owed it or something. Darrel Aubertine appears to have sealed the deal with the good people of the district and even $600K doesn't seem to have changed that perception all that much.
The point is that that money is gone. It's not coming back. Dean has dropped well over million bucks on two long shots and has gotten two blowouts in return.
Of course, this all pales in comparison to the nearly $1 million, give or take a cup of coffee or two, that Dean has dumped into defending Serph Maltese. That's a lot of money and it's only September. The result? A dead heat against 20 year incumbent. A million bucks and Maltese is still in real serious trouble.
With mad fiscal skillz like these, is it any wonder our state budget is in such a mess?
The big set of polls from The Siena Research Institute that everyone has been waiting on since last week are finally live. The news is overall is pretty damn positive for Dems, but I'd caution everyone to take these numbers with a massive grain of salt. The polls have a pretty high MoE and these races are historically difficult to poll. That said, I like what I see.
Short summary: Our freshman are safe. They are absolutely crushing. Both Craig Johnson (SD-7) and Darrel Aubertine (SD-48) have leads of 20 points or more. Ceasar Trunzo (SD-3) and Serph Maltese (SD-15) are in trouble. Trunzo holds a 6 point lead on Brian Foley in the poll but is well below 50%. Maltese is tied with Joe Addabbo. The poll says that race is dead even. Rick Dollinger is within striking distance of Joe Robach, but has his work cut out for him and Joe Mesi has small lead on the Republican in the race for the open seat in SD-61.
From Siena:
Siena New York State Senate Polls:
Six Key Races Will Help Determine Control of Senate In '09
Republicans Lead in Suffolk (3rd SD) & Monroe (56th SD)
Democrats Up Big in Nassau (7th SD) & North Country (48th SD)
Races in Queens (15th SD) and Erie (61st SD) Are Neck & Neck
Loudonville, NY. With Republicans currently holding a 31-30 majority in the State Senate, the political eyes of New York are turning to legislative races across the State that will determine whether Republicans continue to control the State Senate or Democrats gain a majority for the first time in more than four decades. The two newest senators - both Democrats elected in special elections - have leads of at least twenty points, while two incumbent Republican senators have smaller leads, another Republican incumbent is tied with his opponent, and an open seat shows a very tight race, according to new Siena (College) Research Institute polls of likely voters released today.
I think we now have a pretty good idea of how the last Republican State Senate Majority leader of our lifetimes, Dean Skelos, plans to try to hold on to his rather tenuous and doomed majority. Basically, they are planning to hopelessly play offense while they've got incumbents in real, genuine danger and, perhaps most importantly, they are going to run away from their own party and the dysfunction they've helped create over the last 70 years or so.
Take a look at the TV ads that Skelos' crew is funding for three of their challengers. There a number of common themes running through all three of them. First, never will you see one of these candidates identify themselves as a Republican, even though, despite their claims of "independence", the Republican Senate Committee now being run by Skelos is bankrolling these ads. Second, not only will they not identify themselves by party, they are all running against something they refer to as "Albany". I'm assuming this is the same Albany that their party has had a major hand in running into the ground all these years. That's right, these seemingly party-less challengers are all running for the state Senate in order to clean up the very dysfunction that their party, the ones funding the ads, largely helped create and, especially in the case of the GOP controlled Senate, have robustly defended. They do so while claiming to be "independent" leaders called to the fight against a corrupt and out of touch Albany. That's rich.
She's "not a typical politician" who is running because "Albany isn't listening." OK. It should be mentioned that her chances of actually defeating Craig Johnson are slim at best. In reality, this campaign is not much more than a personal vendetta for Skelos and Joe Mondello, both of whom simply haven't gotten over the fact that they lost this seat last year.
Here's an ad by Liz Feld who is running a rather quixotic campaign against Suzi Oppenheimer. You'll see a few of the same themes and notice many of the same omissions:
It should also be noted that Liz Feld's run is just as puzzling as Donno's. She simply isn't going to beat Oppenheimer. It won't even be close, no matter how much money Skelos may choose to dump into it which, given that this race isn't on Long Island, will probably not be anywhere near as much as Donno's.
Finally, check out this ad from SD-48 challenger Dave Renzi. Once again, you'll see the candidate in their home, no mention of party ID and a distinct anti-Albany bent. This one is special though, as it actually mentions the word "dysfunction" and even calls for this year's buzzword, a word Republicans the nation are over are trying desperately to find a way to co-opt, "change." Because, ya know, nothing says "change" in Albany like maintaining the status quo of the GOP Senate majority...
