Fresh from his upset victory, Sen. Darrel Aubertine on Thursday said voters don't care much about the matters consuming some elected leaders.
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"I got to be honest with you, in my district people really don't pay attention to it; it's really not discussed at all," Aubertine said. "I did not hear once in my campaign anybody talk about Joe Bruno. ... If you were to tap 10 people on the shoulder walking the streets of my district and asked them who Joe Bruno was, most of them couldn't tell you ... because that's not the concern. It's about what's going on in our backyard, not what's going on down here in the halls of this building."
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Bruno vows to win back the seat for the GOP. In a radio interview, the Brunswick Republican said Aubertine won a "popularity contest," and Barclay's defeat had nothing to do with GOP priorities. He suggested Spitzer must be investigated because polls show people don't believe the governor.
Former New York State Republican Committee chair and current Monroe County Republican chair Steve Minarik is running into some criticism from members of his own party because of the tactics his ad firm, Wahl Media, early on in the 48th Senate District special election won by Darrel Aubertine.
Minarik is being criticized because of negative attacks that apparently were even too negative for some Republicans. Some Republicans are even blaming Minarik's tactics for the loss.
For the record, Wahl Media made a pretty penny for their efforts. According to Will Barclay's campaign finance filing, Minarik's Wahl Media made $643,833 through February 8. Meaning, they could have made more money, which we will know with the post-election filings.
What will this mean for Minarik? The talk in Albany circles is that Minarik's role in the 56th Senate District race might be limited by the state GOP. In fact, the state GOP might try to play a more dominant role in SD-56 because of Minarik's failures in SD-48.
This might not be a good sign for Republican Joe Robach in SD-56. Minarik and Robach are very close. If Minarik is pushed aside by the state GOP, that could be good for the Democrats in that district. Not that Minarik is a political guru, but the state GOP had their chance to play a huge role in the SD-48 race and they lost big time. So if they jump into SD-56, that could be a very good thing for Democratic candidate in the district and could make the race more appealing to the New York State Democratic Party.
Earlier today I spoke on the phone with someone who had worked on the Aubertine campaign. They told me about this new voter tracking system that I've been hearing about for weeks now, the system that Bruno's boys thought was going to win them the election that should have never been close. Basically, the GOP assigns their voters in each ED a barcode and equips their poll watchers a blackberry type device with a barcode scanner attached. Every time a code is scanned it's instantly relayed to GOoPer HQ and they know who has voted and who to send the body snatchers for. The staffer I spoke to earlier laughed as he said, "I'd rather have 100 WFP folks working their tails off than a barcode scanner any day." Well, behold the results:
The first thing that should jump out at you is the higher turnout in the northern and central parts of the district, Aubertine's homebase and the areas encompassing much of his AD. Then check out the southern part, Barclay's turf. It appears that many of Barclay's folks did what Danger Democrat figured they might do a few days ago, namely "vote with their fanny."
But, that's only part of the story. The really significant take away here is how the DSCC crew on site (which was run by Nathan Smith) along with the WFP's folks working their tails off simply outhustled Bruno's boys. They turned out their people in the ED's that they needed to.
How long do you think it will take for Bruno to cancel member item funding to the 48th or do you think he's done so already?
I'm sure you remember how he did just that to SD-35, even cutting off funding for the Westchester SPCA after Andrea Stewart-Cousins defeated Nick Spano in '06. He did to SD-7 after Craig Johnson won a special last year.
Democrat Darrel Aubertine was sworn in as the 48th state senate district's senator at 12:30 Wednesday afternoon.
It's the first time in more than a century that a Democrat will represent the district.
The swearing in followed Tuesday night's Aubertine victory over Will Barclay.
What a great sight. Congratulations, Senator Aubertine. Congratulations to the people of the 48th. You just got yourself a fine new senator.
I also want to congratulate and thank all the great folks who worked so hard to make this happen and I especially want to thank all the great members of this community, and there a plenty of you, who took it upon yourselves to go and work their butts off in the snowy North Country.
St. Lawrence County resident, New York State Democratic Party Co-Chair and general all around rockstar June O'Neill speaks at Darrel Aubertine's victory party last night in Watertown, NY:
(Like I've been saying from the beginning, this one would be won with field. Guess what? It was. - promoted by phillip anderson)
Darrel Aubertine won because he turned out his base, that is voters in and around his Assembly District. While the "River District" turned out big for Aubertine, turnout lagged in Oswego County and Will Barclay's Assembly District.
County
2/26 Turnout
2006 Turnout
% of 2006
Aubertine %
Jefferson (118th AD)
12,877
15,624
82%
68%
St. Lawrence
10,586
14,408
73%
61%
Jefferson (rest)
8,481
10,726
78%
58%
Oswego
21,365
33,452
64%
37%
In 2006, Jefferson & St. Lawrence Counties accounted for 55% of the vote in SD-48; yesterday they cast nearly 60% of ballots district-wide.
