I was just reading Liz's post on the money trail during the New York State Senate battle and whether or not personal feelings played too strong of a role on both sides of the aisle and where the DSCC's and SRCC's money went.
On the Democratic side, the race in the 56th Senate District was one that Liz used to argue her point. The DSCC spent a lot of money on Rick Dollinger. As Liz pointed out, that race was seen as a competitive one because Dolliger is a former senator and he received key backing from Governor David Paterson, who served in the Senate with Dollinger.
But was it truly a waste? I don't think so. The results of the race show that Sen. Joe Robach only beat Dollinger by 4,889 votes. Percentage wise, that comes out to a 52-48 win for Robach. It wasn't nearly a double-digit blowout that Siena showed it to be and it wasn't a waste. There are a few other factors that come into play (like Robach's cowardly way of not telling people what party he is a member of) and in the end, Dollinger only lost by a rather small margin.
Then there is the Jim Gennaro and Frank Padavan race in SD-11. This one shocked the Republicans as Gennaro is within Padavan by 723 votes at last check. Gennaro outraised Padavan and the DSCC only invested over $4,000 in that race.
So were our priorities misplaced? As someone I talked to today said, even if we do end up losing Gennaro's seat, now we have a target for 2010. The same can or could be said for other seats, even Robach's. And as always, hindsight is 20-20. We can look back on it and now and say we should have spent more money and sent more resources there or here, but it won't do any good. Learn from our mistakes this time and make sure next time we compete in other areas.
I'm not satisfied with only two pickups. I was hoping for at least three and was really disappointed that SD-56 and/or SD-61 didn't go our way. We had great candidates in both but it didn't work out. That said, there was a time when I thought SD-11 was competitive but my opinion is only from afar. People on the ground there had other opinions and I'm sure, at the time, their opinions were quite valid. But it is hard to argue against that kind of enrollment advantage in that district. If Dollinger was targeted for, among other things, his district's enrollment advantage, Gennaro's should have been as well.
But again, 2010 looks just as good. And I think we can pick up more than two seats next time with the possibility of some special elections mixed in.
It would appear Sen. Bill Stachowski's win tonight was the difference in keeping the New York State Senate. Stachowski has a 6,500 vote lead with all but 24 precincts reporting. The race is his.
Unfortunately, Democrats didn't win elsewhere. Joe Mesi fell short tonight against Mike Ranzenhofer in SD-61. Rick Dollinger lost his bid in SD-56 to knock off Joe Robach, losing by four percentage points (52-48) to the man who replaced him in 2002. Dave Nachbar lost 61-39 to Jim Alesi in SD-55 in a tough race. And Paloma Capanna, the grassroots extraordinaire, lost to Sen. Michael Nozzolio.
We also saw Kathy Konst lose to Sen. Dale Volker, although her loss should inject some hope into that seat. Volker did not win the primary in dominating fashion and this win was only by 12 points. Konst showed us something in this race for the 59th District seat.
We proved a lot here in Western New York this year and we have a lot more to prove in 2010. We showed tonight that contrary to popular belief, we do have some pretty good candidates up here. We showed that we can, even with enrollment disadvantages, compete with the Republicans and win one here or there.
In 2010, I will make a couple of predictions:
(1) Joe Robach isn't safe. It's difficult to see Rick Dollinger not win because Dollinger would have been a true reformer in the Senate. But once the money stream is cut from Robach's hands, he will be powerless. Hopefully the Democratic Senate can prove that it takes more than just member items to run this state.
(2) Start lining up for Dale Volker. I know the people in SD-59 want that seat and I will make something clear: I want that seat too. We are going to make it happen.
We may not have been successful tonight, but we showed we are competitors. We aren't pushovers and this is no longer Republican country. We will remain competitive and fight for every seat and hopefully, pick up a few along the way.
Like most people living in competitive districts, I received a ton of robocalls over the weekend supporting various candidates. Last night I got one that impressed me: Bill Clinton calling on behalf of Rick Dollinger. I didn't expect that.
So I've been working on running down the details of the infamous "black eyes" incident which befell Joe Robach last summer right before the summer special session. Here's what I know. I know the names of the woman involved as well as her Monroe County Sheriff Deputy husband, the one that kicked Joe's ass after he found the Senator and his wife in the act. I'm wary of naming them in full, especially the husband, because lord knows, it's not like he asked to have a New York State Senator make the moves on his wife.
