A source tells me that Assemblyman Tim Gordon has expressed interest in the seat. Assemblyman Gordon is an interesting figure in state politics. He is the only Independence Party member in state government but sits with the Assembly Democrats. He isn't the biggest name mentioned on the Democratic side, but it is one worth noting.
One name I didn't include earlier was Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. He already has his eyes on this seat, but that's nothing new for Tedisco. Tedisco, who is a Republican, probably sees this seat as a great chance to get to Washington D.C. He has talked about running for higher office (Governor) in the past, so this was expected. We will have to see if he goes through with it.
And as Liz reported earlier, Carol Schrager has officially declared her candidacy for the 20th congressional district seat. Schrager is a Democrat and is the first one to make anything official about running for this seat.
According to Democratic and Republican Party insiders, there are nine names being tossed around as potential candidates for both sides. There also might be a few to add to this list.
The Democrats are Coxsackie Town Supervisor Alex Betke and Saratoga County Democratic chairman Larry Bulman. Both are in the district and both are considered grassroots leaders. There is also talk about getting Tracey Brooks or Darius Shahinfar to move in the district and run for the seat. Brooks and Shahinfar both ran in the 21st congressional district Democratic primary, only to lose to eventual winner Congressman Paul Tonko. Mike Russo, who ran for New York State Senate in the 43rd Senate District and also serves as Rep. Gillibrand's district director, is also being mentioned as a possible candidate.
On the Republican side, it looks like four names are being considered for the special election. Sandy Treadwell, who ran and lost in November to Gillibrand, is being considered for another run. Treadwell has money, which puts him in a great position if he wants to spend his way to Congress. Also, 2006 Republican gubernatorial candidate John Faso is being tossed around as a potential candidate. Faso would make an interesting candidate and would have some level of name recognition from his run in 2006.
The other Republicans being mentioned are both state senators. Betty Little and Roy McDonald are also contenders. If either of those candidates run, that puts the New York State Republicans in a position where they must defend another New York State Senate seat. For the Democrats, that would not be a bad thing. Little represents SD-45 and McDonald represents SD-43. The enrollment advantage in both favors the Republicans, but with a strong Democratic challenger, we can win.
The Democrats would have an enrollment disadvantage in NY-20. As of November 1, 2008, Republicans have 196,118 registered voters to the Democrats' 125,486. But there are also 118,364 blanks, which could make this race interesting.
This is not going to be easy. It is an uphill battle for us. But considering the new U.S. senator will be the former representative for the seat, that might help get a Democrat elected. We will have to wait and see what kind of role Gillibrand will play in the special election for the seat that helped get her to this point.
Fat cat GOP challenger Sandy Treadwell has a new TV ad up on his site. The spot is titled "Broken" and it is very aptly named. Take a look and see if you can see what I'm talking about.
I don't want to toot a Republican's horn, but this is a lot of signatures.
Sandy Treadwell has turned in over 11,000 signatures for the Republican line and an additional 728 and 1,368 signatures for the Conservative and Independent lines, respectively.
Sandy Treadwell wants you to know people really, really, really like him. The candidate needed 1,250 signatures from enrolled Republicans to get his name on the ballot in September. He handed in 1,295 pages of signatures, approximately 11,000 signatures. According to Treadwell's spokesman, Pete Constantakes, Republicans are excited about him and want to show their support.
That's a lot of signatures. I don't think I have seen a number that high so far with all the petitions turned in. (NOTE: As noted in the comments, NY-13's Mike McMahon got 11,000 too.)
One of them is Sandy Treadwell, the leading Republican challenger in the contest in New York's Capital Region over Gillibrand's seat.
Treadwell has written checks totaling $948,800 to his campaign, according to disclosures filed with the FEC. Treadwell's spending means that his Republican opponents in the primary election already can take advantage of higher limits on contributions.
If Treadwell wins the Sept. 9 primary and funnels more than $350,000 of his personal cash into the general election campaign against Gillibrand, the millionaires' amendment would kick in and Gillibrand could accept larger campaign contributions than the law otherwise allows.
Even then, Gillibrand might not benefit from the campaign finance law because of her own fundraising success. The law cuts the other way and the higher limits on campaign contributions do not apply when a candidate's fundraising is so successful that it offsets the wealthy candidate's personal contributions.
Anticipating a tough re-election fight, Gillibrand has raised $3.1 million for the general election contest. This war chest could offset Treadwell's personal spending, which means that she could only accept the smaller campaign contributions set by law.
Gillibrand's recent filing shows us two things: (1) She is not desperate for money. (2) She is one of the more well funded candidates in the entire country.
The Millionaires Amendment would certainly impact this race, but I think more in the primary than the general. Even with his millionaire status, Treadwell is behind Gillibrand in money. He might have a huge money advantage in the primary, but in the general, his wealth is not enough.
Alexander "Sandy" Treadwell, the self financing challenger to Kirsten Gillibrand for New York's 20th CD, has apparently already spent in excess of $350,000 of his own money on the race, triggering the so called "Millionaire's Amendment." The amendment in FEC regs raises the contribution limits to the opponent of candidates that contribute large amounts of cash to their own campaigns, though, given Gillibrand's own prodigious fundraising, it's not clear to me that contribution limits to her campaign would actually be raised. If they were, she would be able to accept contributions up to $6,900, up from $2,300. (Any help from election law types who can make sense of this would be greatly appreciated.)
The fact that Treadwell has tripped this particular wire so early in the cycle essentially reinforces the already solidifying perception that he is trying to buy this race and has little to no grassroots support in the district.