Darrel Aubertine is a very intriguing candidate. In fact, when I first found out about Aubertine, I went to his website's Meet Darrel page. The lines that stuck out to me were:
For over thirty years, Darrel Aubertine worked as a full-time dairy farmer. He woke up early, worked hard and made ends meet for his family.
More than a decade ago, he was asked by the local Republican town supervisor to run for town office. Darrel did so to be a voice for his family, his friends in agriculture and his community.
Two things: He's a farmer and when he was asked to run for office, it was by a Republican.
Aubertine's victory tonight is huge. It's historic because a Democrat has not held that seat in about 130 years - possibly longer. The importance of the victory to the New York State Senate and the Democratic Party is obvious: It brings us one seat away from having the majority in the Senate for the first time in over a century.
But calling this an upset would be, to me at least, not appreciating the great candidate Aubertine is and why he has garnered support in the North Country in the past and why he won on Tuesday night.
For some history, Aubertine actually lost back in 2000 in his bid for Assembly. Back then, it was the 114th Assembly District seat he was seeking. Then, he lost by about 3,000 votes.
In 2004, Darrel won reelection by over 14,000 votes. The 118th Assembly District more Republicans than Democrats, but not by much. When 2006 came around, Darrel ran unopposed to victory.
Did Darrel face an enrollment disadvantage? Yes. But if you compare the SD-48 district map with the 118th Assembly District map, you'll notice that a healthy portion of Darrel's Assembly district makes up the 48th Senate District.
So when it comes to calling this an upset, I can't do so. Here's why:
(1) If it was truly an upset, why did polls show Aubertine with a slim lead just last week? Yes, the lead was slim but it was a lead nonetheless.
(2) Was there any moment in this campaign where Barclay really came off as the better candidate? I certainly can't think of one. Aubertine handled the issues a lot better. Barclay was on the attack all the time. While Aubertine was talking issues, Barclay was accusing him of supporting Gov. Spitzer's DMV policy change. So while Barclay and the Republicans were talking about dead issues, Aubertine was talking real, middle-class issues with the people of SD-48.
(3) If this was an upset, why did Aubertine win handily in St. Lawrence County and in Jefferson County? That amounts to getting 61 percent of the vote in St. Lawrence County and 64 percent in Jefferson County. Darrel had his base in this election and they came out and supported him in a huge way. That base includes Democrats, Republicans and several minor party members.
(4) I never doubted Aubertine. I thought he was going to win this race because of the kind of guy he is. I said on my radio show Tuesday night that Aubertine IS one of us. And that alone makes him a perfect choice to represent the middle class citizens of his district in Albany.
I'm not trying to downplay the win. It is a huge win and I'm ecstatic about the results. It's historic, important and really proves how a grassroots campaign can resonate with voters. But I don't see the upset qualities that you see with other races. Aubertine had a lot of factors working for him in this race. People are ready for change and that includes here in New York.
So let's celebrate the win because we had the better candidate and the candidate willing to talk the issues. Calling it an upset would downplay what really happened here: A true middle class politician was just elected to New York's upper house.
UPDATE: The Times-Union has called it for Aubertine, calling it an "upset" of Barclay. I don't know how much of an upset it was. I think calling it an upset fails to acknowledge the strong bi-partisan support Aubertine received in Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties. That was key to his victory tonight. Upset? I think not.
Media outlets are only calling Aubertine the "unofficial" or "apparent" winner because there are approximately 3,836 absentee ballots left outstanding. Common sense and just straight mathematics would suggest that it is nearly impossible for Barclay to win this race. He would need to win around 3,197 votes to win this race outright counting absentee ballots.
Aubertine's victory has led to questions about his Assembly seat. Aubertine represents the 118th Assembly District and one person has come forward as a possible candidate for that seat: Addie Jenne-Russell.
Democratic Jefferson County District 4 Legislator Addie Jenne-Russell, who was on hand for Aubertine's victory celebration Tuesday night, said she's interested in running for the 118th District Assembly seat.
"It's something that I've thought about obviously with Darrel winning, it does leave the seat vacant. I think it's something that several of us are considering, but it is way too early to make a decision," she said.
Should be interesting. My congratulations to Aubertine for his huge win tonight, inching Democrats closer to Senate control.
OK, folks. We're half an hour from polls closing. I'm curious to know your predictions, especially from the many TAPpers who spent time on the ground in the district, though I'd love to hear from everybody.
I shan't ask of this of anyone without going out on a limb myself. The GOP infrastructure in that district hasn't really had to perform in quite some time. The Dems essentially have no infrastructure up there. WFP is running field again, much like the Johnson SE last year. Turnout is exceeding most folks expectations. I think WFP absolutely deserves some credit for this. I saw them in action last year is SD-7. They're good. I trust them to be bad asses in a special election where GOTV is going to be key.