I've also learned that he has been having promotion problems at work and that more than a few people assume it is in retribution for smacking Robach around. Honestly, I feel a pretty great deal of sympathy for the guy.
That said, here's the skinny. Janine S------ was a Robach employee. She worked for Robach until last summer. Her husband, Tom S------, is a deputy sheriff in Monroe County.
He comes home one night to find Robach and his wife in the act. Needless to say, he was less than happy about this. He and (a naked) Robach get into a shouting match that eventually leads to a physical altercation. Let's just say the deputy won. He then kicked Robach, naked and worse for wear out on the front porch and called his wife to come pick his sorry ass up.
The deputy then tells his superiors what has happened and how he just kicked a Senator's ass. He does fully expecting to be in some sort of trouble. The deputy's bosses tell him to just keep quiet about it. He does and he has done so to this day, as far as I can tell.
But, he has suffered. There seems to be every indication that Robach is making the guy's life difficult, especially on the job. I mean, like it was the deputy's fault or something.
This story has been rumbling around out there for over a year and now a number of media outlets have started to make inquiries, one even went so far as to FOIL documents from both the the Monroe County SD as well as from Robach's own office. Which one? Think John Edwards.
The local GOP committees all know about this as does Skelos' SRCC. The SRCC even went so far as to warn Robach that they would pull out of his race if this story broke. They've done a pretty good job at keeping this story at no more than a low boil for months now.
Hopefully, that will end soon.
More on the way.
UPDATE: The Robach Files has a much more interesting take and a hell of a funny (albeit fake) photo.
Phillip provided us with the Siena polling results earlier. The results showed that two Democratic incumbents - Sen. Craig Johnson and Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer - enjoy big leads while two upstate senate races (SD-56 and SD-59) have our Democratic challengers trailing.
Knowing the two upstate districts very well, there are a few things. First, in SD-56 that race is much closer than it appears. You have colleges in the district (yesterday's rally in Rochester was an example) that are energized for not only Barack Obama, but they also like this Rick Dollinger fellow a lot too. Knowing how these polls are conducted, they probably aren't able to target the youth vote. Also, I think Robach's win in Greece/Parma is overstated. He's going to win both. That goes without saying. That's his turf and he will win that area. But he's not going to win by 37 points as he is in the Siena poll.
Brighton and Rochester are going to be the keys for Dollinger and he is winning there right now. I would say that the margins of victory in those areas for Dollinger in this poll are pretty close to what they will be on Election Day. But I would watch for the Greece/Parma numbers on Nov. 4. That is where the difference will be made. If Dollinger can make it fairly close in Greece and then win big in Brighton and Rochester, Dollinger will win.
And if you want a sleeper, watch what Kathy Konst does on Election Day. Volker lost the Erie County portion of this district on Primary Day. Konst is a conservative Democrat who could win this district. Jumping six points in the poll and holding Volker at the same number he came in at last time could mean that this is a race. Keep an eye on this one. There are a lot of people sick of Volker's dirty tricks and tactics and that might play right into Konst's hands. The extreme negativity Volker has utilized might work against him on Tuesday.
There are a lot of questions heading into Tuesday. Luckily we won't have to wait long for the answers.
The new Siena Polls on four state Senate Races are out this morning and it is a decidedly mixed bag.
7th SD - Nassau County - Craig Johnson (D, incumbent) vs. Barbara Donno (R)
Johnson has a 50-35 percent lead over Donno, down from a 49-25 percent lead in the previous Siena New York Poll. Johnson has the support of more than three-quarters of Democrats, while Donno has the support of more than two-thirds of Republicans. Johnson has a nearly two-to-one lead among independent voters, 50-28 percent, up from 36-24 percent in the last poll. Donno's overall gain in the poll comes largely from Republican voters, where she went from leading 47-28 percent, to now leading 68-19 percent.
Johnson is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 28 percent of voters (36-17 percent last poll). Donno currently has a 29-23 percent favorable rating (16-9 percent last poll).
...