Deep pocketed Republican challenger "Sandy" Treadwell is on the air in NY-20 already. He's begun airing this spot even though the election is a year away.
It's a competently made, if not fairly generic spot, and surprisingly good for a first effort, though the candidate himself is about as telegenic as bag of kitty litter. Also, it's true that residents in and around the 20th pay some of "the highest taxes in the nation" though the state and local governments are responsible for that distinction, not the feds. I'm not exactly sure what Treadwell would do about local property taxes from DC.
Freshman Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand continues to raise money faster than any other freshman in the House and raised more money in 3Q than all four of her announced challengers combined. Gillibrand raised over $600,000 dollars in the past three months and has over $1.6 million cash on hand. That's simply astounding.
U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Greenport, had $1.6 million on hand for her re-election campaign as of Sept. 30, more than the combined total of four potential Republican opponents in the 2008 election, according to new campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Gillibrand raised $601,777 in the third quarter and spent $127,614.
Wow. What about the challengers? Well, Sandy Treadwell may have to spend a lot more of his own money than he planned on. He raised about $482,000 and has about $631K cash on hand. Oh, and about $314K of that $481K came from...Sandy Treadwell.
Richard Wager raised about $31,000, including a loan of $35,000 to himself and has about $161K cash on hand.
Michael Rocque raised about $53K and has about $57K cash on hand.
Hapless John Wallace raised a paltry $1,400 in the previous three months and has $3,688 in the bank.
The race for this seat will be brutal, but Kirsten once again shows that she's playing for keeps.
Today's New York Times contains part 3 of their yearlong series, "The Freshman", chronicling the first year of rookie Rep Kirsten Gillibrand. (See also upstateblue's diary here. This installment discusses many of the challengers already lining up to take a shot at Kirsten in 2008 as well as the fact that the GOP may well use the race in NY-20 to test drive campaign themes to use in other targeted races around the country. More on that later.
It may seem unusually early for the opposition to begin mobilizing against Ms. Gillibrand, who only recently wrote and introduced her first bill since arriving in Washington four months ago. But the maneuvering reflects a growing confidence among Republicans that they can win back the district, where the vast majority of voters are registered to their party.
Indeed, Republican officials in Washington are so confident of Ms. Gillibrand's vulnerabilities that they say they intend to field test an array of themes in the district that they believe can be applied to other freshman Democrats around the country.
It looks like Kirsten Gillibrand is likely going to need every bit of that $668K because there's probably no way that she will outspend her likely opponent for the 20th Congressional seat, Alexander "Sandy" Treadwell. According to the Albany Times Union, Mr. Treadwell has officially filed his paperwork with the FEC and has even opened a "working office" in Saratoga Springs.
Former New York Republican Party Chairman Alexander "Sandy" Treadwell has filed papers with the Federal Election Commission to challenge U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand for Congress in 2008.
Treadwell, who lives in Lake Placid, filed to run for the 20th Congressional District seat on Monday, FEC records show.
He served as Gov. George Pataki's as secretary of state and later as state GOP chairman, a post he held through 2004.
Treadwell recently set up his first campaign office on Broadway in Saratoga Springs, and he plans to open additional offices across the district soon, according to campaign officials.
It's only April of 2007, but things al already heating up in New York's 20th Congressional District. At least two Republicans are making preliminary moves to challenge freshman representative Kirsten Gillibrand. The Glen Falls Post Star has more:
Richard Wager announced Monday he has filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to establish the "Wager for Congress Exploratory Committee."
Wager, a Republican, said he will hold a fundraising reception with "just family and friends" in his hometown of Hyde Park on April 14.
"I'm excited to continue traveling the district listening to the hopes and concerns of its residents," he said in an e-mail to this reporter.
Wager, son of the former publisher of The Poughkeepsie Journal, currently is heading a technology upgrade project for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration.
Wager is one of several candidates weighing a possible challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Greenport, next year.
Alexander "Sandy" Treadwell of Lake Placid has said he plans to establish an exploratory committee soon.
Treadwell represents New York on the Republican National Committee.
...
Former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso of Columbia County, state Assemblyman Roy McDonald, R-Saratoga, and former U.S. Rep. John Sweeney of Clifton Park also have been mentioned as possible candidates.
I've always thought that Kirsten would hold this seat and now it looks even more certain. This is the best that the GOP can do? And, yeah, by all means run Sweeney again and really make it a party...
I know that I am late to the party on this one and it has been discussed elsewhere, but I also know that there exists a robust cadre of Gillibrand boosters around these parts as well. I'd love to hear what you think about this. From the Adirondack Daily Enterprise:
Alexander F. "Sandy" Treadwell, a leading state Republican, longtime supporter of and aide to former Gov. George Pataki and now chairman of the newly formed Lake Placid Regional Winter Sports Committee, confirmed Wednesday that he's considering a run for Congress in 2008.
His opponent, should he choose to run, would be Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Hudson, who will mark her 40th day in the House of Representatives on Friday. She defeated incumbent Republican John Sweeney in the November election.
...
"I'm very interested in possibly doing it," Treadwell, a part-time resident of Lake Placid, said Wednesday. "A lot of people have talked to me about it, and I've talked to a lot of people."
Still, he said, despite a number of encouraging conversations with prominent North Country Republicans, he's not in the race yet.
"I'm not at the decision point," Treadwell said, "but I am interested."
Treadwell served as Pataki's secretary of state in the 1990s before becoming chairman of the state Republican Committee in the early part of this decade. He's currently a member of the party's national committee and is considered, like Pataki, to be a moderate. He also maintains a home in Essex.
Other than the obvious, what's the real scoop on this guy?