I say it's essentially a toss up, with Aubertine in a squeaker.
Many folks have emailed to ask if I will be liveblogging the results from today's special election in the 48th. My answer? Duh! Of course I am, silly. I mean, how could I not do so after our friends at Rochester Turning said that we've "been all over this race like a freakin' horde of locusts"?
I'll be here liveblogging as long as it takes, even if this thing goes really late, a distinct possibility. I hope you'll be here as well. I've got a good feeling about this one.
Want to know the surest sign that we've got an excellent chance at winning tonight? I guess you could point to the unnamed GOP Senate staffer talking about how "people are worried", but for my money, there's no better indicator than Uncle Joe himself whining about "dirty tricks" this afternoon.
Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno said he thinks some records are being set for bad form in governing and elections under Gov. Eliot Spitzer's tenure.
Talking to reporters in The Egg, Bruno looked back over 32 years in office and said unfair tactics are spilling into the 48th Senate District race: "I've been in this business a long, long time. I have never experienced the dirty tricks, the low
handed tactics that have taken place politically since we've had this administration on the second floor . . . dirty tricks, scandalous behavior, some of what's gone on out there in that district in the last couple of days really is about as dishonest as anything can be."
What is he talking about?
Pressed, he would not provide specifics.
Uncle Joe is freaking out. He knows they're in trouble up in the 48th, if not now statewide. Hell, the fact that this even a competitive race shows that his majority is certainly doomed. He knows it and so does everybody else.
This ain't Joe's first rodeo and if anyone knows something about dirty tricks, it's Bruno. I was on the ground in SD-7 last year. I saw them up close. So, spare me the faux outrage, Uncle Joe. If anything, knowing that the possibility of losing yet another seat is very, very real, he may even be prepping the battlefield for some useless legal wrangling to tie this thing up for as long as he can. Who knows? Maybe he's just a grumpy old prick who doesn't like to lose.
He's got good reason to be angry as well. He got hosed by the one note clowns he sent up there to run young Will's campaign. I guess he figured he could use this one to train up some B-teamers for November because this was a race they should be winning in a walk and he knows he's going to be playing defense on several fronts this fall. Instead, the Barclay campaign stumbled pretty hard out of the gate and ran an ugly campaign that flat out turned off many folks who probably would have lined up behind "Doug's boy" without much persuasion. They've never fully recovered. He had to send Tom Libous up there to just flat out lie to folks with BS like this:
"they'll close their ATV trails, they'll close their snowmobile trails."
Um, what?
So, I understand why Uncle Joe is so cranky. He's in deep doo doo in the North Country. He picked a lame candidate and an even worse crew to run him. He knows if he loses this one, he and his majority are for all intents and purposes done.
The fact that he, a brawler from waaaay back, is whining about "dirty tricks" on E-Day should tell you volumes about how this evening just might play out.
It looks as if the voters of the 48th are living up to their hardy reputation and showing up at the polls despite the weather. WWNY is reporting that Turnout is so far "Good to fairly significant" and the prediction by local officials that as many as 30% of eligible voters may have already cast ballots today.
Voting in the 48th Senate District was described as good to fairly significant Tuesday afternoon.
The race pits Democrat Darrel Aubertine against Republican Will Barclay.
Jefferson County Board of Elections Deputy Commissioner Sean Hennessey estimated about 30 percent of eligible voters headed to the polls as of mid-afternoon.
He said some polling places have seen "fairly significant turnout".
In St. Lawrence County, Board of Elections Deputy Commissioner Jennie Morrill described voter turnout as "good".
She said polling places in Waddington and Ogdensburg were especially busy.
Officials in Oswego County also said voter turnout appeared to be "good".
I'm very pleased to hear that polling places in Ogdensburg and Waddington are "especially busy."
We are involved in a tight, tough battle that probably feels to you like it has gone on for too long. This race has been about a number of issues and you've seen some tough tactics.
I write today to remind you what this election is really about. It is about farmers and carpenters; bus drivers and teachers; small business people and moms and dads. It's about us.
And that's why I ask you to go vote, and to get as many people to the polls as you can. Please ask your friends and relatives to join you, and ask them to ask others.
The weather isn't perfect, and I appreciate how much effort is involved. Thank you for your continued support.
With appreciation and hope for the future and for putting government in our hands.
Also an update from Danger Democrat who is working GOTV today.
As a team Aubertine footsoldier I have three machine locations to report on. All three opened on time with no problems reported. At each of them the experienced poll workers indicated the turnout is about equal to a presidential general election year. I only saw one small anomaly. The sample ballot you get to look at before you go behind the curtain didn't have the IP line on it. So, I may be wrong about expecting a depressed turnout. The roads are a little greasy but nothing that would prevent anyone from driving if they really wanted to get to the polls.