37th SD - Westchester County - Suzi Oppenheimer (D, incumbent) vs. Liz Feld (R)
Oppenheimer has maintained a large 64-29 percent lead over Feld, down slightly from 61-24 percent in the previous poll. While Oppenheimer has support from 88 percent of Democrats, Feld is only winning among Republicans 64-30 percent. Oppenheimer has a better than two-to-one, 59-28 percent, lead among independent voters. Oppenheimer leads in every region and with virtually every demographic group.
...
56th SD - Monroe County - Joseph Robach (R, incumbent) vs. Richard Dollinger (D)
Robach leads Dollinger 52-39 percent, edging up slightly from 49-38 percent in the last poll. Robach has the support of 84 percent of Republicans and 34 percent of Democrats in this district with a large Democratic enrollment edge. Dollinger has the support of 55 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Republicans. Robach leads among independent voters 56-37 percent, up from 46-34 percent. Dollinger leads by 11 points in Rochester and eight points in Brighton, however, Robach leads 67-27 percent in Greece and Parma.
...
Obama has a commanding 61-32 percent lead over McCain.(!)
Volker has a 50-39 percent lead over Konst, down six points from the last poll, when he led 50-33 percent. Volker has the support of three-quarters of Republicans, while Konst wins among Democrats 60-28 percent. Konst now leads among independent voters 47-40 percent, after trailing with these voters 43-28 percent previously. Volker has a small three - point lead in the Erie County portion of the district and a large 23-point lead in the Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming Counties portion of the district.
Much, much work to do. If you are in or near the 56th or the 59th, now is the time to get off the bench. I still think that the Rocbach/Dollinger race is going to turn largely on the Obama GOTV effort. Obama leads McCain 2-1 in that district and the urban parts of Rochester are going to be key. If you are anywhere near there, now is the time to get involved. This is a winnable race, folks.
This morning I posted about a possible FOIL request by a "supermarket tabloid" into the infamous "black eye" incident last year involving Joe Robach. I have been able to confirm that this story is indeed true and that the same entity, a national publication you know quite well, has submitted not one, but two FOIL requests to learn more. The requests were made to the Monroe County Sheriff's Office as well as to Joe Robach himself. Given that the targets of such requests are made known of them and the fact that one of these requests were made to the Senator's own office, maybe some enterprising journalist should ask him about it. And they shouldn't take "I don't know what you are talking about" as an answer because that's just simply not true. He knows. They all know.
Another source tells me that the requests caused quite a stir in both the Robach camp as well as the GOP's Senate Campaign Committee and that a number of different media outlets have been looking into the story. The same source also says that the SRCC told Robach weeks ago when the these FOIL requests were made, that if a story about this broke, they would pull out of his race altogether.
There's more to come and I'm working this one hard. I'll just say that what I've learned so far is pretty damn troubling.
Local watchblog The Robach Files says that they have learned that a FOIL request has been submitted for documents related to the semi-legendary "Black Eye" incident.
My very good friend from way back is a republican. We've been friends since 10th grade, so I have long since forgiven them. They are fairly tight in the Monroe county GOP. They'll vote for McCain I guess, but they've never liked Joe Robach. Well they just called and let me know that Robach and the local republican brain trust are freaking out because a "supermarket tabloid" (I guess that means a national one like the Enquirer) put in a FOIL request to learn more about the infamous "Black Eye" affair.
They say Robach is all pissed off and yelling at people. Sounds like Joe to me.
I wonder if a story will come out before the voting starts?
I'm not sure what documents they are seeking, but I would imagine that they have to do with the husband of the woman involved. The versions of this story that I have always heard say that the woman, (who was a Robach staffer, btw) was married to a sheriffs deputy and that the deputy immediately reported to his superiors that he'd knocked Robach around a little after catching him in the act. There probably is a paper trail there somewhere and I'm assuming that's what this reporter is looking for. Also, the source says that it's a "supermarket tabloid" that is doing the investigating here. I can't say that I know of any such publications that aren't national. Anyone know any different?
Is there any way to confirm that a FOIL request has been made?
Rochester, NY- On Wednesday, October 29th, 2008, United States Senator Hillary Clinton will appear at a Get Out The Vote Rally in support of Democratic candidates Rick Dollinger (NY State Senate 56), Alice Kryzan (NY-26), Dan Maffei (NY-25), and Eric Massa (NY-29). This event is free and open to the public, but space is limited so please arrive early. Press instructions below.