So, there ya go. How does Skelos hope to hang on to his doomed Senate GOP majority? By running away from the fact that there even is a Senate GOP majority and running against the dysfunction perpetuated by the same. He plans to do this by playing offense with long shot (and expensive) candidates who refuse to even identify as Republicans.
This hasn't stopped Skelos and his crew from talking up their chances to reporters though. Check out this gem:
Senate Republicans are privately feeling confident about winning back some seats that they have lost in recent years to the Democrats as they seek to retain control of the Senate majority.
Best of luck with that, Dean. When your whole strategy seems to be to run away from your party and from the facts as they are, that's quite a tall order.
Aubertine put it best, saying that "this would have been a beneficial financial move for me and my family." But politically, it would not have been a smart move.
If you take Aubertine out of SD-48, you take away a seat that we hold and has a large Republican enrollment advantage. If SD-48 had a large Democratic enrollment advantage, it would be a smart move (see John Sabini's appointment to New York State Racing and Wagering Board). But this would not be a smart political move, considering it has been nearly four months since we won SD-48 in a special election and Aubertine makes it possible for us to hold onto that seat for years to come.
So what was Paterson thinking? I don't think he's making a concerted effort to undermine our attempt to take back the Senate in November, but he isn't making things easier for us. The offer to Aubertine was puzzling and raises some serious questions.
- It's one thing to make the Sabini appointment. It's another to make this one. Is Paterson really not concerned with who holds the Senate?
Both of those questions are tough to answer. Maybe there's something about Aubertine I don't know. But based on what we have seen with Paterson over the last few months, it would appear that he is not too concerned with the prospects of a Democratic Senate beginning in 2009.
(Note: I read this on CapCon first on Friday, but the commenters on this seemed to doubt the validity of the blog in mention. Therefore, I did not want to write about it until some independent verification could be made.)
What an odd situation this would be. One senator retires from his post to take a much more lucrative post as a lobbyist and then decides that he might be interested in challenging the man who won the special election for that seat two months ago.
For the record: It's true that the veteran Republican lawmaker whose retirement sparked an epic battle and cost the majority yet another seat in their ever-shrinking conference is in fact considering a run this fall to get his old job back.
"I can confirm that yes I am having discussions with people," Wright said. "Circumstances have changed over the last five months. We lost the special election, which was unanticipated. Everyone viewed that as a safe seat."
"..There have been a number of decisions made by the incumbant that have resulted in my phone ringing. I'm evaluating the situation, and it's very flattering to be asked," he continued.
This would be a very intriguing matchup in November. I think Aubertine is still the favorite to win, but he will be facing a tough challenger in a tough district. Wright almost has some sort of incumbent advantage because it wasn't that long ago that he was representing this district. If we have one candidate that can win, it is Aubertine. He proved in November that even with the enrollment advantage the Republicans have, a Democrat can win that seat with true bipartisan support.
Bipartisan sources have confirmed that the eight term congressman's name is rising to the top of the list to challenge Aubertine, who won the Senate seat in a special election last month. McHugh held this Senate seat for eight years before going to Congress in 1992.
McHugh's high name recognition, and the large Republican make-up in the district, would immediately vault a race between him and Aubertine to the top of most competitive Senate races in a year when Democrats are two seats from claiming the majority for the first time since 1965. McHugh, who has been the subject of retirement rumors for several years, is said to be tired of the Washington commute.
...
McHugh's campaign spokesman said his boss was planning to seek another term this year and was unsure where speculation about a State Senate race would have come from. He said McHugh has not given indication of any worry over the redistricting process.
"Having served in the New York State Senate, he has the utmost respect for that body," McHugh spokesman John Sweeney said. "He has the fullest intention of running for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives again."
Sweeney noted that McHugh, a former chairman of the Postal Affairs Subcommittee, has informed his Republican colleagues of his interest in becoming the top Republican, whether as chair or ranking member, on the House Armed Services Committee, where he has served since arriving in Washington.
It shows you how desperate the Republicans are to retain the Senate when they want a congressman to run against Aubertine. I think the GOP needs to face facts: Aubertine is a great fit for that seat. They are better off investing their energy elsewhere - wherever that might be.