Over the weekend, we received reports that something fishy was going on in the 56th Senate District. Reportedly, volunteers for Sen. Joe Robach were going door-to-door telling voters to vote for Barack Obama and "Democrat" Joe Robach.
Today, Rick Dollinger responded to these reports and immediately called on Robach to set the record straight.
"Over the past several days my campaign has received numerous reports from within the city of Rochester and the town of Brighton alleging that Robach campaign volunteers have been going door-to-door in predominately Democratic neighborhoods asking voters to vote for Barack Obama and, much to my surprise, 'Democrat' Joe Robach.
This goes far beyond the typical dirty tricks we have come to expect from Republicans. And, I find the Robach campaign's general disregard for voters appalling. Chalk this one up as another malicious attempt by State Senate Republicans to deceive voters in an effort to hold onto their slipping majority.
This deliberate manipulation lends further evidence to the argument that Republican Joe Robach will do whatever it takes to win, even if it means deceiving the same community he so frequently boasts his dedication to.
I am demanding that the Robach campaign immediately put a stop to this fraud, and that in the final days of the campaign we return to talking about the issues that matter to our community."
It is a manipulation, but throughout this race Robach has avoided calling himself what he is: A Republican. If he can't be honest to the voters about his party affiliation, how can the voters know he is ever telling the truth?
This is a real battle in the 56th Senate District. Rick Dollinger is giving Sen. Joe Robach a run for his money - literally and figuratively.
In the figurative sense, this race is tight. There is one interesting factor in this race though. If you look at the chart below, you will see that Dollinger has considerably more individual donors than Robach does. Robach leaned more on unions that have been friendly to Republicans, PACs and party committees for his money. Both candidates have also received a considerable amount of their money from transfers in by their respective state senate or state party committees. Take a look at the chart below:
Just a quick note: You will notice asterisks next to Dollinger's "In-Kind" money and Robach's Expenditure/Refunds section. The In-Kind payments made to Dollinger were listed as expenses in his filings because they were used to pay staff working on Dollinger's campaign. The refund listed in Robach's section was a total of two contributions that were refunded back to two different groups.
There is going to be plenty of money spent on this race in the coming days. I was told by someone involved in the race a number of months ago that this race would see both candidates spent $1 million. It's looking like they will come close or possibly exceed that number.
Our differences with Robach are on issues. He opposes abortion rights (with some exceptions), favors the death penalty, and voted against a state law prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation. Democrat Rick Dollinger is a solid progressive who impressed us when he held this seat from 1992 to 2002 - and not just on these litmus-test issues. He is a smart, thoughtful student of government who would provide an important voice, for the district and the state, in a time of enormous challenges.
The City generally endorses Democrats (they endorsed Nachbar, Massa, Kryzan, and Maffei as well), but the endorsement of Dollinger over Robach is important since much of Robach's district lies in the city of Rochester and Robach counts on a high proportion of Democratic crossovers to compensate for the fact that the district is overwhelmingly Democratic.
So says Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee, as quoted in a New York Times piece on politics in Western New York. The piece is worth a read, though nothing in it will surprise real political junkies.
I watched the debate after the fact and it was really clear to me who the change candidate was. That was Rick Dollinger. Robach stuck to his pro-business talking points. He even resorted to aligning himself on multiple occasions with Democrats, a clear (or not-so clear) attempt at trying to win over members of the party that make up a larger part of the district. He made a number of references to Governor David Paterson and made at least one mention to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo when he took credit for working with Cuomo on setting up Project Sunlight.
Robach also used the same old Republican talking point about New York City and Democrats over and over again. That was a main theme of his whenever he would answer a question.
On taxes, he stressed that he supports both a tax cap AND circuit breaker - an interesting position that he has stood by even when many are split over both of those proposals. He believes (and believes correctly, in my view) that a tax cap CANNOT work without the circuit breaker. Remember - a tax cap won't lower your taxes by itself. It just caps the amount that your taxes can be raised. The New York Timessummed it up best:
Under the commission's preliminary proposal, counties, towns and school districts would be allowed to raise property taxes by 120 percent of the consumer price index or 4 percent each year, whichever is lower. Breaking the cap would require approval by at least 55 percent of the voters in a given district. And those districts that increased spending by less than the cap would be allowed to use a portion of the difference in future years.
In other words, instead of being able to raise your taxes by about seven percent a year (that has been the norm), taxes could only be raised up to four percent every year.
My favorite part of the debate was when the candidates asked each other a question. Listen to Dollinger's question to Robach and then listen to the beginning of Robach's response. He says that there is "good change and bad change." That was a bizarre line to me.
Dollinger won the debate. Dollinger is way too intelligent for Robach. Dollinger has a great grasp on the issues and when it comes to reforming Albany, not too many people (including sitting state senators) can match Dollinger's desire to change Albany and his plan for reforming the state Legislature. It's easy to utter the word "change." But it's another to propose ideas. People like ideas. And I think people will end up liking Dollinger and wanting him to be their state senator.
If you are in the Rochester area, you should come on Saturday to a rally for Rick Dollinger, who will also be holding a grand opening of his campaign headquarters at 530 Thurston Road in Rochester.
Here is the invite:
I will be there. Hopefully I see some of you there.
It looks like abortion will be an issue in at least one senate district this year as NARAL Pro-Choice New York has started to run an ad in the 56th Senate District against Sen. Joe Robach, a conservative Republican who is anti-choice.
Here is the ad:
NARAL Pro-Choice New York didn't give Robach a nice review for his stance on abortion. This is what they had to say about this ad and Robach's record on abortion:
On October 14th, NARAL Pro-Choice New York released a television spot in Monroe County exposing Joe Robach's seventeen year anti-choice voting record in Albany.
In his time in Albany, Joe Robach held an 83 percent voting record with the Right to Life Committee.
He voted to block poor women from receiving support to pay for abortion care and has sided with the most extreme anti-choice Republican elements.
Joe Robach would vote to outlaw abortion and treat women like criminals.
Kelli Conlin, President of NARAL Pro-Choice New York stated, "Joe Robach is spending a lot of money to try to convince the people of his district that he is an advocate for women. But the truth is he's dangerously out of touch with the women of Monroe County. Time and time again, he has chosen to side with the most anti-choice forces in the state legislature. He would vote to make abortion illegal and to treat women like criminals. We want women to be aware that Joe Robach doesn't represent them when it comes to the important issue of keeping abortion safe and legal."
Dollinger has made women's health issues and abortion key issues in this campaign. Below the fold you can find Dollinger's women's health plan that he unveiled last week.
It's nice to see NARAL Pro-Choice New York doing this for Dollinger. Going after Robach on these issues is a must because it really highlights what he's all about. He's a conservative Republican and he has been hiding that fact throughout this campaign. This ad is strong and paints Robach as the anti-choice candidate he is.
A reader writes in about our post on the Democrat and Chronicle piece on Joe Robach's and Jim Alesis's use of taxpayer-funded mailers:
The story was interesting and useful, and credits go to Jill Terreri (the writer) and the D&C for running it, but it was incomplete -- as was the quote in this post. The $35k she mentioned being spent by Alesi was, she said, the figure from October 2007 through March 2008. That's only a 6-month period, and NOT during campaign season. The problem is the mailers sent in the last 60 days, during his campaign, which we estimate cost taxpayers at least $100k, and more likely closer to $200.
The core problem is actually even bigger and more complicated than just mailings. The Senate runs pretty much like a Republican reelection machine. The internal rules for taxpayer funded mailings, which change frequently and are almost impossible to find in writing, are skewed heavily in favor of Republican incumbents.
The abuses extend into other campaign areas. Here's a little-known anecdote that I heard from sources unnamed that indicates how the machinery can work. In the 2006 campaign to defend Republican incumbent Nick Spano in SD-35, Senator Bruno, who controlled the purse strings, authorized an abrupt upsizing in Spano's staff, the hiring of an additional 18 staffers, who were then sent into the field as canvassers. Spano, if I understand the data correctly, won reelection by 418 votes.
It would be extremely interesting to track the staffing levels for incumbents on a month to month basis, and map it against the reelection campaign cycles.
And of course, that's not to mention member item handouts, no doubt all to good causes. These are actually a major, crucial tool in the "reelection machine" toolbox. Who's going to vote against Santa Claus?
This is the latest ad from Rick Dollinger's campaign. It's a very positive ad and shows how Rick will be "working for you" when he heads back to Albany.
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