This one may fall in the "What Are They Thinking" category and I don't mean the cows. When Democrat Darrel Aubertine last month squared off against William Barclay for the 48th SD Aubertine and his supporters made alot of his career as a dairy farmer in contrast to Barclay's job as a lawyer. Moreover, Aubertine in the Assembly was on the Agriculture Committee.
But now he's in the Senate and, guess what, according to the latest assignment roster for the Senate Minority, Aubertine is not on the Ag committee.
Instead, he's been assigned to the Veterans, Homeland Security and Military Affairs - which makes sense due the presence of the Army's Fort Drum in his district, and the district's proximity to the Candian border. He's also on Crime and Corrections - which kind of makes sense since, like so many North Country Senators, he has a prison in his district (actually, five). But no Ag apparently.
Democratic members of the Ag committee, by the way, include David Valesky from outside of Syracuse and William Stachowski and Neil Breslin from the agricultural centers of Buffalo and Albany, respectively.
This is the Agriculture Committee. I would think that even in the Senate, Aubertine could find a spot on this committee. After all, he does have the qualifications.
UPDATE: I received an e-mail from Sen. Craig Johnson's office verifying that Sen. Johnson will give up his seat for Aubertine to sit on the Agriculture Committee. A truly honorable move by Sen. Johnson, given the fact that Aubertine's life has been all about agriculture. Kudos to Sen. Johnson for this move and congratulations to Sen. Aubertine for his new committee!
What's most encouraging about the way Team Spitzer snapped its long losing streak: They won by playing smart. Spitzer's political advisers - working closely with Senate Democrats and the Working Families Party - ran a crafty, energetic campaign from start to finish. His gang can shoot straight after all.
In a strategy that ought to be duplicated in other Senate races this fall, Democrats recruited a topnotch candidate, supported him with strong fund-raising, outhustled the Republicans in the field and focused the campaign on an issue voters care about deeply - bringing good jobs to their district - instead of empty partisan posturing.
The key to the whole enterprise was Spitzer's willingness to break with ancient Albany tradition and actually campaign against members of the opposite party in the state Legislature.
This might sound like Politics 101, but it goes against generations of business as usual in New York State government. Democratic Govs. Mario Cuomo and Hugh Carey left the Senate Republicans alone, and Republican Gov. George Pataki never lifted a finger to unseat Assembly Democrats.
This made it easier for governors and legislative leaders to do their deals behind closed doors, but insulated the majority parties from accountability to the voters.
Spitzer deserves credit for tearing up this unholy nonaggression pact and giving voters a real choice at the polls.
Generations of New Yorkers have been robbed of "a real choice at the polls" by that disgraceful deal. They were denied an effective, responsive and accountable state government. The best chance of returning to them a government that actually addresses their concerns (or pays the consequences of not doing so) was to ditch the get along, go along deal that has hamstrung accountability for so long.
It has made plenty of enemies for Spitzer (and for real reform) but it was absolutely the right thing to do.
It reminded me of when June stopped in Orleans County for about an hour in October, a few weeks before the local elections here.
Here is an excerpt from the P-S piece:
O'Neill said the Republican advantage in party registration Upstate also has disappeared. Today, she said, the number of enrolled Democrats exceeds the number of enrolled Republicans north of New York City. State election records show that in the congressional districts north of New York City there are more than 1.8 million Democrats, just
a bit less than 1.8 million Republicans. In 2000, Republicans outnumbered Democrats Upstate by about 100,000.
St. Lawrence County reflects that change, O'Neill said. In the 1970s when, spurred by her husband's interest, she got into politics, Republicans outnumbered Democrats about 3-to-1 in the county. Now there are more than 10,000 registered independent voters and the Republican advantage is fewer than 2,000 among 60,000 registered voters.
"It's definitely a swing county," she said.
Coming from the most upstate of Upstate counties, O'Neill said the alleged Upstate/Downstate split is "a red herring," nothing more than campaign rhetoric. "I think we're one state," she said. Whether the topic is affordable housing, teenage pregnancy, homelessness, crack cocaine or access to health care, she said the same issues affect New Yorkers everywhere.
June O'Neill is an excellent (and effective) leader. One piece of advice she gave our candidates here in Orleans County was to burn holes in the soles of your shoes. She really stressed hard work on a campaign and she was inspiring.
The goals of the commission were outlined in a press release Wednesday, which were the following: Research and draft legislation regarding farm-to-fork programs, green energy, green jobs and green partnerships, re-thinking upstate infrastructure and rural health care. While he reinstated his support for those being the goals of the commission, Aubertine offered his own vision.
